Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Uncle Smiley — Tue, 08 Apr 2014 01:57:54 GMT

Dr. Drunkenbum,

One month later, and statistics now display Vicar's in Trouble ranked second, after California Chrome, among North American Starters.

Where did Cairo Prince go? And where did Candy Boy come from last week?

You are correct! It is always too early to pick the crown entries.

But I like your thinking of Vicar's in the BC. Somehow if they survive all this spring time broo ha ha, there is always a second shot in theFall.

Still am convinced that Rosie N can and will try her utmost best to take the Derby. As you noted last month she has a good colt in Vicar's inTrouble to pursue that goal.

Yet...

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Wed, 05 Mar 2014 17:04:02 GMT

Mary

I have no option but to respond to your no doubt thoughtful advice. It has never been my policy to make disrespectful submission. We all have writing styles that we use to communicate our position and opinions. I have been very careful that the phrasing of my views coincides with the terms and conditions for participation, that have been repeatedly outlined by Mr. Haskin.

Some views are best expressed in simple sentences while others are best expressed with complexly phased sentences for greater impact. The decision rest with the writer as to which approach would best communicates said views. I now realize that a more subtle writing style is more appropriate for this forum.

You gave an overview of Top Billing in your post. Several horses come to us with impeccable credentials. I consider Commissioner an appropriate example of one such horse. A son of A P Indy out of a Tough Gold with an imposing physique! He defeated TB in their previous meeting. After that victory he was highly regarded as a true Derby horse. He was an also ran in the FOY and it was unlikely that if the distance of the race was another 1.5F, he would have caught the leaders. Has he lost his status of a true Derby horse? Did the winner of the FOY secure the status of a true Derby horse?

Excellent pedigree and an electrifying turn of foot are excellent credentials to possess. However, the horse possessing those credentials is no more a true Derby horse than the one with lesser credentials that has defeated him. They will bring different strengths to contest the grueling 10F of the Kentucky Derby. One will be required carry his speed and the other will be required to capitalize on the other’s perceived stamina deficiency. The 10F of the Derby will prove to be the equalizer.

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Brontexx — Mon, 03 Mar 2014 20:01:05 GMT

Fellow bloggers I realize that some of you have been coming to this blog long before I knew it existed, and participate yearly in this ritual of posting your Derby Dozen.

While this helps you keep up to date with the happenings of many colts you have your eye on, I seriously doubt many of you play all of your selections on the day of the race.

There is a way to have an exacta box with half the field or more prior to the derby.You have to begin with 2 or three of your favorites and ad more as the races happen and your opinions change, or remain the same.

Its called Derby futures and I know its a risky bet because you are betting on colts that might not even make it in the gate,but the exacta odds are much much better than you will get on the day of the race.Just one suggestion dont try to make a killing by sticking with one or two throughout the future wagers,thats when the ODDS ARE AGAINST YOU,if you can navigate progressively through each wagering period with intelligence you could find yourself holding a lot more than half of the exacta combinations.Thats when THE ODDS ARE IN YOUR FAVOR.

The day of the race you could use your derby futures to hedge or to swing for the fences keeping in mind WHAT YOU HAVE ALREADY WAGERED as a guideline to how much will you spend to make a score.

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Rinzler — Mon, 03 Mar 2014 16:46:45 GMT

Zarvona, you mean the Spiral Stakes (G3) at Turfway Park?

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 03 Mar 2014 16:16:54 GMT

Coldfacts, the right thing to do is simply state your case in a respectful manner and move on.

Top Billing comes to us with impeccable credentials; he has the pedigree to get the distance and a very quick turn of foot. Most people would agree that he is a derby horse.

Wildcat Red IMO is a sprinter. His dosage index is 5.67. No horse has ever won the derby with such a high dosage.

General a Rod has a pretty nice pedigree, and is worth keeping an eye on.

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Jeffrey Simes — Mon, 03 Mar 2014 15:00:53 GMT

Steve still sticking with Top Billing but that track is not a friend of his the way it plays right now, much like I-95 and Santa Anita.

Jeff

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 03 Mar 2014 13:50:10 GMT

The Deacon,

I am not sure this submission will be posted but for what is worth, I have noted your comments and will act on them accordingly. It's sometimes difficult to understand the basis of some conclusions when the facts make others more appropriate. I guess to each his own.

One Love!

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 03 Mar 2014 13:47:46 GMT

Uncle Smiley

One more thing- I believe that Rosie will win the Derby someday, and I'd like to see that happen so maybe this is her year. At least she is on a talented colt.

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 03 Mar 2014 13:43:39 GMT

Uncle Smiley

I always like seeing you here and reading your comments. We still have a long way to go for Derby predictions and there is a lot of talent out there so we can't fit everyone on to a Derby Dozen. It has to be a matter of personal preferences.

Vicar's in Trouble is very talented and a win at any distance will never surprise me even if he isn't my top pick in the race. A Derby win will surprise me a little but not too much and he certainly deserves to be in the field. I personally just think that 10f won't be his optimal distance. He's talented enough to go for a Derby run however. I would be excited also if I had him. He has a strong move. I'm not sure he can sustain it in a 10f race but I certainly have an open mind with him and will be looking forward to his next race. The next two weeks are huge for getting a better understanding of who some of the top horses are.

I did a reevaluation of my list before the weekend races and made some changes. After Havana was scratched I went back to my list to take him off but then discovered that I had already taken him off, determining him not to be a Derby horse. Eventhough Vicar's in Trouble isn't on my list yet he could be. He still is a possible Derby horse and very talented for sure. If I owned him I would take the Derby path to see what he could do but would be most excited about the BC Mile on dirt in his future. But that is an early assessment and I could very easily change my mind. I sometimes think with some Derby horses on the trail that there is no way they should be on it and should be a sprinter or miler. Vicar's is definitely not just a sprinter although he possibly could sprint and be successful. My top four before and after this past weekend's races are in order- Intense Holiday, Top Billing, Conquest Titan, and Bayern.

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 03 Mar 2014 01:46:31 GMT

Ranagulzion, you may be right. In Trouble and Vicar's In Trouble are nice horses, but obviously there is a big question mark as to whether either one will make it to the derby.

I'm just wondering why In Trouble didn't rate a bit off the pace like he did in his last two performances.

Vicar's In Trouble normally rates closer to the pace but in the Risen Star he was further back.

From a pedigree standpoint, Top Billing and Honor Code are at the top. I will give the edge to Top Billing. California Chrome and Candy Boy are also on my list.

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Uncle Smiley — Mon, 03 Mar 2014 01:20:26 GMT

Coldfacts,

Your equine erudition is now out matched by your class, given your last communique with Mr. Haskins.

Dr. Drunkenbum

Looking forward to you continued prognostications.

Vicar's in Trouble, very strong and eager with connections equally avid.

What do you think?

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Azathoth — Mon, 03 Mar 2014 00:57:09 GMT

Hoping Samraat can keep it up!

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 23:59:22 GMT

Well, with the Gotham the New York party has ended on a high note ...great show by both Samraat and Uncle Sigh. The truth about Derby quality will be seen in the Wood Memorial when sundry shippers arrive for the crucial points and Grade 1 status. Samraat's place in the Kentucky Derby is safe and I think that his presence would be significant in the pace scenario at Churchill Downs but ...will he see out the distance? This is a good colt that should rather be pointed to the Preakness IMO.

Mary: Vicar's in Trouble and In Trouble are both in deep waters on the Triple Crown trail. The latter ran well off the lay-off but I don't think that he has the class to be a major player in the Derby. The Wood Memorial will answer the questions.

At present my dozen are:

1)Honor Code 2)Shared Belief 3) Top Billing 4) Tapiture 5) California Chrome 6)General a Rod 7)Wildcat Red 8)Cairo Prince 9) Constitution 10) Koby's Back 11)Bobby's Kitten 12)Conquest Titan

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bill Rinker — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 23:35:42 GMT

Sail On, Thank you for suggesting a format change to my post, and it has not fallen on deaf ears. Pedigree Ann made the same suggestion and I tried, but unfortunately with little improvement. As of this posting I have not been able to reach a workable agreement with my computer. When I try using paragraphs the computer and I under go a margin crisis, making the text even harder to decipher. On top of this I am possessed of the spelling skills equal to that of Farmer Brown. And in this day of modern technology, what would take the average person a mere ten minutes to complete, takes me approximately one hour. I am really, really, really sorry about this as I would like to make any improvements that I can to help those who would care to read it. I suspect my service provider should be quarantined due to a severe case of the coody's as it continues to display symptoms of ataxia with this site in general. Unfortunately when trying to access video features I often encounter trouble with laggatosis, and speechaslurria. Getting back to Vicar's in Trouble and the Risen Star. I thought he did a lot of really good things in the race, and hopefully it should help to move him forward. I'm not inclined to insinuate anything detracting or circumstantial regarding Intense Holiday or Albano's race. Both of these colts ran very impressivly, and I have an even greater endearment towards Intense Holiday knowing of his near death misfortune as a foal. However, I am concerned about Vicar's stretch run and as previously stated it would be nice to know what Rosie's feelings are. It is very hard to accurately interpert issues like this being so far from the event. I don't want to come across like a broken record but if perhaps Vicar is shying, then it may be challenging to move him past his fear or dislike in a timely manner. He seems to be really on the bit when he races, and has shown a endless source of energy. There is little doubt that the race was taxing. But it didn't appear to me that as he was tiring so much as it looked more like he disengaged from his effort. Lately we have been kicking the can around with respect to stamina and pedigree. When I recognize a noted stamina influence in a pedigree I regard it with optmistic caution. It's a real good thing see and start with, but it doesn't mean I'll run out side and shovel snow in my flip flops. Even with a high likely hood of ancestral genetic disposition, stamina may sometimes take an altered and or lenghty corse of development. Quite often a horse may change directions due to circumstances that can be easily over looked. The events that unfold during a race can greatly increase or diminish their confidence and perception of how to race, and how to continue racing successfully and happily. The relationship between Jockey and Thoroughbred is just as important if not more so than many of the elements of their physical being. It's a constant learning process that we can only hope will continue to move in the right direction. The better they become most often times results in more challenges they and their caretakers will have to overcome. Often times with improved fitness the energy levels increase exponentially. Which requires a keen sense of understanding to safely manage the unforseen fragility of this prowess. All systems need to work in harmony while avoiding distraction and over confidence. I have been both impressed and puzzeled by the published stories that surround these events. As we continue to watch and anticipate the results of each week's races we can only hope that things work out in a positive manner.

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Redmangeorge — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 22:41:03 GMT

Steve, it's Honor Code, with his 59 & change workout on the 2nd; says he's ready to go.

After he wins the Rebel, he will be the Derby Futures 4 favorite.

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 20:52:03 GMT

Pedigree Ann, thank you so much for the compliment. I look forward to and enjoy reading your comments. You have great knowledge of the sport, so keep on writing.

Zarvona, I also was surprised by In Trouble's attempt to wire the field. In his first two races, he stalked the pace, so I don't know what to think about him now. He did swerve a bit running along the rail, so maybe blinkers is the answer.

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

mz — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 18:30:58 GMT

Pedigree Ann: Dick and Jane are so proud. But Puff is on the sidelines, planning revenge.

Thx for the memories, LOL

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 18:15:52 GMT

Very impressive race by Samraat, I was very glad to see him rate behind In Trouble and Uncle Sigh and was 3 wide all the way. The real deal. I was equally impressed with In Trouble, first race after a long layoff and held on for 3rd. I think he'll benefit a lot from this race and will be very tough in the Wood Memorial. I'm not sure if Contessa will go to the Wood or avoid Samraat and In Trouble and find the points somewhere else. I think if they go to the FD instead, they might have a better shot. I think he's a much better horse than General A Rod. I mentioned before, I don't like the inner track at Aqueduct because it makes horses look better when they win but most often than not, they don't do as well when switched to the main track. Samraat did win at Belmont so I think he can do the same switching to the main track for the Wood. Having had two tough races, I would actually prefer if Samraat skips the Wood and go directly to the Derby. I think 60 points is enough to stay in. He's currently my number one after Rise Up failed to rise up in the Risen Star.

Did anyone see the Battaglia Memorial Stakes?? Poker Player is slowwwwwww but he keeps coming, he was dead last, about 4,319 lengths behind, he wasn't going to catch Solitary Ranger but he was striding along effortlessly (maybe a little green). I think they should take the blinkers off and let him run his race in the Spiral. It's his first race of the year, he should improve a lot from this race. It was also good to see a Zito horse win a prep race, looking forward to seeing him show up in the Florida Derby, I like the Pulpits.

I just hope there are no more injuries…this might be a year where the top 2 yr old colts will be no-shows in the Derby. If Honor Code doesn't make the Rebel, I'm pretty sure Shug will probably give up trying instead of rushing him to get the points. TP did that with Palace Malice last year where he kept putting him in different races to get the points.

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

AnneM — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 18:12:36 GMT

Not sure why Samraat has not been in the top 12 yet - hopefully now he will be.

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 16:47:57 GMT

LOL Annie, but in my book, “SPOT” was a dog ???? {{you best check that picture again, huh}} lol

However, it is amazing how a horse can finish 8 lengths back in the Hutcheson and then come back and win the Swale all after a simple trainer switch ???

Finally, horses bred to go longer and a show of real SPEED !!! Where has the speed been anyway? Gone with the old drug regimes ? …

Good crop this year, but I really feel we have been evaluating and comparing some sub rated animals thus far regarding searching for the Derby winner. Just my opinion.

Now, not a bad showing for “In Trouble” off the layoff and his 1st two turn event…a little surprised that he tried to wire the field though ???

AND all I can say is WOW. 1 1/8 in 1:46.19 really ???? yeah over the turf in Florida, but … {{Now, didn’t I once hear… “that a GOOD horse can run over any Surface and perform anytime?” “Again, that being… a GOOD HORSE !!!”. Well, I don’t really see “Gala Award” handling much more distance,--although great showing,--but what about “Mr. Speaker” and “Stormin Inti” ??? huh ? … there are 3 horses above from my previous earlier 40 list. And, “Conquest Titan” has been in all ? future pools to date. Now you know why my early lists differ far from Steve’s ???. yes or no ?? {{Although it is tough to bet on the likes of a “Talent Show” if he ain’ta ever gonna show up on a race track, huh?… The ‘Cadillac in the garage theory” is one thing, but if you’re gonna try for a Derby win, you have to take it on the road sometime. One has to ask, ‘why spend so much money on a breeding pet’ if you ain’ta gonna race him??? Can we get an update Steve ??}}

Baby, it ain’t all about last weeks winners or performances or some first two-turn run winners in February and March. Just go back and ask “Super Saver” and “Prince Sylmar”. {{Did either ever win a prep race??? I don’t think so.}} And I can’t wait for the runnings of this year’s Illinois Derby ? !!! the ARKANSAS DERBY !!! The *$$^(*_*%$%$^&* WOOD Memorial !! … and whatever that race was on that artificial surface that “Animal Kingdom” ran over. lol

And of course the major events that are THE Santa Anita DERBY !! and THE Florida DERBY !!!

Oh Boy, from N.Y.?? from Fla. ??? from the left Coast ??? from the heartland ??? where is our Derby winner to come from ???

OH Baby !! … “the fever” is really getting hotter ain’t it ???….

GO Baby GO baby GO !!!!

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Tiz Herself — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 16:41:33 GMT

The Oaks is also shaping to have solid fillies... I have my own dozen of them too...

1) Awesome Baby

2) Untapable

3) Dame Dorothy

4) Cast in Silver

5) Onlyforyou

6) Unbridled Forever

7) Arethusa

8) My Conquestadory

9) She's A Tiger

10) Got Lucky

11) Sloane Square

12) Fashion Plate

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Tiz Herself — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 16:27:07 GMT

really nice race between Samraat, Uncle Sigh and In Trouble... especially Samraat and Uncle Sigh... am anticipating when they meet up again! Almost reminds me of Havre de Grace and Blind Luck when they met in battle!

Swale stakes winner Spot looks like a nice horse - a son of Pulpit over Quiet American mare is a nice cross imo. A.P. Indy over Quiet American mare of course was Bernardini among others.

Solitary Ranger is one I have been watching for a while as I liked U S Ranger when I met him in Kentucky in 2010... interesting to see where he goes from his score in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes.

And Gala Award may be dirt bound, 1/2 brother to Stormello... maybe the Animal Kingdom this year?

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

robinm — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 15:50:08 GMT

Forgot to mention the Swale. At 7 furlongs, it's hard to see this as a Derby prep., but like others on this blog, I was looking forward to seeing No Nay Never. He is indeed a beautiful colt and his pedigree says he should be more than a sprinter and should have no problem with dirt. Could be he was simply too close to a hot pace and with more realistic fractions will carry his speed. Could be he needed the race.

The Pulpit colt who collared him and opened a clear lead, has a nice pedigree for distance, a super dosage, if that means anything anymore, but a horrible name (who names a thoroughbred "Spot")and a not very pretty way of going. Nice to see Nick Zito with a potential Derby colt, though.

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

robinm — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 15:36:27 GMT

The Gotham was a great horse race; 3 determined colts fighting to the line, but did we see a true Derby contender? I don't think so. The final 16th was slow (nearly 7 seconds) and none of the internal fractions were fast enough to account for that. On a positive note, Into Trouble may have needed the race and Samraat looked like he may have had something left. All 3 colts have plenty of heart. Can it get them another 3/16ths of a mile?

re: Derby Dozen - February 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 15:14:37 GMT

See Spot run.

See Spot run fast.

Run, Spot, run.

See Spot win.

See Spot pay $21.

Good, Spot, good.

A little something for the baby-boomers among us. And I cribbed the idea from somebody over at DRF.

And Mary, thank you very much for knowing that when a situation involves is more than two, 'among' is proper and 'between' is wrong. My Great-aunt Sadie, the high-school English teacher, salutes you.