Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Tue, 23 Apr 2013 09:38:01 GMT

CHIEF:

We're breeding a hybrid of several other breeds. It always goes fastest in the first couple of dozen generations.

We do not, in fact, have many long-standing records, although the increments by which records are broken are getting shorter. Were I looking into it, I would prefer to look at track records.

One very good reason records aren't falling like autumn leaves is the increased sensitivity in the current time to animal welfare. Tracks feel they are being judged by their casualty figures and are grooming their tracks accordingly. Artificial tracks are slower and have significantly fewer breakdowns.

When Mahmoud set his Darby record the track was concrete. When Lammtara broke it, the turf was watered.

However, I think inbreeding is the major culprit. Consider the huge leaps in the quality of horses when the Americans raided GB and the Continent for WWI refugees; all those dynastic French mares. Think of Nasrullah, Princeqillo, Nearctic, Mahmoud taking the breed to a new plateau with outcross blood that landed in the American gene pool like a lit match in gasoline.

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Tue, 23 Apr 2013 09:12:53 GMT

Mary and Ann:

I think the observation is correct that most frequently in our middle distance winners the staying blood is on the bottom.

I'd ascribe this to market conditions. Foals by our staying stallions just don't sell well enough; people willing to wait for a colt to mature are probably breeding their own. Where's our Princequillo sire line? Blenheim? Ribot? Roberto? Count Fleet? Affirmed? Round Table?

Hail to Reason maybe still in training.

Perhaps we can test the hypothesis by watching what the Japanese succeed in doing with our staying blood, since they own most of it.

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Tue, 23 Apr 2013 09:00:21 GMT

Pedigree Ann:

Before seeing your post, I also went back to 2000 but got a different total using different parameters: elite mares, unraced, ordinary winners. I was looking for mares ranked in the top ten on the year-end handicaps.

I've been a few places where black type doesn't mean much, it may be earned from a sales stakes funded by a small sales company or a sire stakes for which only a handful are eligible. Someone who would think it useful to study an unfiltered group of "stakes winning mares" doesn't get around much. It's not all Aqueduct, Belmont, Santa Anita, Gulfstream, Hialeah and Woodbine.

I get two elite mares among the 13 dams: Dalicia (G3 wnr) and twice G2-pl La Ville Rouge.

Taken with the two more minor stakes winners, the good mares are sure hitting above their weight!

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Tue, 23 Apr 2013 07:26:50 GMT

In the past 20 years, 50 high-class mares per crop (GSW/LW) have gone to stud and roughly 15,000 uncelebrated mares. (It's 3:00 a.m. and I'm winging the numbers.)

Our Derby fields are drawn from the offspring of 1,000 aces and 300,000 'just mares.' And yet the great mares make their presence felt in spite of the overwhelming odds against it and are much better than 300 to 1.

I have been looking at the SW mares' production figures for years and thinking about fooling with them. I would like to see how their progeny compare with their sisters' foals and their daughters' foals. That should even out some of the SW mares advantages in access to stallions and will often mean they have identical rearing on the same pasture.

Somehow I always found something better to do, fortunately.

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Forbidden Apple — Tue, 23 Apr 2013 02:20:40 GMT

Ranagulzion,

When has Verrazano run fast and then finished strongly? In the Wood he ran slow and then finished slow. I can't wait to see how he reacts to several other fast colts running with him. And down the stretch they come.

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Tue, 23 Apr 2013 01:33:08 GMT

Ranagulzion : How will those races prove the system to be ineffective ? As many many people have told you, fillies were not kept out of the Derby, their connections made that decision. You need to stop living in the past. This new points system worked well for what it was designed to do. Does it need tweaking yes, but not much. Just because you didn't get what YOU wanted doesn't mean it's not working. If Churchill Downs gave you the authority to pick the field for the derby, you'd have 5 sprinters, 7 Fillies and 8 Colts... all descendants of Hyperion and all trained by Todd Pletcher.

The only thing this new points system altered was it prevented you from proclaiming the Triple Crown winner in January like you do every year because you pick horses who won a G1 as a 2 two year old. This year and going forward, you actually have to handicap your Triple Crown winner. Is it Verrazano or Overanalyze ?? Come on, I know you're itching to say it.

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

KY VET — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 19:56:32 GMT

He does have some major negatives. Historically high profile mares do not produce Derby winners. -coldcuts comment...........the contrarian, doesnt realize comparing 10 or 20 high profile mares to thousands, just might mean its a numbers thing.......these "facts" that this guy gives.....are totally insane.................bad science!

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 17:33:15 GMT

JayJay 21 Apr 2013 11:49 PM

Bury your head in the sand like the proverbial ostrich, all you want but the exclusion of top fillies and the Illinois Derby contestants has altered the Derby field significantly. The depreciation should become clearer to lethargic minds and those in denial after the Kentucky Oaks and Preakness, even the Belmont Stakes are run.

Cassandra.Says 22 Apr 2013 12:07 AM

Interesting and informative post. You cited Algorithms as an example and I'd say that most of the AP Indy line 3YO colts appear to be thus affected as consistent late developers. Along with Agotithms there was Consortium, Crossbow, Stefanoatsee, Casual Trick and this season the prominent one is Flashback, out with a knee chip.

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 16:58:24 GMT

Ranagulzion

“I know that you view Will Take Charge as a "slow poke. He has a far better shot at embellishing your exotics than Charming Kitten”

You might just have a point.

Will Take Charge: A big colt with a grinding running style and sufficient speed to be effective at the Derby distance. If he can grind at a 12.5 seconds pace for the last 3F he must have a great chance. He is not very fast but has plenty of foundation and strides that cover lots of ground.

He does have some major negatives. Historically high profile mares do not produce Derby winners. In his only effort at CD he finished last in the slowly run Kentucky Jockey Club Stales. On the positive side, fellow Derby entrant Frac Daddy was 2nd and Java War was an also ran in the KJCS.. WTC’s sire Unbridled Song was the sire of Eight Bells who was runner up to Big Brown.

Unbridled is the grandsire of Will Take Charge. He is undoubtedly the greatest extension of Mr. Prospector. He sired Derby winner grindstone; who in turn sired Belmont winner Birdstone; who sired Derby and Belmont winners Mine

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Plod Boy Phil — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 15:28:42 GMT

Does anyone really think that any information shared here by bloggers or Steve or anyone else really in any forum for that matter impacts the Kentucky Derby win pool ?

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Pedigree Ann — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 14:01:28 GMT

Mary - in some hypotheses the position counts. I haven't seen any reliable evidence for those hypotheses, so I will stick to proven genetics, thank you.

You can get the vast majority of your genes from any ancestor; position is important only for one pair of chromosomes and mitochondrial DNA. And no one has demonstrated that that pair of chromosomes or mDNA have THE dominating influence on the genotype or phenotype or racing abilities of the horse produced. People have hypothesized that this is so, but not proven it.

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 12:00:53 GMT

Cassandra.Says good post thats another reason I think unraced as 2yos colts will begin to win the Kentucky Derby.

The graded stakes 2yo winners of today are put thru the grind, and very few of them are better than they were as 2yos.One solution a long rest between their last 2yo race and 3yo race an example Ill Have Another last season.

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 11:56:23 GMT

Mary you wrote that someone will break Secretariats 3yo records.I doubt it, the comercialization of breeding is difficult to change,I dont think there will be a triple crown winner unless they change the rules for the TC.

Sorry I dont know if Hitler used survival of the fittest to convince his minions to follow him into darkness.

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 04:07:11 GMT

I sense nobody is actually resistant to cautions that three-year-olds' bones are not mature but underestimate it as a factor. Let me try to paint a picture of the most extreme example.

The mature horse's cannon rises like a pedestal and spreads out to make a platform of solid bone to cradle the knee and handle the concussion shock on the foreleg.

The 2-3 year old's leg isn't like that. There's a bone platform under MOST of the knee, then there's a space and two little bones on either side, the splint bones, that look like thin carrots and just float loose. They are attached to the cannon bone by ligaments. (They are the remnants of two of the other cannon bones when horses had three toes.)

The ligaments holding the splint bones in place gradually calcify until there is solid bone wall-to-wall. In the meantime, part of the knee drops onto a yielding platform (think breaking a stick over your knee) and the splint and its ligaments are vulnerable to passing but painful conditions up to and including a fracture, which is what took Algorithms out of training last year.

It wasn't a sign of unsoundness in Algorithms, just youth in a May 8th foal. During the calcification process, lumps of calcium often irritate the ligament. This isn't hereditary; it can happen to any young horse.

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 03:49:48 GMT

Thanks to the new points system, looks like we're in for a treat with the best 3 yr olds this year. Whoever wins, it's well deserved. IMO, we have a very evenly matched field. No sprinters, no free pass from 2 yr old races, the only change I'd like to see is the inclusion of the Illinois Derby in the qualifying races list. It doesn't matter if the race doesn't produce derby winners, it should be included. Hopefully that'll change next year.

Looking forward to Steve's report of workouts next week...

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 03:19:57 GMT

HORSEPLAYERS who are bitching about the genetics talk: the game is breeding, the racing is just the scoring system.

Don't ignore the breeding; it is an angle most of your competition ignores. That's the best kind of angle to play. I don't think too many people overlook a Kitten's Joy making its first start on turf, but there are less touted angles.

A Most Happy Fella in the mud . . . still brings a smile to my face. The best angle for the trots would be driver shift to Doug Brown if you were the only one who knew about it, but unfortunately they printed it in the program and it never put a 50-1 shot in your Tri. There was a great mud sire, Winning Shot, who paid my rent for a couple of years at Hastings.

Steve is spoiling "Betting on the Pretty One" when he sizes them up Derby week and tells everybody.

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 02:59:24 GMT

Ky vet:

I don't KNOW of anyone interval training, but someone said Baffert trains his the way he used to train, like quarter horses. (Baffert, too? D. Wayne used to train quarter horses.) And I commented that some of the Bafferts run like interval trained horses, notably Bodemeister, reeling off fast furlongs but unable to quicken further when challenged.

Why do you think it couldn't be done at the track?

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 02:38:02 GMT

I've seen a lot of Derbys come and go where it looked in advance that there would be no pace.

It always seems to materialize.

These 20 horse fields feature rough breaks which give us several horses spooked and bolting, less amenable to being rated than ever before in their lives.

There's always a reward for getting these green colts out early when it helps you avoid traffic jams and scrums or being fanned 8 wide on the clubhouse turn.

Somebody besides Verrazano will be leaving, even if I'm not sure who.

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 01:35:35 GMT

Chief, yes a horse will top Secretariat's 3 year old record.

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 01:32:18 GMT

Chief Picawinna, from Darwin to Hitler, survival of the fittest. Please don't go there, very dark.

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 01:25:16 GMT

El Kabong, yes I expect to see Departing in the Preakness, of course depending on what happens in the KD.

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 00:45:05 GMT

Pedigree Ann, I don't think you get it. It all depends on where they are placed in the pedigtree. Vyjack, no.

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 00:33:44 GMT

I'm going to stay with Revolutionary and Govenor Charlie; both beautifully bred. I'll put a couple of others in the mix, not sure yet.

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mike Relva — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 00:11:12 GMT

KY Vet

At least Cassandra hasn't bashed Hanson's owner in awhile. lol

re: Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

KY VET — Sun, 21 Apr 2013 22:56:34 GMT

cassandra......you are very smart....i can tell........but if you think horses are inteval trained at the track, well.................