Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Goldencrest — Sun, 05 May 2013 08:12:32 GMT

Half that field had no business even attempting that derby was laughable to watch them come last quarters in 30 seconds like bad standerbreds

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

leslie j — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 18:44:47 GMT

I like Palace Malice. Curlin went unraced at two. Palace Malice Malice was born in May. He's just begone to get the idea. The rough trips will only toughen him.

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Pedigree Ann — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 01:41:02 GMT

"Although I did not view Palace Malice as the likely winner he ran far better than I had expected off short rest."

Two weeks falls within the time when the remodeling of bone and muscle that he gained from his last race is still there to be used. You let the horse 'rest' too long -4,5,6 weeks - and you lose that extra physical progression.

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

predict — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 15:14:02 GMT

Cassandra.Says,

Good point, I agree, can't imagine what genetic difference the number of breedings would make. But, when it comes to genetics I try to keep an open mind, mainly because we know alot yet so little about this incredible process. Especially inlight of some recent studies that have concluded that environment does have an effect on outcome in mice breedings. Who would have thought?

I always appreciate your knowledgeable posts and have a question for you; Do you know if Giant's Causeway's offspring are more or less successful when he is crossed with a mare that has RAN present?

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 12:03:48 GMT

There is no doubt Giant's Causeway is a great sire. He just has a very poor Kentucky Derby record with starters and their associated finishing positions. (Off the board)

Of the 1453 mares he bred between 2002 to 2009, the resulting foal crops have produced 5 Derby starters and none have hit the board. (Average of 181 mare bred per year)

He contested all but one of his 13 starts on turf. He is probably a better turf/synthetic sire.

With his record in the Derby I would avoid using his horses in the top spot if and when they make the field.

He is not the only stallion that has exceeded 140 mares bred each year that has not sired a Derby winner.

For those stallions, more mare bred means less chance of a Derby winner.

I do not make this up as the cold facts are there to verify the findings.

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 11:45:36 GMT

Davids,

I noticed you have Normandy Invasion ranked #2.

Like Palace Malice he enters the Derby with only a maiden victory to his credit. Giacomo was the last horse to win the Derby with such status. Interestingly he was also a deep closer.

Based on NI last three races, he gives the impression that he lacks the will to win. The really good deep closers always find a way to get their heads on the winning portion of the line. He does not give the impression he will ever get there in time.

His sire Tapit sire 170 mares in 2009. Stallions associated with such large books have not produced many horses that have made the top four.

NI is a nice colt but he has major hurdles to clear to make the board.

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 11:26:29 GMT

Forbidden Apple,

It appears you are now harboring serious dislikes for the Coldfacts. LOL

I see you have change my posting ID to Cold Opinions. Have you been taking tips from the KY VET?

Be not quick to anger at it lies in the lap of the foolish!

I guess my description continues to widen. I am a back stretch worker with cold opinions on various subjects. Convoluted am I?

I am still awaiting the answer to my back worker stretch question?

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 11:09:56 GMT

Forbidden Apple,

With all due respect Sir, I acknowledged that in my post. Kindly revisit same.

War Academy finished last and so did Delhomme. They at least ran on dirt. I am making no excuses for Footbridge but is was by far his worst performance and it was on a surface that his pedigree suggest he should have performed.

With synthetic a horse has to adapt or is likely it will deliver either a poor or substandard performance. It's the nature of the beast.

Mr. Bafrret and Mr. Pletcher run far better programs than Mr. McLaughlin. The placements and consistency of their charges far supersede those of the trainer you so strongly defend.

Mr.. McLaughin is not the only trainer on which I criticisms.

You clearly like his program and I understand you fury.

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

tjconway — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 08:03:43 GMT

The Florida contingent of 3-year-olds looks the best right now. That being said, I like Orb even more. His times are slow but he went wide in his races; and besides,everybody else's time is slow. Orb's bottom female line "Rocks"...Unbridled, Damascus, Laughter(Bold Ruler), Shennanigans(Native Dancer)....Hope he can zig-zag through traffic!

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Sail On — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 04:24:31 GMT

It's still too early to settle on derby picks. Maybe more horses should withdraw. wouldn't mind seeing the Kitten in this, was he nominated? At this point it looks like Verazzano runs away with it with Revolutionary and Normandy Invasion ties for second, and a toss up for third with Java and Golden hanging in there. The rest, including Vyjack should he actually run will be also rans.

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 02:50:44 GMT

Giant's Causeway is the leading stallion in the world and has sired champions and/or classic winners in eight countries. He has led the North American general sire list 3 times with 8 crops having raced through 3 years.

It reminds me of General Jack D. Ripper in Dr. Strangelove angsting over loss of "our precious bodily fluids."

To say he's over-used because he has not sired one of ten particular horses is ridiculous. More than 99% of all stallions have not sired one of those particular 10 horses.

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

robinm — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 02:44:50 GMT

predict: I don't think Uncaptured or Super Ninety Nine are going, but in regards to "99", being a Baffert horse, you never know.

Verrazano wasn't on anyone's list 12/12 as he hadn't run yet. I doubt too many will be leaving him off now.

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 02:32:58 GMT

Mary

I think Palace Malice and Java's War have the best distance pedigrees. I think Revolutionary has the best Derby pedigree. It still comes down to talent, speed, stamina, stride, determination, a good ride and a little luck. Plenty of Derby winners didn't appear to have the best pedigree. Pedigree is a little overrated unless it is a sprinter's pedigree but I do have my own pedigree pet peeves while being careful not to let that be the prime determining factor. You can also have a great distance pedigreee and be only really good sprinting. If you love Revolutionary otherwise, then his pedigree is a bonus.

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

predict — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 00:26:32 GMT

It has been an interesting road to the Derby so far, I find it interesting that of the top twenty two year olds that Steve listed on 12/12/12 only six have made it into the top twenty in the point system for the Derby. Those are:

Normandy Invasion

Uncaptured

Overanalyze

Goldencents

Frac Daddy

Super Ninety Nine

Think I will play this group as tri and super box come Derby day, just for the fun of it.

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 14 Apr 2013 22:44:47 GMT

Departing is out, not being considered for Derby, it appears.

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 14 Apr 2013 20:42:09 GMT

Departing will have to go onto my list. He might have a chance to make the field.

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Sun, 14 Apr 2013 17:01:50 GMT

Steve,

IT'S TIME TO JOIN THE "EH" TEAM!!!!

Looking forward to your list and analysis of this well bred colt with a colorful owner(everyone should check out the post race interview--very funny).

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Forbidden Apple — Sun, 14 Apr 2013 16:50:54 GMT

Cold Opinions,

I believe Footbridge finished last! I think it's time to move on and quit mentioning his name as if he was anything more than a maiden winner. You trashed another trainer for no reason at all. Take a look at Harty's record, enough said.

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Sun, 14 Apr 2013 16:13:46 GMT

Dr. D, out of your picks, the ones with the pedigree for longer distance are Revolutionary, Itsmyluckyday, and maybe Goldencents, not sure about him. I'm throwing Black Onyx in the mix too. There are others with okay pedigrees, but the above mentioned horses are superior. Too bad War Academy was pulled up, loved his pedigree. My favorite horse is still Revolutionary, no reason to change right now.

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 14 Apr 2013 14:12:40 GMT

Chief P

You're way ahead of the game if you're right, and you often are right. I'm leary of eliminating anyone yet unless I absolutely don't think they'll get 10f in anywhere near a good time. Still a long ways to go for me. I just hope I catch the right bus, and on time.

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sun, 14 Apr 2013 11:37:07 GMT

Footbridge finished last and I have just finished consuming a large plate of crow. He back out of it by the half mile in what were modest fractions.

Could his poor performance be related to the track? Post-race reports will tell.

Although I did not view Palace Malice as the likely winner he ran far better than I had expected off short rest. Those who liked him got a bad beat as I though he was home.

AS specified in a previous post, when Mr. McPeek was busy referring to Verrazano as freak, he would have been rushing to fine tune his program for his colt Java’s War as he ran a big race in the TBD.

War Academy was pulled up and walked off. I hope he is OK. In a previous post I highlighted concerns for the colt and doubted whether he would exit the race sound. Horses from overbred stallions are less likely to make the Derby field and if they do, they are usually none factors. Giant’s Causeway bred 194 mares in 2009 and it appears he will be without a Derby starter.

Dan’s Legacy is just outside the top 20. His sire Medaglia D’ Oro also bred 194 mares. If Dan’s Legacy does not draw into the field his sire Medaglia D’ Oro will also be without a starter.

Who would back Dan’s Legacy with confidence if he draws into the race?

Mr. Pletcher has four in the Derby and will account for 25% of the field yet again. He rarely wins when he has so many starters but I hope 2013 will be an exception as I really like Revolutionary.

On to Louisville!

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Sun, 14 Apr 2013 07:54:57 GMT

Mary:

Genetics has gone way past us. Recessive and dominant, for instance, are sooooo last century, and 'now' geneticists don't think there is any such thing as a gene.

We went for a century opining about what might be behind the changes we observed in phenotypes. Then came the electron microscope. The changes represented such a quantum leap that a lay person couldn't keep up, so too many of us hugged our Mendelian guesses like a security blanket and pretended it still described the elusive reality.

There are still people around who think bay is dominant and chestnut is recessive.

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

trackjack — Sun, 14 Apr 2013 05:16:21 GMT

Coldfacts:

I appreciate your thoroughness looking for live exotic players. Just trying to have some fun with names. Good Luck with your Derby selections.

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Sun, 14 Apr 2013 03:27:22 GMT

trackjack : I'm now at 185 in the Winstar - had Overanalyze which helped a lot. I've got a pretty good chance in the Derby I think: Orb, Verrazano, Revolutionary, Overanalyze, Mylute and Goldencents.

re: Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 14 Apr 2013 02:57:14 GMT

Looks like at least one will get in with 20 points. It won't be Carve because they didn't nominate him. Very close between my top five and I could shake them up and roll them out and be happy with any order. Training, physicality, and final pps will narrow it down to two or three to key on and they won't necessarily be from my current top five.

1. Revolutionary- Borel would be a great fit for his style and courage.

2. Verrazano- I like him better all the time. It just feels like he toys with the opposition.

3. Java's War- Powerhouse performance but he really likes Keeneland.

4. Palice Malice- Could really take to CD surface.

5. Orb- Gets the job done.

6. Itsmyluckyday-Could peak Derby day and surprise.

7. Vyjack-Talented.

8. Overanalyze-Another that was unimpressive first race of the year, regaining form, could also peak at the right time.

9. Lines of Battle-Depends on when they get to CD and how he trains on the track.

10. Normandy Invasion-Wavering on if he is 10f or just 9f.

11. Mylute-Ped seems iffy.

12. Frac Daddy-I think he might like CD based on pedigree and stride.

13. Goldencents-Glazed, plain, apple fritter or sprinkles on top? Don't know what to make of him. I thought he was a miler but last was good at 9f.