Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 16:31:17 GMT

Jay Jay: You're a hard "nut" to crack but I don't give up easily ...still believe that you're learning but too proud to admit it on here ...see, your paying attention (LOL)

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 07:20:47 GMT

Ranagulzion: What did you teach me about the Florida Derby ? I asked who your pick is, I'm not sure how I was taught something lol. Good pick on Constitution btw. I think where you're getting confused is that you think I'm like you, that I care and obsessed about being right all the time (on a blog even)...unlike you, I don't need blogs to validate my handicapping angles. I post and read blogs to learn from knowledgeable commenters, and there's quite a few that I read but I can't honestly say you're one of them. I think my record on the preps this year speaks for itself :)

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 02:12:44 GMT

Jay Jay: I gave you handicapping lesson 101 regarding the Florida Derby ...hoping that you learned something ...go easy when tangling with yours truly :)

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Wed, 26 Mar 2014 04:44:25 GMT

Ranagulzion : You don't need to preach to me about honesty, and don't pretend that you've never done the same.

I sure would appreciate that if we're going to banter, that you stop refusing to answer my questions and ignore it because you can't find the answers to support your claims. I've asked you about Hyperion, Dreaming of Julia and all you do is ignore it because you really have no answer.

I also find it interesting that you end up picking my picks for the preps. First, with Hoppertunity, then Chitu, and now Spot. I haven't posted him because I'm not sure if he's actually entered in the Florida Derby. I was going to check this morning but didn't get a chance to.

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Tue, 25 Mar 2014 19:57:59 GMT

Jay Jay: I'll indulge you here because you've come clean, albeit under the 'gun' of archival evidence. Truth is, I really don't care about the ignoring of my posts ...what I do care about is comments from posters purporting to have read my posts while misrepresenting my ideas/remarks ...get it?

The banter is great fun and ...yes a little egotism is part of it too but lets be honest and differentiate differences of opinions from facts/factual statements/remarks.

Now to the Florida Derby: My firm selection is Wildcat Red ...I thought that was pretty clear ...however that colt has already qualified for the Kentucky Derby and has had two gut-wrenching battles with General a Rod, therefore depending on the primary objective of the connection i.e. whether they want to go all out for the Grade 1 status or allow the colt to regress with the Kentucky Derby as the main prize, could affect the outcome of the race. The same argument applies to General a Rod although he has less qualifying points. If both colts were to duke it out again I prefer Wildcat Red at the distance.

Constitution is coming into the race on the rise and desperate for qualifying points. In such a case he's the most dangerous horse since Todd Pletcher rarely loses two Derby preps in a row when he has good horses entered. I'd say Constitution is an exactor factor in here ...he'll either win the race or finish second. Does this mean that I'm selecting three horses to win? I can't help you if that's how your logic works buddy but that's my view of the race.

BTW Cairo Prince is in a SPOT of bother (pardon the pun ...Nick Zito) due to your beloved points system LOL. This renewal of the Florida Derby is a tough spot to be coming into off a break and if they scratch and go to the Wood Memorial he's going to run into the same 'collision'(or should I say 'Inclusion') that befell Honor Code. I hope he makes it into the Derby. Peace.

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Tue, 25 Mar 2014 01:50:45 GMT

Ranagulzion : You're right, I missed that. And you're right again, I tend to ignore much of your posts due to a lot of it are self glorification rather than horse related. So, can you tell me which one will win the Florida Derby ? So you guarantee a triple crown winner but for the Florida Derby, you picked 4 horses ? Pick one horse please, don't post your "way out" in case Wildcat Red doesn't win. Is Wildcat Red a sure win ?? Are you betting the farm on him ? Please post your answer BEFORE the Florida Derby...

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 20:31:30 GMT

El Kabong,

Again, great comments on the Spiral and the turf preps, and good pick. But this analysis didn't do you any favors last year with Java's War (I hated him as a synthetic Silky Sullivan). Still, I will keep your words in mind: I took Dullahan and WtDW as "underneath" possibilities but refused to consider them winners. In retrospect, given the track that year, you are right; they really did fire.

Age of Reason,

Thanks for the insightful comments about Gulfstream. I am on board with you there: I hope as many of the runners there get into the Derby so I can deprecate them, if not toss them.

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

sceptre — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 19:24:16 GMT

Pedigree Ann:

Your point about the shock wave therapy is accurate. Yes, it was included in the PETA video, but not "editorialized" by them, rather its mention and related "opinion" was uttered only by Blasi. So, what does this say about the "experienced" ?? assistant trainer (and sometimes trainer, when Asmussen is suspended) of such a major training outfit? What does this say about their knowledge or, rather, lack thereof? That's been one of my major gripes with most trainers. They present themselves as "experts" in the care of horses-no degree, many with less education than the average citizen, and they tend to receive their "experience" (education) on all things related to horses/horsemanship through others that were often as clueless as are they. These are the people caring for a thoroughbred racehorse-one that is exposed to hazards well beyond your normal, everyday horse. Due to the nature of thoroughbred training and racing, the horse requires a type of expertise far greater than what a typical trainer is equipped to offer...By the way; I alluded to this is my statements concerning Eight Belles-made prior to this most recent expose...As far as PETA, HSUS, etc.- I think their overall agenda is correct and righteous, but their spokespeople lack some expertise in matters of the racehorse/horseracing. Because of this they sometimes place too much emphasis on trivialities. These errors, however, should not blind us from their overall message-which is a correct one. Some may choose to ignore their opinions, but to ignore the hard evidence they also provide is simply foolish.

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 18:16:33 GMT

Jay Jay: Regarding Wildcat Red, I've posted much about his credentials. For instance, in Steve's Derby Dozen of March 3, 2014 I posted the following in response to a comment by Derbygal "derbygal 03 Mar 2014 4:04 PM : Good post. Wildcat Red, notwithstanding his high dosage index, can be any type of horse and has already qualified on points to make the Derby field. His omission from the Derby Dozen could leave Steve Haskin with egg all over his face when all is said and done. He's had some tough races (winning all but one) to put foundation into him and he's got stretch-out speed, gameness and the heart of a budding champion. His sire, D'Wildcat, although a crack sprinter is inbred to Northern Dancer and Secretariat within the first five generations which means that he could potentially throw an offspring with superstar qualities. On the dam side, the presence of staying horses like Miner's Mark, Flying Paster, Grey Dawn II and Herbager, all in the five cross pedigree matrix is cause to rethink this colts Derby-winning potential.

Wildcat Red has a propensity to win his races and I don't think that we've seen his best yet. The trainer can now comfortably plan his training strategy leading up to the first Saturday in May. This colt deserves to be in any top twelve IMO."

Sorry buddy but you've left me with no choice but to expose either your lack of comprehension of what you read or selective memory of my posts in a lame attempt at one-up-manship. Its a very good thing that all that I've posted on the blogs are retrievable.

Perhaps its time for me to give up on teaching you stuff because it appears that you now have an agenda to deliberately ignore or misrepresent my postings. Whenever I refer you to the instructive views of other respected posters, instead of valuing our shared knowledge of the game you denigrate my posts for not saying what they said (even though I've already posted similar ideas which you appear to ignore).

Regarding anointing a Triple Crown winner this year, I've done so with Social Inclusion. If and when he sweeps the series I don't expect to hear from you buddy. Before the Social Incluion humbling of Honor Code, I've tried to identify colts in the crop capable of sweeping the series and identified three, namely, Honor Code, Top Billing and Sared Belief. All I did was identify possibilties for discussion ...I did not anoint Honor Code. Do you remember reading such or did you not comprehend what you read? At this point I dot expect an honest answer from you but ...be careful now ...the archives can be a damning witness agaist defamatory postings (LOL).

Try to be honest when you choose to rumble with Ranagulzion or your folly will be exposed. Peace.

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bigtex — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 16:43:47 GMT

Mary

I would add to what you said re Chitu, big difference in his gallop out versus Midnight Hawk. MH was ready to shut it down with Chitu going right on with Commissioner who's supposed to run all day.

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 14:58:29 GMT

robinm, I respectfully and strongly disagree with you relative to Chitu's pedigree and perhaps his inability to get the 10 furlongs. His dam's pedigree is inundated with stamina top and bottom. By the way, Chitu's tremendous effort in the Sunland Derby was not that far off the track record.

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 14:12:09 GMT

Ranagulzion : Also, I didn't miss that you picked 4 horses for the Florida Derby, if that's not guessing, I don't know what is. You really should stop this act of desperation. Respect for knowledge is not gained by putting garbage out there just to look knowledgeable. Posting really good information and reasons for picking a horse is what gains respect, even if the horse loses.

Looking forward to the new dozen...

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Johnny — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 14:02:24 GMT

Gotta love Samraats one mile works.

This will be a hard horse to toss come Derby Day.

Especially if he wins the Wood..

Neither horse that won this weekend will be on my Derby tix's

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Pedigree Ann — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 11:47:51 GMT

Just a tidbit in reference to the PETA video: I have had electro-stimulation therapy for tension in a scarred muscle, with electrodes hanging all over me. It does not "hurt like hell"; in fact I generally fell asleep during it because I was worn out from the tension in that injured muscle. If the treatment "hurt like hell", I do not see how a TB would not respond with anger, thrashing, trying to rid itself of the painful electrodes (which is not that hard - I did it accidentally while lying still; they are only held in place by a gel). And it would certainly not allow a second treatment; horses have hooves and teeth and remember painful situations well, almost too well sometimes. They are not senseless lumps of muscle and bone.

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 06:05:24 GMT

I knew Chitu is a better horse than Midnight Hawk after seeing him in the San Felipe. I'm glad that he got the points, been waiting for him a long time and now I can move him up in place of Poker Player. Looking forward to the FD next week.

Ranagulzion : Dude, you're truly delusional lol. You can try and spin it as much as you want, the proof is in your record. Your record for failure in picking triple crown winners is still at 100%. I guess if you keep telling yourself you're good at this, you'll start believing yourself but most if not all of the readers here knows the score. I've asked you what proof do you have that you have this skill? You can't answer the question because you have none. You're so lost in your triple crown picking world that you forgot to tell KY that you also picked Honor Code to win the Triple Crown. I think there were two other horses you picked from the older blogs to win the Triple Crown, it's not surprising…like I said, flavors of the month. It's really sad if you ask me…

I like General A Rod in the Florida Derby now that Commissioner isn't in the race. I said before that Wildcat Red will not be a factor going longer because of D'Wildcat and I still don't believe so, but I did read an article here ( titled " Wildcar Red "Full of Himself," Trainer says " ) on BH and his trainer said he has Miner's Mark somewhere in his pedigree. And before you claim knowing this, I don't remember seeing you post anything about Miner's Mark in his pedigree. Just like everytime, you picked Wildcat Red because he won his last race...I also don't recall you picking him for the FOY. I think going longer, General A Rod will turn the tables on him specially with Rosario on him. I wish you luck in your blog bets on Wildcat Red, I don't believe you actually bet money, just betting on blogs.

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Racingfan — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 03:06:19 GMT

Well my original "derby dozen" has now lost 4 horses.. :-( Getting bummed we have lost some that looked really super but thankfully nothing serious so that they cannot return (if they don't get retired to stud...lol). Honor Code was my favorite on "looks" - wow I think he has a beautiful look about him. Cant wait til he returns. My Winstar Derby contest has now lost 5 of my 12 picks so I guess I won't be winning that contest - LOL. Guess I probably have to give up on Midnight Hawk now after his third consecutive second place... bummer.

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 02:29:15 GMT

robinm,

your candor was a breath of fresh air. Synthetics are a tough racket, especially the underneath, let alone the winner. The winners are still winners, that's what I keep in mind and that means something. When a horse puts it together, that says something. Good luck with your picks, I happen to like two dirt horses best so far, Intense Holiday and Cairo Prince, but we have a long way to go before the ink is dry. Just don't toss the good efforts on synthetic, but I'm an exotic player, tri and super. Thanks for the laugh and keeping it in perspective.

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

BelmontBarb — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 02:27:56 GMT

Good Evening Steve,

I hope you agree, after a week of Derby dismal it is certainly a relief reading everyones comments. It is unfortunate for Honor Code and Shug to be off the trail but my compliments go out to him for his quickness in recognition (of a some time overlooked injury)and decision in favor of Honor Code. It is exactly what many needed to note in defense of the talented, caring, trustworthy trainers and teams that should not be discredited as a result of anothers failures in the treatment and poor decision making at the expense of our horses. Honor Code will have a future and we will be looking forward to it.

also......

Looking forward to your upcoming "Derby Dozen" review and input ~

As the Spiral really took a spin here for Tamarando and the top of the wire seem to be tight but good effort and fine achievement for the three finishers here. CD is quite a different track and surprises surge, so not so secure on this being representative of another success story for We Miss Artie, Harry's Holiday and Coastline.

Cairo Prince is so impressive and his recent 1m (+) work was notable w/o stress; and Samraat (what can I say)fine and very fit. There seems to be no turbulence surrounding these (and a few others) and I like that sound of silence as we move along and through the finals before the Derby, always unexpecting and exciting along the trail.

Your thoughts make us think ~ Thanks Steve

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 02:24:04 GMT

robinm,

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 02:18:27 GMT

robinm, Chitu out of an AP Indy mare suspect to get 10 furlongs, pardon my grammar, "you gotta be kiddin me".

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Jersey Girl — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 01:39:01 GMT

Congrats to Chitu, Garcia and Baffert in the Sunland.

Windolin,

So glad there's plenty of Johnny V and Rosie ahead for all of us to enjoy - Looking forward to some "Wildcatting"!

Any idea who Rosie might be on for the Derby?

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Windolin — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 00:41:25 GMT

Well, that was an interesting race. I think someone on here mentioned to not overlook Chitu. Wish Commissioner had placed higher, but he did come from the back to take third. Midnight Hawk just did not have enough left to hold off Chitu, but I think he made a valiant effort. Per his pedigree he is an AP Indy grandson and is Storm Cat on top. Thankful a safe trip for all.

Steve, we are all waiting breathlessly to hear your thoughts and see you list. Good night all.

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 00:40:37 GMT

Age of Reason: I look forward to your post after the Wood Memorial and will gladly welcome you onto the bandwagon of Social Inclusion seeing that he's going to romps that Grade 1 prep, giving a reality check to all the NY pretenders.

Its sad to see Honor Code off the Derby trail with an injury but I'm glad that its not career-ending. He's gone the way of many AP Indys i.e. injured trying to make the Derby but should develop to be a powerful 4YO if they give him adequate time off. I like this colt a lot.

KY Vet: You're a comical poster on here but please try to avoid propogandizing my contribution because before you became a newbie on these blogs I've been calling out star performers prior to their break-out performances on the Triple Crown trail. For example, I trumpeted out California Chrome's come-out party in the San Felipe before he ascended to the #1 spot on Steve's Derby Dozen, quite similar to what I did with Eskendereya in 2010 before his awe-inspiring disappearing acts in the FOY and Wood Memorial that year (check Steve's Derby Dozen archives February 16, 2010 -my post Feby 19, 2010 12:53 AM).

In recent years I've only called 3 horses Triple Crown winners: Eskendereya in 2010, Union Rags in 2012 and Social Inclusion this year of our Lord 2014 (36 years since Affirmed swept the 1978 series) I do not apologize for the previous two calls as they were quite reasonable against all the variables that we're playing with...and as you should know, sometimes the third attempt hits bulls eye.

Jay Jay: Picking horses in any race is guess work according to your perspective, since even when we know the jockey and the competiion there are many variables still unknown, for example, whether the horse will enter the starting gates or leave the starting gates, miss the break, fall to his knees or be knocked about like a pin-ball, suffer interference, suffer adversely from jockey's tactics etc. Its banking sufficiently on the superiority of the horses talent and the astuteness of the connections to have the horse ready to succeed amidst the variables that makes the game so exhilarating my firend. Spoting talent, evaluating that talent against the compettion in terms of known performance, form and scope for improvement based upon pedigree and distance, assuming soundness, is not guess work ...it is called handicapping. I shouldn't have to convince you, unless you are really slow to grasp, that some of us can make great calls with less information about many of the variables as well as evaluate scenarios quicker than others ...what do you call such people? Ah well ...ask Age of Reason after the Wood Memorial. BTW who's your early fancy for the Florida Derby? Right now I like Wildcat Red but I have great regard for Constition and of course General a Rod. Nick Zito's horse Spot is also going to make things very interesting at Gulfstream ...no guessing now buddy:)

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 00:18:04 GMT

El Kabong

I thought they might take Global Strike back like they did Commissioner and make a strong run at it but I don't think he was ready for this kind of race yet, and might not be good enough anyway. I just wasn't sure how Commissioner would do but they have found his style now and I like it. I think he is a deep closer and a good one. I don't like either of the top two in the race for 10f. Thanks for your post. Here's my new Derby Dozen, with the extra apple fritter. It's going to really get exciting now.

1. Hoppertunity

2. Intense Holiday

3. Social Inclusion

4. Bayern

5. Samraat

6. Spot

7. Commissioner

8. We Miss Artie

9. Cairo Prince

10. Candy Boy

11. California Chrome

12. Uncle Sigh

13. Wildcat Red

re: Derby Dozen - March 17, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

robinm — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 00:12:10 GMT

El Kabong; my prejudices are definitely showing. I am a confirmed "dirt" handicapper and can't pick them worth a darn on synthetics.