Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Tue, 25 Feb 2014 02:50:40 GMT

Ranagulzion : See, this is where I have a problem. You tell me to read up on Hyperion and tell me I will find all sorts of influence and that he brings stamina and class...then you give me two examples : Groupie Doll and Union Rags. I'm not questioning whether he was a great horse or not, I asked if you can name horses in the past 3 years influenced by Hyperion that did well going long...

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Tue, 25 Feb 2014 00:25:05 GMT

Come on Coldfacts, the Gulfstream track was speed biased to front runners. It was a 1 1/16 distance. Longer distances over the years have usually gone to runners coming off the pace.

There was 6 races on dirt Saturday and 5 of them were won by the front runner.

What you saw in the Fountain of Youth was 2 sprinters (there is a question of distance in both of their pedigrees) dueling it out. This would not have happened on a normal surface.

So IMO Top Billing ran out of track on a biased surface. This is really very simple.

Top Billing has the pedigree to run all day long and he showed his class on Saturday.

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 24 Feb 2014 19:59:01 GMT

I love Cairo Prince, but his pedigree suggests that longer distances will be a problem. He did get beat by Honor Code, granted by a nose, at 9 furlongs. With a 7.00 dosage index, I can't see him getting the 10 furlongs. He simply is not bred to run long.

He may be at the top of Steve's next list, but I don't think he'll be there long.

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

It aint easy being good! — Mon, 24 Feb 2014 18:51:12 GMT

Everyone needs to keep in mind that these are just prep races. No one wants their horses peaking too early. Also keep in mind that these preps are mostly at 1 1/16. The real racing in a 1 1/4 race starts at the eight pole. Watch Mexikoma race again he was exploding at the end. He is going to excel at 1 1/4th distance. Keep in mind he was running at gulfstream from post 10. Outside post dont have a chance at Gulfstream. With that being said Constitution has to crack the top 12 he looked like he was jogging out there.

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

mz — Mon, 24 Feb 2014 17:42:38 GMT

I've been having fun reading all the comments. Steve: good luck with the next Dozen! (Considering I am sending you this at 12:30 in the afternoon on Monday, I guess you are having a real fun time juggling the placings).

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Mon, 24 Feb 2014 16:33:10 GMT

Jay Jay: You posted "I'm of the opinion he's (Union Rags) a miler and I will never change my opinion on that". I appreciate your honesty and I wouldn't try to change your opinion only to expose the mettle of your argument.

This year I haven't forcasted a Triple Crown winner because I haven't been convinced about the capability of any of this crop to sweep the series. Honor Code has looked great for the Derby since his 2YO campaign but his pedigree suggests that 10 Furlongs may be his limit due to the presence of Storm Cat as his broodmare sire. Top Billing looks best of the lot but he's a smallish colt, smoewhat lacking in foundation and not having enough edge on class over his main rivals to secure my confident selection. Shared Belief is another with a world of class but nt the pedigree to sweep the series.

In the past I was very confident about Big Brown, Eskendereya and Union Rags. Big Brown's Belmont stakes remains a mystery to me since he towered like a collussus over one of the weakest crop of 3YOs in recent times. There are not many who would argue that 'Esky' looked like the most spectacular 3YO to come along since the era of Secretariat and Spectacular Bid ...and I'm proud to say that I spotted him before his runaway victories in both the FOY and Wood Memorial. We all know hat happened to Union Rags in the 2012 Kentucky Derby and I'll not change my opinion that with a more keen and enterprising Jockey than Julien Leparoux was on that day, he could have won the Derby (no disrespect to I'll Have Another).

Read up on Hyperion's record as a race horse and sire of sires and you just might begin to appreciate how influencial and significant this great horse is in pedgree analysis. He brings both stamina and class to his descendants. Groupie Doll's pedigree, like Union Rags is loaded with his influence and although she is a sprinter/miler, her offsprings are destined to be route runners.

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

The Bid — Mon, 24 Feb 2014 15:41:17 GMT

This weekend proved that TOP BILLING is a serious contender and WILDCAT RED and GENERAL AROD could be decent overlays. CAIRO PRINCE coming off layoff into Fla. Derby along with TOP BILLING will be both short prices, CAIRO PRINCE is going to have major issues getting 1 1/4 I believe, BUT the same cannot be said for TOP BILLING!!!(LEGIT)

Anxious to see HONOR CODE's debut, Shug will definitely have him ready! The Gotham stands to be an interesting race that seems to be flying under-the radar! There are some really nice speed/stamina sleepers in NY who seem to have some legitimate potential at a mile and a quarter! With SAMRAAT and UNCLE SIGH headlining with their previous eye-popping duel, BARATTI comes in with legit pace/setting credentials to spoil the aforementioned speed duel!! The one factor that needs explored that makes this race interesting is MOTHER NATURE!!! She has reaked havoc on the east coast and limited training to ALL of the contenders EXCEPT the shippers from Fla.!!! Makes for some interesting fodder in the very near future!

In closing....California seems to be the place with the most TC potential. CANDY BOY, CALIFORNIA CHROME, SHARED BELIEF being the ones with serious potential. HONOR CODE and TOP BILLING round out the rest of the crop with having the possible IT monicker. Not sold on ANYTHING in Louisianna or Arkansas (maybe to my detriment) just nothing STANDS OUT!!!! Things are just beginning to take shape for the BIG DAY in MAY, gonna be a great ride getting there!!!

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 24 Feb 2014 15:34:34 GMT

Mary,

“Top Billing ran out of track”

Each time I see the idiom above used as to describe the reason for a horse’s loss, I cannot help questioning its appropriateness. Did Top Billing run out of track when he was defeated by Commissioner in their previous meeting?

The configuration of most if not all tracks allow for continuous gallops and other motions. It is therefore unlikely that a horse will run out of track at any point in a race. What often happens is leaders are not decelerating at a quick enough pace for deep closer to capitalize.

Mr. Haskin and others alluded to the fact that with Top Billing’s lack of tactical speed, his assigned post in a large field would have been a major disadvantage at 1 1/16F, based on location of the starting gates in proximity to the first turn.

Top Billing’s rider had no option but to save ground or lose valuable lengths with a wide trip entering the 1st turn. The fraction were very fast and consequently his rider had to get him involve early to have a chance. He expended a lot of energy to close a wide gap in a quickly run race and got weary in the final 16th.

A victory for Top Billing on Saturday was contingent on him being able to record a time faster than 1:.41 from his unfavorable post. The bit of real-estate on which the race was contested had nothing to do with his lost as the distance of the race was predetermined.

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Linda in Texas — Mon, 24 Feb 2014 15:16:11 GMT

Bloodline Bob - Congrats to you on your bet and win! You no doubt were reading the best blog and sitting in the right place! Intense Holiday did not win by multiple lengths, but a win is a win! I still like him.

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Davids — Mon, 24 Feb 2014 06:20:35 GMT

Steve, if Normandy Invasion can break the track without trying then the other race result are suspect. How talented Constitution is,can only be measured at other tracks but you had to be impressed. Tonalist ran well also, despite the track bias.

Untapable's performance certainly questions the validity of Breeders' Cup Friday's results, no matter how much she has progressed over the Winter months.

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Mon, 24 Feb 2014 05:34:18 GMT

Coldfacts : Yes, it kinda was. Like I said, I'm no pedigree expert but I just can't see 5th generation and above having that much influence and that's why I posted the question. I was kinda kidding about my comment about "reaching" but I can't really question your angles as you've been researching pedigrees for a long time. I don't know if there's a definitive answer either but I was curious about how the bloggers who use pedigree a lot thinks. By the way, I hope you caught the super in the FOY since he got 4th. Here's a question for you, do you think Havana can get 10Fs ? He's one I like but I don't know if he's going to be short.

Bill Rinker : Thanks for your comment, I will definitely look up that book (hopefully they have it in Kindle) just for leisure reading and learn more about pedigrees. I'm an immediate pedigree handicapper, I don't go past that as I'm not familiar with the horses of the past. I am very intrigue at how people use it for handicapping and quite honestly am amazed at how many bloggers here use it for their handicapping preference. I think the only time I will seriously look at pedigree is when I hit the lotto and can afford to buy myself a horse, but not to race but just for riding. I would like to own one exactly like Hansen, who to me is the most gorgeous horse I've ever seen. I do enjoy reading people's comments and it does make me go research them online ( I use HRN to look up the pedigrees ) if something interests me. I think the fact that the horses of our generation are now bred for speed and no longer stamina. I play a lot of Australia races at night and watch Japan races online, just to see how a 10F races looks like lol. It's fun to actually see the horses run.

Ranagulzion : He won the Champagne (8F) and the FOY (8.5F) and lost the FD (9F) and the KD (10F). I'm of the opinion he's a miler and I will never change my opinion on that. Neither one of us can prove our point because he was conveniently retired after the Belmont. I think if you asked all the experts about how "tough" that Belmont field was, you won't be happy with the responses. Him winning the Belmont proved nothing about your point so I'm not sure why you kept saying you won that battle. At least you've learned your lesson about not predicting TC winners and I don't mind taking credit for having reminded you of that. Good luck in your Derby picks this year, hopefully you got it right with Honor Code this year. I'd like to see how he does in the Rebel, I think he's in for a nice race. I picked him very early last year as the horse I'm watching but have gotten off of him due to him being sidelined. I'm curious, how many horses from the last 3 years that did really well going long that has Hyperion in their bloodline ? I'm not being sarcastic, I'm really curious.

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

predict — Mon, 24 Feb 2014 04:42:28 GMT

Well I guess I have to find another number one, clearly Texas Ryano won't be pointing to the Derby.

Still not sure who to like yet, it truly is a long way to May.

Is there a Big Brown out there this year? You know, the type of horse that just goes out there, regardless of track biases or post positions and destroys his competition. I'm afraid that's kind of what I was thinking about TR. Does anyone think we have that kind of horse this year? Obviously Top Billing is a good horse and still may be formidable in the Derby, but he certainly is no Big Brown. Was the Gulfstream track especially fast this weekend? Probably it was, as the time of the FOY was probably overly flattering to both 'Red and 'A Rod. I guess I was just not very impressed by any of the performances this weekend. I don't know if it's just the name of the horses as some here have commented on, but I'm just not feeling it yet.

As far as those who questioned what influence a horse 4 or 5 generations back in a pedigree could have on a horse, that is a statistical question that a geneticist could provide for you a probablity or precentage answer and would probably have some explanation as to how difficult it would be to predict what kinds of influence you could expect. Fortunately or unfortunately genetics is a highly complicated mathematical science, and is never as easy as this sire and this dam and their sires were this or that, so they should produce a particulat type of individual. One has to look at at a horses' displayed abilities on the track first, then look at the pedigree for possible probabilities that they will have distance ability or an abundance of speed etc.

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 24 Feb 2014 04:35:44 GMT

Ranagulzion, Union Rags was the first horse in a very long time that I thought could possibly win the Triple Crown. In the Kentucky Derby he got bottled up and when he finally saw daylight, he exploded and ran the last furlong with more speed than any other horse in the field.

Johnny V. on his mount saw what was happening and could not believe that Leparoux did not take Union Rags to the outside. In the end, this extraordinarily talented horse passed the test of a champion. I'm looking forward to seeing his foals on the track.

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 24 Feb 2014 03:48:56 GMT

Ranagulzion, if you will remember, I was right up there with you relative to Union Rag's pedigree. Like you, I could not get over the fact that many were looking at his sire lines. His pedigree is loaded with stamina on the bottom.

Coldfacts, since stallions can sire hundreds of offspring, key broodmares are most often found through their best sons at stud. Mumtaz Mahal, Selene, La Troienne, and Plucky Liege all left their stamp on the breed.

As far as the placement of these broodmares in a pedigree, there are a few spots that are more advantageous than others. Mitochondrial DNA is only transmitted by mares, so such DNA can only come from the bottom line of a pedigree (the direct female family).

The heartline (x chromosome)has been shown to influence the size and function of the heart in hores. The heartline traces on a zig zag pattern to the dam, then to the dam's sire, then to his dam, etc. Great broodmare sires like Sir Gallhad, War Admiral, Buckpasser, and Secretariat may have benefited from a great X-chromosome that they transmitted to their daughters, never their sons.

You tend to completely ignore the value of the mare. The sire is only as great as the mare he is bred to IMO.

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Johnny — Mon, 24 Feb 2014 01:10:48 GMT

Was at Gulfstream yesterday for the FOY..

The top 2 horses were very nice looking colts of average size. I for sure will not play them come Derby day. Both colts came home starting to slwo down the last 1/4 was ran in 25sec.. Last 1/16th in 6 and changes. Give them a extra 4 lbs and 3/16th of a mile. I say they get caught..

Top Billing I noticed was the smallest colt in the race.

Not much of him but if the race was longer he would of caught the leaders...

Unless the top 2 learn to control their speed I say Cairo Prince,Top Billing exacta come Florida Derby.

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Brontexx — Mon, 24 Feb 2014 00:38:16 GMT

If CT is dropped still have him with at least 4 that will be added this week just not at 500-1,but still workable odds compared to what they will be for exactas on the day of the race.

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Brontexx — Mon, 24 Feb 2014 00:35:09 GMT

Come to think of it Conquest Titan could be dropped.

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Brontexx — Mon, 24 Feb 2014 00:27:36 GMT

Check that Top Billing will not be dropped he has 10 points,for his backers his odds SHOULD GO UP.

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Brontexx — Mon, 24 Feb 2014 00:23:52 GMT

Commissioner was a non-factor (glad I didnt bet a cent on the race) but I want to see who the 23 are for next weekends derby futures.I still have Conquest Titan although he didnt run this weekend so he got no points,but I will add more combinations with him.

I would imagine Commissioner and Top billing wont be in the top 23.I also think Kristo,Matterhorn and Tonalist will be dropped.

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Sun, 23 Feb 2014 23:25:09 GMT

Jay Jay: You've acknowledged to not being a pedigree expert yet you continue to poke fun at the multiple Hyperion influence in Union Rags stamina which I've explained ad naseum. Remember this friend, you insisted that the horse was a miler while I predicted that he would get the distance of the Belmont Stakes without any problem long before other notable pedigree buffs acknowledged it. Like you they simply looked at his sire, Dixie Union's shortened stud career and formed their opinion. You should pause to reflect that perhaps Ranagulzion could teach you a thing or two about pedigree analysis.

The first three generations are the most influential but inbreeding is a major factor influencing speed/stamina. There are certain sires and dams of the past, going back five or more generations that, when present multiple times in the pedigree matrix, have to be considered as potential influences. Sires of old like Buckpasser,Ribot,Princequillo and Hyperion should not be ignored and mares like Cap and Bells,Natalma, Cosmah, Almahmoud and La Trionne are prized by breeders searching for class ...the more these feature going back, the better. Its about time you give up on the Union Rags wrestling match ...everyone on here knows that you lost that fight bro. Peace.

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Sun, 23 Feb 2014 19:41:16 GMT

robinm, I agree with you, Top Billing ran out of track. He is an impeccably bred colt; loaded with stamina on the tail side of his pedigree. He simply needs and desires more distance. Hopefully he will remain at the top of Steve's picks or close thereto.

I'm disappointed that Vicar ran 3rd in the Risen Star. I was at the Fair Grounds for the race, and I must say he is a spectacular looking foal. I expect that the top 3 finishers will show up for the Louisiana Derby. I'm going to throw the race out, and continue to support Vicar's In Trouble.

My top picks at this point are Top Billing, California Chrome, Candy Boy, and Vicar's In Trouble.

Shared Belief is another impeccably bred horse, but I don't know what his status is at this point.

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Sail On — Sun, 23 Feb 2014 19:01:27 GMT

Hi Steve, it looks like your Derby Dozen is a valid guide. Your #1 proved he deserves #1 consideration. A very game performance on a speedy track from outside. Vicar also ran from far outside, but in a considerably slower test.

Certainly, both A Rod and that smallish Red horse deserve another look. Andamo was ill served by his jockey who looked back once, not seeing the winner closing, thought he had the race in hand.

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bill Rinker — Sun, 23 Feb 2014 18:00:00 GMT

Jay Jay, Again I must say that I do not consider myself an expert in genetics, or pedigree, but I enjoy that aspect of all things Thoroughbred. In general the farther back you have to go to find an identifying characteristic in ancestry the higher the likelihood for diminshed influence. But that may not always be the case, and it helps to be as objectively netural as possible when searching for clues. In some cases our present understanding of equine genetics can be quite concise, such as in determining coat color. Conversly other traits can be not so predictable to nearly impossible to determine with reasonable certainty. However, like anything else the more time you put in the better your chances are of recognizing the correlation between individuals and families that in turn will most likely improve your success at the betting window. For me, I love to search thru pedigree pages, and along the way I have picked up many interesting bits of information regarding racing and breeding history. If this appeals to you at all, there is a book availible that may shed some light on your question. The name of the book is "Understanding The Power Of The X-Factor", patterns of Heart Score and Performance, by Marianna Haun. It was out of print for quite some time, and purchasing a copy was insanely expensive. But there is good news, an affordable third edition is currently available, and you should have no trouble finding it on-line. I'm not trying to plug a read here, but it could be helpful. There have been varing opinions on the applicable validity of this book, but it is based on extensive reaserch. I hope this has been of some use to you, and good luck on your future wagers.

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Sun, 23 Feb 2014 17:26:33 GMT

Robinm,

I agree that Top Billing ran well under those conditions. He may not be 1 but I'll bet he stays in the top 5. Steve is very loyal. I know I like Top Billing more after yesterdays effort than I did before. GP is not playing fair right now for anyone but front speed so TB showed a consistency of style, class, and a desire for more ground that should have impressed anyone paying attention.

That said, I think Steve will place Cairo Prince in the #1 spot and this comment, should be considered for Steve's contest if that is the case.

Kotashaan93

#1 - Cairo Prince: Giving him a break now may not be the traditional route, but we've been breaking traditions this past decade in getting a horse to the Derby. Being that Steve's Derby Dozen isn't about where they will be, but where they are now. Cairo Prince belongs at the top. Having run 3 strong races at 1m+, he's had as much or more bottom than any other horse. He's been impressive in each start, even in defeat to Honor Code. Look for his best second start off a layoff - May 3rd.

re: Derby Dozen - February 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Linda in Texas — Sun, 23 Feb 2014 16:09:56 GMT

Coldfacts: With regard to your comment about We Miss Artie's name being odd. Allow me to tell you why he is named 'an odd name.' He was purchased at the 2012 Keeneland September Yearly Sale for $90,000. The colt was named for Sara Ramsey's cousin's husband Artie who had died recently. Also adding to the reason for the 'odd name' is that We Miss Artie was sired by Artie Schiller by El Prado (IRE). Thus 'We Miss Artie.' Makes perfect sense to me, i heard that the day he raced mentioned by an HRTV announcer before the race.