Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Mon, 25 Feb 2013 18:22:32 GMT

Jersey Boy: Since all colts carry the same weight in the Ky. Derby, it would only be common sense that the preps should run at equal weights also. I agree with you there.

These are not handicap horses; these are 3 year-olds, youngsters in a tough game. Their bones and muscles are still forming no matter how big they might seem. They are still immature, and have not, as yet, learned to protect themselves from the rigors demanded.

Jay Jay: you said "There's just no more durability in these young horses and doesn't look like anyone cares anymore." I totally agree. Why is it that globally horses run 3 and 4 miles, but in the USA, we call 12f a marathon?

By breeding for speed alone, we've lost the durability and the essence of the Arabian.

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 25 Feb 2013 17:48:37 GMT

KY VET,

It’s is unlikely that you know what is the true measure of a man as you have discredited your gender over the years with your policy of disrespect and posts that are void of any meaningful information. I challenge you to be a man an post an extract from any of my posts that questioned the exclusion of Footbridge from any of Mr. Haskin’s DD. If you are incapable of providing this evidence, you are required do the right thing and either retract you statement or put my position in proper context. I hope the aforementioned request is not too complex as you have given indications that you are seriously challenged in comprehending the written word.

“but orb hasnt won the kentucky derby”

Why bother having an exchange with someone who doesn’t know what a proper noun is and that it should begin with a capital letter no matter where it occurs in a sentence. Mr. Haskin is a brilliant writer and it is clear you have not taken any time to observe the standards he has maintained. He leads by example and you dishonor the gentleman’s blog with the crap you submit in the form of English. It is not surprising as only one lacking in self-respect finds it so easy to disrespect others.

You are a pathetic soul!

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Steve Haskin — Mon, 25 Feb 2013 16:23:09 GMT

(What follows will be posted on today's new Derby Dozen blog) I must preface this with the following comment. I cannot monitor every post that comes on here. That is the moderator's job. I try to help out as much as I can. So, once in a while an inapproprate post might find its way on here. If I see it after the fact I will delete it. Considering we are dealing with the Kentucky Derby and not politics or religion, future posts with name calling and anything insulting will not only be deleted, but the person writing it will have his or her future comments deleted as well, regardless of their content. This blog is meant for the exchanging of ideas, opinions, and friendly debate (I emphasize the word friendly). Anyone who wishes to engage in improper comments can take them somewhere else. There are plenty of free-for-all blogs out there with no restrictions. I realize this is directed at only a small fraction of the people who post on here, but ground rules must be set if this is going to be a blog people enjoy coming to.

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Steve Haskin — Mon, 25 Feb 2013 16:21:38 GMT

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Pedigree Ann — Mon, 25 Feb 2013 14:35:05 GMT

Chief -

Funny Cide didn't prep SOLELY at Fair Grounds, but he did run there, finishing second in the Louisiana Derby to Peace Rules, who was also right there at the wire on Derby Day.

Two years ago, Nehro and Mucho Macho Man were 2nd and 3rd in the La Derby, and the year before, Drosselmeyer was third in the same race. How many were ship-ins, I do not know.

I still believe 2002 La Derby winner Repent would have been a horse to reckon with in Kentucky if he had not been injured in running second to War Emblem in Chicago.

Don't forget, Grinstone won the La Derby in 1996 before winning in Kentucky.

Local hero Risen Star had help from the prayers of an order of nuns in NO, who got a cut of his earnings. No luck in the Derby, but much thereafter.

The La Derby was 1 1/16 up from 1988 until 2010, so some of the more recent La Derby winners have been miler types - Pyro, Friesan Fire (his dam was a sprinter Down Under, people - I tried to tell folks that), Circular Quay (his mum was a sprinting 2yo), High Limit, etc. And until very recently, most horses stabled there went on to race one more time - in Chicago, Keeneland, or New York, before running in the Derby.

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 25 Feb 2013 09:22:24 GMT

Johnny,

You are the latest supporter of Mr. Haskin to attack me. Under no circumstance would I feel it necessary to classify you as an ass even if you left no doubts. I am respectfully requesting an apology as you have crossed a civility line. Whether you are aware or not, by disrespecting a supporter of Mr. Haskin, you have by extension disrespected him. If my comments were deemed offensive they would not have been posted.

I merely provided some colt facts that supported a contributor's belief that Orb should not have been excluded from the latest DD.

In what way did I offend the gentleman?

Do you consider the contributor who questioned Orb exclusion an ass as well?

Mr. Haskin could have overlooked the colt facts I provided.

It is inconceivable that so many rude individuals can support such a classy gentleman and not learn from him. His mass of supporters that have displayed a lack of civility in their quest to defend his honor are unknowingly dishonoring him. Who would want to be surrounded by individuals that do not have the capacity communicate their disagreements in a civil and respectful manner?

I have chosen not to be rude to any of Mr. Haskin’s supporters as I consider it a polite and civil policy to observe. However, this policy is not practices by many. There are those who feel they have the market cornered on rudeness. However, what they do not realize is that they are out of their league in this department as I have compile a vocabulary specifically for rude individuals but chose not to waste it on those I consider unworthy.

You Sir, are one such individual.

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Davids — Mon, 25 Feb 2013 06:30:38 GMT

Steve from st louis, you have totally missed what I wrote. Lasix dehydrates the horse, it takes them longer to recover - hence less races. Re-read the article snippet :)

Pedigree Ann, I think it may be another poster you are responding to. :) thanks anyway and I agree with you.

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

KY VET — Mon, 25 Feb 2013 03:34:55 GMT

I DONT like ORB for the DERBY!

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

KY VET — Mon, 25 Feb 2013 03:05:31 GMT

maybe its just me......but orb hasnt won the kentucky derby.......coldcuts is excited because he hasnt picked a winner in a year,,,questions the top 12 because a mdn winner is on it, but wondered why his footbridge , who hasnt won a race wasnt on the list......and........the pletcher horse barely got beat right?....so, why the spouting off?

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Mon, 25 Feb 2013 02:50:58 GMT

Orb still needs to run one more race to guarantee a spot in the Derby. There's currently 16 horses in the standings that has 10 points or better and there's 13 races where the winner gets 50 points or better. So, he's the talk of the town today but then again, it was the same with Itsmyluckyday when he won a race that was worth 10 points. Lots of time before the derby, half the field probably hasn't even run a race this year.

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Mon, 25 Feb 2013 01:41:55 GMT

It is just tragic to hear about “Violence”. My best wishes to Black Rock and connections and all involved and I offer my sincere hopes for a speedy recovery. But, the grind always seems to have its yearly casualties and yet, life goes on.

*******

In any event, Steve, I don’t think this coming week’s “dozen” should now reflect your original list at all, so please evaluate thoroughly before posting the next for our reviews.

Let’s first start with any horse that ran in last year’s BC Juv., where once before I stated, that “I wasn’t impressed with anyone from that race”. First of all, undefeated “Shanghai Bobby”,--who is not bred to go long,--ran a slow 1:44.48 and not some 1:41.50; to some sub-1:42.99; that we might have been more impressed with. Secondly, the horse he only beat by “a head” who trailed him down the stretch by “a head” to the finish line, has gone on to finish out of the money +9 to “Violence”; out of the money + 6 to “Flashback”; and out of the money plus more than + 9 ¼ to “Orb”!!! And, even “Speak Logistics”,--who is bred to go longer and ran in both those races--finished a dismal + 7 plus back to “Orb”!!!… And, I have already told you why “Normandy Invasion”,--having no links to the “BHXFG” strains,--has no place in anyone’s top 20, forget the top 12 !, --unless he possibly could have pulled off some freakish “Bellamy Road”-“M C Dreams” type of a run against that weakish Risen Star field where more evaluation my have been required, But, he didn’t !!!.--

Furthermore, turf runners “Crop Report” and “Tesseron”,--other former hopefuls,--also failed to impress this weekend.

But yes, to all of you “Orb” supporters, I guess he made his case for serious consideration, even in defeating an ailing champion. And it is my opinion, that at this point there should not be a ranking of the coveted “dozen’, maybe just a listing of some top twelve and let the bloggers vote on their favorites? Or, go ahead and rank you favs as you do for the magazine and still let us vote. It would be interesting to see just where the consensus opinion of the group is at this stage now with no “Violence” in the picture, which is also good advice to contributors to this blog, “no Violence”!!!.

*******

Sub note: After the FOY, few probably took little notice of 12th race at Gulfstream Park, being a rather small $50K 1 Mi. (T) Msw. However, in the finishing top 3, there are 3 live horses in my opinion to keep a future eye on. The winner in 1:36.00; flat, Chad C. Brown’s trained “Market Outlook” by “Lemon Drop Kid” is bred forever, and so is the 3rd show-finisher in Linda Rice’s trained “Summer Shine”, who is improving steadily and finished only a head and nose back for 3rd. But, the horse that “placed” in this fascinating sandwich was “the million boy”, Todd Pletcher’s trained “Forever Thing”, who finally got on the track for his 1st time ever. So keep your radar up awaiting the next appearance of any of those Pool #1, “field” ‘live long shots’.

***********

Sub note to Slew:

I didn’t post much at all last week, as I was doing my usual looking up of 60 plus odd horses entered that I haven’t YET researched more deeply besides the other life’s responsibilities. HOWEVER, I looked into all for the FOY and all for the Risen Star and in the Risen Star no one accept “I’ve Struck a Nerve” ranked above “Violence” and only “Departing”,--a non-derby nominee who was later scratched,--was within my ‘25 point variance range of acceptability’. And hey, “I’ve Struck a Nerve”--in you--didn’t have to run that great, his past performances certainly weren’t sterling, I just NOTED TO MYSELF without time to tell the world--who I do bet against btw--that he was appealing to me ‘breeding wise’ alone. And btw, I cashed triple tickets in every other 3-year-old race whose breeding that I looked up the breeding on, on every horse also. That being, accept for that one race THE RISEN STAR, that I only in fact played exactas in, because frankly, I didn’t like the race choices, the field was weak, and the only horse that was bred for distance looked real sucky on paper. But, then again, I was once told by a fellow bettor, “they don’t run on paper, they run on that there track out there !!!.

***********

Folks, it is my opinion that we have only seen the tip of the iceberg. Remember that there are some 400 of some 4,000 out there just trying to get one of 20 gate slots for this the “Daytona 500 of horse racing”. So, stay tuned and stay on board the ship to watch for more. We might be assuming that we can at this stage somehow place the top contenders to find a winner, but we may not have even yet seen him just yet. So, follow these preps closely and don’t form some over attachments to any one hopeful just yet. There is no “Big Brown”--hey brother Doug, ‘keep an eye out for a horse name of ‘big brown’”, who then went off the radar with hoof cracks,--who was that freak type of an animal, out there off of 2 runs, or some “Smarty Jones” type that can win at any distance on any surface at any track and that is also bred to go long. Thusly, we may not have even yet seen the ones that will be the favorites for Florida Derby! or the Wood ,etc., forget the Kentucky Derby. And, don’t judge so rapidly until after the Wood and SA Derby have been completed or flatly you’ll be leaving yourselves short in your assessments.

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Mon, 25 Feb 2013 01:27:38 GMT

Slew and CHIEF : If Ground Transport goes to the LA Derby next, then I think we'll have a legitimate derby contender coming from FG. His last win (yesterday's 4th race) looked really nice, I'm hoping they go to the LA derby next. He's been on my watch list way before his first race, now he's got two wins and I think he's ready.

Like most already know, it was inevitable, just sad that Violence had to be one of them that gets hurt this year. Last year, it was Algorithm, this year, Violence. Hopefully he's going to be okay but again, he'll be part of a breeding program with less than 5 starts, he'll probably command big fees too and in 4 years, we'll start seeing his babies and will probably go through exactly what we go through each year. There's just no more durability in these young horses and doesn't look like anyone cares anymore. Oh well.

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JerseyBoy — Sun, 24 Feb 2013 23:50:49 GMT

To all those who say 6 lbs. do not make a difference, I say thank you for agreeing with my crusade. Welcome to the club.

You see since according to your approach weight does not make a difference, then let them all carry the same weight. Logical? This is my point-let them all carry the same weight.

Seriously, I believe that every pound counts. The greater the weight DIFFERENCE, the greater is the disadvantage. If weight did not make a difference jockeys would not starve to avoid over-weights of even less than 6 pounds. Further racing organizations would run all races at weight for age.

It is not just my idea. It is the Timeform method for ranking horses. It is over 50 years old.

Coldfacts:

This is a blog. If I commented on everthing, I would be blogging all day. There are lots of soccer matches on weekends.

Why do you not just comment on what I did say, such as my money on Pool 1 is on Itsmyluckyday.

Finally, weight is the great equalizer. That is how the handicap system works. For me to have to explain why weight matters, would be for me to have to explain why 122 pounds is a greater burden than 116 pounds. As a boy I was told such things are truisms.

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Sun, 24 Feb 2013 23:13:15 GMT

The Fairgrounds dirt track reminds me of the AW track at Keeneland,once they make the turn for home if one or two horses are not dominant and have separated from the field, it seems like more than a handful have a chance deep stretch, whoever excelerates best in the last 20 to 30 yards wins.When is the last time a colt that prepped solely at Fairgrounds came in 1st or 2nd in the Derby,I think its been a while.There are reasons for this, but I will keep my thoughts to myself, wouldnt want to start discussion back and forth on this because it will be your opinion vs mine and it will end in a stalemate.

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Sun, 24 Feb 2013 22:31:02 GMT

Johnny: 24 Feb 2013 8:38 AM

Thank you for that. I'll buy the 2nd Guinness.

Zarvona: In all your previous lengthy posts, how come you never mentioned Ive Struck A Nerve until after he won? After last year's La. Derby, I just don't buy the Fairgrounds form any more.

And now we know...Orb didn't win because of a weight advantage; he won because Violence was running on a broken leg. What a heart!

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

hirize — Sun, 24 Feb 2013 21:32:47 GMT

Thanks Coldfacts you are spot on!

Mr. Haskin:

With all due respect, I don't think I'm genius but I questioned your top 12 for many reasons but Orb had kept good company, although he had not won a stake he deserved some press. No one gives this horse credit and after your statements you still don't.

The excuse now is Violence was moved to quick into a fast pace and it cost him the race. Well my take is that he beat 7 other horses doing the same thing except Orb, which means it took a good horse to beat Violence despite the move. Had Orb not been in the race Violence would have won by 5 and called a "Super Horse".

Will you just finally give this colt some credit for being well bred, well handled and well meant. You can ride the Pletcher train all you want and crash, but Orb has now beat his top 2 stars. He deserves respect! Let's hope he makes your next list, it would not take a genius to add him now!

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

steve from st louis — Sun, 24 Feb 2013 20:41:32 GMT

Davids, you lost me. If lasix benefits the animal, making racing and training easier for them, why would current-day trainers cut their work and race load in half? By your thinking, they would be able to train and race harder instead of the opposite. I would think the lighter scheduling is because we have allowed bleeders to reproduce, having a deleterious effect on the breed.

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Johnny — Sun, 24 Feb 2013 19:03:04 GMT

Our first one is down due to injury.

Sorry to hear,but we all new it was a matter of time.

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Sun, 24 Feb 2013 18:00:30 GMT

Violence is OFF the Derby Trail.. Right sesamoid fracture coming out of the FOY. Now I think he's even more special for having run the race he did.

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Sun, 24 Feb 2013 16:58:16 GMT

Gosh Steve, I'm glad someone else remembers Ebbets Field, and probably the Polo Grounds too!

I have to say that Orb did very well, and his pedigree is to yearn for. AP Indy and Unbridled grand sires. His stride really stretches out, and he was impressive. 12f-no problem!

On the other hand, Violence certainly did not disgrace himself, and fought to the wire. In the end, the FOY was a 2 horse race.

The Risen Star, however, looked more like a free-for-all. Anyone remember last years La. Derby and Hero of Order? 2 for 23. The Risen Star told me nothing except Normandy Invasion has trouble leaving the gate, and Code West might (might) have something.

Jersey Boy: I love Violence, but by pressing the pace, he was tiring, and I don't know if the weight difference was that acute over the required distance. In the Ky Derby, all contenders vie at 126 pounds.

Dr. D: Nice list. Don't discount Valid yet. I think he's got heart, and I'm waiting to see more from him.

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Johnny — Sun, 24 Feb 2013 15:57:14 GMT

My 2cents from the paddock of Gulfstream.

Orb was my play all along opened at 9-2, I was annoyed. 12-1 was a gift.

Horses came out to the paddock Orb was on his toes and getting worked up/nerves.

This would be a concern of mine come Derby day and something to look out for.

Violence was looking good as a Pletcher horse always does he did not turn a hair.

Majestic Hussar looked good as well.

Orb was getting 8lbs which is quite large. Would he have caught Violence with equal weight?

Simply we don't know. I think he would of though.

I believe the longer the distance the better for ORB.

As of now Orb is my Derby horse of course subject to change.

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 24 Feb 2013 15:36:59 GMT

Davids -

Afleet Alex, Point Given, Affirmed, and Lemon Drop Kid all finished second in the Champagne and went on to classic wins. It has, in fact, been nearly twenty years since a Champagne winner has won the Kentucky Derby, that being Sea Hero. (Of course, Union Rags won the Belmont last year.) You have to go back to the 1970s to find when victory in the Champagne was a reliable clue to hitting the exacta in the Derby - Secretariat (dq'd to 2nd), Riva Ridge, Foolish Pleasure, Seattle Slew, Alydar, Honest Pleasure, and Spectacular Bid. Only one winner in the interim even placed in the Derby and that was Easy Goer.

Not particularly a fan of Goldenscents, but one who knows that 2yo form is not always indicative of 3yo form. Make that frequently not, these days.

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Sun, 24 Feb 2013 15:31:56 GMT

Risen Star,

I like what I saw on the new kid. I've Struck A Nerve ran a tremendous race. Patient, determined, made his break at the top of the lane, and didn't break stride when Palace Malice drifted out into him in the lane. Dam sire on this guy say it all. He'll get the classic distance and how do you think his chances improve with a faster pace?

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JerseyBoy — Sun, 24 Feb 2013 15:19:42 GMT

Orb won in 1:42.24, after they went 6 in 1:08.85 and he took the lead.

The track record for 6 furlongs is 1:08.12.

The 3yo filly Live Lively won in 1:42.30 after they went 6 in 1:10.21.

The final time for the 2 races was almost the same, 0.06 sec. slower for the filly.

The filly received 5 lbs. Orb received 6 lbs.

The rider on Violence panicked. His horse ran the best race but was exhausted sprinting 6furlongs.

Now John Velazquez has a dilemma. Does he ride Orb or Violence or Verrazano?

Steve, do you not become exhausted by the second-guessers who make multiple statements, some of them conflicting, then say I told you so when an opportunity arises? Some of them ignore their actual prediction about the specific race.

For instance, Coldfacts wrote:

“ELMUTAHID is therefore not your typical Street Cry offspring. That said, if his trainer has placed him on a stamina enhancement program to correct the deficiencies in his last 2Fs, he will be a dangerous colt on Saturday as his running style is suited to the Gulfstream Park Speedway.”

The horse finished last, but if he had won we would have heard…?

re: Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Sun, 24 Feb 2013 15:11:14 GMT

Johnny,

I haven't a clue what your thinking but I know you deserve a Guinness and some premium oats for that remark:) Johnny 22 Feb 2013 1:34 PM