Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

PomDeTerre — Sat, 06 Apr 2013 23:34:10 GMT

The assisstant starter in the wood today shuld be fired. he just blew any chance of freedom's child getting into the derby. with injuries and everything else the owners & trainers have to worry about, the LAST thing they need to see is human error. That was a disaster, and the colt actually had a chance to hit the board, especially since he would have brought the pace to verrazzano. inexcusable,

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mick Cage — Tue, 19 Mar 2013 06:56:41 GMT

I'm not seeing a pattern in repeat trainer winners, seems like every year somebody gets they're 1st derby winner, the repeat winning trainer trend seems to be a thing of the past, looking for the same trend this year. My picks this year...

Dice Flavor,Orb,It's My Lucky Day,Hear The Ghost,and Vyjack...On my Facebook last it's documented that I picked I'll Have A Another the day after the Santa Anita Derby to win the Triple Crown...I was pretty damn close

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 18:16:01 GMT

This is an opinion so you can argue with it if you like,well this whole game is about opinion so Im not in left field.

Leparoux is a good jockey I have bet him on long shots and made money,but noticed that he fell asleep at the wheel on some heavily bet favorites that he rode.

Sometimes the other jockeys in the race focus on beating the big favorite and it makes for a rough trip if the jockey dosent realize that before the race and thinks ahead to those possibilites.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Secreteriat — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 17:34:17 GMT

Garrett Gomez on Flasback,

Garret was removed from Looking at Lucky after bad placing from the 1 post position in the Derby. Lepareux is one of the top 3 jocks at Churchil. Another top trainer says you do not remove a jock afetr one mistake! They usually learn from it and ride a much improved race thereafter. I doubt this was baffert's decision. Wouldn't be ironic if Julian won the Derby beating Flashback?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 16:04:19 GMT

Mary,

I saw War Academy’s debut victory and it was workman like. I have a distinct dislike for Giants Causeway horses.

They always seem to breakdown and if they do make the Derby field they finish off the board irrespective of their proven ability. His best colt to run in the Derby was Creative Cause and he finished 5th. The best finish by a horse sired by him.

Between 2002 and 2008 Giants Causeway bred 1,259 mares that have produced either 5 or 6 Derby starters with all finishing of the board.

Over the last 8 years he bred an average of 181 mares. No stallion possessing that type of mares bred record has sired a Derby winner.

I would not be surprised if I there is an announcement that he is off the Derby trail due to some back end issue.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 15:58:51 GMT

There is, of course, a reason why weight has been piled on good horses in their next starts. As the crop pecking order becomes clear, it's hard to get your bet covered. Make up some reason, like weight carried, to push up the odds on the favorite and improve the handle.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 15:53:15 GMT

If we run horses against themselves, that is, look at their lifetime body of work, they do not run their greatest races carrying the least weight.

I find it a credible hypothesis that track, stakes and world records would be set more often by younger and lighter-weighted horses than is the case if weight was a significant factor.

Of course, there is a limit. A 30 lb. shift in the weights would have to tell.

(Trivia note: in the 1700s racing in India, horses in the Stud Book had to give Arabians three stone, 42 pounds. The Godolphin "Arabian" was born 1724. "Sent to India" was a badge of shame for thoroughbreds. The Arabians were bred in royal studs in India from stock imported overland from Arabia.)

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Forbidden Apple — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 15:36:47 GMT

The story of the weekend was the world record set by Bright Thought, but no mention of him here. The triple crown prep races are not the only action around.

Coldfacts, That's funny, Uncle Mo will never be in the HOF. He did have an overnight stakes named after him at the Big A last week. Be careful of what you say about the golden boy trainer. Some people continue to believe he can do no wrong.

JerseyBoy, Delhomme could have had a 70 pound weight break and he still would have lost. Another brilliant piece of training.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 05:39:47 GMT

Closer,

Like you, I thought the same about the Rebel going in to it so I didn't pay too much attention till after it was run. I think Will Take Charge can move forward. I was skeptical before but despite the times, which get too much credit because these are 3 year olds who can improve so much between now and May 4th, I'd give WTC some rope. Let's see how he handles 9F's before we write him off, but he is coming around and is worth another look. At this stage of the game, Curlin didn't do much better in the Rebel.

Ladies,

And I mean all of you, I have enjoyed the spirited conversation, not to mention the extra added depth of DNA! You notice most of the boys have kept pretty quite on the matter, myself included. Awesome stuff. Keep it up! Your insight and passion has been duly noted.

I think the best reward of the new point system is yet to come. The shuffle and mix of who is going to run where is going to bring us some full fields, great racing, heartbreak and great opportunities at the window. I just hope some good closers don't pass on the Florida Derby, it's ripe for the picking.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 05:36:30 GMT

coldfacts:

You seem habitually to ignore info sources that are at your fingertips. No need to guess about what Malibu Moon might sire; he has almost 1000 foals of racing age. His best are fillies and fast.

www.bloodhorse.com/stallion-register

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 02:35:49 GMT

Pedigree Ann, no top natch handicapper here, but I will say that since 2007, I have gotten it right 38 to 40 percent of the time in the triple crown races, not too good, I guess. Rags to Riches, Street Sense, Mine That Bird, Rachel Alexandra, Summer Bird, Super Saver, Ruler on Ice, and Union Rags. Of course, my greatest disappointment was Union Rags and Freisan Fire, both not winning the Kentucky Derby.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

robinm — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 02:06:09 GMT

Mary; I express my opinions as just that, opinions, while you state your opinions as fact. Who is the arrogant one here?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 01:55:45 GMT

Will Take Charge has a very nice pedigree. I know the Louisiana Derby is only two weeks away, but Will Take Charge ran a very easy Rebel Stakes, so why not. I just watched a documentary about Chris Antley, Lucas, and Charismatic. Enough said.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

sceptre — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 01:50:43 GMT

Pedigree Ann:

Horses have 64 chromosomes (32 paired), not 32. You may be confusing people when identifying the (top) male line as the Y chromosome line. While that "line" does contain the Y chromosome it also has the same probablity of containing other genetic material as would any ancestor at same generational position.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 00:57:47 GMT

Here's my latest dozen :

- Uncaptured : Looking forward to next weekend, see how fit he is.

- Ground Transport : He needs to get points, quickly. I think he'll get it in the LA Derby.

- Will Take Charge : Like his win in the Rebel, I think he's got enough points to make the field.

- Hear The Ghost : I'm split between him and Tiz a Minister, but he's got the points...

- Shanghai Bobby : I'm thinking he's going to take the Florida Derby, he maybe short for 10F but there's not a lot out there that are true 10F colts anymore. At least so far, he runs everytime and he's a grinder.

- Itsmyluckyday : I'm still not sure how good he is, bottom line is, he only has 10 points, Florida Derby is going to be a good race.

- Orb : Where's he going ?

- Vyjack : Verrazano going to the Wood...

- Den's Legacy : Like PA's thoughts on BB taking him to the BlueGrass instead of the Arkansas but his cut didn't look too good.

- Normandy Invasion : He landed Castellano, suddenly looks good in the Wood.

- Palace Malice : Still think he's the best Pletcher horse, he'll need a 2nd in the LA Derby.

- Mylute : Still like him a lot, I hope he gets Graham now that ISAN is off the trail.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 22:20:54 GMT

Mary -

The coin-toss in the movie, in which two foals of different breeding were being chosen from, was fiction.

The real coin-toss was for which of the two foals produced by the Bold Ruler-Somethingroyal matings would go to which owner. Phipps won and chose the first one, the filly The Bride (full sister to Syrian Sea), and Meadow Stud got the second one, Secretariat. Somethingroyal was getting on in age at that time, so I would assume Phipps wanted his 'fee' upfront in case the mare didn't get in foal again.

So no 'psychic' inkling about the superior value of a pedigree with Princequillo in it was needed.

Cassandra -

Horses have 32 chromosomes, with the genes for those traits we want in racing TBs spread among them. The X chromosome contains some important stuff, which is why every horse has to have at least one, but the Y is primarily concerned with turning those default-female zygotes into males.

So giving the Y-chromosome line the major credit for a horse's traits is ludicrous; Phalaris is 10 generations back from a horse like Will Take Charge! Now traits other than maleness MAY have come from a male line ancestor, but they CAN come via daughters, too. Daughters of sons, sons of daughters, any path.

Zarvona -

I usually don't brag about my IQ; I prefer to let my words indicate whether I have a high degree of intelligence or not. BUT, since you bring it up, mine isn't shabby, either. Top of high school class, Caltech grad in Math, Ph.D., that sort of stuff. Still hasn't managed to make me a top-notch handicapper.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 19:58:37 GMT

Zarvona: While I love my Slew, I really prefer to see some outbreeding in a pedigree. Carefully planned, it tends to balance out potential flaws.

I really am anxious to see the foals that Einstein breeds. We've been importing some really nice horses from South America and the UK. And So You Think is shuttling between Australia and the USA. It just might open up new lines over the next 20 years. Invasor's colts are racing, but doing so-so. I've had an eye on Photon for a while, but he's not his Daddy.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 19:46:42 GMT

Cassandra: I think what sceptre was noting is that while a female carries the x chromosome, the male determines the sex, since he carries both x and y chromosomes. The x is then passed only to his daughters.

I felt terrible for Oxbow...but, he was beaten by a better horse. Will Take charge has an easier, longer stride. He has potential. And a longshot did take it at 27/1 odds.

And, oh my, Bourbon Bay at 7 seems to have lost his zip. But I still have faith in this guy. Maybe it's time to shorten him up, but he always used to do so well at Santa Anita in the marathons. I like Slim Shady too, but he wasn't ready for more than 10f.

A lot of upsets yesterday! A ton of excitement.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 15:37:02 GMT

Robinm, I find your remarks to be touched with arrogance, not to mention condescending. It grates on my nerves when I run across people like you. Your attitude takes away from any knowledge that you may have, i.e. I don't trust you.

The top side of Orb's pedigree is great, but unfortunately the tail side is not. Mr. Prospector was a nice horse; but the line-breeding to him is simply outrageous and immoral.

Okay, now since the "Y" chromosome is smaller and carries less genetic material than the "X" chromosome, a colt will almost always express certain genes only found on his "X" chromosome. A filly on the other hand, inheriting two "X" chromosomes, will express whichever is dominant.

This is why I look more closely at a colt's female line; particularly the broodmare sire's female line.

This works for me sometimes.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

hirize — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 14:48:11 GMT

I guess it's safe to say now that the Remsen was a fluke race that fooled everyone but me! Top 3 horses out of that race has faltered.

Also, for those who think Orb's pedigree is suspect I only have this to say. AP Indy on the top, and Unbridled on the bottom. Not to mention 2 triple crown winners on top. Johnny V staying home for the Florida Derby March 30th means he and Angel Cordero know there is a Derby in their future with Orb! It also tells me they may not trust Verrazano nor have they committed just yet.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 13:45:31 GMT

Mary,

“Also, Orb was bred for speed. There is nothing in his pedigree to suggest otherwise.”

You should try to avoid extreme statements. Orb’s sire Malibu Moon a son of stamina influencing A P Indy did win a race beyond 51/2F but that was due in part to his abbreviated career.

In Raise A Native’s four starts he did not race beyond 5 1/2F but he recorded two NTR for 5F & 51/2F.

He sired Majestic Prince who would have been the first undefeated Triple Crown winner if not for his only defeat in the Belmont.

Orb’s dam sire Unbridled won two major G1, 10F races and his dam line was loaded with stamina. His sire Fappiano was produced from a Dr. Fager mare. Dr. Fager was exceptionally fast so it possible for Unbridled to sire a sprinter.

Malibu Moon recorded: 57 and a bit for 5F so it is conceivable that he could sire a sprinter. However, one can ever accurately predict what a particular mating will produce.

Orb’s pedigree like most US thoroughbreds has a mix of speed and stamina.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 13:04:53 GMT

Slew,

“It's certainly not an objective observation, and that's a pity”

To some a 1-5 favorite winning a race easily is an exceptional performance. To other achieved what was expected. There's need to be trashing of his beaten opponents or over the top comments.

Hear The Ghost won his graded stakes debut just as Verrazano did. However, he did it against a 4-5 colt that was highly ranked in Mr. Haskins DD. Hear The Ghost was not even in Mr. Haskin's previous DD.

Is he being showered with accolades? No! The excuses for Flashback’s loss have been numerous and I am being accused as being pitifully lacking in objectivity. Not fair!

“he did pick Park City”

Citing that a colt is an interesting unknown does not amount to picking it. I also cited the War Pass colt that finished second would be a good exotic wager.

You have conveniently chosen to exclude same as it would not fit into your narratives to discredit me.

“Whether or not your favorite horse wins does not mean you can't appreciate how well he did run, or how well the winner ran"

A 1-5 is expected to win commandingly. What is there to salivate over? I appreciate exceptional performances not routine victories. Flashback went down to defeat as the short price favorite but he was gallant in defeat.

I appreciate his effort more than that of Verrazano because he was subjected to a wicked pace for 6F and still battled on to the line.

If you choose to salivate over a colt on an afternoon stroll then more power to you.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 12:59:18 GMT

Slew,

I think Coldfacts has an aversion to the "buzz" horse of the week.”

The above would be true if I was not touting Heat The Ghost heading into the San Felipe. He was certainly the buzz horse of the week in CA. Likewise, I have posted favorable comments regarding the latest buzz horse Abstraction.

What do you consider buzz about a 1-5 horse? Verrazano was the overwhelming favorite heading into the TBD. He won handily and his status as a wonder horse has been enhance.

What has done to achieve this status?

The colt is clearly very classy but no classier than the one that occupies the top of Mr. Haskins DD. Why is he going to the Wood instead of facing Itsmyluckyday in the FL Derby? Their meeting in the FL Derby would put to rest any doubts as to who is the top dog heading into the Derby.

Tiz The Truth and Flashback were being hailed as monsters. I questioned the wisdom of same as the two colts won races recording fractions of 24, 48, 12 prior to being elevated to monster status.

This is how absurd some of these statements are. At least Verrazano recorded 1:34 but so did Itmyluckyday twice.

Has he gained wonder horse status? If these sentiment were not mainly emotionally driven I would have no problems with them.

“but the more hype they get, the more he chooses to criticize them.”

Do not confuse my criticism of hype width that of particular horses. I have stated repeatedly that Verrazano is a very nice colt. Has he earned wonder horse status? If he has to be retired from racing now would he make the HOF? Will Mr. Pletcher’s previous wonder horse Uncle Mo make the HOF?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Saratoga AJ — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 12:50:06 GMT

A day for two old timers...a trainer and stable.

A Lucas exacta? Amazing. Especially when the winner Will Take Charge lost by 18 lengths on the same track, at the same distance, against many of the same horses a month ago. Only explanation is it was wet then.

So old timer Lucas has two for the gate on May 4th. As does the legendary Calumet Farms, who own's 2nd place finisher Oxbow.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Closer — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 12:42:11 GMT

I didn't see any horse from the Rebel Stakes being a major threat in the Derby---the last 2 1/2 furlongs were run in almost 33 seconds by both the the winner and place horse---nowhere near Derby standards.