Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Tue, 07 May 2013 01:53:54 GMT

Mike from Michigan

It's his loss. The Great Steve Haskin is one of the most knowledgeable and insightful purveyors of horse flesh in the history of the world, and he helps me to make money in The Derby. Phipp, Phipp Hooray, Phipp, Phipp Hooray !!!!

Slew

Dreams do come true. At least the ones while we are awake. Serious Triple Crown candidate but we won't count our chickens before they hatch. Orb is one cool customer, that is for sure. Some good ones are going to take him on in the next two legs though.

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Tue, 07 May 2013 00:06:57 GMT

Zarvona, I agree with all that you posted. You know from my posts that I was a big Revolutionary fan, and also Black Onyx and Govenor Charlie. I put Orb in the mix just because everyone was so high on him. He is a very nice horse. It was upsetting to lose Black Onyx and Govenor Charlie.

Revolutionary is the better horse; but in the KD the best horse does not always win.

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Sun, 05 May 2013 21:14:35 GMT

Oh, and by the way, for all of you who missed out on the 38-1 Kty. Oaks winner, “Princess of Sylmar”, --who got like 20-1 or 19-1 in CD Pool #2, but 38-1 on Oaks Day,--well she was the only 3 year old horse that I looked up the breeding on and that I rated out this year THAT WENT OVER 300 !!, --remember “Violence” rated out at 284, therefore any mare for me over 285 is nice and a consideration and any filly over 300 ranks for me,--as the fillies get an extra 15 points because of 8 extra potential links to “BHXFG” strains from the sir side,--anyway, being where via my scale, she rated out at 403 !! And, thusly yes, I not only had her in the Kty. Oaks, but also in Future Pool #2 !!!

So, if you think “Zarvona”, who hit the Risen Star $2,285.00 exacta; and had the OAKS winner and the Derby winner is full of hot air re all this hoopla over BREEDING investigation, and you are one whom doesn’t think that breeding matters accept from some sire you once heard of, or you just like to needle my posts all year,--where I admit I make a few posting errors with no reviewers or editors here on staff and my old PC, and--those needlings being to the point, where I am seriously debating no longer sharing my thoughts any longer, where 2 TY s a year aren’t that gratifying or rewarding. Yes, I may in the future just read others posts and from here on and no longer contribute as I have stopped in the last 6 weeks, we shall see.

In any event, you have been given many insights into my methodology and there is no reason I need to do your homework for you. Remember, I don’t get paid for sharing this free information, so don’t bother asking how I found “I’ve Struck a Never” at 135-1 or “Princess of Slymar” at 38-1, although I often expressed how I arrived already at “ORB” and “REVOLUTIONARY”,--all using the same methodology,--and although I have to congratulate Steve for ranking these last two mentioned 1-2 in his dozens, I must admit that I had a different 12 all year ‘RATED by breeding for distance’ ranked higher that I expressed many times in my posts, where our lists were often quite different. And, I did share some thoughts regarding Steve’s entries that I thought were way off, which in any event I hope someone on here took note of and saved a few dollars on not making frivolous bets letting others’ thoughts sway you.

So, anyway, good luck from here on boyz and galz. I may get ‘the Derby blog fever’ again come next Feb., we shall see. But, after sharing thoughts this year and having people nit-pick at a post where I got a trainer misplaced or a birthday off,--where one can get all that info yourself, correct my errors and just let them go by, it seems less and less appealing to me to spend the time wasted contributing, where I have to read about editing errors pointed out instead of debating more important issues, forget the 2 hours drafting the info after the hours of research spent. And again, i get little gratification or some TY for the free information that I shared. And with no gratification of a TY or getting paid,--other than at the window, and--with fellow bloggers not just simply taking advantage of my freely offered and shared information and then some TY, it all added up makes contributing less and less important or appealing to me. I think at first it was just seeing the ‘me’ publicly in print on the blog pages and my love for the Derby that attracted me to this blog in the first place, but again, I don’t get paid and I don’t get dates from this site either, lol.

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Sun, 05 May 2013 20:55:40 GMT

Reflections of the 139th Kty Derby:

Firstly, some “Zarvona” quotes:

“Neither “Verrazano” or “Vyjack” are bred to go long”!!!

“None of the milers, “Itsmyluckyday”, “Verrazano”, “Vyjack”, nor “Shanghai Bobby” are bred for distance”. {{…simply meaning bred to retain their speed via stamina over 1 ¼ or longer}} and that Steve Haskin’s early ‘dozen’ lists were full of “MILERS” !!!

“Itsmyluckyday” 9-1 ???, THEY didn’t read my blog post !!!

“Verrazano”, bred by “More Than Ready”, on the sire side,--the ½ or brother of “El Padrino”, who btw again finished 13th in 20 in his Derby,--“WILL NOT WIN the Kty. Derby” !!!…where as you now see, “Verrazano” finished 14th of 19 !!, which was my point all along about being bred or not FOR DISTANCE.

“No horse that ran in the Risen Star will win the Kty. Derby.”

“Normandy Invasion” 9-1 ??? THEY didn’t my blog posts !!!

“No horses without a link to the “BHXFG” strains in this era of breeding will win the Kty. Derby” !!

…Those that were “0 Xs bred to any “BHXFG” strain in this Derby run included: “Normandy Invasion”, respectable run considering, on the lead at the turn--at what near 1 1/8 ??--and finished in $$ 4th , although was NOT the WINNER, as projected, and “Java’s War”, whom basically showed NO GAME AT ALL…

“Normandy Invasion” 9-1 ??? THEY didn’t my blog posts !!!

“Java’s War” 21-1 ??? THEY didn’t my blog posts !!!

“This is a pretty weak group coming out of California and the off the west coast!!!” … Their best contender, “Govenor Charlie” ran at Sunland for the $$, & broke the track record !!! for a 1 1/16 and was later unfortunately scratched from the Kty. Derby.

“Goldencents” 7-1 ??? THEY didn’t my blog posts !!!

6 weeks back ?? I stated, “At this point “Revolutionary” and “Orb” are serious contenders. Would I ordain one or the other at that point in time as The Winner, no.”

2-3 weeks ago ??? I stated, “Hats off to anyone that can beat “Black Onyx”; “Govenor Charlie”; “Orb”; or “Revolutionary”; that they were my Derby picks,--REGARDING PICKING THE WINNER!!!

“Govenor Charlie”; scratched, “Black Onyx”; late scratched, left only 2 players, “Revolutionary” and “Orb”, where one won the Derby and both hit board in the top 3 !!!.

“Revolutionary” 6-1;

“Orb” 5-1 … well, either someone read my blog posts, lol , or Steve’s influence along the horses themselves brought true value.

Next point, it is my true feeling that the best horse in the 139th Kentucky Derby did not win the 139th Kentucky Derby. “Revolutionary” actually out ran this entire field !! Borel, who got “Take Charge Indy” out from the #3 gate last year,--up to 5th in the first turn,--lost this race coming out of the #2 gate and settling in for last of 19 at some c. 20 + lengths behind the leaders and off the pace before even starting his run. Did he really think he was riding “Zenyatta” ???,--who by the way lost her last race for the record of 21 straight wins BY A NOSE employing that exact same style, although as we know it had been her style in many runs.--The rest of the field was too good to get that far behind and although he lost this race by only 1 length, not the post position or the slop,--which was physically handled,--can be used as any excuse. To me, it was purely Calvin “Borail” not going for earlier position. “That’s my take and I’m stickin’ to it”. If “Revolutionary” skips the Preakness and goes to the Belmont,--as he should in my opinion,--he should clearly be the favorite and that no matter what line Battaglia sets !!!

Also, as noted: “Violence” was chosen as my standard in Aug.-Sept. of 2013 to “rate breeding against others”, all following her performance at Sar., and that being breeding for handing DISTANCE from a horse with class that had just won a 7 fur. Msw high $ prep, where we have learned that trainers like testing their 2 yr. old hopefuls ‘at the Spa’!!! Only three horses in comparison ranked higher than “Violence” going into the 139th Kty. Derby, 1 was even, and 2 lesser but in the variance range of acceptable players. Those that ranked higher included, in order for distance: “Forest Giant”; “Black Onyx”; and “Revolutionary”; the one that was equal to “Violence” was “Orb”. The two that fell into the ‘variance range’ of 25 points below “Violence”,--who btw rated at “284”, by my breeding scale,--were “Frac Daddy” and “Falling Sky”. What a sloppy track does to anyone individual horse or if any of these came out of the race injured, or etc., we never know. However, “Forest Giant” actually finishing in the top 10 with his lack of earlier successes did not surprise me.

Finally, even in the year of “Storm Cat’s” death, the curse prevails, no “Storm Cat” bred horse has yet won the Kentucky Derby !!! Both “Black Onyx” and “Govenor Charlie” were her best chance once that the likes of “Bradester”; “Carving”; “Cerro”; “West Hills Giant”; and “War Academy”, and other such as those failed to measure up.

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Sun, 05 May 2013 14:00:49 GMT

Big Tex: I do believe I've completed my assignment....a stone closer shutting down the speed freaks ... in the slop, no less.

Did Orb's hooves ever really touch the ground in that run?

Thankfully, 151k screaming fans did not distract him, and blinkers were unnecessary.

Always felt that as much as folks cite Man O'War and Secretariat as top horses of the 20th century, and as much as I brag on my love of the Slew, the true champion of the 20th Century was the first race horse I ever saw, Citation!

I think we may have seen THE horse of the 21st Century winning the Derby yesterday. God Bless Orb, Shug, the Phipps, and Joel. I am so happy for all of them.

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Sun, 05 May 2013 00:00:05 GMT

YES!!!! ORB wins! Atta Boy!

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mike from Michigan — Sat, 04 May 2013 14:24:02 GMT

@ By A Long Nose......are you serious about Steve or are you just kidding? Let me tell you, I have learned more about thoroughbred racing from Steve than I have anywhere. I know Steve doesn't need my defending, but he gives us much insight throughout the year and I think he can hold his own with any handicapper.....bar none. I really like the fact that Steve has stuck by 'Palace Malice' pretty much most of the year despite some hiccups for this horse. I too, am gonna stick with him in the Derby because I really think he has the talent to compete for the roses. He may or may not win, but he belongs and I am looking forward to watching him motor down the stretch towards the wire.

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Sat, 04 May 2013 13:16:36 GMT

35 years since the last Triple Crown winner. This is what I am aiming for. Orb can run all day, and he'll eventually pass any horse ahead of him. I kept thinking 12f. That's why I want Orb. (and I want my Slew line to shine!)

Did ANYONE have Princess of Sylmar?

Nice payout!

Wise Dan running today? Should be one hell of a day!

Good luck to all...in some one else's words...safe trip to all.

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Sat, 04 May 2013 01:54:46 GMT

So now I understand why Castellano decided to go with Normandy Invasion. Personal reasons, I get it.

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Fri, 03 May 2013 22:53:56 GMT

Bigtex, I'm willing to put a little money. Coldfacts, I think is a Mr. Prospector fan. I like Mr. Prospector as long as there is not a lot of line breeding. I like a Count Fleet/Princequillo cross, Count Fleet on top and Princequillo on the bottom. This is why I am so high on Revolutionary.

Revolutionary, Itsmyluckyday, Will Take Charge and Orb. I'm putting Orb in the mix simply because everyone is so high on him. If his pedigree was reversed, i.e. top of the pedigree on the tail and tail on the top, I'd be high on him too.

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

mz — Fri, 03 May 2013 16:29:55 GMT

OK, I have thrown away my money on Black Onyx, Charming Kitten and Golden Soul. (Re: the latter two, have there been any Saddlers Wells line horses who have won the Kentucky Derby yet? If not, I'm hoping it's time)

Maybe I should just have buried my money in the back yard but it really doesn't matter because IT'S THE DERBY and it's still fun.

Good luck to all. Good trip to all.

P.S. Whoever is there this year, guzzle a couple of the Oaks drinks for me, OK? I didn't really like the mint julips but those Oaks things really, really went down very easily. Wish I was there.

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Stones — Fri, 03 May 2013 16:24:41 GMT

by a long nose.....Lenny, is that you???

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Fri, 03 May 2013 14:51:37 GMT

Dr.D: very disconcerting dream last night...still upset about it...

My favorite...no surprise..has been Orb for several months.

Last night I dreamt Revolutionary won.

Now, where did I put that Tequila?

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Fri, 03 May 2013 00:49:31 GMT

The derby is set! Very happy with the field, thanks to the new points system which worked unbelievably well for its first try. This is the field I wanted to see, 3 yr old colts that actually ran and worked hard for their spot in the Derby. The 2 yr old races no longer has impact and that's how it should be. Anyone who still believes this points system is flawed needs to get out from under their rock. A change was required and this was a very good first step.

As for my bet, I'm going for the gold, have to wait to see how wet it will be though. Looks like there's a good chance it'll be a wet and wild party.

Question for anyone familiar with CD, how does sealing the track affects the "condition" of the track? Does it make it more like a fast track (except wet of course) ?

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Fri, 03 May 2013 00:39:05 GMT

Slew,

Like your pick. I like Goldencents and Java best. I will be playing them with Revolutionary, Mylute and NI for the most part. Knowing your along helps pal. Stay strong down the lane, it's going to take a lot of encouragement to get our little man home. Enjoy the race.

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Thu, 02 May 2013 23:53:41 GMT

I ate two donuts and made out my Derby Dozen. I still don't know what the track condition will be so it could change things. This is based on a fast track. It could also be a peanut butter track and I'd be toast.

1-Revolutionary

2-Itsmyluckyday

3-Orb

4-Java's War

5-Palace Malice

6-Verrazano

7-Overanalyze

8-Charming Kitten

9-Mylute

10-Vyjack

11- Golden Soul

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

TerriV — Thu, 02 May 2013 23:51:47 GMT

Just by an act of fate I happened to be able to attend the Louisiana Derby and found my fondness for Revolutionary because of his impressive pedigree cemented by watching him move. He continues to impress me and I am really gratified that you continue to support him as your number one, Steve. I have to stick with him even though there are so many others that are impressive also.

My son-in-law is a huge Rock Hard Ten fan. We stopped at Lane's End to see him after Breeder's Cup 2010 and he lived up to expectations. So, Black Onyx ending up in post one is a real disappointment. I can only hope he is able to deal with that handicap. He is just gorgeous.

Your pictures in recent articles have been beautiful. I tell you, Steve, you have the best job in the world! And you do it so well. Too many horses to love here but I'll stick with Revolutionary this time. It is a great Triple Crown name, don't you think?

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Alydar — Thu, 02 May 2013 16:21:47 GMT

Oh yeah!!! In the Kentucky Derby anything could happen, and even more in this edition that, with the exception of Overanalyze, doesn´t line up any of the 2 year old colts leaders in 2012. Well, this is my top 3:

1- Palace Malice

2- Verrazano

3- Normandy Invation

But i like a lot too:

Overanalyze

Goldencents and

Orb.

Once again I regret Dreaming of Julia is not a Derby "horse". Good luck to all.

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

By a long nose — Thu, 02 May 2013 15:01:17 GMT

Haskin couldnt pick his nose let alone a winner. The worst handicapper in turf writing. Bar none

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Stones — Thu, 02 May 2013 12:55:55 GMT

I've come around to liking Palace Malice to be in the money, and possibly score an upset. Despite trouble of some sort in every race, he has put up good numbers. Curlin, Mike Smith, a sharp 4f work and blinkers on spells a dangerous horse.

Verrazano could be a super horse, and Orb looks fantastic as well (go Malibu Moon!).

If there is a pace meltdown (which there could be with Falling Sky, Goldencents and Verrazano), look for Java's War to pick up the pieces.

1. Palace Malice

2. Orb

3. Verrazano

4. Java's War

Good luck all!

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Thu, 02 May 2013 11:05:04 GMT

EM James IMO Goldencents did not draw well if he was hoping for a stalking trip.All the quick colts are outside of him and with all the focus on NOT starting from the 1 or 2 hole, I believe one or both of Black Onyx and Oxbow will be hustled out of the gate and close to the front within the 1st 100-150 yards after the break.If the inexperienced(in big races) jockey on Goldenscents tries to restrain his mount in any way from making the lead or lead pack,he could be squeezed back before the first turn and begin a rough trip.He needs to get to the front or press the pace and not be restrained in any way or he could be toast.

Last year O'Neil rode an inexperienced jockey but they started outside in post 19, this year his colt is right in the middle of the field,I think the experienced jockeys will tell you that in the 20 horse field of the KDerby it is better to start outside or closer to the rail without being in 1 or 2 as a rider without much big race experience.

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Giddyup — Thu, 02 May 2013 07:44:36 GMT

I will be rooting for the D Wayne Lukas colts for sure but my pick in this very evenly matched field is going to be Normandy Invasion.

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bigtex — Thu, 02 May 2013 04:26:34 GMT

Between all all of us, couldn't we toss in $50 a head and find us an Oaks horse for $1,400???

Assignments:

Mary - research dam side Princequillo roots

Coldfacts - Northern Dancer pedigree analysis

Dr. D - pedigree analysis to conjure up perfect personality

Ky Vet - scoping

Pedigree Ann - find crosses that produce Sherman tank hind quarters

Fran L - off radar horse that traces back to Arkansas Derby winners

Slew - Build us a closer with speed freak pacing ability

Cassandra.Says - find us that right stride & way of going

The Deacon - cook us up runner for any track condition

Karen in Texas - conformation

Haskin - write the book

Bigtex - drinks &'snacks

Stable name: ???

Derby Dozenites Stable, Blogging to Hogging Winner Circle Stable...

Horse Name: ???

A man can dream can't he??

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Thu, 02 May 2013 03:53:09 GMT

WOW, Black Onyx 50-1. I hope he is 50-1 at post time. No. 1 hole is not bad for him, and Revolutionary in the 3 spot is perfect for the horse and Calvin.

re: Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

KY VET — Thu, 02 May 2013 03:20:39 GMT

Verrazano? in a new york minute?.............your only problem............is its gonna be a KENTUCKY 2 MINUTES!!!!!...........................................................................................................post of the week! me!