Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

GiddyUpBoyWhoa — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 19:16:15 GMT

Will Cairo Prince fall completely off the list? stay tuned

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bigtex — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 18:00:31 GMT

Robinm

This is all I've seen…Among the possible starters for the Arkansas Derby are Ride On Curlin, Strong Mandate, Bayern, Commissioner, and Conquest Titan.

Dr D

Thank you. I glean so much from you and the rest it's a rather lopsided affair!

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 17:39:01 GMT

I admit that VIT's pedigree is up in the air, although there is some stamina in his female line. It did look like he was blowing in the winner's circle, but I just read that according to the Ramseys, he was not tired after the race.

VIT does not necessarily need to have the lead. He took the lead in the La. Derby because Rise Up was bumped at the break and was therefore out of contention.

Vicar's In Trouble will hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. He's never been off the board in any of his races.

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 17:16:17 GMT

robinm and Big Tex, I must agree with you both. Vicar's In Trouble is one of my favorite horses, but it did look like he was blowing pretty hard in the winner's circle. That is very concerning to me.

Constitution, I agree with you robinm, there is a question mark as to distance. Both of these horses are lovely talented foals, but their pedigrees are up in the air.

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

sceptre — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 15:42:02 GMT

Coldfacts:

So I guess I'll have to (attempt) to spell it out. You "...see NO reason why Henny Hughes cannot do likewise..." -because you fail to grasp that you should be comparing their (Raise A Native and Henny Hughes') stud careers and not their racing careers. While Henny Hughes has, as yet, less numbers (than Raise A Native) it's sufficiently large to strongly suggest that he is a dominant NON-stamina influence-whereas this cannot be said of Raise A Native. Try to grasp what is meant by the phrase-Dominant Non-Stamina Influence. What are its ramifications? Types such as these very rarely, if ever, sire offspring capable of winning "classic" distance races-despite the fact that they received, during their careers, a host of distance oriented mates. But it could be a bit too early to categorize Henny Hughes as such-likely it isn't-, and it is somewhat uncommon for a stallion to transmit that degree of dominance. Henny Hughes, however, appears to fit this description (when reviewing his record at stud)-and nevertheless, clearly, the record of a Raise A Native should not be cited as a reason for optimism to suggest that Henny Hughes (when bred to a stamina-laden mare) could well sire a classic distance winning offspring. No doubt, Coldfacts, even this somewhat expanded explanation will allude you-but it's not meant for your ears anyway.

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

lunar spook — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 14:49:39 GMT

I tried to tell all the cairo prince fans all week his dosage index is way too high for a derby contender , what happened ? he was a badly beaten 4th , next horse to leave alone is vicars in trouble , his index is 5.00 ,so vicars in trouble come derby time for sure !

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 13:55:23 GMT

Bigtex

I appreciate all of your observations and opinions, and I remember that a year or two ago you gave me a good physicality observation that helped me.

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 13:15:51 GMT

Sceptre,

As usual I can always rely on you to keep me in line in the most emphatic manner. I do believe, as has been the case on many occasions that you have missed the theme of the submission.

“In comparing Henny Hughes to Raise A Native you dwell on their racing careers instead of focusing in on their stud careers-far more important to this analysis”

Below is the closing paragraph of the relevant post.

“If the extremely fast Raise A Native was capable of siring two champion routers, I see no reason why the brilliantly fast Henny Hughes cannot do likewise with the assistance of A P Indy and others.”

Surely the above indicates that I was not comparing their stud careers but rather their exceptional speed. I also highlighted in earlier paragraphs, what I assessed to be the importance of the stamina laden dam line of Majestic Price and Alydar in relation to their ability to rout.

Raise A Native stud career is long over and that of Henny Hughes is still a work in progress. I could never think of comparing their exploits in this category even in my usual deficient state of mind.

The combination of a stallion with speed and a stamina laded dam, has the possibility of producing a effective routers who might initially appear to be stamina challenged.

In retrospect a more appropriate comparison would have been Elusive Quality or Mr. Prospector. I doubt either were expected to sire Derby winners.

As usual your insightful inputs are always appreciated despite their intents to be dismissive.

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bigtex — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 06:15:31 GMT

Windolin

You completely misunderstand my comments regarding VICAR'S IN TROUBLE. I'm a big fan of the horse. My comment regarding Rosie looking big on him was said in light humor because she had commented on him being a tiny horse. I glean valuable information from our family of bloggers on here and I like to share observations because I watch the horses in great detail and maybe an observation from me might help someone as well. VIT was blowing hard in the winner's circle and it was just an observation and no offense was meant. I think he has very good speed and for a little guy he looks like he has a very powerful back end (another observation). For sure, to be clear, I'm concerned about his staying power to win 10f. Rosie will have choices on whom to ride, if I were the Ramseys, I'd put Borel on VIT and see if they could pull off a "sit back and scrape the paint" run in the Derby. Totally agree with your comments on McLaughlin and his handling of Cairo Prince. I don't think his points are going to get him in! Sad.

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

robinm — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 02:38:20 GMT

correction to my last comment; I believe Vicar's in Trouble's win was the LA Derby. The Ark is still a week away? I don't think I've heard who is headed that way. Maybe someone can fill me in. thanks!

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

robinm — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 02:27:47 GMT

Mary; I don't see Constitution as a 10-furlong horse either, though I'm not at all worried about the line-breeding. I just have my doubts a Tapit can get 10 furlongs unless the dam has a really strong pedigree for distance, which I don't see, looking at Constitution's pedigree. What I do like about this colt is, that despite his inexperience, he came through a small hole on the rail, showing guts, which he'll need in a 20-horse field. He also had a very nice gallop out, indicating there is more there than his pedigree would suggest.

On the other hand, Vicar's in Trouble looked stretched to his limit at the wire in the Ark. Derby. I really didn't like the way he switched back to his left lead in deep stretch. Like, Constitution, I question VIT's sire to produce a distance horse, though his dam does have a stronger pedigree for stamina.

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Windolin — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 01:35:50 GMT

In reference to the comment that Rosie looked big on Vicars in Trouble, well he is a smaller horse as compared to the others that racing out there now. Is there a rule somewhere that a horse has to be 17H to be a winner? Not meaning to sound flip, but I do not understand why some cannot give credit where credit is due if the horse ran well or won, even though it was not your pick? As to his blowing hard after the race, please note that the Ramsey's posted on his Facebook page that he was not tired after the race and that he ate well. They even posted a video of him this morning of him playing with someone's hat. He looked bright and happy. Please pardon me Steve, I am not trying to be ugly, but sometimes it just bothers me when I read comments about how weak this field is or no depth or no talent and on and on. I look at it this way, of the thousands of Thoroughbreds that are born each year, only a very small percentage make it to this level...to even be in contention to run in the Derby. I try so very hard not to ever find fault with the horse. As every good rider will tell you, if the horse makes a mistake it is usually the fault of the rider or the trainer. I am in this for the love of the horse and of the sport. Speaking of love of the horse, HAPPY BIRTHDAY, SECRETARIAT!

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Sail On — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 01:22:43 GMT

@Mary, yes, we are both sweet on Vicar;s In trouble, and for good reason. I hope he is fully recovered from the abscess on his hoof, and hope he comes out of this race fit and sound.

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

sceptre — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 01:17:55 GMT

Coldfacts:

Once again you miss the more relevant FACTS. In comparing Henny Hughes to Raise A Native you dwell on their racing careers instead of focusing in on their stud careers-far more important to this analysis. Fact is, Henny Hughes has proven to be a dominant speed influence/ and a dominant non-stamina influence. This cannot be said of Raise A Native. Must I explain this further, or have you caught the hint?

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

KY VET — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 00:45:08 GMT

ok...i will stipulate to the objection the plane story isnt horseracing.....but just watched a news conference about the great job everyone is doing looking for the plane.......does anyone know how many satellites are up obove us?......you wouldnt believe if i told you......but our greatest minds are on the job........its obvious where the plane is.......it's sitting right next to the WMD's!!!!!!

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

BelmontBarb — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 00:34:47 GMT

A Commentary on "Simmering Saturday"

Hello Steve ~

I am sure you are quite busy right now in searching and researching support for the Derby Dozen (and (I) cannot wait to see the new info and/or changes and choices and your input)but I wonder if you agree (and anyone else) that what should have been a "simmering" Saturday racing meet was a bit shy of excitement and slow to impress (and that includes Dubai). This is a problem that goes much deeper than the race day card and I get the feeling that everyone wants the answer to "whose it gonna be!" because of the lack luster perfomances. Watching and reviewing the past several and including Saturday's races did not seem much different than looking at a race on any given day. Although the Gulfstream handle was a record day I can not find a reason to make noteworthy any particular race other than the purse or the points. Hey Leroy did give a little boost (my mom had this one because of his name) and his bolting consumption of his opponents showed good appetite. And, congrats to Julie and Vicar (who had a really nice day and to all the others that crossed the line with applause, safe and sound). I am surely happy for those who had a good day in winnings but disappointed in results and surprised by responses of those in the industry that just are not getting the picture but want to get to the Derby. We all want to get there for the glory of it; and the prestige and the purse and the bet and all else that comes along with it - It's a BIG package and the rewards and benefits are tremendous along with an unforgettable ride....the "Road to the Triple Crown" compares to nothing else for all involved.

Above all, we are desparately in need of a solid, sound and strong superstar that can take on the the trail and the crowds and leave a mark once again in the thoroughbred industry(too lengthy to discuss here at this time but certainly needs to be).

As I read here today, disappointment and anxiety reveals itself - everyone not quite sure who to follow and hoping that the answer comes from a source, a fact or just plain luck. Cairo Prince failure to support his odds and giving way to Constitution was a defeat for all including McLaughlin and Saez but still deserves credit for his effort. He's a fine colt with a fine future. And, speaking of "Futures", it is a reality that for the past several years the choice has been "ALL" in the final as it lacks the "one".

We are all "hangin" here.........

Thanks to you Steve - you not only give us hope but support to stay in it and never give up...

And, thank you again (and thank you all) for allowing me to share my opinion

because "I Love this Game"

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 21:53:55 GMT

Steve,

Nice call on the Vicar. I guess he had an abscess detected after the Risen. That explains his poor works, his ship to Florida in between the Risen and the FG Derby, and his improved run yesterday. I haven't bought into his ability to run 10F's, but you make a good case. Certainly if he's feeling well, he'll have to be considered on exotics. If he can run that well on a less than perfect workout tab, we'll have to watch how he trains up to the Derby. Rosie did ride smart going to the lead, I felt there was no closing on that stretch yesterday, the front end was doing quite well all day, and she went right to it despite all the front speed in that race. She's sharp that Rosie. Albano had a terrible race. Bad post, went wide and took a punch in the stomach from a NY bum. He will still make the Derby though and that is sweet justice for Larry. I have a feeling he was a little red eared after that race. That's when you need Neumeirer and a mic. :)

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

It aint easy being good! — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 18:24:52 GMT

At this point it seems logical that its California Chrome and everyone else. Sometimes its just that easy. Some people done like the point system I love it. Full fields and it makes these trainers think logical. You want to run your horse and give him 60 days off it might end up biting you in the end. Now what is the prince going to do with no points? I would take the keeland route like Palice Malice did. With such a long layoff 3 weeks shouldnt effect him. He needs to be in the derby since he is the only horse that has the right running style. At this point I feel like every horse wants the lead and is winning on the lead. CC is faster then any other horse breaking from the gate. Catch him if you can! Kid Cruz is a sleeper! I think the derby winner might finally come out of the wood! I think you will see some wow performances next week! Cant wait!

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bigtex — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 17:54:05 GMT

At this point, I can't think of a horse that can beat these on May 3:

California Chrome - Isn't showing any signs of regressing with a blazing 46 & change last work!

Hoppertunity - Last work was scary good!

Constitution - Each of his performances has been very impressive!

Ring Weekend - I don't think his TB Derby was a fluke and he has G. Motion and can go the distance.

Commissioner - He's begging for 1 ¼

Candy Boy - His works have been blazing!

Cairo Prince - I think it should've been more important to run in the FOY & FL Derby aiming for the best possible result on May 3 than whine about giving up a few pounds in FOY and feeling slighted by the points system but this horse can win the DERBY.

Chitu - He gave nothing to Candy Boy while carrying the pace in the Lewis and much the best in Sunland (save Commissioner).

Hoping to see big performances from:

Social Inclusion

Samraat

Uncle Sigh

Strong Mandate

Tapiture

Bayern

Conquest Titan

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bigtex — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 17:10:53 GMT

Aside from the upcoming Wood, AR Derby & SA Derby this is my most highly anticipated Dozen coming from you, Steve!

Where are we going to see BAYERN? SA Derby would be a big mistake IMO.

SOCIAL INCLUSION is not going to get a free pass in the WOOD. He's going to have to earn it so if he wins in impressive fashion he'll be in top 3 for me.

VICAR'S IN TROUBLE was blowing pretty heavy after his race. Rosie actually looked big on him!

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Johnny — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 17:07:02 GMT

Not a good day at Gulfstream yesterday gambling wise.

Took it on the chin.

My 2 cents regarding the Fl Derby.

I wound up betting Cairo Prince in a ex box with Wildcat,Constitution,General A and Spot.

I lost.

I wanted Cairo Price to win yesterday reason is he might of been the favorite come Derby day and he was a toss for me.

I thought the track was fair yesterday and it was tuned down a couple of closers actually won the 1st couple of races.

As far as betting any of these horses to win the Derby none of them will be a win bet for me..

Wildcat Red is Schakelford wont get the 1 1/4 but wont quit either.

Constitution Apollo curse and I don't bet Pletcher horses to win the Derby he will be in my exoctics though..

General A rod nice horse but I don't believe a Derby winner..

As of know my top 3 are

California Chrome 46.2 work yesterday.

Candy Boy still sticking by the Stevens comments.

Samraat love the mile works.

May be the biggest overlay in the Derby..

I may change my mind..

Good luck to all..

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

KY VET — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 17:06:42 GMT

a little off topic.......... but, really? They can't find the plane still? Millions and millions of dollars, best technology in the world? But NO

common sense.........really? Its not out in the middle of nowhere? Its just ocean trash? Really? Maybe they shouldve asked "why would it fly all the way out here?" No destination........Really? They couldnt figure out that it made no sense? Why would it fly for hours and crash way out in the middle of nowhere? Really? It really IS embarrassing!

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Windolin — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 17:02:38 GMT

Steve, for what it is worth, here is my analysis of this weekend’s races and my thoughts are based on a perspective from a lifelong horse owner.

Vicar’s in Trouble - I picked this colt to do well in the Louisiana Derby along with Intense Holiday. Rosie is in love with this horse and will, if reports are true, be riding him in the Derby. There is a lot to be said I think for a horse to carry the same jockey for every race and especially if that jockey is involved in the horse’s workouts. I do not know if anyone else picked up on this or not, but Rose rides very aerodynamically. Her seat reduces wind resistance. The other thing I like is the Ramsey racing team. Mr. Ramsey is very hands on in the training of his horses. I love his approach to breeding horses and how they are trained and how quickly he will fire a jockey who does not ride his horses the way he thinks they should be ridden. I also like this colt's pedigree other than the Icecapade. He is not deeply in bred to Native Dancer and he has top and bottom (as we say in my world) breeding going back to Secretariat and Affirmed and another line back to Bold Ruler on the bottom. He lead the entire way and while Rosie was getting on him at the end, he was pulling away from with either a tiring Intense Holiday or an Intense Holiday that was being hand ridden in the stretch (more on this below).

Intense Holiday - Here is another colt that is not inbred through 5 generations and I like his pedigree, goes back to Secretariat, Affirmed, Bold Forbes with a taste of Native Dancer and I have always like the Unbridled line horses. I am not able to play good quality video on my computer and therefore cannot say for sure, but it appeared that Mike Smith was not using his whip on Intense Holiday in the stretch., though I may wrong about that. If I am right, it could be that Mike Smith eased off per instructions. He has the points to be in the Derby with this 2nd place and hopefully came out of this race well.

Commanding Curve - I just gotta love a colt that comes from the back after being “pinched “ and make it past the pack and to be closing strong to take third. I absolutely love this colt’s pedigree and I think his run shows he has speed and endurance. Inbreeding has its benefits if it brings balance to a horse’s pedigree and I think that this colt has a nicely balanced pedigree. I so hope he gets in another race and can collect the points to squeak in the Derby. If not, then I certainly hope he will be prepped for the Preakness or the Belmont.

Constitution - I had hopes all along that this colt would hit the board. He is a little too deeply inbred to Native Dancer for my tastes, but he does have two lines back to Seattle Slew and two lines back to Secretariat. Hopefully this will serve him well in the Derby. I think he dispels the thought that Tapit only produces “milers”. I watched him trot out past the wire and must say that this colt has a beautiful hip. It is long and deep and wide. Propulsion comes from the rear end and that strong hip might be just what it takes for him to hit the board in the Derby. He also seems to be a confident horse that wants the win. Not every young horse would slide through that opening he had on the rail. That I think is not only to be credited to the colt, but also Castellano.

Wildcat Red - what can I say, I love this colt. He will most likely be in the Derby and I so appreciate the comment from his trainer that it will be dependent on how he came out of this race. If he comes out well and he can be back up on toes for the Derby, I do think he will be in contention. This colt clearly loves to run and fights to win and has I think proven he can go the distance.

I think that Cairo Prince’s performance lies solely at the feet of his trainer and or owners. Do not get me wrong, I think McLaughlin is a good trainer, but why would he keep this colt out of a race for almost two months? I also found Mr. McLaughlin’s comments about the colt not needing experience. These are young horses and they learn from being tested…sloppy tracks, being pinched, having to fight for the win, getting dirt in their face and losing. I just do not get the reasoning that some of these horses have been held back from racing. Do horses that are only raced a time or two win the Derby? Can they go on to try for the Triple Crown?

As to Toast of New York, we will have to see what toll the trip to and from Dubai takes out of him. Can he be conditioned for another race in time to win it?

Another comment I have is in regard to a comment from someone that they are not breeding race horses like they used to. I say “thank goodness”. I so hope that we are moving away from these horses that are so deeply inbred to Northern Dancer.

And finally, Winchell is not pulling Tapiture from Assmussen which is of course his decision and his right. However, if Tapiture were my horse and pulling him might well cost a chance at the Derby, you can believe I would be keeping a very close eye on my horse 24/7 even if it meant sending someone from my barn to stay with the colt around the clock. If for no other reason than you never know when some kook will have sabotage in mind and might try to hurt this colt so as to give credence to the charges that have been brought against to Assmussen. Sad to say, but that is the kind of world we live in today.

The unfortunate death of the young man who had worked for Assmussen just brings more negative press to the scandal, whether it was related or not.

My deepest sympathies to his family and loved ones. There is no loss greater than that of a child.

Sympathy also to the owners of Mars who died on the track in Dubai.

Sorry this is so long and you might very well deservedly tell me to condense it down in the future.

I just had a lot of thoughts spinning in my mind after reading all the comments after the races yesterday and just felt the need to express mine.

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bigtex — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 17:02:27 GMT

Did anyone see HOPPERTUNITY'S first work back 5f 1:01.20 with the GIGANTIC gallop out???

Considering CAIRO PRINCE'S layoff and the top 3 of FL DERBY having IMO a fitness advantage going in, he performed really well. He's going to move forward but enough to win the DERBY? I'm skeptical but it's not like there aren't precedents from past DERBY winners right? I'd love feedback on this. I'll keep CP in my top 6 and hope his confidence wasn't undercut. Don't like the position in which MCLAUGHLIN has put him.

A brilliant ride by Castellano on CONSTITUTION! It looked as if he had to work pretty hard on the horse to get him settled, which he did, and THEN on the far turn, Velasquez takes a look back riding WILDCAT RED and after turning back around, CASTELLANO pushed the button on CONSTITUTION to sneak through on the rail. What kind of horse is CONSTITUTION??? He's a top 6 now for me and, I think, still developing.

I can only take away INTENSE HOLIDAY and VICAR'S IN TROUBLE from that race moving forward but they'll be ranked in the 6 - 12 tier for now. I really thought IN TROUBLE was going to run big.

PALACE MALICE was awesome and so was UNTAPABLE!

re: Derby Dozen - March 24, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

KY VET — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 16:53:37 GMT

Cuba.........one word........decaf................