Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Tue, 05 Mar 2013 00:04:23 GMT

Pedigree Ann: I believe it was Charles Hatton who first coined the term "Triple Crown" (to save typing out the names of the races over and over)in the 1930's, but the title was formalized in 1950, (by turf writers) and Sir Barton was retroactively awarded the trophy as our first Triple Crown winner.

But the term existed long before.

England's Triple Crown began in 1853 with West Australian's win in the 2000 Guineas, the Epsom Derby, and the St Leger.

My point was that sir Barton had not won a race and was still a maiden when he entered the Kentucky Derby. He was actually entered into the Derby as a rabbit for the "star" of the stables Billy Kelly, with instructions to run Sir Barton as fast and as far as possible. Kelly came in 2nd behind Sir Barton who took the Preakness 4 days later, then the Withers at Belmont, and then the Belmont itself on June 11th.

(Sir Barton's losses at 2 were ascribed to very tender and sore feet with very thin outer shells, and special care had to be taken in shoeing which was done only with felt.)

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Pedigree Ann — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 16:15:22 GMT

I was around then, Coldfacts.

Halo's sire Hail to Reason was respected but not fashionable in that his yearlings didn't bring top dollar.

Halo had made his name as a turfer here in the States and demand for him was so low that he was originally sold to Britain for stud duty. But the Brits turned him back because he was a cribber. Another strike against.

Halo sired some top horses, but for the most part his success was connected with Canada or overseas.

Devil's Bag was an EP Taylor-bred, dropped in MD because Windfields South was there. His sister Glorious Song was Horse of the Year in Canada before she was a US champion. Sunny's Halo was Canadian-bred.

Devil's Bag was an atypical Halo in that he matured early enough to be a 2yo champion. Few other Halos were that good as juveniles in the USA. (In Canada and in France, yes but not here.) It was his prowess at 2 that got him his high syndication value. You wouldn't believe some of the horses who were syndicate for monster amounts in the 1980s.

And perhaps most of all, Halo got ugly yearlings. All legs and angles, front end not matching rear end in development, that sort of thing. No amount of sales prep was going to make them look like finished 2yos, as the others did. Devil's Bag was probably the exception because he sold well. But otherwise....,

Looking back, we can see that Halo was an important sire, but it wasn't obvious then. Raise a Native and his sons were eclipsed by Northern Dancer and Vaguely Noble in the 1970s in terms of fashionability. Things look different now.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Forbidden Apple — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 15:44:01 GMT

Ranagulzion,

Wow, what a rough prep race for your boy Pletcher. Overanalyze, another overbet average horse. With Violence out, it looks more and more like Revolutionary is his best soldier in the barn.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Closer — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 15:28:39 GMT

This saturday should be very interesting---Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby and Flashback in the San Felipe.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 12:34:40 GMT

Pedigree Ann I am aware of that, but I still think that the Fairgrounds meet does not attract the same quality of 3yos that it once did.Regarding California form, in 2009 Pioneer of the Nile ran harder than Mine that Bird to get 2nd in the Derby, which to me means California form has no question marks(1st or 2nd).I know about Grindstone, I had the winning ticket in that Derby but how many years ago was that?,back then you had trainers that focus on the triple crown sending a string there like D wayne Lucas and others,nowadays L Jones is one of the only trainers that is known to do well with 3yos and focus on the Derby still uses Fairgrounds as his winter base.I know there are others like Assmussen,but he has horses all over the country, and the world.The racing quality for the 3yo series at Fairgrounds is not the same.I wouldnt be surprised if this year they break the drought,but all of us have to make decisions, and I have not seen anything yet that would make me regard the Fairgrounds 3yo prep series any different this year.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Davids — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 06:25:35 GMT

Nothing surprised me in the Gothom!! The Wood is a whole new ball game though. Am really looking forward to Flashback's return on the week-end.

Perhaps, that Sunday Silence had to find a stud in Japan answers the question on Halo's fashionale(ness). Precocity drives the fashionablity of a sire more than most things.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Pedigree Ann — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 00:28:37 GMT

Chief P -

Until recently, there was too much time after the Louisiana Derby for the horses not to need a run before the Kentucky Derby. LA Derby was usually run in early March or thereabouts, so that horses who ran in it would usually run in the Arkansas Derby or the Blue Grass afterwards to stay sharp and fit.

It is only in the last decade or so that horses have come into the Derby off of a 2-month (8-week) layoff. And less than that since FG's management moved the LA Derby to later in the meet.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 03 Mar 2013 23:57:57 GMT

"There was one horse who had a dismal 2 year old year, never won a race. When he entered the Derby, he was still a maiden. He broke his maiden in the Kentucky Derby. He won the Preakness 4 days later, then captured the Withers, followed by the Belmont in June. It was 1919, and his name was Sir Barton, our first Triple Crown hero."

Have to disagree with you here, Slew. Sir Barton's 2yo season was NOT 'dismal.' In a typical move of trainers in those days, he was deliberately entered over his head (stakes or open races-vs older horses! yes, they did that!) to get fitness and an education, so that he could get the sizable weight allowance for maidens in THE Futurity at Belmont, the race with the largest purse in North America, 3 or 4 times larger than that of any other race. And they nearly pulled off the coup, as Sir Barton finished second, carrying 10 less than the winner. Third was the "Adonis of the Turf," Purchase, who became a powerhouse at 3.

Moreover, there was no Triple Crown as we know it in 1919. The Preakness was a 9f handicap, not a classic; it didn't even become a scale-weight race until 1924. It was only in the 1930s that a Triple Crown including the 3 races it does today came to be acknowledged. And many trainers and owners still preferred to aim for the races of the New York Triple Crown - the Withers, Belmont, and Realization.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 03 Mar 2013 15:08:01 GMT

Fugue for Tinhorns,

Well done. I hope you cashed in, even if your horse wrought havoc on half the field.

Note to self: don't bet on Aqeduct preps.

Vyjack's makes Goldencents worth a second look vs. Flashback.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Sun, 03 Mar 2013 14:18:30 GMT

Saw the strangest run from I O Ireland in HerecomestheBride Stakes. Going for the wire, some great horses lower the head parallel to the track and reach for the wire. Sea The Stars and AP Indy both had that style.

Ireland was running in the lead, and lowered her head so low, I thought she'd step on it. It looked as though she was trying to blow on her toenails to dry the the polish. Very odd style, and asking for a bad trip. Needless to say, she dropped back.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sun, 03 Mar 2013 12:52:58 GMT

Ranagulzion,

“I don't know which one TP regards as his best but from what I've been able to evaluate, Overanalyze and Verrazano are the top two in his barn.”

Overanalyze finished a creditable 5th and was not disgraced. His rider specified that he had no kick in the stretch but showed fight. He probably needed the race.

While the colt has scope for improvement and can rebound, I cannot see what made you so high on him. Very early in the DD process you made your usual wild declaration that he was the best colt on the Derby Trail. Despite cold facts presented to the contrary, your resolve regarding him remained unshakable. What the status of you resolve? Probably in Union Rags!

Is it too early to ask if you still think Overanalyze is supersedes Revolutionary in stable status?

Well, on to the Tampa Bay Derby. Let’s hope Verrazano can lands the first major Derby prep of 2013 for Team Pletcher. In a recent interview he spoke about his deep bench. Mr. Haskin in a recent Blog equated his long list of colts to an army. Is this an army comprised of paper soldiers? On paper these soldiers tower over their opponents. However, on the field of battle they are meeting more than worthy adversaries and one by one they are going down to defeat. The story is unfolding on script.

Not to worry Revolutionary will be the Super Saver.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Sun, 03 Mar 2013 05:37:51 GMT

Glad to see Uncaptured's connections went with the Spiral for his next race. Initially, they were looking at the Rushaway which did not have points. If he wins the Spiral, all he needs to do is hit the board in the Bluegrass to make it.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

robinm — Sun, 03 Mar 2013 01:53:05 GMT

Well, I think we've got a new addition to the Derby Dozen after Vyjack showed a new dimension coming from way off of the pace to win the Gotham impressively. His pedigree may not scream 1-1/4, but he was certainly motoring in the stretch and showed every indication he can go further. He's a gelding which until recently would say mean winning the biggest 3-year old stakes race in America is unlikely, but Funny Cide, and more recently, Mine That Bird have dispelled that notion. I'll be interested to see Steve's new list on Monday.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

cuba"s classic chef de race — Sun, 03 Mar 2013 00:54:05 GMT

Uncapture will be a hope to some broodmare sires historians,but the difference between him and i will have another is from the earth to the moon, i will have another broodmare sire is Arch and Uncaptured broodmare sire is Arch,the second dam of I Will Have Another is by stamina chef de race Vaguely Noble and Uncapture 2d dam is by Bold Ruckus,this is with out mesuring what their sires did at 10 furlongs,do you think i have a valid point?.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Closer — Sat, 02 Mar 2013 23:47:38 GMT

Vyjack------great closing kick in the Gotham. I like the fact that he's a gelding and already has banked close to a 1/2 million.It would be nice if this horse turns out to be a real good one and stays around a while.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Sat, 02 Mar 2013 21:39:14 GMT

Plodderman:

I took your advice and watched the replays of, you say, Revolutionary getting left at the post. Here's what I saw.

First start: Rev is post #3. #1 broke sideways, charged #2, drove #2 off R's shoulder and past him to crash into #4, at which point #7, the eventual winner, took advantage of this pileup to cut across in front of the field, closing the door.

2nd start: Rev #9, #8 breaks outward and falls to his knees under R's nose.

Race #3: Rev breaks a little warily.

Race #4: Rev breaks perfectly.

Race #5: (Withers) Rev is #4, #2 falls on his head but doesn't hit Rev or roll under his feet. Rev is pinched pack but not impeded. From his run through the pack, he has not been intimidated by all these threatening events around him.

I see Valasquez, a consummate horseman, schooling him to keep his cool, find his stride, "never mind them just leave them behind."

I see him mustering a brilliant burst after chasing a sprint pace. What he hasn't shown me yet is how long he can sustain that move off the moderate pace he's apt to meet going a distance. Orb has shown me this ability. Rev, not yet.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Sat, 02 Mar 2013 18:28:55 GMT

For instance, sales preparation methods (steroids, e.g.) might compromise young horses. They look mature and ready to start training at the expense of BEING mature and ready to start training.

Just speculating. And comparing muscle development with horses I know were grass-oats-hay reared.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Sat, 02 Mar 2013 18:17:28 GMT

PEDIGREE ANN:

I noticed top-10 Keeneland sales yearlings were not represented on anyone's Derby trail, and upon checking found they were also not represented in anyone's winning circle.

There are ways to rationalize this, but none of them disprove the thesis that breeding for sales and breeding to race are significantly different goals.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bacon26 — Sat, 02 Mar 2013 18:10:00 GMT

I thought Itsmyluckyday was #1

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Sat, 02 Mar 2013 15:52:08 GMT

I must admit that Revolutionary has a spectacular pedigree, and his works are great, so he must be watched along with I've Struck a Nerve.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Sat, 02 Mar 2013 15:42:45 GMT

El Kabong and Johnny, thank you and I'm happy that you both reviewed the race and agree with me. El Kabong, I love Freisan Fire and really thought that he would win the Derby. I don't think he was the morning line favorite to win it, but I think he was the post time favorite. I'm going to the Fair Grounds next week to watch I've Struck a Nerve work.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Sat, 02 Mar 2013 15:36:25 GMT

Chief Piccawinna, Grindstone won the Louisiana Derby and Kentucky Derby in 1996.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 02 Mar 2013 15:04:51 GMT

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

My agonizing continues. Because I feel like I should put my money where my mouth is, and because it's hard for me to pass on a race I've handicapped I'm making this bet:

$18 WPS Escapefromreality

This doesn't require me to make a decision on Overanalyze, no do I have to decide which of the McLaughlin entries to pick. I don't think both Escapefromreality and Vyjack can hit the tri, so I'm staking on the former. In any case, those exactas I picked earlier depended on beating both Overanalyze and Vyjack, and I'm not willing to to do that.

But because I can't help myself, and because I tend to split the baby, I'll put the remaining $6 of my budget on:

3,8,11 boxed tri.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 02 Mar 2013 13:55:50 GMT

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

Re: Louisiana -- Things can change from year to year. We had a weak California circuit for most of a decade until last year produced monsters. I have the same prejudice against Louisiana races that you do, but I'm keeping an open mind -- above all, I'm entertaining the possibility that these horses didn't run their best races on that surface, or in that stretch, and could bounce out with big efforts elsewhere -- even if the Louisiana Derby itself doesn't translate into Derby success. And for that pattern other commenters can provide plenty of examples.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sat, 02 Mar 2013 13:44:08 GMT

JayJay,

Ground Transport:

I have review the video of his maiden victory and I came to a similar conclusion about him that I had about Proud Strike and My Lute. The colt is just not fast enough right now to be competitive in graded races.

While it is always unwise to rush to judgment about these developing youngsters, he left no impression that he has the goods.

Amerigo Vespucci:

I know you are a big fan of this colt and he has certainly done enough to warrant your continued support. However, are you aware that he finished only 4L ahead of the maiden and second time starter Champion Boy in the Withers? Champion Boy has to return an improved colt for what will be his third start.

Now and Then, Transparent and Elnaawi all recorded impressive MSW victories ahead of the Gotham. Now and Then easily defeated Champion Boy before his Withers effort.

Using Champion Boy as measure, If Amerigo Vespucci was only able to beat him by 4L with his troubled and wide trip, it is unlikely that he will able to repel the challenges of the McLaughlin trio and others.