Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

plodderman — Wed, 05 Feb 2014 18:14:50 GMT

Undertaker.

You are welcome.

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Old Old Cat — Wed, 05 Feb 2014 00:36:39 GMT

My previous blog should have been in response to the latest Derby Dozen..

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Old Old Cat — Wed, 05 Feb 2014 00:34:48 GMT

Correct me if I am wrong. I beleive the 2013 Derby had at least one horse that was entered by supplemental nomination,(Maybe Golden Soul). I beleive that any supplemental nomination horse can enter only if there is still a vacancy after ALL of the regularly nominated horses have been selected. If that is true, then any regularly nominated horse, even with ZERO points could have entered the Derby ahead of the supplemental(s). Wich if what I think happened is indeed correct, then any regularly nominated horse that had even ONE point could have run in the Derby, which mean that ALL of the Derby qualifier races are relevant.

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

derbygal — Tue, 04 Feb 2014 03:59:51 GMT

Where some 3 Y.O.'s Derby Trail horses MIGHT be racing next. Subject to change.

Cairo Prince- Florida Derby-GP-3/28

Commissioner- Fountain Of Youth S.-GP-2/22

Strong Mandate- Southwest S.-OP-2/17

Vinceremos- Tampa Bay Derby-Tam.(Duh)-3/8

Exit Stage Left- El Camino Real Derby-GG-2/15

Candy Boy- Robt. B. Lewis S.-SA-2/8

Havana Swale S.-GP-3/1

Honor Code-Gotham S.-AQUI.-3/1

Indianapolis-San Vincente S.-SA-2/16

MR. Speaker-Palm Beach S.-GP-3/1

Tanzanite Cat-Southwest S.-OP-2/17

Bond Holder-Risen Star S.-FG-2/22

Louies Flower-Southwest S.-OP-2/17

Tapiture-Southwest S.-OP-2/17

Top Billing-Fountain of Youth S.-GP-2/22

Vicar's in Trouble-Risen Star S.-FG-2/22

Wildcat Red-Fountain of Youth S.-GP-2/22

Albano-Risen Star S.-FG-2/22

Baratti-Gotham S.-AQUI.-3/1

General A Rod-Fountain of Youth S.-GP-2/22

Gold Hawk-Risen Star S.-FG-2/22

Midnight Hawk-Robt. B. Lewis S.-SA-2/8

No Nay Never-Swale S.-GP-3/1

Noble Moon-Gotham S.-AQUI.-3/1

Ride On Curlin-Southwest S.-2/17

Rise Up-Risen Star-FG-2/22

Uncle Sigh-Gotham S.-AQUI.-3/1

JayJay In Contest? yes.

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Tue, 04 Feb 2014 00:43:11 GMT

Ranagulzion, I know that the dosage index is not in Cairo Prince's favor. I am just trying to help Dr. D find something in his pedigree that would suggest that he can get the 10 furlongs. Lets not focus on his sire, Pioneerof The Nile or his broodmare sire, Holy Bull. If CP has the stamina to run all day long; he inherited such ability through his dam's female line.

I know that his dosage index is 7.00. No horse has won the derby with such a high index, but no one thought that a Bold Ruler colt, Secretariat could get the distance. Secretariat's dosage index was 3.00, which is borderline for distance.

I still really like Top Billing and Vicar's In Trouble.

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Drinks from a glass !! — Mon, 03 Feb 2014 19:53:14 GMT

great way to spend a snowy day her in nj .

anxious to see honor code soon . my # 1

there is an allowance race #8 Thursday at oaklawn I will watch ..bitters n bourbon ran a beautiful race the day of the lecomte..ran as a 2yr old at huge odds and finished second that day....his maiden was impressive channing hill up for r moqett. old fashioned by an honour and glory mare....

next five.. vicars in trouble top billing strong mandate mexikom conquest titan

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Brontexx — Mon, 03 Feb 2014 18:20:16 GMT

As far as McLaughlin is concerned Baratti has a following on the blog here is his immediate breeding

( Medaglia d'Oro - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)there is another that I am following that ran his first race on January 1st at Gulfstream he came in 2nd coming from off the pace since then he has had one bullet workout at PM in Florida where a lot of the trainers have stables to run at Gulfstream.Here is his immediate family Medaglia d'Oro - Kotuku (GB), by A.P. Indy)when he runs again I will post it on the blog.

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 03 Feb 2014 17:40:46 GMT

Early Triple Crown nominations were dominated by the progenies of Tapit and Bernardini with each stallion represented by 16. Distorted Humor and Giants Cause Way were next with 10 each.

On the trainers’ side Todd Pletcher has 42 and BB has 18. Wayne Lukas seems to be back in the game with 12. Steve Asmussen has 12 as well. Surprisingly, Bill Mott has 10 along with Chad Brown and Kenneth McPeek. European base trainers Aidan O’ Brien and Dermot Weld have 4 & 5 respectively.

Is there strength in number? No for the Derby! The dangerous Christophe Clement has 1 and I like this colt a lot. First year Team Valor trainer Richard Mettee has 1.

Will Mr. Pletcher be represented by his usual 5 or will this number? Will Speedy Bob have at lest one starter this year? Will one of the progenies of either Tapit or Bernardini breakthrough for either stallion? Two trainers and two stallions dominate the nominations and the spells doom.

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Drinks from a glass !! — Mon, 03 Feb 2014 17:29:52 GMT

first venture into the derby dozen..............

steve, really like reading the multi dimensional views of all..

jayjay, mary, pedigree ann,coldfacts everyone so interesting and at times overwhelming with historical perspective...i am still learning the game every week........

horses are learning the game daily ... the now horse who will win the derby ? a horse not mentioned yet from oaklawn ? same day of vicar's win ? an old fashioned colt ...great

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 03 Feb 2014 16:05:08 GMT

Ranagulzion,

“By the way, I'm yet to be impressed with the quality By the way, I'm yet to be impressed with the quality of this 3YO crop."

My learned colleague the 3YO crop to which you refer does not include many of the top 2YOs who are yet to make their 3YO debuts. There were 24 betting interest in the 1st KDFP. Of the 23 that are still on the Derby Trail, eight have made 3YO debuts i.e., Almost Famous, Cairo Prince, Commissioner, Coup de Grace, Financial Mogul, Noble Moon, Pablo Del Monte and Tamarando.

Of the eight, 4 have won and another 2 have finished in the board. Who are the new shooters worthy of notice? Baratti, Tonalist, Top Billing, Indianapolis, Vicar's In Trouble, Kristo, Matador, Midnight Hawk etc., are very nice horses.

“Two and only two colts have given me the impression that they could break the Triple Crown drought”

The last three Triple Crown winners were brilliant 2YOs so you should really be looking at the brilliant 2YOs from the 2011 crop. Neither Honor Code nor Top Billing could be considered brilliant 2YOs. That distinction would have to go to New Year Day, Havana and Shared Belief. Favorite Trick like secretariat was voted HOY as at 2YO. He was a live TC candidate and never won a single TC race.

The horse that has gone the closest to being a TC winner since Affirmed was Real Quiet and he broke his maiden in his 7th start as a 2YO. I am sure he would not have impressed you.

The 1st TC winner Sir Barton did not win any of his 6 start as a 2YO. His 1st victory came in his 7th start in what was his 3YO debut that just happened to be in the Kentucky Derby as rabbit for his highly regarded stable mate Billy Kelly. The rest is history.

A Triple Crown winner could emerge from the least likely of the horses we are currently evaluating. We can evaluate pedigree, review PPs, trainers records and a host of other pertinent facts, but we are in no position to evaluate the heart a horse will show in the final quarter of three races at various distances covering 30 1/2F in five weeks.

For many Derby winners, the Triple Crown will always be a fleeting illusion to be pursued but never attained as they are just not special enough.

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 03 Feb 2014 14:37:01 GMT

Is it crazy to be optimistic that Baratti will improve rapidly and impose himself on the Derby trail similar to Bodemeister? Why compare the two?

While Bodemeister was from the dominant Mr. Prospector sire line, Baratti is from the sire line that ranks second in Derby success in the last 20 years. However, the dam line of the two colts as it relates to the first three dam sires is identical.

Bodemeister – Storm Cat, A P Indy & Roberto

Baratti - Storm Cat, Avenue Of Flags & Roberto

Both A P Indy and Avenue Of Flags were sired by Seattle Slew. The 4th dams of the two horses are Nijinsky and Prince John. While Prince John does not rank with Nijinsky on the track, he outclasses the 1970 British Triple Crown winner in the broodmare sire category. Prince John was leading broodmare sire: 1979, 1980, 1982, 1986 and 2nd twice.

While Bodemeister was 2nd on debut, Baratti was 5th. However, both colts returned to score smashing maiden victories. Bodemeister next start was the G2 San Felipe where he finished 2nd and the rest is history. The connections of Baratti are considering the G3 Gotham for his next start.

NB: Bodemeister did not make a start as a 2YO and though gallant in the Derby, failed to join Apallo as the only winners not to have made a 2YO start. Baratti made one start as a 2YO and consequently does not have the Apallo hurdle to cross.

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Mon, 03 Feb 2014 14:36:10 GMT

Mary: You may be like the drowning man clutching at straws, searching for Classic distance stamina in Cairo Prince's pedigree. Chances are he'll be an exceptional colt up to nine furlongs but beyond that it will be a matter of whether he's gotten that 'something special' from his broodmare sire Holy Bull or his grand sire Empire Maker. His Beyer figures doesn't suggest the latter case so far but we'll have to wait and see. Another thing in his favour would be if this is a sub-standard crop of 3YOs that he could use superior class to dominate. His trainer thinks that he doesn't need to improve but he might be very mistaken, in terms of CP's speed figures.

My dozen at the moment is comprised of: Honor Code, Top Billing, Strong Mandate, Bobby's Kitten, Shared Belief, Cairo Prince, Conquest Titan, Vicar's In Trouble, Tonalist, California Chrome, Constitution and Cleburne.

I'm still keeping an eye on Wicked Strong, Almost Famous or Awesome Sky ...these three are going to make quantum leaps in their next outings IMO.

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Mon, 03 Feb 2014 09:05:59 GMT

Coldfacts : I did look at him but watching his races, I think he's very inconsistent. He doesn't seem to have focus, is it the horse? the jockey? or the trainer ? I'm not sure but I'd like to see him actually race, not just run in a race. He's going to the Risen Star to start off his campaign, I'll be watching him.

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 03 Feb 2014 02:42:27 GMT

Dr D and all, the 5x female line may be Cairo Prince's saving grace. Lady Angela is a descendant of Canterbury Pilgrim. CP's sire female line and dam female line is replete with stamina; Pocahontas, carrier of the large heart gene. I hope he wins the Florida Derby.

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 03 Feb 2014 02:39:57 GMT

JayJay,

“There are so many things that can affect the final race time that doesn't show in the form.”

I agree with the above. The track must have been very tiring as the two top colts appeared to be laboring in the last 100 meters. I expected a time of either 1:44 or less. Conditions must have been for more favorable when Baratti recorded his 1:42.97 for the distance while full of run.

I am more impressed with Baratti than Cairo Prince. That stated, I have limited confidence in his trainer’s ability to get him to be competitive when it matters. I realize he might be behind CP at this time but he is the better Derby prospect. When Storm Cat, a son of Seattle Slew and Roberto are sires of the 1st,2nd & 3rd dams, the possibilities are endless.

My dozen will be significant different the 2nd time around as I have spent more time evaluating Derby prospects. After the performance of Declaration of War in the BCC, I am even monitoring some of Mr. Obrien possibles.

As usual Darley has a trailer load of horse that none of their three trainers seem capable of developing into Derby horses. I cannot understand why the operation does not try a different set of trainers. They had more Derby starters when they prepared the horses in Dubai.

If my memory is correct my dozen is the only one that contains Bond Holder the 4th place finisher in the BCJ. Mr. Haskin has him knocking on the door but I believe he earned his way in to every dozen. The colt has contested three G1 races with one victory and two 4th place finishes. Do you care to share why you did not consider him with his pedigree and résumé? Not many on the Derby trail have a HOY as sire and dam sire. Remember Mineshaft gave us Nehro who finished 2nd in the Derby with only a MSW victory to his credit.

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 03 Feb 2014 01:56:49 GMT

Dr. D, since I really like Cairo Prince, I'm going to go back further in his female line to see if I can find a stayer or two. I really like Top Billing and Ragtime. Ragtime just won his maiden so we shall see.

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Sun, 02 Feb 2014 23:50:31 GMT

derbygal : Yeah, I posted that I was on 32nd after having all 3 winners, then for some reason, I moved to 33rd. Now that they fixed it, I'm at 30 lol. It's okay though, I didn't want to waste another pick by having both Samraat and Uncle Sigh. I used Uncle Sigh's spot to add Commissioner for the FOY. Are you in the contest ?

Coldfacts : I respect everyone's way of handicapping the races. I was just curious why you use your handicapping angles to break down (or give historic perspectives) other people's picks but it doesn't seem to apply to you. If you were not into Havana, you probably would be posting those things to me except without the "hope" that he can buck the history trend.

As for the "Rocky II", I quoted that from Uncle Sigh's trainer. The trainer would like another go at Samraat. It makes sense as both are NY breds and would most likely race each other again either in the Gotham or the Wood Memorial but to answer your question, no, I did not presumed that they will both be in the race and no, I didn't mean they will be the top two again in the Wood but I do want to see both hook up again and see how it turns out. Samraat's trainer mentioned the Wood or the Lousiana Derby as their options. I've never been a race time handicapper, I don't really understand why people look into that. Horses will go as fast as they need to go. Comparing a horses last race final time to their next race doesn't make sense to me. There are so many things that can affect the final race time that doesn't show in the form.

I already have Baratti in my Winstar Derby contest, he's my horse for the Gotham and I'm hoping he can ration his speed. I didn't know about him until I joined the Winstar contest and picked him based on his last race, that was on the inner track though so I'm not sure how he'll do on the main track.

Dr. D : Yeah, you're right. I feel good about my top three although Poker Player seems to be taking long coming back. Rise Up had a "breather" and back on tab. He'll be going to the Risen Star stakes. I have a couple in my list that hasn't even run yet that I'm excited about, In Trouble, he had a small setback last year (knee chip) but he's back on the track and has had two workouts. Meadowood is the other one I'm waiting for.

I'm waiting to see where BB will take Indianapolis, I'm pretty sure he's going to the SA Derby. I read somewhere that Midnight Hawk might the one doing the travelling. There's something different this year, as there has not been a super hyped horse yet except Cairo Prince and I thought he was legit, until the news about skipping FOY. I don't like the long gap between the Holy Bull and FD. There are still soooooooo many horses that hasn't run this year that I think will be there in the end. I don't think we've seen the Derby Winner run yet.

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Sun, 02 Feb 2014 23:50:13 GMT

KY Vet: You're gung-ho over Holy Bull winner Cairo Prince but you're forgetting something ...he's yet to post a 100 Beyer Speed figure. Does this observation sound familiar to you? or have you changed your tune? Back in 2011/12 your post would've read something like this "you people are going crazy over a horse that's never run a 100 Beyer in four starts ...are you all nuts?" (LOL)

Steve: perhaps you should cut the "Vet" some slack ...consider some of his remarks "Distorted Humor".

By the way, I'm yet to be impressed with the quality of this 3YO crop. Two and only two colts have given me the impression that they could break the Triple Crown drought: Honor Code and Top Billing, especially the latter, that's bred to stay forever. If Top Billing wins the FOY his stocks will soar to stratospheric heights. I'm looking for not just the Derby winner but that very special one to join the class of icons, Secretariat, Seatle Slew and Affirmed.

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cathy in Washington — Sun, 02 Feb 2014 23:16:41 GMT

Predict ~ What really impressed me about Texas Ryano's win was that he was totally hand ridden, the jock never used the whip on him when he came out off the heels of the horse in front of him and he was flying with his ears pricked.

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

predict — Sun, 02 Feb 2014 22:16:08 GMT

Nice win by Samraat, nothing wrong with the time of the race, he is a very good horse; Uncle Sigh was impressive in defeat, as he was a race less seasoned and had the poorer post for this race. Would lover to see these two try better next, think they can handle it, and would put alot of those that are being billed Derby hopefuls to shame. Not sure either wants a mile and a quarter though.

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

predict — Sun, 02 Feb 2014 22:00:59 GMT

cathy in washington, thanks for mentioning Texas Ryano, that was a very impressive first race, this is a horse I hope will try dirt and aim for the Derby. He is very unseasoned, getting such a late start, but he can really run. Love that he is by Curlin, and even though his dam sire was a very, very good sprinter, his dam, Blending Element(great name for a dam) was most effective at two turns and could run and win at over a mile and an eighth. He might be that something special. He's got me excited.

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Steve Haskin — Sun, 02 Feb 2014 20:45:21 GMT

KY VET, one more post like that and it will be your last on here. If you are unable to be civil and are compelled to resort to name calling, especially regarding everyone as a whole, please take your comments somewhere else. People are trying to have fun and engage in friendly debate on here.

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Linda in Texas — Sun, 02 Feb 2014 16:36:25 GMT

Okay, i am taking note of the posters here and so far great to also see Deacon, MZ, El Kabong, (name makes me smile)Carlos in Cali, -Keelerman, Karen in Indiana present and accounted for so where is Karen in Texas and Angela in Abilene? For a great turn of foot, watch Vinceremos win the Sam Davis at Tampa Bay, and his stablemate Harpoon's turn of foot trying to overtake him so he could beat him back to the barn for a bucket of oats, Race 9. Missing so far is Lazmannick (2 n's or 1 i forget) and i hope Paula got home after the sneet (combo of snow and sleet)in Georgia). But of all the missing so far, my favorite and most respected blogger friend, Slew. Please let us know you are okay and Needler in Virginia also. I know i have missed several but time will hopefully be good to the rest of us and soon they will report in. I am not a breeder as KY referred some as, nor an owner now, but I Simply Love This Sport, from the people who make it happen from the owner to the most important people of all and to me they are the dear backsiders who care for the horses and the barns. And of course the horses. Hope your team wins today at The 'Souper' Bowl, i don't have a horse (team) in this race) so i am going to pretend the Seahawks are in disguise as the Cowboys and pop a cork anyway and fix fajitas. Oh and speaking of corks i almost forgot Ted in La and Bob from Boston. Thanks Steve, it is another dreary day and 30 degrees. Linda

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 02 Feb 2014 13:02:28 GMT

jajay

My list is just one that I really love anyway and that is Indianapolis. Take your time, just let it come about naturally. You don't have to force anything. Your good instincts will come into play at some point. Don't interfere with your instincts by trying to force rationale or any of that mumbo jumbo voodoo science hill of beans.

re: Derby Dozen - January 28, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 02 Feb 2014 12:54:47 GMT

BillyRF

Thanks for that info. It's good to know how the doasge number is arrived at and how it could change. I do use the dosage number as part of my evaluation. I am also a little leary of the higher numbers as others are and do further evaluation of their pedigree because of it. I rely more on the sire and damsire AWD (average winning distance) of their offspring than I do dosage. The range of dosage for Derby winners is greater than the range of AWD it seems, and AWD seems like a stronger gauge to me. I do think that with Pioneer or any young sire you have to give more of a benefit of the doubt concerning dosage and AWD and look more at the performances of the sire, grandsire and down the line. Thanks for your response and enlightenment. It's good to have you here.

Mary

That's true. I also feel the tail side is a bit of a negative but I'm not tossing him because of it. He's a wait and see for me. At least he's not just a sprinter like some are that get into the Derby. At this point it would not shock me if Cairo won the Derby. The Florida Derby should tell us a lot eventhough that isn't enough prep work for him in my opinion. Maybe he's a super horse.

jayjay

It's too early to worry about it. I may not even do a another list until after the next group of bigger races like the FOY. Too much will change and my list is iffy anyway. I just wanted a starting point and to start loving a few horses for the sake of the Derby Dozen and Derby holiday spirit. Let the festivities begin !!!!!