Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Tue, 18 Feb 2014 20:15:19 GMT

Predict,

Thanks for the info on Cleburne and Smart Cover. Given Tapitures win in the Southwest, these two could prove to be late threats if training resumes soon. I shot an email off to Conor Foley over at Donegal, hopefully I'll hear back soon on any potential Derby activity for either.

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bill Rinker — Tue, 18 Feb 2014 05:22:10 GMT

Pedigree Ann, I found myself interested in the plight of Reverence and how it relates to the influence of stamina inheritance when assessing pedigree. As you noted, Vaguely Nobel, Northern Dancer, and Nashua are all present in his pedigree, but seemly show little effect in regard to stamina induced routing ability. Two of the three Sires have the highest likely hood of receiving an X-factor contribution through their Dams, Noble Lassie, and Natalma. But in Segula's case, the inheritance is a little farther removed. Here we find the contribution made through her Sire Johnstown's second Dam Flambette, and her mate Sir Gallahad. Moving forward in Reverence's ancestry we find his Sire, Mark of Esteem by Darshaan, and his Dam, Imperial Bailiwick by Imperial Frontier. Mark of Esteem did his best running at a mile and possesed an impressive closing turn of foot, whlie his Sire Darshaan was a classic winner at 1-1/2 mile. Conversely, Bailiwick was cut from a different cloth, and possessed the speed of a sprinting champion while winning the Flying Childers at five furlongs. In addition to Reverence, she produced another sprinter in Helm Banks, who won the Chesham stakes at seven furlongs. Bailiwick's Sire Imperial Frontier, was best at slightly under a mile. However, all of this pedigree influence very well may have had little to do with Reverence performing as a sprinter. As it turns out Reverence was never initially campaigned at longer distances do to his pedigree while eventually finding his best as a sprinter at five. Unfortunately, Reverence fractured his pelvis at two and was unable to race, and a reocurrence prevented any improvement at three. Reverance was a maiden at four and won his first race second time out at five furlongs. He continued to improve at four winning at the Handicap level. At five he advanced to the Listed Class by March, ran his first Group Race in May, and would go on to race very successfully until his eleventh year. Reverence was quite remarkable, and on the track his legacy was that of a champion sprinter. However it would be hard to deny the size of his heart when considering his longevity and the adversity he over came.

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Racingfan — Tue, 18 Feb 2014 03:01:00 GMT

Coldfacts - I also was impressed with the first out win by Victory Nor Defeat. I am watching him because he is owned by Sagamore Farm - the home of the incredible Native Dancer! I am watching all of their horses as I am thrilled they are once again breeding and racing horses and I wish them much success! There will never be another Native Dancer, but I am hoping one (or more) of his descendants will bring them back to prominence! Steve, an article about them and how they are back in the business would be wonderful! Hint Hint LOL

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

predict — Tue, 18 Feb 2014 02:58:38 GMT

El Kabong,

Cleburne had bucked shins in October and is now galloping at Gulfstream.

Smart Cover,

Has not worked but has been galloping, also at Gulfstream.

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

predict — Tue, 18 Feb 2014 02:46:07 GMT

Coldfacts,

What do you think about the larger bookings for Into Mischief in 2013, I think you said 210, as it's probablity of producing about half of the upcoming crop to be fillies; and would this not be good for the future of horse breeding or not. What I'm wondering is as dam sire would his proclivity to produce outstanding individuals in future breedings also be diminished because of the large numbers he covered. If this does diminish the quality, then it would be a rather difficult statistic to follow dams from this dam sire.

Mr.Haskin,

Love the idea suggested by Ranagulzion of having a potential Triple Crown winner as only you could see it

with your incredible knowledge and experience. """"""

Let's get ready to rumble""""

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Sail On — Tue, 18 Feb 2014 01:55:38 GMT

Looks like Tapiture is the winner of the crowded field in the Southwest Stakes. Not sure what we can learn from this race. He didn't seem to run easily, but the others failed to show up.

@robinm, yes, the fillies can race with the boys for Derby points. My point was they should be able to earn points in the premier filly races, otherwise there will be no fillies in the Derby, or the great filly races will be hurt.

Q? does dosing affect racing, if so, how>

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Tue, 18 Feb 2014 00:48:31 GMT

Cold Facts and others, sires are glamorous individuals, but on numbers alone it's very likely that the best genetic influences in history have been female, not male, particularly since broodmares contribute as much or more to the genetic inheritance of the foal.

It is common practice to plan a pedigree with several great stallions, it is less common to plan a mating loaded with great broodmares, even though such mares may have been the best genetic influences in history.

In the early 20th century four foundation broodmare left their mark on the breed: Mumtaz Mahal, Selene, La Troienne, and Plucky Liege. As far as the placement of these broodmares in a pedigree, a few spots may be more advantageous than others. Mitochondrial DNA is only transmitted by mares, never by stallions, so such desirable DNA can only come from the bottom of a pedigree.

The X chromosome "heartline" has been shown to influence the size and function of the heart. The heartline traces on a zig-zag pattern to the dam, then to the dam's sire, then to his dam, and her sire, etc. So great broodmare sires like Sir Gallahad III, War Admiral, Buckpasser, and Secretariat might have benefitted from the X chromosome that they transmitted to their daughters, but never their sons.

A.P. Indy, Storm Cat, Gone West, Dehere, and Chief's Crown all have Secretariat as their broomare sire, and so they enjoyed Secretariat's outstanding dam, Somethingroyal, as well.

I think that we need to see this group of stallions combined in pedigrees that load up on the blood of Somethingroyal, particularly when the blood of her other fine son, Sir Gaylord is added to the equation. Somethingfabulous is another stakes placed horse out of Somethingroyal. You can find Somethingfabulous on the tail sire female line and the dam's female line of Candy Boy.

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Tue, 18 Feb 2014 00:15:37 GMT

Ranagulzion, on this day I would have to go with Top Billing, Vicar's In Trouble, California Chrome, and Candy Boy. I'm basing this on pedigree alone.

They all have outstanding female lines, replete with stamina. So in the Triple Crown races, particularly the Belmont, these are the horses to watch.

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

mz — Mon, 17 Feb 2014 17:50:29 GMT

Thanks, Keelerman (re: No Nay Never). I figured that considering how well he did last year, they would keep him short. I am glad that they are sticking to an international schedule and it would be nice to see him at Longchamp on Arc weekend.

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Mon, 17 Feb 2014 17:37:14 GMT

Thanks for the list, Steve. I watched some film and the top two finishers in the Iroquois, Cleburne and Smart Cover seem to have dropped off the Radar. Both Dale Romans trained for Donegal, but I can't get a beat on what they are up to next. Any word on these two? Both looked great last fall, especially Smart Cover.

Kenyatta, very funny. Thanks for the laugh.

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Pedigree Ann — Mon, 17 Feb 2014 15:56:17 GMT

Robinm - to continue. In 2011, Reddog Hartlage had a real nifty 2yo filly here in Kentucky named On Fire Baby. His barn caught a mild case of Derby fever, however he was rational about it. She was tested against colts in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn and although she finished a decent third, it was clear she wasn't up to taking on a Derby-type field. Stayed with fillies thereafter.

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

trackjack — Mon, 17 Feb 2014 13:18:56 GMT

Southwest: Strong Mandate over Tanzanite Cat

7/1, I'm done.

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bill Rinker — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 23:16:01 GMT

TnT, I'm glad that I was able to be some what helpful. There were a few other points of interest that I had intended to add, but unfortunately I accidentally hit a shift key and was unable to finish without completely starting over. There is one source of helpful information readily at hand when attempting to predict a Sire's genentic contribution. In the Bloodhorse Stallion Register you will find the average winning distance (AWD) of the runners from the subject Sire, and his Sire and Dam. In this case War Front's sire Danzig's runners were best at 7.57 furlongs, and his dam Starry Dreamer's runner's at 7.72 furlongs, and so far War Front's a little quicker at just over 7 furlongs. Undoubtably War Front has a very good 5 cross pedigree page. All of the Sires fitting into the top tier to elite class, and we all know that it takes a good Mare to make a good Sire. This has drawn many top class mares to his court and thus greatly enhanced his ability to succeed in the sale ring, and on the track. As evidenced there is a very good chance that we will continue to see a lot of diversity in his prodgeny. Making him a candidate for another long held axiom "breed the best to the best, and hope for the best". Pedigree Ann, Thank you for the formatting suggestion, I will keep this is mind for the future. While pondering the likely hood of dominant, recessive and allelic frequencies of the equine genome in regard to their influence on staying a route of ground, I agree with your thinking for the most part. The one thing that I have noticed is that while an increased ancestrial contribution may add to a mathmatical uncertainty, good blood has a tendency to stay good and in the genetic expression process will often time assume the roll of dominance. As we add more vegetables to the pot of soup many of the flavors blend, but that good tomato keeps it's good taste. Coldfacts, I'm thinking you didn't catch my drift in one of my entries above. My thoughts in questioning the possibilites of a Thoroughbred mating are not a form of lamintion of the present Breeding Industry. But rather are driven by intrigue towards potential improvement, and from my prespective the endearment of the thoroughbred has no boundries. I have never owned a Thoroughbred, but would certainly think the objective of breeding to a proven Sire would be the potential for reaching the top. I would also think that the chances of getting to such a mating would be greatly increased by a pedigree that runs deep in class, and I can't imagine anyone being disappointed by a good turn of foot while coming to hand early.

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 22:23:53 GMT

jayjay

My San Vicente pick is Rprettyboyfloyd.

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

hopalong — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 21:52:05 GMT

Wicked Strong had a 1:00:20 5 furlong work at PM today. 1 of 32. Faster than Palace Malice.

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 19:03:00 GMT

Bayern:

His sire Offlee Wild was sired by Wild Again a son of Iceapade Icecapade like Northern Dance was sired by Nearctic and out of a Native Dancer mare. His best progeny has to be BCC winner Wild Again sire of Offlee Wild. Both the tail male and female descendants of Icecapade have been disappointing to date. Could Bayern be the one to reinject energy in the Icecapade line?

His sire Offlee Wild was produced from a Seattle Slew mare. He finished a disappointing 12th in the 2003 Derby. I consider his Derby finish disappointing as his sire Wild Again won the BCC and his dam was sired won the TC. Hiss 2nd dam was sired by His Majesty. Offlee Wild might not have been a great race horse but he certainly has the pedigree to be a great stallion.

Bayern dam Alittlebitearly was unraced and this is a significant plus for the colt. Her Alydar dam was a graded stakes winner that earned $450k. When an unraced mare produces a hoses that wins by such wide margins it should not be taken lightly. Curlin was one such horse.

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Racingfan — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 18:29:34 GMT

COLDFACTS - I'm with you! Couldn't have said it better myself about Native Dancer! He is my all time favorite! He was incredible! And here it is nearly 50 years after he died that his descendants are still burning up the track, with his name appearing (and usually multiple times) in the pedigrees of the best horses running (and actually MOST horses to be exact)! I'm assuming you have read the two excellent books about him?

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 18:24:57 GMT

The 7th race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday saw a colt by the name Victory Nor Defeat win on debut. I had few dollars on him because of his dam sire Affirmed. Rarely do broodmares sired by the 1978 Triple Crown winner show up in the pedigree of horses. The last horse that was produced from an Affirmed mare that captured my interest was Sam P. He finished 3rd in the SA Derby and went on to finish a disappointing 9th in the KD.

Victory Nor Defeat covered 7F in 1:23.33 pulling away from the field. He clearly needs more ground to be seen at his best. Can this colt turn out to be as good as Pleasantly Perfect the best horse produced from an Affirmed mare? One can only hope. Is it too late for him to make the Derby field? It probably is.

We all know how good a stallion Unbridled Song was and we all know how good a race horse Affirmed was. The 2nd and 3rd dam of this colt are Northern Dancer and His Majesty. What's not to be hopeful about!

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 17:00:15 GMT

Steve: I know that your focus in this series of columns is on the Kentucky Derby but could you name at least three colts that you think has all the goods (pedigree, raw talent, good trainer etc) to capture all three legs of the Triple Crown? This could be quite a hot topic of debate, maybe for your Hanging with Haskin blog AFTER the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Consider it.

Coldfacts, Sceptre, Jersey Boy, Carlos in Cali, Age of Reason, Jay Jay, Pedigree Ann, Mary, Karen n Texas, Paula Higgins, Dr Drunkinbum, lunar spook, predict and KY Vet(LOL): What do you folks think about the above suggestion? Tell Steve "lets get ready to rumble"!!!

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 14:31:11 GMT

TNT,

War Front bred 90 mares in 2010. His progenies appear to excel on turf as oppose to dirt. That stated a lost a ton on Declaration of War in the BCC. This stallion is being properly managed as he has averaged 103 mares bred between 2011 and 2013.

Predict,

Into Mischief bred 61 mares in 2009. The resulting foal crop produced 3YOs Vyjack and Golden Cents. Two Derby starters from a book of 61 mares bred is excellent by Derby starters' standard.

In 2010 he bred 44 mares from which Vicar’s In Trouble emerged. It appears he might have another Derby starter. He bred 54 and 50 mares respectively in 2011 and 2012. Would it be surprising if other quality horses emerge from his 2012 and 2013 foal crops? No! This would be consistent with a pattern established from his small books.

His 2014 foal crop will be from 210 mares bred. In 2013 he bred in some cases 3 to 4 times the number of mares over previous years. I know it’s a business and the stallion is now established and the farm has an opportunity to cash in? Breeding Into Mischief to between 150 and 200 mares per years going forwards will be good for business in the short term by bad for the stallion in the long term.

NB: When was the last time a progeny of the king of the overbreds’ Giants Causeway emerged as a viable Derby candidate here or abroad? He breeds an average of 200 mares per year.

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

predict — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 01:35:16 GMT

Coldfacts,

Speaking purely from the male perspective, I think hardly a victim, but rather a beneficiary.

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 00:19:39 GMT

jayjay

My picks- #4 Yahilwa in the Santa Maria at SA. Dance With Fate #8 in the El Camino at GG.

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

robinm — Sat, 15 Feb 2014 23:06:49 GMT

Sail On; I don't understand why you think fillies can't get points. Fillies are not excluded from the 3-yr old races that offer qualifying points to get into the Derby. Colts can't run in points-qualifying races for the Oaks, but fillies can indeed run in points-qualifying races for the Derby.

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Breezy Goer — Sat, 15 Feb 2014 21:29:07 GMT

Shug McGaughey had the horse of a lifetime, but it wasn't Orb, it was Easy Goer. I knew Easy Goer; Easy Goer was a friend of mine; none of these horses are no Easy Goer including Top Billing and Honor Code. Right now, I like the Candy Ride horses: Candy Boy and Shared Belief.

re: Derby Dozen - February 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

TnT — Sat, 15 Feb 2014 18:37:54 GMT

Thank you very very much Bill. I will keep my eyes on these two and hopefully one of them make it to the derby. I am hoping Mosler races next weekend on the FOY undercard, and maybe O' Brien will finally decide to ship earlier if GV makes it.

Coldfacts tell me war front bred less than 150 mares in 2010, as I think your thesis merits attention, I have checked online, but cannot find the data.

I also like fire starter on Monday., exacta with Strong Mandate, who needs to lose the blinkers soon.