Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Sun, 07 Apr 2013 06:09:09 GMT

Freedom Child gives us the 1001st way to lose a horse race. You have to pause at the gate to buck off your second rider as the assistant starter has joined your jockey.

A start worthy of Revolutionary!

Freedom Child is a real little pistol and the pace scenario would have been very different had he been in it. I think he's going to develop into a top horse and we'll have a real example to use kvetching about the points system. We'd probably never have come up with "What if the assistant starter rides one of the horse's head out of the gate, ruining his chance to earn points coming off a very impressive wire-to-wire nine furlong win?"

And speaking of starts, in the race in which Orb beat Revolutionary, Revolutionary was in the one-hole. At the off, the 2 horse broke out into him and shoved him down the track the wrong way, out of camera range. When next seen he was coming around the turn to the stretch trying to rejoin the field.

In his next start, he was on a 'good' inner track at Aqueduct and ran at least 12 lengths better, considering how easily he was travelling and track condition, finishing one second off the track record, breezing. (Broke well, too.) When Orb beat him Revolutionary was third in a photo with Transparent. Next time he cantered past Transparent at will and opened up nine lengths on him effortlessly.

I see several people suggesting that Revolutionary "attracts" trouble. Just how would that work, exactly?

Somehow I can't get enthused about Verrazano. I think it's attitude; I don't see any. JV says he didn't hit him because he thought he had Vyjack beaten and didn't see Normandy Invasion coming. I'd like Verrazano a lot more if he'd pinned his ears when challenged and taken off on his own initiative.

Let's say I have to be showed.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

angelaj — Tue, 02 Apr 2013 02:45:38 GMT

I understand that there are a lot of people who don’t like the current point system. That is fine. But please stop with the supposed “outrage” that this system keeps fillies out of the Kentucky Derby. I do not recall that any of the prep races are restricted to colts or geldings. So if the owners and trainers, who know their horses better than any blogger, feel that their filly can win one of these prep races then I’m sure they would have put them in the race (Dreaming of Julia can still be entered in the Bluegrass or Arkansas Derby). The connections of Regret, Genuine Risk, and Winning Colors all put their fillies in major preps and went on to win the Derby. These great fillies would have made the Derby field even in the current point system. This point system works. It will keep those 3 year olds who cannot get the distance from entering the gate on the first Saturday in May. Shanghai Bobby may turn out to be one of the best milers ever, but that doesn’t mean he belongs in the Derby. For those who are upset that their favorite horse doesn’t have the points to get in the Derby because they didn’t run in the preps, DON’T BLAME THE POINT SYSTEM, BLAME THE CONNECTIONS!!!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Tue, 02 Apr 2013 00:43:21 GMT

Slew, I really like Vyjack, but Princequillo is located on Vyjack's grand dam's sire line. Now, if Princequillo and Mr. Prospector, who is on Vyjack's brodmare sire's female line, could switch places, LOL, then the story would be WOW.

I do like the Princequillo/Mr. Prospector (Count Fleet) cross, but I don't like the position of these great stallions in Vyjack's pedigree.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Johnny — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 23:49:03 GMT

Chief:

I like Orb a lot 2 things concern me with this colt.

1) He gets worked up in the paddock. I saw it first hand this year twice.

What is he going to do in front of a 100 thousand plus?

It just may be him who knows?

2) Leporuex is no where as good of a rider on the dirt as he is on the turf. Dialed In,Union Rags and he was just taken of Flashback.

I have to throw out horses somehow.

I throw out the 1 and the 2 hole.

I throw out the Dubai horse.

I throw out the Pletcher horses.

That usually leaves me around 10-12 to pick from.

Favorite bet the up and down exacta

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 23:31:23 GMT

Pedigree Ann, Regarding Revolutionary's family, you mentioned Jekyll and Hyde types, both mares unraced, etc. If I concerned myself with all of what you stated, confusion would rule and focus on the task at hand (pedigree) would be lost.

As far as your "unraced mares" statement, need I remind you that Somethingroyal in her only race finished off the board. She is the oldest mare to foal a Triple Crown winner at age 18. She produced 4 stakes winners, Secretariat, Sir Gaylord, First Family, and Syrian Sea. A PROLIFIC MARE SHE WAS.

Vertigineux, dam of Zenyatta, raced 7 times with 2 wins, maiden and an allowance race. Vertigineux is by Kris S. out of a Princequillo mare.

Both of these mares did nothing at the race track, but they did a lot in the breeding shed. Just for your information.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 22:41:17 GMT

Slew you are wrong. Princequillo is well established in Revolutionary's broodmare sire's female line as well as his dam's female line; oh and Princequillo also leaves his mark in his sire's female line. If you only look at the 5x you are making a huge mistake.

As for the time between Orb and Reolutionary's race, Revolutionary wins, but the time is really irrelevent IMO, two very different tracks.

Revolutionary went 5 wide to win the race and did it in spectacular fashion. IMO, Revolutionary is more battle tested than Orb. I do not mean to take anything away from Orb's race, he is a fine looking colt and he looked fantastic in the Fla. Derby.

I simply am of the opinion that Revolutionary has the better pedigree and IMO got so much more out of his race than Orb did in the Fla.Derby.

They are both fine colts; I just really am attracted Revolutionary. I've been loving him for a while now, so there is no good reason for me to jump off of his bandwagon now. LOL!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Paula Higgins — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 22:18:36 GMT

Dreaming of Julia could show up at the Preakness and Belmont. Then if she should win one or both of them, they can decide how that point system is working out for a potential Triple Crown winner. Yes, she could have run with the boys but why should she have to? Why even have races for girls and then relegate them to secondary status or marginalize them? If you had a point system for girls, you probably wouldn't have more than two who would qualify and they might not enter the Derby. But if they were good enough, their owners might enter them and it would add another dimension to the race. Alot more women might be interested in seeing it for starters. Zenyatta raced with the girls exclusively and then won the 2009 Breeders Cup Classic and then almost repeated in 2010. Can you imagine if they changed the rules for that race as well? We would have missed two of the greatest races of all time. They should have a point system for girls that doesn't require having to race against the boys before the Derby. You are devaluing the great female horses by making this rule. Does the name Rags to Riches ring a bell? The first filly to win the Belmont in 100 years had never raced against the boys prior to the Belmont. The point system needs tweaking.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Linda in Texas — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 21:15:08 GMT

Hi Paula - you know when i heard that John Shirreff's was leaving California and going to NY i thought maybe it might be because David, Dottie's son would be closer. I don't know, something is in the works! Leaving California, that is amazing. Barn 55 (isn't that his barn number) won't be the same. But he says he will return.

Today is Zenyatta's Birthday and i was so hoping she would foal on her own birthday. And it is Mr. Haskin's birthday also if memory serves. If Steve's isn't today it is either the 2nd, 3rd or 4th of April. Because i am 73 on the 5th.

And his birthday is before mine.

Happy Birthday Zenyatta and same to our chief mentor on maniacal maneuverings of the race tracks, the one and only Steve Haskin!!!!

May you have 50 more and not run out of stories and that all of us who appreciate them get to be here to read them.

Thanks Steve, you are simply the best.

Linda

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

duchess — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 17:52:13 GMT

Ranagulzion, if her connections wished for Dreaming of Julia to run in the Kentucky Derby they should have started her in one of the colt races. If they did not feel she was up to facing the boys in the Florida Derby, they could have chosen the Spiral or one of the other fifty pointers.

The fact that this filly has no Derby points reflects on the lack of confidence her connections had in her abilities against colts.

Churchill Downs did not make the point system a huge secret.

They are not blocking or barring fillies. But they do want only fillies who have proven themselves against the colts to be entered.

The connections of Dreaming of Julia have only themselves to blame for her lack of Derby qualifying points.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 16:52:22 GMT

Mary: Orb won the Fla Derby in

1:50:87

Revolutionary won the La Derby in

1:50:28

Neither winner set the pace.

How can you state that one was so much slower than the other? We're talking in hundredths of a second.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 16:41:47 GMT

Ranagul: If the connections of Dreaming of Julia had entered her in the Fla Derby rather than the Oaks, she'd be eligible for points. Any filly who wants to compete in the Derby will have to step up early and face the colts in a major prep to qualify.

The point system is working no matter how much cynicism you wish to cast on its effectiveness.

I think it's fair that if a filly is good enough to want the Derby, she must qualify for it just like any colt or gelding. That, to me, is very equal and not gender restricted.

The Derby itself has always been age restricted. Did you want to complain about that not being fair either?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 16:30:45 GMT

Mary: What confuses me is that you choose to dislike Orb on the basis that Princequillo is not in his tail family line, yet you choose to like Revolutionary even though Princequillo does not appear in his tail female line either.

I would have thought you would be all over Vyjack who DOES have Princequillo in his tail female line. (So does Declan's Warrior)

Wow...Animal Kingdom was superb. I just think it's a shame that a colt bred, trained and raced in the USA gets a BIG world class win, but Australia gets the credit because that's where his owners are now. Best of luck to them all as he goes into stud. (Wish he'd make a stop at Royal Ascot.)

Revolutionary had a royal battle with Mylute to the wire, but Orb seemed to saunter to the lead with ease, once his jockey got his attention back on the track. Love both horses, but I do favor Orb. I just don't see any distance being a problem for him, as long as they can keep him focused on task at hand.

Thought Narvaez did great in his first stakes race. Looking to see more from him before the Derby. He's fast but tired, and he needs points. I wonder if Declan's Warrior will turn up in a major stakes soon.

My dozen got shook up this week, separating wheat from chaff. We'll see what's on tap tomorrow.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 13:57:10 GMT

Ranagulizion,

Bravo! Bravo! I'm in tears........Laughing.

"Sad state of affairs"

"absolutely scandalous and there should be a price to pay"

"shame be heaped"

Now if you had directed these comments towards Stonestreet and Mr. Pletcher, you might have my attention and full endorsement.

However, the only thing that is "UNBELIEVABLE!!! is that anyone who has a talented thoroughbred, Filly or Colt, can stand around blaming a point system for their failure to fill out an entry form in a race that secures points. All were welcome. Yes that means running against the colts if its a filly prior to the Derby, but this is a far safer and more proven route to a successful Derby. The cards have been on the table and the rules apparent to all(that can read). We at this site have all crossed this bridge together already as a group long before this situation and the answer to us has been apparent. I can't believe for one second your suggestion that Stonestreet and Todd Pletcher didn't completely understand the rules if they ran D oF J in races without points. Even if they are now regretting their decisions to not run in a qualifying race, you can't blame a system that welcomed their participation all along. Why is it I feel your empathy for this filly is a tad self serving and lacking an ounce of altruism?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 12:41:08 GMT

When Shackleford was entering the 2011 FL Derby I cited in a post that his dam sire Unbridled was uniquely position to achieve something unprecedented.

Unbridled won the FL Derby; sired two winners of the race and a Shackleford victory would have made him a broodmare sire of the winner of the race as well.

Shackleford lost by the narrowest of margins.

With Orb's victory in the 2013 FL Derby unbridled has now achieved the FL Derby trifecta.

Add his feat of siring a winner of each leg of the Triple Crown to his latest achievement and it is overwhelmingly clear that he is undoubtedly the greatest extension of the great Mr. Prospector.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 12:16:28 GMT

Ranagulzion,

"The performances of Orb, Itsmyluckyday, Revolutionary and Mylute were dwarfed by the scincillating display of Dreaming of Julia"

How many of the horses that delivered the most impressive pre Derby performances became eventual Derby winners?

I assume a few went on the win the Derby but in recent times the majority of those that made the field have not.

Big Brown delivered some impressive performances in FL and went on to win the Derby handily.

Empire Maker on the other hand delivered an impressive 9 3/4L victory in the 2003 FL Derby.

He was defeated by the less impressive Funny Cide whom he had defeated in the Wood Memorial.

Indian Charlie won the SA Derby in a stakes record equaling time of 1:47. Finishing 2 1/2L behind him was stalemate Real Quiet. The Fish as Real Quite was known went to defeat Indian Charlie in the Derby.

I am sure there are several other examples that can be provided. However, the two above are indicators that impressive performances are no more significant than modest as Churchill Downs will always prove to be an equalizer.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 11:12:35 GMT

Ranagulzion,

"Dreaming of Julia should give everybody a reality check"

In your quest to discredit the New Points System you have made a major assumption and have totally contradicted your late Development Syndrome theory for A P Indy sired horses.

Firstly, in spite of DOJ impressive performance it does not represent a guarantee that she would win the Derby.

Rachael won the Kentucky Oaks by 19 1/2L the day before the Derby. Subsequent were arguments suggested that she would have won the Derby if entered.

Two weeks later she took on the boys at 9.5F and won by a 3/4L.

Bellamy Road won the Wood by 17 1/2L in a NSR. He was an also ran in the Derby.

Past performances are no guarantees or future success.

It is not unusual for fillies to run faster than colt at GP.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Davids — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 09:20:55 GMT

Ranagulzion, perhaps TP et al are considering a "Rags to Riches" Belmont Stakes repeat performance with Dreaming of Julia.

I feel you a little disingenuous with Orb's performance though - had they run faster earlier in the Florida Derby Orb would, arguably, have had a more 'suitable' race and inevitably would have been credited with a faster time. Everything was against Orb, if truth be told.

Even so, I do realise the point you are stressing and it is valid.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

CharlieCigar — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 05:10:00 GMT

No way should Shack have been close in the 3 year old horse of the year voting to the Animal. I distinctly remember Animal Kingdom breaking poorly in the Preakness, cut off at the break, dropping 14 lengths off the pace, only to lose by a fast diminishing half length.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 03:39:26 GMT

"Pedigree doesn't always work, but I feel a sense of some control with the little knowledge that I have." [Mary]

This is very insightful, Mary. We usually do better noticing this in other tribes than in ourselves. It is the nature of human sap., when raddled with indecision and doubt, to invent a nonsense ritual to come up with the answer.

Flip them coins, stir them entrails, tip them teacups, toss them runes, calculate that track bias, cross my palm with silver.

It's life and death whether we intercept the caribou migrating south down through one of eight possible river valleys. What to do? Burn them bones!

This does really good things for our digestion, blood pressure, insomnia, other stress symptoms.

We also send out scouts, though. And when one of them reports back that he's found the herd, nobody brings up that tossing the bones gave a different answer.

The trick is to recognize when to pivot, when you have gotten information that might really be a guide to your goal, not a soother.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

angelaj — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 02:00:10 GMT

Tired of hearing people complain that the current point system is keeping fillies out of the Kentucky Derby. Not one of the Kentucky Derby preps have been restricted to just colts and geldings. The owners and trainers were aware of what races earned you points for the Derby before the major preps started. So, if your flavor of the week filly (this week Dreaming of Julia, last week Midnight Lucky, two weeks ago Beholder)doesn't earn points for the Derby blame her connections. Not the point system!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Johnny — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 01:47:33 GMT

Coldfacts:

No problem he finished 4th feel better now?

By the way I had him in my $1.00 super

"The colt finished 6th just behind the 2012 Champion 2YO.

The track was not kind to closers."

When is Gulfstream ever kind to closers?

Considering you post 3 times to everyone else once, some of the stuff you post just may stick.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 01:43:52 GMT

Johnny do you mean if Leparoux rides him from an inside post or does that mean you toss orb if coupled with Leparoux under any circumstances.

I think Stevens agent will call Shug M.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 00:45:49 GMT

Ranagulzion, I agree with you, Dreaming of Julia ran a spectacular race. I'm not sold on Orb by any means.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 00:43:47 GMT

On March 28th I posted my trifecta for the Fla. Derby. Well I came close to winning with IMLD, Orb, and the longshot, Navarez. Unfortunately Navarez finished 4th.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Sun, 31 Mar 2013 23:50:55 GMT

Pedigree Ann, thank you for your comments. I understand totally where you are coming from. If I become concerned about mare's that have never raced and J&H types; it would be difficult for me to focus on pedigree.

I am not concernedd about Dehere on the sire line of Govenor Charlie's pedigree. I like the Count Fleet/Princequillo cross on the tail side. I like his broodmare sire's female line and his dam's female line. Storm Cat is well positioned here. I simply am of the opinion that Govenor Charlie's pedigree is replete with stamina on the tail side. He's not the only horse that I like, but IMO he and Black Onyx have very nice pedigrees. My boy, Revolutionary and Hear The Ghost both have nice pedigrees also.