Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JerseyBoy — Mon, 11 Mar 2013 13:31:43 GMT

Davids:

Forgive me for taking his holy name in vain.

I do agree Seattle Slew was unique. He is the only one.

However, he ran the KY Derby in just 2:02.2

I do not know what the Track Variant was, but 2:02.2 can be matched.

I did not say that Verrazano is already equal to the Slew.

But

“Hope springs eternal in the human breast”

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Davids — Mon, 11 Mar 2013 01:42:54 GMT

JerseyBoy !! You have hit a nerve, "He looks like a bigger and more relaxed version of Seattle Slew," "sacré bleu."

Revisit Seattle Slew's "Flamingo Stakes" - this is why there is only one undefeated Triple Crown Winner. There are no comparisons.

Verrazano may be a promising horse but Seattle Slew would have destroyed the impostor.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 11 Mar 2013 01:32:50 GMT

By the way, congrats to those who espied classic potential in neophyte Hear A Ghost: I did not.

Another neat War Pass showed up at roll call though. Anybody seen any good War Pass fillies?

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 11 Mar 2013 01:29:38 GMT

COLDFACTS:

You're not getting it.

Around 25% of all horses at stud in the U.S. are descended tail male from Mr. Prospector.

Half the studs in the U.S. with more than 100 foals per crop are descended from Mr. P.

On a quick read of these signs, it can not be ruled out that 50% of our classic prospects are descended from Mr. Prospector, and it is therefore not surprising that quite a few classic winners are. It's by default; you don't breed much else.

When you add to that the export in droves of other bloodlines and the failure to import the world's leading bloodlines . . . . if not now, soon. In the entire U.S. there is not a single son of the world's leading sire of sires, Danehill. There was naught but modest, belated interest in Sadlers' Wells, before and after El Prado was brought over.

Sadler's Wells claim to fame for a decade or so was as the answer to a trivia question: what stallion has sired the most Breeders' Cup winners?

It's not a classic, I know, but nobody seems to recall that a Storm Cat stallion sired very recent Breeder's Cup Marathon winner Man of Iron.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

krizda — Sun, 10 Mar 2013 20:14:35 GMT

I like Palace Malice. I don't have any fancy facts and figures to back up my choice (though it is great that he is getting recognition and is thought to have a decent chance) I like him because I've been following Curlin's first crop since last year and I would love to see a colt from his first crop make a name for himself. Palace Malice is Curlin's best chance for the derby or any other Triple Crown race because he's basically Curlin's only "stakes level" colt mature enough this early in the year. Curly Top has been mentioned as a derby nominee but he hasn't run since early this year though i believe he won that rave if i remember correctly. A large portion of Curlin's colts didn't race (or even workout) at 2 so in that sense they seem to take after their sire and we probably won't see much out of them till later in the year.

Curlin has several fillies looking to get into the Oaks. Countess Curlin and Blue Violet may have the best chance there. Blue Violet did not do well in her first starts last year but has improved a lot and is now graded stakes placed. Countess Curlin has a good record and is Curlin's first stakes winner.

Anyway, it's nice to the "cream" of his first crop rising to stakes level racing it will be fun to see if any take after their sire in more than just growth rate :-)

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sun, 10 Mar 2013 17:43:40 GMT

It takes 105 to win the Derby!

Amazing!

The highest Beyer's for 17 past Derby winners cited by one contributor included 7 <100 and only two at 105. Therefore 15 did not attained the requisite phantom Beyer of 105.

Are horses that have not attained a Beyer of 105 excluded from the Derby field?

Well my learned friend you have certainly enlightened use as to what it take to win a Derby?

Your insightfully input is invaluable!

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sun, 10 Mar 2013 17:32:54 GMT

Flashback:

He ran a courageous race but was exposed as not being a wonder horse. I think this race is likely to set him back. The internal fractions recorded while going head to head with a very fast opponent is not good for a colt making its third start. He is a Tapit and they have proven to be very temperamental and soft. One tough race and they can go off. Tapizar and Joyful Victory are prime examples.

As cited in some of my previous posts, the internal fraction recorded in the Bob Lewis were pedestrian and Flashback’s impressive win should have been taken in proper context.

Despite his loss he is still being regarded as a monster by a particular contributor. This is not surprising as said contributor hailed Dunkirk as a rising Star after his defeat in the Belmont. I guess eventual Champion 3YO Summer Bird was a non-factor.

A monster that has been slain is a dead monster. The focus should now be on the monster slayer.

There are those that will blame Flashback’s loss on his rider’s decision to engage Goldencents in the first 6Fs that produced wicked fractions. If Flashback was a monster/freak as proclaimed, said fractions would not be a factor. I contend the outcome of the race would be no different.

Hear The Ghost running style and PPs suggest that he would be formidable in two turn races. I cited in a previous post that he was not a sprinter. He closed to be 1 1/2L second in race at 6F completed in 1:08 and a bit. The 6F fractions for the SF were 1:09 plus. There are no fractions that could have been recorded to stop HTG as he would have been second best if not for Mr. Gomez inexplicable error.

The terms monster and freak are loosely used to describe certain horses in each new crop. If a horse’s achievements has not either equaled or superseded those of past champions, why are these accolades being bestowed prematurely?

Have we not seen enough Uncle Mo’s and Union Rags’ in the past?

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sun, 10 Mar 2013 17:24:16 GMT

Mary,

Aren’t you being a bid unkind to the Raise a Native/Mr. Prospector legacy?

There will always be issues with inbreeding especially if it is too close. I do not believe said issues are unique to Native/Mr. Prospector.

“Take a look at the pedigree of Eight Belles, an accident waiting to happen.”

Unbridles Song’s offspring’s are known for breaking down. This is common knowledge in the industry. The Tapits are not far behind.

The Raise a Native/Mr. Prospector has been associated with winners of 51 Triple Crown races and over 100 top three finishers. I consider the Triple Crown to be the ultimate test for 3YOs and if this line was producing a trailer load of fragile runners, how do you explain its success at these grueling distances?

The requirements for young developing horses to run at 30 MHP over distances between 8F and 10F, will invariably result in injuries.

No sire line associated with reducing thoroughbreds to lesser beings would be capable of the level of worldwide success achieved by the Raise a Native/Mr. Prospector sire line.

I think your statements do a disservice to the most dominate line in TC history.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sun, 10 Mar 2013 16:57:33 GMT

I must confess that despite my love for Hear The Ghost I wagered more on Tiz A Minister.

I am GG fan and I won a lot on the colt with my man up in his last start. He looked magnificent in the paddock and I suspect would have won if not for a judgmental error by GG.

Approaching the top of the stretch he had the room and the option to go inside and save ground but chose to needlessly take the colt six wide and that cost him a victory and my exacta.

Mr. Patrick Husband was at his worst in costing me a lot of money as well. For a rider with his experience it is inexcusable what he did with Pyrite Mountain.

How can these riders turn victory into defeat with such bad decisions?

Unbelievable!

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JerseyBoy — Sun, 10 Mar 2013 12:35:34 GMT

Both of the major Derby preps were won by horses receiving weight.

Flashback would have won at level weights.

Verrazano would still have won even if he carried the top weight.

He looks like a bigger and more relaxed version of Seattle Slew. The question now is whether he will be effective at 12 furlongs.

Pletcher should send him straight to the Derby. If the horse needs work, he can simply put 140 lbs on him and work him over 9 furlongs. Racing on dirt hurts horses.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 10 Mar 2013 04:48:08 GMT

Slew

Thank you, thank you very much. I think I found my main rooting interest. So far anyway.

KY VET

I probably misunderstood what you were saying but what I am saying is that Vyjack getting a 93 Beyer does not mean that he can't win The Derby. Derby winners have gotten similar speed figures at this point and won The Derby. We all have our reasons for liking and not liking horses to win The Derby. For me, a 93 Beyer at the early stage he earned it wouldn't be the reason I would toss a horse from contention.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Alex'sBigFan — Sun, 10 Mar 2013 04:30:27 GMT

And Verrazano does step it up in the Tampa Bay Derby! He did not even look winded in the gallop out. Very impressive looking colt.

Verrazano Bridge toll now 15.00, even more than the G.W. Bridge. Attaboy Verrazano!!!

Pletcher must have been evasive when asked what is next for Verrazano? I guess he'll cross that bridge when he comes to it!

Pedigree Ann,

Why not a Henny Hughes offspring winning the Derby? Henny was a geat sprinter, resides at Sheikh Mo's Darley USA where no "slouches" reside. Henny's a descendent of Secretariat, look at his pedigree (by Hennessey) and if bred to a mare with distance why not a Derby winning offspring, why is it so farfetched? Henny was amazing and a fan favorite in New York. I saw him several times in the flesh at Belmont Park. His color was uniike any I have seen, it was as if they sprayed him with 24K gold. He is a rich coppery, reddish, gold color and it gleamed in the paddock in the sun.

Other stuff:

Rydilluc, it was told to me, was bred for the dirt so there is dirt potential despite his last great efforts out on turf.

Now that I've heard the Ghost loud and clear my list is:

1. ItsMyLuckyDay

2. Revolutionary

3. Vyjack

4. Verrazano

5. Orb

6. Shanghai Bobby

7. Rydilluc

8. Palace Malice

9. Hear The Ghost

10. Goldencents

11. ???

12. ???

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Davids — Sun, 10 Mar 2013 00:11:25 GMT

Flashback learnt a few things today, the extra weight may have cost him the race or perhaps he didn't "Hear" the Ghost come running. Still, it was an exciting prep for the Santa Anita Derby - that's the real test. Even so, Hear the Ghost was very impressive today.

Verrazano was exciting to watch in his win but can he rate? Perhaps there are more questions than answers with his win today. Have been keeping an eye on Mr Palmer and he ran a nice race today.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Sun, 10 Mar 2013 00:00:25 GMT

DrD: Nice call. Hear The Ghost sweeps past the dueling leads to win the San Felipe. Flashback doggedly keeps 2nd, Tiz A Minister comes from last to grab 3rd just ahead of the tiring Goldencents who dueled with Flashback midrace.

But you must admit...still the best looking horse on the track was the lead pony for Goldencents, my Lava Man.

And Tiz A Minister was not too shabby either. He was handsome, and really covering ground in the final furlongs.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

KY VET — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 22:18:32 GMT

Dr. d.....what is your point? it takes at least 105 to win the derby......not talking about preps....

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

myntjulius — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 18:51:54 GMT

I for one am very disappointed to see that the triple crown races keep falling to lightly raced horses that after winning, so often are never heard from again. Where are the battle tested champions of old that gave the fans a hero to cheer for for entire seasons?? I refuse to believe that thoroughbreds are so fragile that they can only handle 3-4 races in a year and then they are done. If they spent more time RACING and less time TRAINING perhaps we could enjoy more of their performances. These athletes thrive on competition, and it should be the trainers job to keep them sound and race them as often as possible. THAT is what the sport needs, Champions, not one hit wonders. The likes of War Admiral, Affirmed, and Citation would be ashamed!!

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 18:49:01 GMT

Coldfacts - then you don't count Conquistador Cielo, Tank's Prospect, Kingmambo (he won the French 2000 Guineas), or Fusaichi Pegasus in your Mr. P total?

I think you had best clarify further that you are talking about US classics, since Giant's Causeway has sired 4 classic winners overseas, making your statement about the Storm Cat line laughable as it stands otherwise.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 16:40:24 GMT

Coldfacts,

I am surprised you focused so much on the San Felipe when your easy target should have been Verrazano in the TBD. This is a race that eats favorites for the fun of it, and 5 of those have been Pletcher's. That said do we go against him? YES! I see speed, too much speed in this race and that leads me to three others. Purple Egg, Dynamic Sky and a long shot named Java's War who will benefit most from a heated pace. I will key the favorite second and third and place these horses around him and probably toss in Park City down low. Will you join me in slaying a the great giant out east?

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 16:32:53 GMT

KY VET

I've been using Brisnet PP's since 2003 but I do happen to have the DRF Beyers for Derby winners from 1993 through 2009. Maybe somebody else can list the numbers for 2010 through 2012 for the following stat. I've listed the Derby winner's high Beyer number for their career prior to March 1st of their 3yo season. I hope this helps.

1993-Sea Hero-99

1994-Go For Gin-100

1995-Thunder Gulch-105

1996-Grindstone-92

1997-Silver Charm-110

1998-Real Quiet-102

1999-Charismatic-94

2000-Fusaichi Pegasus-103

2001-Monarchos-103

2002-War Emblem-86

2003-Funny Cide-103

2004-Smarty Jones-105

2005-Giacomo-98

2006-Barbaro-102

2007-Street Sense-108

2008-Big Brown-90

2009-Mine That Bird-81

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 16:19:46 GMT

Hunter's Light won the Al Maktoum Challenge r3. Little Mike ran well but faded in the final furlong on the tapeta. Needs to go back to the turf.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 15:43:09 GMT

Hmmm..In the Burj Nahaar, African Story made it back to back victories, eased at the wire. Dullahan, off to an awkward start, crept up on the rail, but then faded back in the home stretch.

Little Mike will be running in the next race.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 15:07:58 GMT

Wow: The gate crew at Meydan is awesome! In race 5, Masterstroke #5, went down in the gate. The crew had him up and out in under 30 seconds, and the remaining 8 unloaded within a minute. #'s 5,4 and 6 were checked by a Vet, and everyone was reloaded with no delay. #5 was scratched. I liked #'s 2 and 4. 12f...slow first half by lead (#4), then they really started racing...#6 Jackalberry, #2 Await The Dawn, and pacesetter #4 Cavalryman.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 13:40:02 GMT

Coldfacts: You should also consider that because the Mr. Prospector line is so prevalent in Derby Starters (along with Slew), for every Mr. P. colt who wins, there are at least 15 other Mr.P. colts in the gate who didn't win.

That's simple logic.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 13:09:06 GMT

Coldfacts:

Mr Prospector bred 1970

Storm Cat bred 1983

Seems more fair to compare Mr.P to Seattle Slew and Secretariat, all born in the 70's.

Storm Cat's son Giant's Causeway alone did not have his first crop until 2002. He then produced:

Mike Fox..Canadian Queen's Plate

First Samurai...2000 Guineas

Footstepsinthesand...1000 Guineas and Coronation stakes

Shamardal who was the Euro 2 year old champion, and came back at 3 to win the Poule d'Essai des Poulains, the Prix du Jockey Club and the St. James's Palace.

That's just one Storm Cat son who never had a foal on the ground until 2002.

Johnny: I know you were joking, it's just that every year someone else brings it up. Don't forget Sunday Silence and Seattle Slew, both double SS's.

Dr. D.: I'm not firm in my choices yet either. The horses on my list are those who have impressed me. I haven't seen them all yet, and I'll see what else happens. I'm still not impressed by Tapits for the 10f, so therefore not 12f. I guess Hansen just knocked me off that train last year.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 04:38:51 GMT

Slew,

My quote:

"For the records the Storm Cat sire line has more stallions than the Mr. Prospector sire line. To date the Storm Cat sire line has one classic winner to its credit i.e.,Shackleford."

A clarification is obviously needed.

My reference to the one classic winner related to the line of stallions that trace back to Storm Cat. I assume that this would have been obvious since I was comparing the Mr. Prospector and Storm Cat sire lines.

There is Storm Cat and there is his line of stallions. Related such that each excludes or precludes the other.