Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Uncle Smiley — Sun, 12 May 2013 23:39:49 GMT

OTTBsRock:

Nice choice in the Derby! Looks like he skips the Preakness.

What makes you positive about the Belmont, should it for him happen?

His lineage points to success on the grass.

Uncle Smiley

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 16:03:35 GMT

Relax, Steve. Buttons are a far cry from a blue tail.

Rachel and Zenyatta survived buttons for a lot of races, no?

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Greg R — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 05:00:00 GMT

In case of an off track, whose picks go flying out the window? Who would stick with the same picks?

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Greg R — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 04:57:19 GMT

Will Take Charge disappointed in his Monday work, so much so that I'm dropping him as my "most likely to improve" colt. Orb seems sharper than ever. According to those who have seen him in the flesh this week, he looks stunning. As much as I hate to land on the likely chalk, I think he's set to run a peak effort. I liked the look of Luckyday in his Chll. gallop and still look for him to rebound with a great effort. So maybe it's the year for the Florida horses. Don't know what to make of Verrazano's readiness for 1 1/4 mi. and wouldn't believe anyone who said he/she did know. We'll see, said Mr. Obvious. Oxbow is not getting over his idiosyncracies and the shine has sort of gone off for me.

Mike from Michigan: Absolutely, one of the best Oaks fields in years! Several of these talented girls are free-running types or pressers, though. I could see a faster pace than the Derby. Which one would be most likely to bat cleanup? Also, any danger that Dreaming of Julia ran too fast at Gulfstream? Horses don't normally run that well twice in a row.

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Sail On — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 16:26:06 GMT

Baffert out of the Derby? How does that effect the race?

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

robinm — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 06:47:51 GMT

Where is Lines of Battle? I've heard no mention of him this week. Is he even in Louisville?

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Vistoso — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 01:56:03 GMT

But Matt comments still are very interesting and that also means that Verrazano who a lot of people think is not bred for 1 1/4 are wrong as well, so all in all this means what in means an extra piece of data for people to consider in boxing their choice Horses

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Monarchos Matt — Sun, 28 Apr 2013 21:53:17 GMT

Pedigree Ann- all very valid points, just pointing that out for what it's worth. Considering that the last three Derby winners have all come into the race with +340 Tomlinson numbers, it is at least worth consideration, especially since those two horses are likely to be 30-1 or higher.

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 28 Apr 2013 15:37:32 GMT

Cassandra -

Hoist the Flag ran spectacularly at 3. First he won an allowance race at Bowie, then ran in the Bay Shore on March 20 on the Aqueduct main when the race was a prep for the Gotham and Wood. He blasted clear of a field that included Droll Role, Jim French, and Bold Reason, G1-type winners later in the season, several of which filled places in the Triple Crown races. Before he put a hind foot leg down wrong pulling up from a workout and shattered an ankle, he never showed unsoundness.

Hoist the Flag was a son of the champion 3yo of 1965, the diminutive Tom Rolfe, winner of 16 of 31 races from 2 to 4, including the Preakness and the Aqueduct H (the 9f prep for the 10f Woodward).

Hoist the Flag was the last major US SW out of a War Admiral mare, being foaled in 1968. A full sister of his won 3 of 22 starts; his elder half-brother, Deck Hand, won 13 of 80 starts lifetime, including the Discovery H at Aqueduct and the San Marcos H at Santa Anita. Other half-siblings won 5 of 46 and 6 of 38 (that a SP 'chaser). The dam, Wavy Navy, had a 35/2-5-8 record lifetime.

The second dam was the French import Triomphe who only made 2 starts in the US and won them both, including the New York Turf Writers H, the premier 'chase at Saratoga. She had won on the flat and over fences in France. Both her sire's sire and her dam's dam were of the old-style French breeding, before the Phalaris invasion, full of stoutness and soundness.

Hoist the Flag was not bred to be a precocious 2yo at sprint distances; he was a champion at 2 with class. Standing 16.1, he was a genetic puzzle, as his sire and damsire stood no more than 15.2 and his sire's sire was 'Il Piccolo' (the little one) Ribot. Perhaps those more sizable 'chasers in his female ancestry? As to funny hocks, his 'chasing second dam was by sickle-hocked Tourbillon (who was also no sweetheart).

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Sun, 28 Apr 2013 14:17:48 GMT

Cassandra: Scat Daddy is 9, and at stud.

Frac Daddy is 3, in the 2013 Derby, and had a chunk of heel removed by another horse who ran up on him in another race prior to the AR Derby. That might explain his tailing off in a race.

Lines Of Battle will not get to Churchill until Wednesday, and will then be in quarantine. It gives him very little time to adjust to the Churchill track surface.

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 28 Apr 2013 12:38:20 GMT

I've got an open question.

Who's won the Derby with blinkers, and who's won with first-time blinkers?

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Sun, 28 Apr 2013 06:28:32 GMT

Langfuhr is 3x3 Nearctic. These usually produce more distance in the stud than on the track.

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Sun, 28 Apr 2013 05:02:02 GMT

Cassandra, Revolutionary's broodmare sire's female line obviously has taken care of the issues you speak of with reference to Hoist the Flag. The line breeding to Hoist the Flag is not extreme.

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Sun, 28 Apr 2013 04:33:04 GMT

KY Vet,

I give you this ...you make me laugh a lot. Its only one week left and we'll see if Normandy Invasion hits the board. He'll have to beat Verrazano, Oveanalyze, Itsmyluckyday, Will Take Charge and Orb. Bring it on my friend (LOL).

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Sun, 28 Apr 2013 02:47:45 GMT

For the record, by their visual efforts and in evaluating their last race, especially shown in the splits of their last 2F's, and in part to their breeding and foundation yada yada yada, these horses have shown me enough to convince me that they will rise to the challenge of the added panel of the Derby Distance and improve on their 9F effort.

Revolutionary

Mylute

Java's War

Goldencents

Normandy Invasion

I believe exacta lies within them.

Door is open for minor awards for

Orb

Verrazano

Vyjack

Charming Kitten

Palace Malace

Will Take Charge

I am tossing altogether

Overanalyze

Falling Sky

Itsmyluckyday

Govenor chuck

Lines of Battle

Frac Daddy

Black Onyx

Oxbow

Mr X(the yet to be named 20th position unless it is Golden Soul)

From a betting standpoint I love to find one horse that I am most comfortable keying 1, 2, and 3 and build winning and losing scenarios around him based on his running style. Last year I used Dullahan. In the scenario where the pace and stalker held on, I had him closing with other closers who couldn't get their in time. That one worked. I am tossing a coin between Goldencents and Java becasue I believe their running styles will afford them the best race. I know alot of people think Java is in a dangerous zone but I like his style of closing over those who try to close from mid pack(like dullahan). They get caught in traffic at the top of the lane. His stamina and proven acceleration after running a mile should afford him an easier path than those trying to build momentum in the turn in hopes of finding a seem at the top of the lane.Keying one horse to finish in the 1,2, 3 slot is the best way I know to cash an exotic. If your handicapping on that horse is right, you don't have to win. It opens up the door to build the supporting cast in scenarios that support his defeat or victory. I like this better than trying to box a group. Good Luck to you all. If I've tossed your horse, don't worry. My chances of being right again are slim.

(:( say the magic word and win $100.

..../

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

predict — Sun, 28 Apr 2013 02:17:07 GMT

I still like Frac Daddy, only hope is his less than spectacular Feb./ March will be far behind him, and he will be Mc Peeking on Derby day. We don't often hear a success story in the Derby that starts out this way, but this could be a story that is just getting going.

That said, the horse most likely to be in the top three this year is Revoltionary. He reminds me somewhat of Victory Gallop, a horse I loved back in 1998, what with his athletic ability and ability to shoot through almost any hole that came available. With Calvin up on Revolutionary, this could be an unbeatable combination. I think it was Elliott Walden who campaigned Victory Gallop, and now he is racing manager for Winstar Farms that campaigns Revolutionary. If history repeats itself, we could see a second placing for Revolutionary, or maybe he wins this time, I'm liking this horse more all the time.

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Sat, 27 Apr 2013 19:40:21 GMT

April 23, 12:23 A.M.

That would be Daddy Long Legs, DLL, not Scat Daddy, in case it's not obvious.

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 27 Apr 2013 18:37:45 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

That is very useful. I'm not surprised by those two being on top, though.

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 27 Apr 2013 18:35:52 GMT

Matt - Any number like the Tomlinson depends on data and for a number of the horses in the Derby, the data is limited. Stallions whose first crops are 3 will not have have offspring tested in long races yet. And one can't always go by the racecourse proclivities - Langfuhr was a miler sort, but has sired a number of 10f+ SWs (Wando, Jambalaya, Interpatation, Marlang).

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Shoe Board Sal — Sat, 27 Apr 2013 16:24:44 GMT

Phil- I agree, Java's War may well have to pass everything in the field to win. That's why I've cooled off on him a lot. He's also a little guy, which some will say makes him more "handy" in traffic. But anyone who has ever watched a head-on of the Derby knows how much paint gets traded, and I'd rather have a horse with some body in there that can take some shoving. That said, I do like the horse, but backwheel only.

Pedigree Ann- your point about Unbridled's Song is well taken, and you didn't even mention the saddest example. But I don't think this automatically DQs Will Take Charge from consideration.

I've heard the buzz and rumors about Will Take Charge being injured or having a setback, and Lukas' uncharacteristic decision to train him up to the race, but I don't believe it. If you look at his workout pattern, it mirrors Oxbow's, except WTC worked the day before the Bluegrass instead of running. So I don't see when they're saying he was hurt. There's no evidence for it.

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Monarchos Matt — Sat, 27 Apr 2013 13:22:56 GMT

While we're discussing pedigree, it bears mention that a horse with a Tomlinson Distance Figure among the top two in the field has won the past three Derbys, and 7 of the past 14. The top two figures in this year's field might surprise you:

Lines of Battle- 352

Oxbow- 336

And there is a considerable drop off after those two. While I would certainly be surprised to see either of those two win this year, they could certainly offer some value in exotics and outright bets.

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sat, 27 Apr 2013 06:13:26 GMT

Plod Boy Phil,

“When will you stop comparing 2 yr old MSW winers going into and winning 2 yr old stakes races?”

Nobody likes a wise ass and this is the reason assess are not sent to school. I know I come across as wise ass in many instances but I have no option due to questions similar to one the above.

How many glorified 2YO Allowance races Secretariat and Favorite Trick won en route to HOY titles as 2YO?

It’s the Breeder Cup Juvenile glorified Allowance race?

“When will you stop comparing MSW winners with horses that have just a MSW win but which have competed successfully against Graded competition?”

My learned colleague, how do horses with just MSW victories compete successfully against Graded competition if they are not entered in said races?

Nehro broke his maiden as a 3YO and his next start was in the LA Derby where he finished second. If a colt that broke its maiden as 3YO and was entered next in a graded stake, would it be reasonable to compare it to Nehro?

I provided you with a sample list of 10 horses that broke their maidens as 3YOs and whose next starts were in graded stakes. You have clearly failed to appreciate that any comparison to similar MSW winner entering Graded stakes is appropriate.

Below is another list of 10 to support my comparison:

Bernadnin (1st), Curlin(1st) Rags To Riche(1st) Nehro(2nd), Midnight Interlude(1st), Paynter(4th), Bodemeister (2nd), American Act (2nd), Govenor Charlie(1st), Cigar Street(4th)

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Sat, 27 Apr 2013 06:06:50 GMT

And btw, he'll be a magnificent sire for mares saturated with Northern Dancer but not carrying Mr. P. or RaN closer than 4 or 5.

Northern Dancer and sons nicked spectacularly with Ribot and Ribot's sons.

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Sat, 27 Apr 2013 05:36:03 GMT

And now for something a little different . . . on pedigrees. Let's look at Revolutionary as being inbred not to a name but to a horse.

Revolutionary: inbred to Ribot through Hoist the Flag. Inbred to one of the most vicious stallions in the breed through a stallion who inherited that temperament. Inbred to a horse who broke down in training, a champion at two who didn't make it back at three. Hoist the Flag had shocking hocks. In full stride, when his back foot hit the ground the hock sank and swivelled inward until it looked as though the lower leg was being unwound.

Ribot is my number one. For me, if Ribot's in it, it's a good pedigree. If Ribot's in it twice, that's my broodmare. But inbreeding to him? I wouldn't do it, and I wouldn't buy it. But it's only risky. No certainty.

That is why, though, some of you may have noticed, I have been measuring Revolutionary's temperament with slitted eyes. As nearly as I can tell, he has the temperament of a Jedi master and he tracks as straight as he needs to. The bullets have been dodged, he's got the best without the rest.

As important as knowing that this is rarely going to happen is recognizing it when it (rarely) does.

re: Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sat, 27 Apr 2013 05:17:51 GMT

Pedigree Ann,

I actually meant Distaff winner Unbridle Elaine.