Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Tue, 08 Apr 2014 03:12:20 GMT

mz : I guess that means we're evenly matched hehe. I'll start paying more attention to the top horses in Australia. Lately, I've been lucky playing the races over there than in the US, once I get used to their jockeys, it seems easier to pick horses. I hit a $2 P3 (last 3 Australia C races) last night with a $6 investment (1x1x3).

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Tue, 08 Apr 2014 03:03:58 GMT

Jay Jay: The archives show that 03 April 2014 12:19 you posted "Wood Memorial : Samraat and Wicked Strong with Uncle Sigh, Schivarelli and Harpoon for my .20 superfecta."

Samraat has always been your #1 horse yet you say that you picked Wicked Strong to win the Wood? Enough said about that ...obviously you're trying hard not to look like a fool and projecting your own sensibilities on yours truly ...can't take you seriosly.

I'm hoping that entry to the Derby turns out like last year, rendering the points system redundant so that Social Inclusion gets in. If it doesn't happen I'll reserve my comments until after the Preakness. Peace.

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 21:38:56 GMT

Dr Drunkinbum: You're good (LOL) ...so good that KY Vet is allowing you to have a "walkover" in the comedy derby.

California Chrome however is no joke ...the deserved favourite indeed heading into Louisville ...he's my second choice. Keep to humor coming my friend.

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Saratoga AJ — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 21:28:50 GMT

It seems the preps at Gulfstream and Santa Anita always favor the front runners and thus can be misleading.

One of the reasons Gulfstream and Santa Anita favor speed and front runners...the stretch run for both tracks are quite a bit shorter (990') than any of the major tracks in the country. Compare that to CD. Big A. Saratoga, Belmot...all 1200' or more. That's a football field longer. (The longest stretch of all majot tracks is Fair Grounds....well over 1300' I believe).

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Sam Santschi — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 20:46:13 GMT

BigTex and Trackjack: The Jedi, Christian Helmers is one of the handicappers on Horseplayers on the Esquire network. Steve Haskin did a recent post on the show, which is hilarious, informative and most of all, fun to watch. Hopefully, Team Rotondo gets on TV next!

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 20:17:16 GMT

‘California Chrome is by far the best 3 year old in the country”

The above is an example of an extreme statement that should be avoided in spite the great enthusiasm for the colt. The last time I checked Shared Belief was not retired. He was and probably is still considered the most talented 3YO in the country. He is undefeated similar to Constitution who exited an allowance race to win a G1 against the best in FL.

California Chrome was unplaced in his first G1 effort and has been beaten by three different horses to date. He has developed into a very talented colt that has dominated his California counterparts. Why should anyone think he is superior to the unknown quantity Constitution who possesses a superior record when their first three races are compared.

He is yet to defeat the top horses from others parts of the country and they are not exactly chopped liver. They will be meeting at neutral venue for the Derby where advantages and disadvantages are unknown. The CD surface and the distance of the Derby are and will always remain equalizers. Just ask Holy Bull, Bellamy Road and Point Given to name a few.

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

trackjack — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 18:52:06 GMT

Bigtex--I saw the "Jedi" handicapper on NBCSports. Putting CC on top, he threw out Hoppertunity from his top 3 so as to make a big score. At least he went on national TV to explain his "Intuition".

My intuition is NBC should show us more of the horses than the talking heads. They did a good job from NY in the paddock and on the track showing us the horses, i.e. Social Inclusion's lathering up and bucking antics with Jerry Bailey's comments. After the Wood they had a lot of time and did a good job with the Gary Stevens story but why couldn't the producers tie in his front running ride on Fashion Plate in the Grade 1 SA Oaks run earlier on the card? There are other major races on these cards but NBC ignores them. We then got only paltry shots of the SA Derby horses after the jocks were up in the paddock, very brief, as they were going to the track. They had the time to show us the competitors, but we mainly saw fluff and talking heads. They did do a good job, though when they were out on the track.

Call me old-school but if I'm not at the track, I want to see the horses.

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

mz — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 17:51:44 GMT

Jayjay: ACK!!! Fiorente is retired!! Now I gotta review my Aussie horses again!!!

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Smoking Baby — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 17:09:57 GMT

Curlin 1:53.46. You make a good point. My enthusiasm for California Chrome is kept somewhat in check by remembering how impressive Brother Derek looked in his pre-Derby preps a few years back. When it came to Churchill and Pimlico it became painfully evident that he lacked the class required to win a classic. Sidney's Candy was also impressive before the Derby and Lava Man's efforts outside California have been well documented.

I do think California Chrome is the horse to beat but as you said, he still needs to do it at Churchill on the big day.

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 16:53:43 GMT

Ranagulzion : I have replied to your nonsense with something that made sense but every time I do, you go on and ignore it. Go ahead and “shame” me lol, I can’t wait to see the quote where I said CP wasn’t good enough for the Derby. Keep in mind, he was high on my list prior to the Florida Derby so one with a brain would read that as I have hopes for him in the Derby. You notice he’s no longer in my list as of this dozen, because of two things, I don’t think he’s good enough for the Derby after watching him run in the FD, and he’s probably not going to make the field anyway. If you’re asking me about the points system in general, then yes, if a horse does not make the points, they are not good enough for the Derby. This is your way of avoiding to answer my questions, if would be much easier if you just provide information on why you think the points system is a flaw. I’ve provided counter arguments to your whining and then you avoid responding or spin your way out of it with nonsense. I think everyone here has seen your replies and the ones that replied about the “debate” supported the points system.

You really need to stop whining about the points system and leave it to the horses and their connections to get to the Derby. You’re obviously lost in your own world, you try so desperate to get others to support your claims but so far NO ONE has come forward. I would prefer if there are others who actually share your opinion, at least at least they’ll be smarter in responding with valid information instead of you, who avoids answering my questions and just go on and on and on about your whining. I’m declaring this “debate” over and claiming the win since you have not posted anything credible to support the “flaw” of the points system. I provided information to counter your claims even though I didn’t need to as I’m not the one whining about the flaw. It the last 3 Derby Dozen articles, I’ve asked repeatedly for your proofs and you have provided nothing…nothing…and nothing. Things you should take away from this debate, if you’re going to guarantee something, give at least some information on why you are so sure about it. Getting all giddy and excited about one race is not enough, we see those types of horses year in and year out… the Uncle Mo’s, the Union Rags, the Quality Roads. Learn to watch the races, understand how the horse ran and who he beat, the type of race etc, etc, etc. Keep in mind that when you guarantee a win, you are ignoring other variables that are totally unpredictable. How the horse gets out of the gate, trouble in the race, the jockey making the wrong move or decision on where to place the horse, if the horse takes to the track and sometimes, believe it or not, the horse may decide he/she is not going to run that day. If you keep these things in mind instead of getting all hyped up, more likely than not, you won’t end up looking like a fool.

Again, you ignored my question, instead you glorify SI without talking much about how he will make the Derby. To remind you (again), to win the Triple Crown, a horse must RUN and win 3 races, they are the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont. Winning one of those races does NOT mean you win the Triple Crown.

We can concentrate on your pick of SI as the triple crown winner, I’ll post the question again in capital letters, doesn’t mean I’m screaming, I just want to make sure you see and read it : WHAT ARE THE PLANS TO GET SOCIAL INCLUSION IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY ?

Here’s my prediction of your answer : He won’t get in because of the flawed points system… lol

My point about Wicked Strong is that I picked him and you didn't :)

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Carlos in Cali — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 16:17:34 GMT

If California Chrome breaks with the field there's no one that can outrun him to the wire...

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bigtex — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 15:27:41 GMT

Steve

You may need to be for California Chrome what Bill Nack was to Secretariat! "I fell asleep beside a tree outside his barn.....the fittest I have ever seen a horse!"

And is now the time to start wearing a headband and eating algae & brain food to become a handicapper Jedi??? Anyone see that guy on NBC Sports pre race?

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Johnny — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 15:25:12 GMT

I see Tapiture has a new Jock for the Arkansas Derby Joel Rosario.

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Curlin 1:53.46 — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 15:19:41 GMT

I will only be convinced with California Chrome if he can prove he can do it on the track at Churchill Downs. Small fields at Santa Anita he's been running against, against a very big field on an unknown surface on the first Saturday in May is a huge difference.

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

TnT — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 14:38:36 GMT

Ranagulzion - I cannot see how the points system is to blame for SI not making it, SI would of not made it under the old system either, he would actually be much lower down the list.

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

TnT — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 14:32:39 GMT

If last weekend was confusing, this one was Crystal Clear. California Chrome is by far the best 3 year old in the country, also was good he see him bumped around a little, and not be bothered by it.

Wicked Strong was also impressive, and a pretty fast in the wood, and Samratt looks a good bet to hit the board, all heart.

Only thing that beats CC is maybe a wet track or the one hole. Will be interesting to see what Baffert does with Midnight hawk, he is on the fence right now as the owner has doubts he's a 10F horse, but I think once he goes, some race day tactics will come into play, Baffert may have 4 starters after missing out last year.

Hopportunity sure moves up on a wet track, i dont think he was opened up on Saturday. If I do try to beat CC he will be the one, once the rain falls.

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

spooky mulder — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 14:22:50 GMT

Another impressive performance by CC. He's definitely #1 on my list. I don't think he'll have any issues going 1 1/4, and I believe he can be rated 3-5 lengths off the leader and still be fine. He needs to break better in the Derby though, that's the one thing that concerns me.

It was refreshing to see a closer like Wicked Strong come through and win a major prep race. I'm a fan of Jerkins, so I wish them well. As for Social Inclusion, he has shown that he is a very talented colt, but I sincerely hope he doesn't have enough points to get into the Derby. I'm not confident that he can get the extra 1/8 of a mile, plus I don't feel that he is mature enough to handle 100,000+ screaming fans. He was nervous and a little washed out for the Wood, so I don't think he'll suddenly be calm in front of such a raucous crowd.

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 13:44:03 GMT

Mary: Hardly anybody thought that Secretariat after his Wood memorial performance would become an immortal. That's my point. Social Inclusion also had a legitimate excuse ...an inexperienced colt that quite evidently expended a lot of nervous energy and sweating up profusely just before the race ...part of his education. Personally I think that he should progress significatly off his Wood effort and eagerly await his next start ...heaven help the competition.

Jay Jay: What a smart fellow you are ...so you said Cairo Prince wasn't good enough to get the points but you're not saying he isn't good enough to be in Louisville on the fist Saturday in May? ...now you're only critical of trainer Karian Mclaughlin?

I'll tell you this much: you are trying desperately to spin your way out of talking/posting nonsense ...and don't test me now because archival evidence will once again publicly expose your folly/confusion. In a previous post you most certainly said that (I'm paraphrasing now but if you persist/take the bait I'll quote you, to your shame) if a horse doesn't get the points he's not good enough or doesn't deserve to be in the Derby. You are the one who is desperately changing your tune to save face buddy and I double dare you to prove otherwise.

Let me put this to you about Social Inclusion and the Triple Crown. This colt is in my view a very special talent. I still believe that he's capable of winning the Triple Crown and he remains my anointed one to break the 36 years drought. However, should he become a Derby casualty of your favoured points system and then go on to win both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes ...think now (really seriously) ...how much of a future would your points system have for thwarting a much longed for Triple Crown winner. Think on these things my friend.

Wicked Strong was highly regarded by yours truly early on but after two lack lustre performances, particularly in the FOY, I gave up on him. If you wish I can retrieve my comments ...they are there in the 'dreaded' archives (LOL). Peace.

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 12:50:28 GMT

California Chrome broke his maiden in his second career start and I believe Secretariat did also. CC has ten career races prior to The Derby and Secretariat was about the same number. The biggest difference is that CC wowed us with a big performance in his final prep while Secretariat finished third in the Wood. Yes, I am comparing Cali Chrome to Secretariat but I'm not about to say that he is as good as Secretariat, but is it within the realm of possiblity? Even to be close might give him a Triple Crown but it is tougher now to achieve that feat now I believe, mainly because of the 20 horse field in The Derby. It is hard to imagine that anyone else could be the Derby favorite other than California Chrome. He's like a souped up 57 Chevy with the chrome all shined up, cruising down the highway at 110 mph with the hood down, daring any other car to tangle with him, and there are no takers yet.

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 12:47:48 GMT

JayJay,

The three horses that made the board with Wicked Strong were previously undefeated. I have not done any research but it is likely to be an unprecedented achievement by a winner of a G1, Derby prep. That's a giant act!

Social Inclusion is not an average 3YO. I am of the opinion that if not for his pre-race issues, draw, rankness and faults in his of preparation, the finish would have been either closer or different. He looked like a short horse and based on his training reports he probably was.

He came to the top of the stretch with his rider taking a quick glance behind. When he was asked for his final effort he could not separate. That’s the sign of a horse that did not do enough endurance training. The program showed 8F works for the 2nd and 4th place finishers. It also showed a strong 7F work for Wicked Strong. Apparently his trainer felt the deeper track at the Big A and the additional 1/2F would be a cake walk for his petted superstar.

Honor Code was a top rated 2YO. To suggest that SI defeated no opponent of quality in his TR effort is a stretch. He was also not over hyped as he is a very talented colt. In different hands the outcome would have been different.

Why use blinkers on horse with tactical speed and an affinity to lead? If he breaks badly he is obviously going to tug his rider and use himself needlessly. Why use vet raps on horse that some are seeking acquire?

A lot of folks reacted positively to the piece featuring his old school trainer. Well he received a taste of new school. His post-race comments were not those of a serious trainer. "Next time he'll win; he'll kill them." Why didn’t he kill them in them Wood? What caused the colt to lose that gave him the confidence to make such a statement? Was it for his or his owner’s assurance?

SI is a very talented colt that needs to be relocated to a serious trainer despite the owners’ loyalty to their old school trainer.

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 12:16:00 GMT

Speaking of Secretariat, the damsire of Secretariat, Princequillo, is on California Chrome's pedigree four times, three on top and once on the bottom and Secretariat himself is on top in the pedigree. It appears that we indeed may have a super horse and that Secretariat jumped levels to infiltrate California Chrome's heart, stride and speed. I'm beginning to think that any pedigree bias that I or anyone has in regard to any aspect of CC's pedigree might have to be tossed out the window, but don't be a litterbug, so go pick up that trash and keep it as a momento so as to remind yourself- don't toss a horse because you initially don't like the pedigree. We may indeed have a super horse on our hands. He looks even better to me now after seeing the replay again. It's not like he had an easy trip but he did it so easy in a great time and just looked spectacular.

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Brontexx — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 12:07:01 GMT

On the topic of scribes and figures since their work is done on PAPER I would imagine most are Beyer methodologists and cant run 100 without reaching for a cigarete.

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Brontexx — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 11:56:29 GMT

Dagnabit now the scribes will have to ship to Cali to pester Art Sherman in the week or two before the Derby as he has decided to ship on top of the race.I guess one reason is Churchill Downs can be thought of as a hill of red ants compared to Los Alimitos.

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Brontexx — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 11:52:15 GMT

Now all we need is Vicars In Trouble, Wildcat Red, Constitution, Gen-Arod, and CC to all draw inside the 10 post or all but one of them, and we might get a derby like the one in 2001 and that was on a fast track.

In that case Beyer methodologists will have to play top figure closer Wicked Strong unless another closer monsters the figure calculations in the Arkansas Derby.

re: Derby Dozen - March 31, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Racingfan — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 05:24:32 GMT

All I can say is WOW to California Chrome's race! Good call Steve picking him out as a potential superstar before he won his last two races! I hope he turns out to be as good as he appears! It would be awesome to have a great colt this year!

***Sceptre - when I was talking about fillies racing against colts back in the day, I personally was not referring to 3 year old fillies. I am aware that not that many fillies have been in the triple crown races. It was usually 4-5 year olds running against the boys that I was referring to. As far as 3 year olds, what I said was it was not uncommon for the colts to face older horses prior to the triple crown rather than near the end of the year like they do now. Can't wait for the new dozen Steve!