Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Sun, 16 Mar 2014 19:07:27 GMT

Ranagulzion : LOL at "not smart"... I'm actually smart, I don't guarantee triple crown winners in January. And what skills are you talking about ? How can you claim you have skills at picking Triple Crown winners ? How many have you correctly picked? Oh, that's right, NONE. Just so you know, winning a Triple Crown means you have to win the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness together with the Belmont. Winning the Belmont doesn't equal Triple Crown winner lol.

Are you denying saying that Trinniberg will win the Derby ? I remember you posting that this horse has the potential to upset the derby, that he'll "surprise" everyone. And by you proclaiming UR the triple crown winner means you have to pick him to win the Derby. It's no surprise that you would pick someone else to beat your triple crown winner, you like to switch around to save face. I didn't say my pick won and yours didn't, I said you picked Trinniberg to win the Derby and I said he won't hit the board…I was right, you were wrong.

If Social Inclusion somehow manage to win the Florida Derby, then I'll take a look at him. Until then, he's an allowance horse who had no one to pressure him beating an off formed Honor Code. Funny how now you're saying you're forecasting when you clearly said you're anointing him to be the one to break the TC drought…do you know what "anoint" means ?

It's very clear that you get excited anytime a horse romps, regardless of the race, the field etc. A behaviour commonly seen with newbies. There's a post in the recent dozen blog about Dreaming of Julia, have you read it yet? You told me she'll come back to redeem herself, I'm still waiting pal…

You'll be waiting a long long time, nothing in the new points systems shows any issues. The right horses are getting in Derby, you need to stop whining about it already. Embrace it, it works.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Sat, 15 Mar 2014 18:10:45 GMT

Jay Jay: Nice try ...but you're not very smart buddy ...again its plain for all to see. Your scoring is plain hocus pocus ...firstly, If I pick a horse to win who did you pick? ...secondly, how could I have picked Trinniberg and Union Rags to win the same race? (LOL).

Honor Code was my early fancy for the Kentucky Derby since his Champagne but now that I've spotted a potential super colt in Social Inclusion I think its quite okay to make the switch and to add Triple Crown winner to my forecast. Whats wrong with that?

I like the challenge of spotting the next great horse to sweep the Triple Crown series ...its by no means an obsession, just an aspect of the game that fascinates me and for which I have the skills (eat your heart out).

I'll patiently wait for the novelty of the points system to wear off and its inferiority to the graded stakes earnigs system to become abundantly clear ...should take maybe no more than two more seasons. Peace.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Sat, 15 Mar 2014 08:05:25 GMT

Ranagulzion : Let's see :

You forecasted Trinniberg to win the Derby, I said he wouldn't hit the board : You 0, Me 1

You proclaimed Union Rags the Triple Crown winner in January, I didn't : You 0, Me 2

You proclaimed Union Rags to win the Kentucky Derby, I didn't : You 0, Me 3

You said he'll win the Belmont Stakes, I said no he won't : You 1, Me 3

For someone who claims to have knowledge of pedigrees, your record doesn't quite support it. I'll tell you why, you don't analyze pedigrees, you see what you want to see to justify picking horses 10 years in advance to win the Triple Crown because you're obsessed in being one that can predict triple crown winners.

Yes, Trinniberg made the Derby and took a spot from another horse that probably could've run better than him. He beat 3 horses (meaning he finished 17TH!) This is why the new points system works , no longer a speedster can get in off of one sprint race that earns them enough graded money. Embrace the new points system, it works.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Fri, 14 Mar 2014 18:50:11 GMT

Jay Jay: Be my guest ...only, try not to rehash old skirmishes that you came up on the wrong side of by using misrepresentaion. I do appreciate fairplay and I'll respond to your comments with pleasure. Back in the 2012 Derby Triniberg ran very well and made a telling contribution to the pace scenario as I forcasted. I know that you wanted Bodemeister to get a free ride on the front end ...sorry pal. I guess you're also upset that Triniberg qualified for the Derby under the superior graded earnings system ...get over it Jay Jay.

This year I've touted your favourite colt, Samraat in both his victories over Uncle Sigh. He's a quality miler in the making and I believe that he could fare better being pointed to the Preakness but I don't see him finishing in the frame in the Kentucky Derby because of the very high probability of stamina limitations according to my reading of his pedigree. You are entitled to your views but from the evidence so far, highlighted by your unrepentant classification of Belmont Stakes winner, Union Rags, as a miler I think that you have a lot to learn about pedigree analysis.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

cuba"s classic chef de race — Fri, 14 Mar 2014 02:45:22 GMT

Steve,Leo Azpurua is 85 year's old and want to win the derby whit a horse that has run twice in his life? I hope he ran big in the Fla Derby Dunkirk did it with just 2 races like him so it is possible.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

cuba"s classic chef de race — Fri, 14 Mar 2014 02:22:29 GMT

Steve,Rosario won like 5 races in one single card for M.Maker did you see how strong G.A.Rod did Gallop out after the fountain of youth ?

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Thu, 13 Mar 2014 04:10:16 GMT

Ranagulzion : LOL, yes, that's my only purpose on this blog, to call you out, to ridicule you. I plan my day around it actually, I sit in front of my computer all day waiting for you to comment and pounce on it!!!

So Trinniberg is a derby contender and Samraat is not ? I remember you touting this horse taking the Derby all the way. Just a simple question...

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Wed, 12 Mar 2014 13:46:02 GMT

sceptre: I dont think that we live on different planets ...its our understanding of weak pedigree. I classify pedigree in respect of classic distance vis a vis sprinter/miler orientation firstly of the first three generations then depending on the horse's race track performance and talent I may go deeper. Also interms of breeding potential I have to look deeper. I didn't that Curlin's pedigree was weak, neither for racing nor the breeding shed. in my view he's gotten off to a very good start throwing decent triple Crown aspirants in his first two crops (Palace Malice, Top Billing and Ride On Curlin come readily to mind).

I remeber reading your assessment of Dr Fager that he was not very stoutly bred and thought that to be a most ridiculous conclusion especially in view of the impact of Dr Fager's antecedents Rough and Tumble and Aspidistra (Holy Bull, Macho Uno and Mucho Macho Man come readily to mind).

Jay Jay: You clearly are more interested in trying to ridicule my views than gain understanding of pedigree analysis. My above response to sceptre should address your skepticism about my assessment of Samraat but I'm not holding my breath. You just watch for the outcome ...patience always wins out with you. Peace.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

sceptre — Tue, 11 Mar 2014 02:12:05 GMT

Ranagulzion:

You and I must live on different planets. By your criteria almost no horse would be deemed to have a weak pedigree...Also, Curlin's pedigree-both top and bottom-offers no comparison to that of California Chrome's. Lastly, Curlin's stud performance, thus far, is far from a "roaring success". Like I said, we must live on different planets.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Tue, 11 Mar 2014 01:45:56 GMT

Ranagulzion : So when it comes to Shared Belief, you're willing to go that far back....again to Hyperion to justify his chances winning the Triple Crown but with Samraat, you stopped with Storm Cat and Indian Charlie....lol. What a joke...

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Mon, 10 Mar 2014 23:56:57 GMT

sceptre: Concerning weak pedigree,I prefer to trust my own judgment. I wouldn't call a colt with a Rasmussen factor, inbred to Numbered Account on the dam's side, weak, given that his sire is fairly well bred and was himself no slouch on the track.

I remember some pedigree experts suggesting that Curlin's pedigree was weak on the dam side and that his sire Smart Strike was not reputed to be a sire of sires but look at the roaring start that Curlin is having to his stud career, outperforming his old triple crown rivals, Street Sense and Hard Spun in the breeding shed.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Mon, 10 Mar 2014 20:37:50 GMT

The Bid: Samraat is by a Storm Cat line stallion out of an Indian Charlie broodmare. This does not promise a great deal in terms of staying 10 furlongs in the Kntucky Derby where he is most likely to be stalking a torrid pace. For this reason he is not an elite Derby contender in my view.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Brontexx — Mon, 10 Mar 2014 20:15:30 GMT

Rangulization RE GOD lets keep it simple it was pace and track.When he ran at the same track SA late in the year in the two previous Breeders Cups he couldnt get the lead as easily from the horses in those fields as opposed to the one yesterday.

And if you thought Gulfstream was speed biased for the FOY SA was a freeway for speed.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Brontexx — Mon, 10 Mar 2014 20:06:55 GMT

The Bid whatI implied is that if we dont see Shared Belief in the same race as Animal Kingdom last prepped the Spiral he wont make it and just prepping in the Bluegrass wont give him the racing he needs to even attempt the KD on dirt.Animal Kingdom had two races before the KD and the first was an allowance at Gulfstream Park where he finished 2nd,I think it is you that forgot that fact.If we dont see Shared Belief in the Spiral hes not running is the gist of what I posted and you apparently didnt understand.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

sceptre — Mon, 10 Mar 2014 18:34:10 GMT

Ranagulzion:

California Chrome is extremely weakly bred, so if I were you I wouldn't be trumpeting his pedigree as an obvious reason for his apparent talent. His dam finally broke her maiden for 8k, and his 2nd dam, not much of a producer, broke her maiden at Charles Town. His sire, Lucky Pulpit, was a fair runner, and a decent Calif. sire, but his stud fee tells it all. The best part of Calif. Chromes dam's pedigree is found in the fact that she's 3x3 to Numbered Account, the best female runner I've ever witnessed. But, this inbreeding didn't enable her to be anything more than just a cheap claimer. You can go back a ways in any pedigree and find real quality, but it's influence is only very rarely a controlling factor. That said, no doubt California Chrome did inherit a relatively higher proportion of the better elements of his sire's and dam's genotype. Was this enough to enable him to be a really top runner? The odds are very much against it, but it's not impossible...Forget about that underbred stallion baloney, it's ludicrous; and please dismiss that X-factor heart-line nonsense. There is no scientific/genetic evidence to support that silly theory-and I challenge anyone to offer such evidence-remember what is my "definition" of evidence. You can believe what you want, but don't offer statements of fact where none exists.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Mon, 10 Mar 2014 18:25:12 GMT

Pedigree Ann: I appreciate very much your comments on Shared Belief's distance capabilities from a pedigree standpoint. In my approach, while taking into consideration the on track performances of the distaff side of the pedigree, I put more weight on the actual bloodlines of the broodmares in my analysis since unlike their male counterparts that sire dozens of offspring, each mare can only produce one offspring per year which might not truly represent/show her potential/propensity to throw offsprings that would outperform her in class and distance. Thusly, in observing Shared Belief's performances to date, he looks like a 3YO that has already out performed his female family's on track performances in class and distance. Therefore it makes a lot of sense to factor in the make-up of his pedigree in forcasting his potential to win at classic distances.

I find that in top class individuals there's invariably more to them than a cursory look at the first three generations. Secretariat, Holy Bull and more recently Union Rags (although we didn't get to see his full potential) come to mind.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Mon, 10 Mar 2014 16:53:24 GMT

sceptre: Take another look at California Chrome's pedigree and you should appreciate where his talent comes from. His sire, Lucky Pulpit (ideally underbred as per Coldfacts' theory which you make fun of :),is an AP Indy line stallion, inbred to stamina influence (big heart X-factor carrier, which you also scoff at :), Princequillo 6x6x5x5). On the dam side he's inbred to Buckpasser (source of the La Troinne influence) 5x5, not to mention Hyperion via Vaguely Noble and Northern Dancer. Watch this colt with amazement and perhaps reconsider some of your dogmas.

Coldfacts & Lazmznick: Whats your take on Game On Dude's Santa Anita tour d'force. It was a sensational run but I can't wrap my head around how he could put away a true-to-form, hard-charging Will Take Charge like that against the backdrop of his last three outings ...he even galloped out like he was ready to do another lap of the Santa Anita track ...a 7YO gelding?

What do you think has accounted for this "new lease on life" ...the pull he got in the weight allotment for the race or that he had only light challenge on the lead? I'm interested in your points of view.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Linda in Texas — Mon, 10 Mar 2014 16:00:35 GMT

Dr.D, i wondered why you were beating yourself up so badly. Now i know why, "WTC by 3" oh my! :) Don't feel too bad, you had lots of company. Tomorrow and tomorrow will be a new race! So better luck next time. BTW, Mr. Schiappa chided the HRTV folks that they did not even consider Dude a threat or even that he was in the race, so to speak. They fidgeted somewhat and found a bit of redemption in their answer, so you were not alone.

IMISSSLEW, WEMISSSLEW, WHEREISSLEW? A great mind is a terrible thing to waste.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

The Bid — Mon, 10 Mar 2014 15:22:51 GMT

Ranagulzion

I am with U on one SHARED BELIEF....Cannot be ignored, only those who doubt him will be missing out on something SPECIAL. BRONTEXX questions his ability to make the Derby not running on Dirt prior to, but he has clearly forgotten ANIMAL KINGDOM! Not only did he also make a very late debut at 3, but he also didn't run on dirt till the Derby. Recent history makes his assumption regarding SHARED BELIEF a mute point. With regard to a Triple Crown Winner what are your questions and or hesitations with SAMRAAT??? Mine would ONLY be can he be versatile enough to come from off the pace, he clearly has shown a lot of early speed where that may not be an issue even if he draws outside! He has also won at Belmont as well, I know it was not a mile and a half but he is familiar with the long turns and stretch!

CALIFORNIA CHROME....The NEW #1 and very much deserving! THAT was EYE-POPPING and from my perspective his stretch run drawing off MIDNIGHT HAWK was ASTONISHING to say the least!!! He is legitimate and I just have a feeling about him, his look, demeanor screams STAR!!!! After Steve mentioned him in the others segment in a previous Dozen, I watched his Cal Cup race and he was screaming for attention THEN, after the show he put on in that race! Looking forward to this weeks dozen, there is going to be quite a shake up and good banter for the days to follow!

CHROME

SHARED BELIEF

HONOR CODE

SAMRAAT

TAPITURE

CANDY BOY

CAIRO PRINCE

INTENSE HOLIDAY

UNCLE SIGH

GENERAL AROD

STRONG MANDATE

BAYERN

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Pedigree Ann — Mon, 10 Mar 2014 14:52:21 GMT

Ranagulzion - While being loaded with Hyperion back in the pedigree is probably a good thing generally, it has become part of the breed-wide background. There are sprinting claimers with as much or more Hyperion in them, especially in California, where Alihai and Khaled left many sons and grandsons.

I prefer to look at the closer generations and the damside of Shared Belief is a bit iffy for the Derby distance. Fourth dam Rich and Rare II was champion 2yo filly, wins at 5-8f. Third dam Bad Seed was a tough mare, won or placed in 23 of 44 starts, SW at 4 on turf at a mile; her sire Stevward may have been a son of Nashua, but he never won past 6f. Second dam Sown raced only at 2, won 2 of 3 sprints; her sire Grenfall won up to 10f on turf in Ireland, while his best offspring Grenzen was a miler on the main track.

Sown's best offspring was the Flying Paster filly Key Phrase, a G1 sprint winner at 7f and dam of the stakes-class sprinters Yankee Gentleman and Key Deputy. And Common Hope, the dam of Shared Belief, won only a sprint, too. Her sire Storm Cat can sire distance horses, but in a fair fraction of his offspring, the Terlingua-Crimson Saint side of pedigree dominates.

Now Candy Ride was a very fast horse who stayed 10f in top company; he has already sired a Big 'Cap winner in Misrepresentation as well as Twirling Candy, who was beaten heads and necks in the Pacific Classic and Hollywood Gold Cup, so a Derby winner by him would not surprise.

The major question must be "will the distance limitations of the damline be overcome by the sire?" We won't know until he tries 10f.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Brontexx — Mon, 10 Mar 2014 12:54:56 GMT

One good thing about the KD futures wager is that their are 24 betting interests and the all others entry gets the money everytime.California Chrome could still be used by bettors that already have combinations in play at a lot better price than what they will get on the day of the race.Its all about building slowly and not putting all your eggs in one basket because the Florida Derby and the Louisiana Derby are the ONLY 100 point races that in the past were seen by the futures players before the betting period was complete.The way they have started the betting this year on a Thursday and closed it BEFORE the prep that week gives me the inclination to think they will close the last pool before either race is run.So the bet will be blind FOR ALL 100 point races.Inotherwords you wont see any of them run their last prep before the race.As far as Shared Belief if he dosent run in the Spiral where his stablemate Tammarando is going to run as reported, I think he will not run.Thinking any colt even Shared Belief can run in the KD using only one prep on AW like in the Blue Grass and then run his first on dirt in the Kentucky Derby is wishful thinking.Hate to say I told you so but Top Billing wasnt Shugs best hope.In the race that Commissioner beat him Hy Kodiak Warrior ran 3rd and was bet down to 2nd choice in the Tampa Bay Derby and ran up the track,unless Commissioner comes back and runs a gasser to me, Top Billing was 11-1 in the last futures the same as Honor Code based mostly on media hype.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Mon, 10 Mar 2014 07:49:26 GMT

sceptre : My bad, it was his 2nd race as a 3 yr old.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Mon, 10 Mar 2014 05:22:48 GMT

sceptre : The San Felipe field is probably the toughest california field he'll ever face. I don't see anyone else except Candy Boy and if CC stays healthy, the race will be over by the time they hit the home stretch. He won in 1:40 for 8.5Fs....how can you not be impressed by that ? This from a horse running his first race as a 3 yr old. You can be impressed by a horse' one race without declaring him the triple crown winner or even the Kentucky Derby winner like other people do. He may turn out to be a one hit wonder horse but looking at other california horses, not much stands in his way to win the Santa Anita Derby. Does he win the Kentucky Derby ? I wouldn't bet the farm on it. I like that he's the now horse, and I hope he wins the Santa Anita Derby by a mile, I want him to put on a show out here on the West Coast because that means he will take all the money in the Kentucky Derby, he'll be the overwhelming favorite and that means the odds of the other contenders will go up.

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

sceptre — Mon, 10 Mar 2014 00:49:20 GMT

I can understand why many regard California Chrome as a "now" horse and may highly rank him on their Derby list. I don't share that view. I question the quality of horses he's defeated-on the day he defeated them-, and was not in awe of his winning time-the dirt track was lightning for the San Felipe. For this horse to be as good as some believe, he must have made an ultra dramatic improvement from 2 to 3. I suppose it's possible, but highly unlikely. I'll stick with several other California 3 yr. olds for now-let's see how California Chrome competes against them-assuming he will?

re: Derby Dozen - March 3, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Windolin — Mon, 10 Mar 2014 00:30:04 GMT

I told you guys that California Chrome was in great physical shape leading up the race! Gotta love this...a 77 year old trainer who has not been on Derby trail but once with Swaps as a teenager...2nd fastest time in history and by a stallion with a $2800 stud fee.