Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 22:20:53 GMT

Thank you, Linda, and Happy Birthday to you and Steve.

No Lava Man did not go to post with Goldencents on Saturday. Apparently the Man and Goldencents do not get along.

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 17:51:35 GMT

Ranagulzion,

I agree with your take on the Wood. I don't know how much I like Verrazano, but I am betting against Normandy Invasion after this race. He was the beficiary of Verrazano beating Vyjack, and Vyjack wasn't 100%. NI never really threatened Verrazano.

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 17:48:22 GMT

Closer,

Falling Sky.

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 14:33:42 GMT

Mary,

Also, why do you pay so much attention to times?”

I am sure you are familiar with the phrase ‘Pace makes the race.’ Why are internal fractions and final times recorded if they are not significant? If you concur that they are significant, then you already know the answer to your question.

Verrazano recorded a time 1:34 and a bit for 8F in his second start. He was subsequently propelled to a status of ‘Wonder Horse’. If he had recorded a time of 1:38 for the mile he would have been the usual nonentity.

Final times are not as significant as internal fractions although the latter significantly contributes to the former.

The manner in which internal fraction are recorded can prove to be a useful handicapping and evaluation tool.

“Horses do what they have to do to win.”

You are no doubt aware that the above is applicable to both slow and fast horses .Do you consider what a slow horse does to win as being effective against much faster opponent?

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 14:30:16 GMT

Verrazano has not answered the distance question because of the pace. Maiden claimers can get 9f off a 50 and change half.

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 14:16:23 GMT

RUSTY:

You haven't been listening and gone to look at the head-ons, have you?

Revolutionary does not have a habit of sluggish breaks. Revolutionary has a history of breaking beautifully straight into an assault. If he has now started to take protective measures, who could blame him? He's only a horse and they are not very bright.

I can watch his last start and see strategy in action. He is soooo cool and brave, I suspect his humans were thinking: Let's be sure nothing happens to him at the break. We want him to forget all the muggings, so just take him out safely then goose him to be sure we're not teaching him to break slowly.

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 14:10:31 GMT

Mary,

"Coldfacts, surely you are joking. Verrazano is a nice horse, but to place him in a league of his own is quite frankly ridiculous."

Are you sure you targeted the right contributor?

I made no such claim.

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 14:08:48 GMT

Closer,

"the horse could have wired this field and won by 10 if he was allowed to do his own thing up front."

Bellamy Road won the Wood by 17 3/4L in a New Stakes Record and was an also ran in the Derby.

Empire Maker won the FL Derby by 9 1/2L and finished second in the Derby.

Speculation regarding margin of victory is meaningless.

Robinm,

"He will be the only colt going into the Derby undefeated."

Obvious question is, Relevance?

Gemologist, Indian Charlie and the great Native Dancer to name a few entered the Derby undefeated and exited defeated.

Seattle Slew, Barbaro, Big Brown, Smarty Jones to name a few entered the Derby undefeated and exited undefeated.

There is no guarantee of wining the Derby even with an undefeated record.

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 13:47:57 GMT

Bigtex,

You are extremely brave to be focused on War Academy.

He was sired by Giant's Causeway who bred 194 mares in 2009.

What are the odds of such an overbred stallion siring a Derby winner?

Based on historic data, zero.

Keep your finger crossed he exits the AK Derby sound.

That stated, I hope one on these overbred stallions do produce a Derby winner as it no fun keeping there records.

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 13:42:13 GMT

Ranagulzion,

The pace was Mr. Palmer's undoing but he tried hard and that's all I wanted.

Varrazano toyed with the opposition! I recall him swerving in the stretch while under pressure to sustain his advantage.

Goldencents will ensure an honest pace. It will be the first time he will be facing a colt that will be able to stay with him for 8F.

Thereafter he will be a spent force and will be ripe for picking by the for the ferocious closers.

I hope my big colt Footbridge secures the requisite points in the Bluegrass to make the Derby field.

I am still of the opinion that he has the speed and pedigree to win the Derby.

NB: I know he is only a MSW winner but so was Giacomo.

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Davids — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 07:13:54 GMT

No Flashback for the Derby, it's devastating but arguably good for the horse. There are plenty of races down the track. Still, Orb and Normandy Invasion are nice horses to wish for.

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 05:24:56 GMT

Ranagulzion : Hard to take you seriously when you contradict yourself. Verrazano's 1:50 was him "toying" with the competition but Orb's 1:50 would've been demolished by Dreaming of Julia ? If you really think his 1:50 sets him up to sweep the Derby and the Preakness, then he's going to sweep 2nd place in both races because Orb won in 1:50 by more against IMLD and he did it quite easily. To me, it seems JV was looking around because he wasn't getting the acceleration he wanted from Verrazano, he wasn't putting away Chrisandthecapper who came right back at him on the inside. I think he was looking around to see where Vyjack and NI was. His ride on Verrazano looked very similar with his ride on Quality Road in the Whitney, same panic look behind him to see who's coming to get him. Verrazano was used in his win, it was a nice gutty win but it was not an easy win. Good luck with your money on him in the Derby.

Oh and A.P. Indy horses can win the Derby if it's a horse you picked otherwise, they should all skip the TC and wait for the summer races ? lol.

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Owlbet — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 02:20:27 GMT

In 1972 Meadow Stable and trainer Lucien Lauren had classic wins in the Preakness & Belmont with Riva Ridge.

In 1973 Meadow Stable and trainer Lucien Lauren won the Triple Crown with Secretariat.

Flash forward to 2012, I'll Have Another and Doug O'Neill won two of the three legs of the Triple Crown.

Could it be possible that Goldencents and trainer Doug O'Neill will put together the golden combination required to sweep all three legs of the Triple Crown?

Rick Pitino's Louisville is the favorite versus Michigan in the NCAA college championship game on Monday night. Can his horse do the same on the first Saturday in May?

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Owlbet — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 02:07:40 GMT

Let's see! How many have fallen off the Derby trail to date....

There's Violence and Shanghai Bobby and Hear the Ghost and John Velazquez and....

Oops, John isn't a horse.

Heal up soon, John! Orb & Verrazano are counting on you.

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Closer — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 01:03:03 GMT

I assume Pletcher will have V razor sharp for the Derby and he may very well take the lead.If he's not in front you can bet your life he'll be breathing down the neck of whoever wants the top.I envision V taking full advantage of his high cruising speed.

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Closer — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 00:44:22 GMT

Who will be the speed in the Derby? I can only see 4 horses that might go for the lead---Verrazano,Goldencents,Itsmyluckyday or Flashback.I don"t think Super NN will run in the Derby.

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bigtex — Sun, 07 Apr 2013 23:46:18 GMT

Verrazano showed me what I was hoping to see from him, turn of foot. When he wants to run, he can. Wouldn't it benefit him to wear blinkers perhaps?

I don't think we saw his best in the final 1/8th even though he ran 12.55. The final 3/8ths from the preps:

Wood Memorial – slow pace – 36.53

Santa Anita Derby – fast pace – 38.29

Florida Derby – slow pace – 37.98

Louisiana Derby – fast pace – 38.44

Sunland Derby – fast pace – 37.58

Spiral – slow pace – 38.98

Looking at these times, I'm not as impressed with Orb as I was. I also don't think we've seen the last of Vyjack. Personally, I think the Derby winner for this year was unfortunately scratched from the SA Derby. Now, I'd love to see a WOW race from War Academy!

This year's Kentucky Derby seems pretty wide open right now.

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Sun, 07 Apr 2013 22:18:34 GMT

Johnny Velazquez, I hope he is okay. What a terrible time for this to happen to him.

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Sun, 07 Apr 2013 22:08:23 GMT

Coldfacts,

I don't know if you recall that Fusaichi Pegasus' Wood Memorial was a huge effort that probably cost him the Preakness as it was too much to ask him for three similar type performances in seven weeks, consequently Red Bullet, a colt that he blew away in that fast run Wood, skipped the Derby and turn the tables on him in the Preakness. Verrazano's victory was a well measured performance that should set him up for a sweep of the Derby and Preakness ...thats what the difference in running times will produce.

I omitted to mention Overanalyze as still being on my Derby radar. Normandy Invasion's runner-up effort has vindicated the Remsen, suggesting that Mike Repole's Dixie Union colt is going to shine at Oaklawn Park on Saturday.

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Sun, 07 Apr 2013 20:23:29 GMT

Coldfacts,

I am quite happy with Verrazano's facile victory in the Wood ...Johnny V was looking around several times, toying with the opposition on the backstretch then gave the colt a hand ride up the lane. It was a thing of beauty ...saving a lot for the first Saturday in May. I tell you right now, barring injury thats my Derby horse and I'm really confident that he'll oblige. I'll be paying attention to the progress of Will Take Charge, Rydilluc and Itsmyluckyday ...as well as keeping an eye on the Baffert camp with Govenor Charlie and Flashback. I would like to see Super Ninety Nine in the Derby as the "pace police" and wish that Shanghai Bobby was there for the same reason.

As I told you before, your horse Mr Palmer (grandson of AP Indy) is best suited to the summer races at Saratoga.

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Linda in Texas — Sun, 07 Apr 2013 18:37:42 GMT

Slew you had Goldenscents in your post. Nailed what he needed to do.

I never disagree with anything you say. When you say it, i listen.

I don't think that was Lava Man at all ponying Goldencents. I looked real hard and don't think my eyes deceived me.

Black Onyx,really really like glad Slew and Mary agree. I was afraid someone would test me on my choice. He only has 50 points so far. Verrazano and Orb now both have 150. And Flashback yesterday in his appearance looked to me like they put him on a diet. He was not filled out in his chest as usual. Maybe that was just the angle. The whip shying he did twice really didn't help. Went back and watched the rerun 3 times. Swaggerjack is a hefty fella. Especially in his hind quarters and not shabby in his shoulder muscles either. I liked him.

Best not to put all your coins on one horse right now. Save a little for a surprise. And don't forget Lines of Battle, we have not watched him race here on our soil against 'our's and may not get to until the Derby. That could be a real test.

Thanks Steve,anxiously awaiting your next list. Pretty much know who will be 1 and 2 :). If i am wrong on those 2 i ought to just pack my bags and go home.

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

robinm — Sun, 07 Apr 2013 18:30:57 GMT

Mary; I find it interesting that you acknowledge that horses do what they have to do to win, but continue to question Verrazano's ability; a horse that has done nothing BUT win. He will be the only colt going into the Derby undefeated.

IMO, Verrazano defeated Normandy Invasion as easily (or not) as Revolutionary defeated Mylute. For sure though, Revolutionary had the more impressive gallop out.

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Sun, 07 Apr 2013 17:30:33 GMT

Dr. D: No Flashback did not win at 9f. So what about 10f?

Now, Zen's Tapit...will be beaten by Zen's Bernardini who may get 12f. Looking forward to 2015!

I was thrilled for the O'Neill Stable and Goldencents. I just knew he could do it...but that didn't look like Lava Man taking him to post. But the Man is on his way back to Kentucky...and he done good last year!

I personally think Verrazano just might be a freak, and surprise us all.

And why do we talk about times of a race when none of our recent winners set the pace, but were victims to it?

Black Onyx, by Rock Hard Ten, boasts Roberto, Princequillo, Mr. P, Slew, Secretariat, and Damascus. Plus he's really handsome.

Vyjack bled, and it robbed him of his usual explosive finish. We'll have to see what they do for him.

And Declan's Warrior really stepped up big in the Bayshore, even though I was hoping to find him entered in the Wood. He's bred to go long.

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JorgeG — Sun, 07 Apr 2013 15:59:55 GMT

Verrazano = Gemologist.

1.- Orb

2.- Will Take Charge/Goldencents

3.- Flashback/Govenor Charlie

4.- Oxbow/Black Onyx

re: Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Sun, 07 Apr 2013 15:26:42 GMT

I can't forget that in the La. Derby, Revolutionary's gallop out was something to behold, beautiful.