Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Tue, 11 Feb 2014 18:04:01 GMT

Pedigree Ann,

Points acknowledge.

Below are the horses that have won TC races whose dam sires are tail male descendants of Turn-To:

I'll Have Another - Derby/Preakness

Grindstone -Derby

Afleet Alex -Preakness/Belmont

Giacomo - Derby

Charismatic - Derby/Preakness

Pine Bluff - Preakness

Danzig Connection - Belmont

Others:

Zenyatta - BCC/HOY

Uncle Mo - Champion 2YO

Spring At Last -Don Handicap

Stately Victor - Bluegrass

On the Derby Trail

Vinceremos - (3 starts 2-1-0)

General A Rod - (3 starts 2-1-0)

Bourbonize - (2 starts 2-0-0)

The above colts have shown above average ability. They have ran very fast. One has won at a mile in 1:35 plus and two have won at a 1 1/16m.

One has to be optimistic that another winner of a TC race can emerge for a mare sired by a tail male descendant of Turn-To.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Pedigree Ann — Tue, 11 Feb 2014 15:15:47 GMT

"The dam sires of Derby winners I'll Have Another and Afleet Alex were Arch and Hawkster who are both great grandsons of Hail To Reason. More Than Ready is a great grandson of Hail To Reason."

So because they have one ancestor out of eight in the great-grandparent position in the pedigree in common, More Than Ready, Arch, and Hawkster are the same horse when it comes to sire influence. The fact that Hawkster had a G1 win at 12f, a distance at which his sire placed in 2 classics (THE and the Irish Derby); that Arch won a G1 at 10f, while his sire had other staying offspring; and that More Than Ready and his sire Southern Halo have gotten almost exclusively hot 2yos, sprinters and milers - all this makes no difference to you.

Hail to Reason was IN GENERAL a stamina influence, but that doesn't mean that EVERY descendant of Hail to Reason inherited that stamina influence. Three Bars was a great-grandson in the male line of Suburban Hcp winner Ballot, a great champion of the early 20th Century. In the next generation back were of his pedigree two winners of the Belmont and other classic-distance stayers Ben Brush, Trenton, Disguise, etc. Didn't stop Three Bars from becoming the foundation sire of running Quarter Horses.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Tue, 11 Feb 2014 02:09:35 GMT

Robin and Coldfacts man, I'll respond on Steve's February 10th derby picks. I have much to say.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 10 Feb 2014 18:53:59 GMT

Mary,

“Secretariat sired the great Lady's Secret, the 1986 HOY. Out of 45 starts she finished in the money 37 times, winning over $3m. Name one mare by either Mr. Prospector or the entire Native Dancer line that accomplished that feat.”

I will give you two that are comparable"

Street Cry sired Zenyatta the 2010 Horse of Year. Out of 20 starts she finished in the money 20 times, winning over $7.3 million.

Genuine Risk is the only female that finished in the top two in all three Triple Crown races. Out of 15 starts she finished in the money 15 times.

“Next on my list is Weekend Surprise, dam of the great AP Indy, another Secretariat daughter.”

Weekend Surprise was also dam of Preakness winner Summer Squall. Dose Natalma rank with Weekend Surprise? You can decide. She was the dam of Northern Dancer and she was sired by Native Dancer.

While a Mr. Prospector mare has never produced the winner of TC race, one produced HOY Mineshaft. The runner up in the 2013 Derby Golden Soul was produced from a Mr. Prospector mare.

Mares sired by descendants of Native Dancer chiefly through Mr. Prospector have produced 2 winners of TC races. How many of secretariat's tail male descendants have been associate with winner of TC races? My records reflect none.

secretariat like Snow Chief and many other did not live up to their high expectations.

“You have a tendency to focus on the top side of a horse's pedigree. On the bottom side you focus on the broodmare sire's sire line.”

You are correct. The records indicate that’s where the focus should be.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Mon, 10 Feb 2014 08:04:44 GMT

Anyone know why they took the points off of the Sam F. Davis race yet kept it for the Lexington Stakes ? I just think if a horse needs to run on April 19th to get the points, they're probably not a contender. I would guess they're running to chase an owner's dream to have a starter in the Derby. I thought the Sam F. Davis is on par with the Lecomte race, really not much difference as far as the quality of the fields.

My new list :

Rise Up

Poker Player

In Trouble

Top Billing

Havana

Gold Hawk

Commissioner

Samraat

Vinceremos

Honor Code

Cairo Prince

Chitu

I'm wondering whether Cairo Prince is actually hurt. As for Honor Code, he's had one workout this year, I'm not sure which race they'll end up in.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

robinm — Mon, 10 Feb 2014 04:15:36 GMT

Unlike some here, when analyzing pedigree, I look at the entire pedigree. I don't believe only the female lines of a horse's pedigree influence stamina. Stamina lines in a pedigree help a horse get a distance of ground no matter where they come from. That said, personally, I look for speed over stamina as often as possible in a pedigree and I tend to give less preference to a sire that doesn't have stamina in the bottom half of his pedigree.

However, I strongly believe that talent can come from anywhere, and I always look first at a horse's accomplishments on the track, running style, and in particular how a horse "finishes up" his races. If a horse is finishing up well in top races against top competition, then, and only then, will I go to the pedigree.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Sam Santschi — Sun, 09 Feb 2014 19:48:44 GMT

Sure feel dumb today...Didn't realize they closed the KDFW on Saturday instead of Sunday like they always have, right? 30-1 on Candy Boy sure looks good now. Then again, never have won one of those future bets anyway. (American Lion one of my shrewder future picks.) Yes, it's a sucker bet but kind of cool to walk around Derby week with a live ticket from 12 weeks earlier..

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 09 Feb 2014 13:58:38 GMT

Steve

You sure nailed it on your Candy Boy assessment, prognosis, evaluation and prediction. To be expected I suppose from those who have been paying attention in class. Looking forward to seeing where you place him on your next list. It's looking like there is a little talent and competition out West. Just hoping they have enough water left at the troughs and watering holes. I would imagine the horses get a little thirsty after those monster moves and tough races.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

cuba"s classic chef de race — Sun, 09 Feb 2014 04:38:28 GMT

Storm Cat is now the #1 broodmare sire in the world but when you look at his record as a dam sire of 3 year's old classic winners on dirt at 3 his record is very suspect, well when the experts see the horse who did finish 2d in the derby two year's back they may feel that Honor Code,Shared Belief etc have a similar pedigree mixture and they don't, the problem with Storm Cat as a broodmare sire of distance runners is with his second dam by Crimson Satan when you see his sire Storm Bird you can notice a strong stamina influence and i did notice that the horse that finished 2d at the derby 2 yer's back had A.P.Indy at his second dam sire will be Storm Cat problem as a broodmare sire of classic winners lay at the second dam?,just a humble comment to try to be lucky.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

KY VET — Sun, 09 Feb 2014 00:32:58 GMT

pool 2 closes......my 2 horses are the favorites .....things going well......cp from 26 to 13....hc from 10 to 12.........................................................free advice from a pro......bet against will take charge!!!!!

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Sun, 09 Feb 2014 00:22:39 GMT

WOW, the Candy Boy did it. He was just getting started at the finish. Like I said earlier, the longer the distance the better for this guy.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Sun, 09 Feb 2014 00:05:26 GMT

Midnight Hawk's pedigree is interesting. Pursuant to the tail side of his pedigree, the Princequillo line breeding explodes past the 5x. I do think that Candy Boy will give him a run for his money.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Sat, 08 Feb 2014 20:22:19 GMT

I love Candy Boy. As the distance gets longer, he'll just get better. I'm happy he is up there on your picks Steve. The tail side of his pedigree is replete with stamina. Somethingfabulous is a half brother of Secretariat.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Sat, 08 Feb 2014 19:44:55 GMT

I'm surprised to see Diamond Bachelor having the same ML as Cool Samurai but I'll take it. I thought Cool Samurai would be a little bit higher.

It'll be nice to see Blueskies take on GoD's speed, but I think American Blend might make this trifecta decent.

I'll take Temeraine in the San Marcos, with Lucayan, Jeranimo and Vagabond Shoes

I like Falling Sky in the GP Sprint as my longshot, it's a speed race and I think the speed holds in this race. Will play him with Catron, Jackson Bend and Singanothersong.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Sat, 08 Feb 2014 18:16:31 GMT

Come on Coldfacts, Secretariat sired the great Lady's Secret, the 1986 Horse of Year. Out of 45 starts she finished in the money 37 times, winning over $3 million. Name one mare by Mr. Prospector or for that matter the entire Native Dancer line that accomplished that feat. Next on my list is Weekend Surprise, dam of the great AP Indy, another Secretariat daughter. I really wish that you would broaden your horizons and look at female lines. You have a tendency to focus on the top side of a horse's pedigree. On the bottom side you focus on the broodmare sire's sire line.

Princequillo, Secretariat's broodmare sire, was one of the greatest long distance runners of all time. Secretariat inherited his large heart from the Princequillo mare Somethingroyal. All of Princequillo's daughters were carriers of the large heart gene.

Secretariat was able to sprint 1 1/2 miles in the Belmont Stakes, thanks to Princequillo's stamina and Bold Ruler's speed.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sat, 08 Feb 2014 15:03:31 GMT

Mr. Haskin,

I have nothing but regard for your assessment of the horses comprising your Dozen. That stated, I cannot seem to endorse your assessment of Candy Boy.

“We know he has a monster middle move”

The above was only on display once and he flattened out and had to be fully extended to hold second. In addition, he displayed that move on synthetic while recording a 6F split of 1:11.38. The 6F split in the Sham was 1:10 and a bit. He is unlikely to make such a move against high cruiser on the SA surface.

“so watch for Stevens to wait until pulling the trigger”

He was one pace in the stretch against Tap It Rich in his sole dirt effort. In his first 3 starts he was one pace in the stretch. His sole victory was achieved on the lead. Mr. Stevens will now rate him behind the leading pack and unleash his big move. Let assume this occurs, can he hold off Cool Samurai who has closed relentlessly in two starts at a mile, giving the impression that longer is better.

Candy Boy has no definite running style. He is either one pace, one the lead or making a premature move. It’s hard to envisage him adopting a new strategy for the Lewis. He is likely to be caught between running styles. This an erratic colt.

A lot of folks are high on him and I cannot see why. Again they could be right and I could be so wrong.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sat, 08 Feb 2014 14:27:40 GMT

Mary,

"Secretariat was not a disappointment at stud; he was a great broodmare sire.'

The cold facts do not support your claim. I am prepare to rephrase my statement to read he did not live up to expectation as a stallion but had reasonable success a broodmare sire.

NB: Many great thoroughbreds did not lived up to expectations as stallions.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sat, 08 Feb 2014 14:16:09 GMT

Diamond Bachelor made his dirt debut without Lasix on an exceptionally fast track and was wide on both turns. He could not get into the race from post #12 and looked lost. He ran on mildly in the stretch and although appearing to be one paced was only beaten 91/2L.

His connections seem adamant to try him on dirt again. I believe he is a turf horse but one never knows. He did finished ahead of Conquest Titan who returned with two of his best effort on dirt.

He was acquired for $570K. His trainer has a very poor win % and all parties concern but be very disparate to determine the dirt status of this colt. He has trained well and could be dangerous off three month between races.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sat, 08 Feb 2014 14:05:00 GMT

Cousin Stephens finished less than 3L behind Top Billing and Commissioner over 9F. Top Billing is ranked #1 and Commissioner #12 in Mr. Haskin’s dozen. Are They Derby horses?

Cousin Stephens returned in the Sam Davis with a perfect trip and finished 4th beaten by Vinceremos who had issues in the stretch and rallied for avictory. A careful review of the SD will reflect that Vinceremos was mostly under a hand ride whereas Cousin Stephens and all others were subjected to aggressive whipping.

There is no such thing as a Derby horse. Under the current points, the question has to be can he accumulate the requisite points to secure a spot.

Was Golden Soul a Derby horse? If my memory is correct, the MSW winner entered due to defections with very few points and finished a gallant second.

The contributors supporting Vinceremos are by no means baseless.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Rinzler — Sat, 08 Feb 2014 01:46:52 GMT

Because they way the qualifiers are done for the Derby, it pretty much eliminated any chance of pure sprinters entering the Derby and now can concentrate on those better bred for distance. Of course there are milers who have the possibility of stretching out given certain circumstances.

So far, I am looking at one whose breeding intrigues me. That is Midnight Hawk.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Sat, 08 Feb 2014 01:41:47 GMT

Diamond Batchelor has a great shot to win the Robert Lewis ...he's my pick to humble the favourites Candy Boy and Midnight Hawk.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Sat, 08 Feb 2014 00:49:11 GMT

Bill Rinker, thank you for your comments relative to the x-factor.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

KY VET — Fri, 07 Feb 2014 20:20:34 GMT

Why all the talk about a horse that is not a derby contender? the sam davis 82 beyer? come on man!

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bill Rinker — Fri, 07 Feb 2014 18:13:36 GMT

Distance capabilities in Thoroughbred Horses are influenced by a mulitude of factors. One of these that we seem to have identified is associated with the x, or sex linked chromosome, which is also associated with heart size. However, there are other factors that influence stamina as well. Vinceremos may very well have inherited this x-factor trait through his Dam, Kettles Sister, via- Playmate, Becky Be Good and or Bases Full. The thing to keep in mind though, is that a Horse's ability to cover a route of ground is usually not the result of one such characteristic, but rather the sum of many factors that more than likely have been developed by those in charge of their well being. With the size of todays Derby field it is highly desirable to have a healthy combination of both speed and stamina. I think it is safe to say, that in terms of natural abilities that horses are born with, is that speed can be managed some what easier than endurance. However, that to is subjective, and it's just not that easy to hang your hat on one nail and achieve lasting success.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Fri, 07 Feb 2014 17:41:50 GMT

Steve : I like your One For The Roses series, specially the 2nd and most recent one with Strong Mandate. Also re-listened to Midnight Hawks and anxious to see him run in the Lewis, this is by far the best field he has faced in my opinion so it should be a good test for him. Looking forward to listening to more of those. Who's next on your list ?