Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Forbidden Apple — Tue, 19 Feb 2013 01:25:10 GMT

Cold Facts,

Thanks for the research, but I stand by my opinion and I'm allowed to have one. Just look back at the 2nd and 3rd place finishers behind Bernardini in his wins. You cherry picked a few of his offspring. To Honor and Serve was a nice horse, I'll agree with that. Are you really impressed by Stay thirsty winning in 1:35? Consortium, come on man he is an average horse at the Big A. His potential at 2 and 3 turned into a bust. Tapit is the superior sire in my opinion.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Rinzler — Mon, 18 Feb 2013 20:58:22 GMT

I'm only looking at two for now.

The one Steve is looking at: Balance The Books, but like he said, only if he can take to dirt.

The other is Uncaptured.

It seems pretty wide open, but these are the two I am willing to take a stand with right now.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Forbidden Apple — Mon, 18 Feb 2013 18:10:14 GMT

Ranagulzion,

Since when do I need your respect in my life? You are simply irritated because I am not over the moon whith Verrazano. And you threw the first punch, I am only responding to your comments. You are in denial and not being honest here. You claimed both Eskendereya(2010) and Uncle Mo(2011) to be Triple Crown winners in February. And both times I called you out when you made these claims. And both times you were miserably wrong. I am 100% sure that someone else on here besides me remembers your bold statements (Derby Dozen blogs and Shandler blogs). I don't have the time or the interest in trying to find old blogs. Just man up and stand behind your comments, everyone makes mistakes. This game is based on opinion when handicapping a race. Even last year I said that Gemologist was the best Pletcher horse, and you did not agree. This year I am on record saying that Violence is the most dangerous Pletcher horse. Why do you care if I do not fancy Verrazano? Please stop letting your love affir with every Pletcher horse cloud your memory.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 18 Feb 2013 17:25:27 GMT

“The reason black caviar and zenyatta can put those long steaks together, is the fact that they don’t have to go all out"

What a bundle of malarkey!

There have been many horses that have had long winning streaks with some being undefeated that were fully extended in many their races

The likes of Peppers Pride and Personal Ensign are examples of mares that had to run hard on many occasions.

Couldn’t it just be that Black Caviar and Zenyatta are exceptional horses?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 18 Feb 2013 16:25:11 GMT

Forbidden Apple,

"Both Bernardini and Tapit had weak racing careers in my opinion.”

There is no point comparing the careers of Bernardini and Tapit. To determine if Bernardini’s career was weak, I have outlines a comparison of the 3YO careers of the respected Madaglia d’Oro and Bernardini.

Madaglia d’Oro: 8th in Preakness, 2nd Belmont; 1st Jim Dandy, 1st Travers, 2nd Breeders Cup Classic.

Bernardini: 1st Preakness, 1st Jim Dandy, 1st Travers, 1st JCGP; 2nd Breeders Cup Classic.

Bernardini was never of the worse than second in his grade stakes career. Madaglia d’Oro was of the board in the Preakness. The great Invasor defeated Bernardini in the BCC while Madaglia d’Oro was defeated by Volponi who never recoded a G1 victory before or subsequent.

I could have done a comparison with several other horses but the above example should be sufficient.

It is unlikely that Madaglia d’Oro’s 3YO career would be considered weak. It therefore stands to reason that the cold facts do not support your above opinion.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Mon, 18 Feb 2013 15:59:37 GMT

Actually wondering who even reads these late posts to the blogs anyway, but I will keep on posting.

Ok, regarding a quick take on last weekends wrap up, “Capo Bastone” and “Offlee Fast” dueling in the slop continually only a nose a part for nearly ¼ furlong was interesting to watch. “Shakin It Up”; “Treasury Bill”; and even “War Academy”--in only his 2nd start all in at around the discussed 1:22.50 figure--with “Shakin’” finishing for the win at 1:22.48,--all remain high on the my watch list.--And, I still can’t toss out “Mudflats” just yet on his breeding alone.--Another Pletcher trainee running in the slop at Gulf Stream Park ‘wire to wire’ in a 1 1/8 Msw, “Abraham”, additionally moves up higher on my watch list. And, I still have no take on “Manado” or “Carving” who are rapidly now falling, and where it appears like “Carving” may be little more than just a good “Allowance” horse at this point and not a real Derby threat, and re “Manado”, I just have no idea,--with so many tries with the horse and so little to show from one ‘bred foreva’.

However, the run that impressed me the most this past weekend was turned in by a little 3 yr. old filly out in Santa Anita, “Judy in Disguise”,-- … “with glasses”, ...“come to me tonight…come to me tonight”...--where if I got the fractions right,--not sure that I did,--she ran her first six of six-and-a-half furlongs in 1:06.19 !!! finishing off her last panel in 6:06 for a 6 ½ fur. run in the $75 Sweet Life Stakes coming in at 1:12.25, which is just a plain awesome a number. Where I rather somewhat quickly jotted down these fractions thereafter,--where they don’t leave the screen up long enough to do better,--being at: … :21.28; :43.32; 1:06.19; 1:12.25 !!!, which to me, is just simply amazing!!! So, she gets rather rapidly added to my filly’s Oak's watch list.

But oh boy, here we go, the real major preps to the real majors, “the Fla. Derby”; “the Wood Mem.”, and “the SA Derby”, and, etc., all start this coming week with first-off, the reappearance of “Violence”, whom--I imagine many that didn’t follow the 2 year old trail accept on maybe the Breeder’s Cup days--likely many haven’t even ever seen this colt yet. But, it was his debut maiden win over “Titletown Five”,--I believe,--up at Sar. last summer that had this horse immediately garner my attention as one to keep a watch on then. And, in fact, after looking up his breeding way back then, I decided that he would be my horse for the year that I would gauge all other newcomers against breeding-wise in a comparison for distance. And although, many following have graded out higher for ‘distance’, his is my model standard.--And again, its not all in breeding, but much is, where a horse still needs natural speed and intelligence, proper training, much luck, and a kiss from the Gods.--But, I had decided way back then that others would have to match or be near to, or would have to be rated higher than he was, being where that he was the horse that I was going to gauge my distance comparison around right then and there, and that all so, being, to compare the rest that would come out following him against, and especially being where that that maiden run was made at 7 fur. and not at some 5 ½ fur. or such of a lesser distance. He has impressed speed-wise and winning every time out thereafter also increasing his distance and Graded moves upward, although in my eyes somewhat oddly having circumvented the BC Juv. races. And, secretly he was my early favorite. In fact, I was mildly disappointed when both Steve and Watchmaker at DRF made him their #1 pre-season picks even over the likes of “Shanghai Bobby” and “Itsmyluckyday” after the Holy Bull back nearer the turn of the year. But, yes I have been awaiting his next run. And, even though to be made against a larger field with some real stiff competition lining up--and all so, after a bit of a short winter layoff,--I will make the effort to go see him and can’t wait to see him again hit the dirt. Although, he will likely come out at near un-betable low odds, where I may just watch and just be happy with the 13-1 I got him at in Pool #1. He has to this point simply been a pleasure to watch and to route for, and having been the first added to my watch last year, he remains a high favorite for me with his Kentucky Derby hopes.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 18 Feb 2013 15:46:21 GMT

Forbidden Apple,

“I see big slow grinder types coming from Bernardini, who now stands for $150,000.”

Below are some of the big slow grinder types that have represented Bernardini.

To Honor and Serve: PA Derby NST - 1:47.34; Cigar Mile 1:33.89

Stay Thirsty: Cigar Mile - 1:35.47 Defeating BC Sprinter Groupie Doll

Wilbourne: ALWOC; 1 70yrd - 1:39.89; MSW 6 1/2F 1:13.95

Buffum: Bold Ruler 7F -1:21.68; ALWOC 8F 1:34.34

Algorithms:; MSW , 5F- 57.55; ALWOC 6 1/2F 1:15.51

Demonic: MSW, 7F – 1:22 and a bit

Consortium: ALWOC 6F - 1:09.78; MSW 6 1/2F - 1:17.10

The above cold facts do not support your forecast regarding the offspring’s Bernardini.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Sun, 17 Feb 2013 23:33:30 GMT

For a lack of races, my list remains unchanged.

Violence, Transparent, Vyjack, Itsmyluckyday, Shanghai Bobby, Verrazano, Revolutionary, and Tiz the Truth. Oh, and Goldencents. I forgot Valid.

By next week, I'm certain everyone will have something to say about Dice Flavor. Beat some decent colts, easily. But, tapeta? We'll see.

Medaglia d'Oro colt looking for distance...Violence has Gone West on his dam side...and that's what counts.

The Southwest is tomorrow; I'm certain another colt will spark more conversation.

And Royal Delta was as regal as ever, winning again. Now, off to Dubai.

I don't like to see a horse that has to be pedaled all through a race to get 10f...but..that's exactly how Mike Smith got Drosselmeyer to the wire ahead of Game On Dude in the BC Classic. It happens. Some horses need to be constantly ridden, but I still don't care to see it; I think it's very exhausting.

Congrats to Black Caviar, again. She may be a sprinter, but she has a very long, efficient stride. It's such a please to watch her move. Perhaps that's the edge that puts her on top of the world, even when she's "down under". (How do they ever find horses to run against her?)

And finally, I'm sending prayers to the beautiful Rachel Alexandra. I feel so terrible for her, and I hope she pulls through stronger than ever.

Now, I'm off to watch the San

vincente.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Sun, 17 Feb 2013 22:52:33 GMT

Forbidden Apple,

When attempting to malign a fellow blog poster such as I, use quotes if you want to be credible. I guarantee that in all the archives of my submissions to the Bloodhorse blogs you'll never find me saying that Uncle Mo or Eskendereya or any horse for that matter, was better than Secretariat. As for El Padrino and Algorithm both are AP Indy line colts and everyone who reads these blogs knows my reservation about these horses as 3YOs. Try being honest and truthful in your counter arguments ...that way you'll earn some respect.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

KY VET — Sun, 17 Feb 2013 18:23:09 GMT

Johnny......the reason black caviar and zenyatta can put those long steaks together, is the fact that they dont have to go all out.....they are much the best, and NOT all out........

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 17 Feb 2013 16:05:34 GMT

Santa Anita is running an n1x conditions race with G2 status and $90K to the winner today. Six winners of only their maiden races are entered. Three of them have tried stakes company before and only one was placed.

Are there not enough n1x races for trainers to find out how their colts stack up against winners? Do they have to pitchfork them directly into stakes races? Or is that only a preference?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Forbidden Apple — Sun, 17 Feb 2013 14:52:00 GMT

Both Bernardini and Tapit had weak racing careers in my opinion. As a stud, Tapit is far more accomplished and brilliant. Their racing careers are not as important now that they receive the best mares. I see big slow grinder types coming from Bernardini, who now stands for $150,000.

Ranagulzion,

You are clueless every year when it comes to picking winners. Do you remember calling Uncle Mo and Eskendereya monsters that were better than Secretariat! And then El Padrino and Algorithms, on and on. Verrazano is a nice horse, let me know when he wins a Grade I.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Sat, 16 Feb 2013 18:38:09 GMT

Vetky your posts pinpoint you as a member of the independents, possibly a left winger who will vote nay on the Apollo Creed.This board is chock full of way right conservative Apolonians.Going forward we will win.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Johnny — Sat, 16 Feb 2013 17:50:56 GMT

It aint easy Draynay use to say alot,LOL.

KyVet Was Black Caviar sharp for all her wins?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Sat, 16 Feb 2013 17:42:04 GMT

Good Girl Rachel,

Hang tough, your little lady is going to need you more than anything! She'll pull through everyone, she always does:)

Going with Manando today at GG. He's ready to bust out big.

Like Sky Commander to hang close enough to a contentious front end today and get them. Think Offlee Fast, Duke of M, and Edge of R will zoom off to lead. One may last but that is when Sky C digs in and steals this one. Using Taking by Storm, Finn and Capo to run behind speed running second.

4 with 1,2,3 with 567 with 567. Tri and super.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sat, 16 Feb 2013 14:30:14 GMT

Forbidden Apple

“Who did Bernardini ever beat”

He defeated the fields that were assembled in the Preakness, Traverse, Jim Dandy, and Jockey Club Gold Cup. It took an older horse that won six consecutive G1s and unbeaten in the US to lower his colors in the Breeder Cup Classic. Bernardini’s rider was motionless in the saddle en route to recoding times of 2:01 for the Traverse and Jockey Club Gold. This colt could have easily gone below 2:00 in each race. Many top rated horse achieve these times while fully extended.

He was rate Co-World Champion 3YO. This rating was achieved based on the nature of his performances and not based on those he defeated.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sat, 16 Feb 2013 06:39:50 GMT

Ranagulzion,

"This colt is a potential monster"

The last monster that was sent to the Tampa Bay Derby was War Pass and he bit the dust.

You classified Uncle Mo, Quality Road, Union Rags as monsters. You need to insert the word potential in front monster. All good horses look like monsters when not against their peers.

I will take the maiden Footbridge over your monster any day.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

KY VET — Sat, 16 Feb 2013 05:12:49 GMT

HI RANAG.....i dont think its about being a great trainer or not....those horses improved too much......MOTHER NATURE will take these horses down. If there is a fault, its in racing in jan. or getting them too good too early....thats not a bad thing, the derby is not everything.....when a horse gets as sharp as itsyourluckyday, you cant take him down, then bring him back up.....ranag, the best thing about verrazzano, is hes going to the tampa bay derby....semi weak prep race....what you want, is another easy win....not all out, not too sharp......just fast enough to win.....................

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

KY VET — Sat, 16 Feb 2013 02:52:59 GMT

It aint easy....they better do that, its their only chance....btw, 8 weeks off for top class horses, is not too long.....for derby, 6 is perfect....

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

KY VET — Sat, 16 Feb 2013 01:35:47 GMT

Johnny......i used IHA as an example, of a horse that was ALMOST an exception...the diif. was, he wasnt running too sharp. His beyers were not TOO good....AND the layoff was Brilliant move by the trainer. AND....those GREAT races put stress on the horse.......That is why horses get injured......You dont wanna squeeze the lemon dry too early! Trust me...........

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Sat, 16 Feb 2013 01:14:34 GMT

KY Vet,

I appreciate yur explanation for discounting the chances of Itsmyluckyday and Oxbow but I think that you're underestimating the respective trainers of these colts. You correctly highlighted the training feat of Doug O'Neil with IHA last year but why overlook the savy of Plesa and D. Wayne Lukas?

Forbidden Apple,

I can tell you right now that you're cluless regarding Verazzano. This colt is a potential monster ...you will change your tune after his facile victory in the Tampa Bay Derby. The only question about him is the 10 Furlongs, based on pedigree. I'm sticking to Overanalyze, Violence and Itsmyluckydy as my top three Derby pick for the time being but all of the above are under threat from the super classy Verazzano.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Johnny — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 17:36:53 GMT

Ky Vet:

IHA was sharp but not really sharp huh?

So please tell me the line in the sand that makes you sharp or really sharp?

If he did not get hurt he may of well won the Triple crown we will never know.

Did 50-1 Giacomo or Mine that Bird come in sharp? Were they really the best horses in the race?

That day they were.

I say they run the race for a reason and that is the beauty of betting this race we are all after the same thing the BIG SCORE.

If we hit we are the best handicapper in the world for that day.

We walk around the house with our chest puffed out crowing about how I new it.

My biggest hit?

I played a up and down Exacta on Pioneer of the Nile it was a nice place finish for him.

Good luck to all and may everyone's angle work for them,especially mine.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

It aint easy being good! — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 17:21:13 GMT

KT VET your post confuses me. So lets say that both Oxbow and itsmyluckyday run one more race before the derby and take a 8 week layoff they have no chance??? I will always remember what Draynay used to say the clock doesnt lie. Who had the fastest prep last year on dirt??? yep it was Ill have another guess who won the derby sometimes it is that simple!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 17:15:50 GMT

Hmmm …the 7 fur. Gr. II San Vincente; SA--which sends no points to the winner toward the Kty. Derby, much like the Gr. II 7 fur. Hutcheson GP sent none??, strange exclusions, regarding which maybe they should run both during the lame ass 2nd week in Feb. next year and in future years and allow them some POINTS toward the Derby, huh?, anyway,--sees these 5 Derby Nominees among the 6 entrants with each looking to see where he might rate this time of year and adding some experience to each... with Baffert entering half the field ,--3 of 6 !!!--

Baffert’s 3 in ...

"Shakin It. Up", --rated a bit lower but within the distance acceptable variance range I have attributed to “Violence”--my standard and my own scale--...though this isn't a distance attempt...-- and whom Blood Horse says ‘he the likely to be favorite off of his 2 yr. old efforts’... then Baffert also throws in the highly awaited…

"Belvin", --although with he rated well below my standard for one’s ability to get 1 ¼ --... and finally there is also the much long anticipated 1- 1-0-0 …

"War Academy" --rated way over “Violence”,--my standard gauge,--and being one I have been awaiting for, for quite a while... and then there is the highly toted …

"Treasury Bill" --rated right up there along side of “Violence”--… but woohoa ...look out for this other one who is rated for the Belmont and caught a sloppy track his last time out at Belmont in fact, in …

"Mudflats", --whom after some look up research rates out higher--for me--than any Colt that I have looked into yet thus far this year, thusly being where if he doesn’t qualify for the Kty. Derby, keep him in mind come Belmont time whether he can handle this crowd at 7 fur. or not…

So, it will be interesting to see where this interesting collection finishes up after 7 furs. However, any of these higher rated distance boyz that finish anywhere near the top within say chasing some respectable 1:22.50 over the synthetic surface will make their additions to the Derby chest that much more interesting, thusly making that "Pool #1 “Field” bet also look more enticing. And, this all so, with many having said that there was a ‘weak crop coming out of CAL. for the Derby this year’. Looking pretty deep right here !!! and that all so, especially with Baffert’s likely additions also coming out of the El Camino Real and that also excluding “Flashback”. Thusly, I for one can’t wait for the rest of the ‘left coast’ preps or the SA Derby !!!

However, this race should be way too difficult for one to figure out how wager on it,--warning do not base waging on my evaluation of a horses accessed by me breeding rating suggesting he is bred to go longer--but taking notes from this one might be valuable. However, don’t overlook this race when looking for that elusive DERBY or even that down the road Belmont winner. And again, remember being bred for ‘stamina’ and ‘distance’ has nothing to do with running some great one turn or no turn 7 fur. sprint well, where straight speed and ability kill !! and will produce a winner from any well bred ‘miler’ type. It just means, that if there is a runner who can handle good competition such as this and is one rated to go longer, he is thusly one to keep an eye on. And, these “teenagers” all still have plenty of time to grow before May the 4th no matter where they finish up in this race that will again earn them NO points toward obtaining a gate slot in the Kty. Derby.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 17:07:51 GMT

Mr. SOS,

“But how many 2yr old champions have won in the last 20 yrs? one? two?.”

It is suggested that you know the answers to the questions you pose or your follow up statements will be very embarrassing.

The following Champion 2YOs have won the Derby: Riva Ridge, Secretariat, Foolish Pleasure, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Specular Bid and Street Sense.

“ why is this? You breeding people always think it’s the distance thing.....the reason is, racing super sharp, for that long, is very, very, rare”

If champion 2YOs have won the Derby seven times how rare can it be? Champion 2YOs Chiefs Crown, Easy Goer, Forty Niner and Timber Country finished either second or third in their respective Derbies. Are you attributing the losses to a lack of sharpness?

The Kentucky Derby is the most difficult race to win and your flawed theory is not where near the reason for the losses of champion 2Yos that make the gate.

If you meant to specify Breeders Cu Juvenile winners instead of champion 2Yos, then then here are some colt facts.

2YOs that participate in the Breeder Cup are in most case the best available for the race unless some connections choose not to start their top colts. How many 2YOs that have exited the BCJ have won the Derby? While only one BCJ winner has won the Derby, four losers have worn the roses i.e. Spend A Buck, Alysheba, Sea Hero and Mine That Bird.

Are you suggesting that only winners of the BCJ are incapable of staying sharp until the Derby?

Chief’s Crown and Timber Country won the BCJ and finished 3rd in their respective Derbies. What percentage of sharpness did they lose heading into the Derby?

If you are going to blow you own horn you should at least know the tune.

NB: I have repeatedly requested that you do not refer to the supporter of these blogs as 'You People'