Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Wed, 27 Mar 2013 03:11:34 GMT

robinm : Thanks for the info, yeah I love the Big Browns crop this year just as much as I like the Midnight Lutes. I'm really excited about Ground Transport, took a long time for them to find the path for him and get him going, now there's one shot but I really like his chances here. He loves this track, has a good local jockey and his last win looks like he'll relish the added distance. It's a tough field but I think he's on par with all these, including Revolutionary.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

robinm — Tue, 26 Mar 2013 07:25:36 GMT

Jay Jay;

I loved Big Brown and I love his pedigree. I suspect Mary is referring to the inbreeding. While there is no inbreeding to Mr Prospector, which she really objects to (as a recipe for unsoundness, I believe), BB does have many crosses to the same horses in his pedigree. Good, even great horses, but inbreeding none-the-less.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 23:21:54 GMT

robinm :

" I'm not sure I've seen a colt yet this year with the necessary combination of brilliance and stamina. "

I'm hoping we'll see one this weekend in Ground Transport. A fast Big Brown colt who I think is just getting good.

Mary : Can you pls elaborate on what part of BB's breeding is an accident waiting to happen ? I don't know how to read that inbreeding part yet...

The LA derby is probably the best betting prep race...because there's no standout, looks like a very evenly matched field. Going to save up my lunch money this week for this race. Anxiously waiting for Ground Transport to run, hopefully he steps up, it's all or nothing.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 17:31:22 GMT

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

Unless I spend a day at the track I play these preps as isolated races and put between $10-30 on them. They're the only ones I play vertical exotics on because I don't have the opportunity of multi-race bets, which I prefer. I probably shouldn't bet exotics, period. To wit: I had $20 on Bodemeister on top of Secret Circle with Cozzetti and Stat in a trifecta last year. Close!...but no cigar.

I singled Bodemeister in the Derby in both vertical exotics (another race I always try the exotics on) and multi-race bets, but he wasn't my big play of the day. My big money was on either Turallure or Doubles Partner to win the Woodford, and where I had all pressers in the Derby: Bode, IHA, Gem, TCI, UR (UR against my better judgment). My third play of the day was a saver single in the last race anchoring the late pick 4, which I was live to (I recognize a lack of impulse control in myself on big days and try to find a late single to pin my hopes on in case I'm knocked out of the Woodford or Derby). That one lost by a flared nostril, so despite a bad day, with Shackleford my only winning single, I was very close to walking home with several thousand dollars. The Derby's just that kind of day -- often all it takes is getting one single home in the right spot, and where two is nearly always enough.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 17:02:09 GMT

First of all, a question, was “Black Onyx’s” Spiral run faster than “Animal Kingdom’s”?

Gee, and when these late ‘young guns’ that I mentioned were still out there in the likes of “Govenor Charlie” that now step up without a 2 year old foundation, suddenly your “dozen” becomes closer to my own. I said back when, that “it was a long way to May the 4th”and that there was way too much faith among those of your early ‘miler’ choices that were listed. Yes, they, many on your previous “dozen’s list”, have demonstrated speed, but I said that they were not bred for extremely longer compared with those that would come out later. Moreover, there were also several others that just missed out points wise over this last past weekend that are also ‘bred foreva’, that should they find some more points somewhere, they too will qualify and be ranked by me over many of your likely next “dozen” yet.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 14:42:56 GMT

COLDFACTS:

You are absolutely wrong and it has probably cost you a fortune.

In events governed by chance, what has already happened does not affect what happens next. If the roulette wheel stops 20 times in a row on black, it's still 50/50 on the next spin. (Skullduggery aside.)

You leave out a step in your decision making which is indispensable. You have to understand what the random chances are for the phenomenon you are weighting.

I have tried to steer you towards the first thing you need to know based on mares bred: what %age of the US foal crop is produced from whatever it is you're impressed by, Raise A Native or Mr. P.

I'd suggest you do a quick count of RaN or Mr P sirelines from the sires index of Keeneland fall.

Do you realize that 100% of horses first, second or third in Triple Crown races descend tail-male from Eclipse?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 14:33:17 GMT

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

You're right, last year's Bluegrass went according to form. I tried to beat Hansen with Dullahan I think and only bet a rew bucks (I tried Hero of Order because he was 36-1 and had like grass, now I remember!). The year before was crazy, with Brilliant Speed on top of longshots we never heard from again. This race looked more like that one with the exception of Uncaptured. Uncaptured runs near the pace, one of the reasons I liked him as a darkhorse for the Derby -- wins at CD and runs the kind of pressing style we like. I'll maybe still consider him as a longshot underneath if he shows more in the Bluegrass.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 14:27:16 GMT

This is just going to go on and on, innit?

There is a big difference between former years and nowadays, called sports medicine.

Horses are not worked (and overtrained) the way they used to be because we now know that racers, any species, do not have to train at race speed to get a full training effect.

Fortunately for the horse, this took less time to catch on than the decades of vets insisting that burning injured legs didn't help them heal. Mind you, I've caught a couple of glimpses of what appear to be firing scars quite recently.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 14:08:48 GMT

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

Matt Converse, above, was very high on War Academy. I took him seriously because War Academy was the first of Baffert's horses I'd read about in the fall, can't remember where.

I didn't bet or watch the Sunland Derby. I am tempted to close my eyes and refuse to consider the winner a Derby candidate coming out of this venue and againt this competition (he beat a bush leaguer, the 2nd favorite had never won a route, the third favorite never beaten maidens). And the track itself? Two track records in a row. Last year this race was a negative indicator of ability, so I'm biased against it.

That's not very original handicapping, I guess. I guess I'll get around to taking a peek and will keep an eye on the winner. It seems he has to run again before the Derby to be a contender, though.

The Spiral's the same way, I'm just tossing them all. I was keeping tabs on Crop Report just because of Motion, but I think I read yesterday that even after winning the Rushaway he's not being pointed at the Derby. Maybe I'm mistaken.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 12:14:32 GMT

A cakewalk is a cakewalk, frankly I dont give a R..s A.. what figure is assigned I might have to make my own adjustments to the raw figgur ala vetky did in his calculation for uncle mo and plooting what a mile prep race and its subsequent figgur means to a mile and a quarter event against seasoned routers.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

robinm — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 05:15:43 GMT

Speed, particularly tactical speed, has done very well in the Derby recently and I suspect the large field has played a major part in that.

While I would love to see a Triple Crown champion again, I fear I may not, because a colt (or filly!) with the tactical speed to win the Derby and Preakness may not have the stamina to win the Belmont. As Mary pointed out, the brilliant Smarty Jones didn't and the brilliant Big Brown was stopped by injury. I'm not sure I've seen a colt yet this year with the necessary combination of brilliance and stamina. All are lightly raced compared to the "iron horses" of yesteryear. We do see far to many injuries, but it's hard to say if this is due to a lack of foundation on a 3 yr old when asked to run 3 grueling races in 5 weeks or to a propensity to unsoundness in many of today's pedigrees.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 04:26:17 GMT

Cassandra.Says,

I do not profess to be as bright as you are as I am just a simple man.

Only one with superior intellect and knowledge would venture to post views in such absolutes.

When 20 stallions from a particular sire line are associated with the winners of Triple Crown races, the particular sire line should be respected.

There is significant difference between what can be learnt and what historic information indicates.

The process of evaluating Derby contenders has not left me paranoid.

If you chose to post coded statement you are unlikely to secure any meaningful responses.

Clarity will always get my vote.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 04:05:56 GMT

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

Governor Charlie victory was impressive against in what turned out to be a weak field. There are a few in Mr. Haskin’s DD that he could replace but that is entirely up to how he viewed the performance.

“BTW he will definitely be ahead of Footbridge after he smoked him and then had a cakewalk in the Sunland Derby.”

I am not surprised to see your post on this issue.

Governor Charlie defeated Footbridge by a NK. Such a margin of defeat is not normally referred to as being smoked. However, if you chose to redefine the meaning of smoked then, the context that I have provided is meaningless.

Race day medication is not administered to Footbridge and consequently he will always be behind other talented opponents.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 03:43:55 GMT

Cassandra.Says,

“Of the 10 Derby winners in the 70s, 7 were Bold Ruler line. In the 30 years since, Swale.”

Many thanks for the history lesson. However, I am puzzled regarding its relevance.

The Bold Ruler sire line dominated the decade of the 70s. Since that period of dominance, the line has produced three Derby winners and not one as you have highlighted.

Bold Ruler goes back to Nasrullah. Caro the sire of the 1988 Derby winner Winning Colors is a great grandson of Naarullah. Leroidesanimaux the sire of Animal Kingdom is a great grandson of Red God who is a son of Nasrullah.

“So here's our hero in 1979. Wow!! 70% Bold Rulers. I've found the key!”

Kindly forgive me but you will have to decode the above.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 02:11:16 GMT

Hey Coldfacts the Gov that beat the colt you have been harping about for weeks should be in the dozen dont you think.

I usually dont comment very much on that list because it is his opinion, as opposed to you and your buddy Rangulazation who argue about that list every week.

BTW he will defiitely be ahead of Footbridge after he smoked him and then had a cakewalk in the Sunland Derby.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 01:38:31 GMT

COLDFACTS:

Of the 10 Derby winners in the 70s, 7 were Bold Ruler line. In the 30 years since, Swale.

So here's our hero in 1979. Wow!! 70% Bold Rulers. I've found the key! The map to the Lost Mule Mine! The cure for the common cold! I'm moving to Vegas and bankrupting the early books!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 01:27:02 GMT

Coldfacts:

Your belief that much can be learned from the record of sire lines in Triple Crown races is your greatest weakness and will be responsible for your ending your life on a sidewalk somewhere with a Derby hat upside down beside you.

As for clear communication, you'll never make it. I do deadpan, I do whimsy, I twist tails once in a while. You'll never get any of these. OCD?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 01:12:29 GMT

Rusty Weisner I read somewhere that Baffert said War Academy was his Derby horse,what did you think about Governor Charlies performance today?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 01:03:15 GMT

I wonder if runaway leading second crop sire Midnight Lute is booked absolutely solid.

After back-to-back track records at 8.5 and 9 furlongs by rising 3s, his excuse for being distance-limited is looking pretty unimpeachable.

Which means: he must be regarded as a stayer who was a champion sprinter. Not too shabby!

And incidentally, a perfect example of a point under discussion earlier when I said you found out crucial information about a sire by watching his first foals race.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 00:56:10 GMT

"Anger and logic cannot mutually co-exist." AofR

A Modest Proposal?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 00:48:43 GMT

Chief:

Shhhh. History of betting: horseplayer finds an angle, can't shut up about his wins, everybody picks it up, odds tank, profits evaporate.

I always say the best angle at the trots is a driver shift, if you were the only one who knew about it. Failing that, the best angle is my opinion of the scores, which I tell NOBODY.

Surface shift is about the best for the pedigree angle: first time on grass. For horses who love grass it's usually love at first sight.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 24 Mar 2013 23:51:16 GMT

"I think every horse writes his own pedigree, that's why breeding experts are often wrong."

Having trouble figuring what you mean here. Are you saying that their parents' distance preferences and class have no bearing on the those qualities in the offspring? Every time? I'll admit that there are those rare individuals who exceed all expectations, but most of the time, you get what you breed for. You breed a sprinting Orientate mare to Speightstown and odds are you won't come up with a Belmont winner, despite all the staying horses farther back in the pedigree.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Sun, 24 Mar 2013 21:33:15 GMT

robinm, if you and I am sure that you have, look at Big Brown's pedigree, you can see that he was an accident waiting to happen. Love the horse, but I would never think of purchasing a horse with Big Brown in the pedigree. The inbreeding was unconscionable IMO.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Sun, 24 Mar 2013 21:24:44 GMT

Robin, I loved Smary Jones, but 1 1/2 miles was not in his pedigree. I, like you, am simply looking for a triple crown winner. The industry needs it to happen. Verrazano IMO may have trouble in the Kentucky Derby with a 20 horse field, Orb also. Both are bred more for speed.

I do want to remind everyone of the fact tht all of the handicappers and the rest of the world said that Union Rags would need significant help from the female side of his pedigree to get the distance in the Belmont Stakes. Come on, that's where the stamina comes from. I am no expert, obviously, but Union Rags not only had the speed from the Mr. Prospector(Count Fleet)female line of his pedigree, but he also had the stamina from the Secretariat(Princequillo) female line. I love the coupling of these two lines.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Sun, 24 Mar 2013 21:07:20 GMT

Robin, Hear The Ghost does have a bit of speed in his pedigree, along with an abundance of stamina. My only problem with him, is that he is so lightly raced. Revolutionary has the better pedigree, with the Count Fleet/Princequillo lines; speed and distance. Itsmyluckyday also has the pedigree to be a good distance runner; with some speed in his pedigree. So far, these 3 horses are at the top of my list in the triple crown races.