Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Quinnbit — Tue, 15 Apr 2014 18:00:34 GMT

Windolin

WOW! An extremely beautiful piece! It is absolutely, unequivocally the best. Your to be admired for your outstanding understanding of the horse and the theater they operate in. Thanks for sharing

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Tue, 15 Apr 2014 03:37:38 GMT

Jean In Chicago : Thanks for the explanation, was confused because your initial post sounded like you wanted me to "chill out" about cuba's all caps, no period posts. I was interested in reading but like I said, it was just too hard to understand without getting cross eyed. See you in the latest dozen! :)

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Tue, 15 Apr 2014 02:43:07 GMT

Windolin,

I got lost reading your last post. My only issue with CC is the fact the he is being classifies as special. I have not criticized his pedigree. I think his sire is moderate son of Pulpit but I have not focused on that. You have taken it step further by classifying him as great. Have you evaluated the potential of Shared Belief, Constitution and Wicked Strong?

The issue I have with the supporters of CC is the fact that they have gone all in on a colt that has not yet faced the best of his peers. His performances in CA are being used to forecast his likely performances at a CD, Pimlico and Belmont. That crazy!

CC could be a special horse but so could Share Belief, Constitution and Wicked Strong. Share Belief and Constitution are undefeated and have recorded three impressive victories. They both had more impressive starts to their careers than CC. He has made 7 more starts then they have. What will unfold in their next 7 starts? They did not wait for their 7th start for a break out performance and consequently could get better with more experience.

You appear to be so paranoid about this colt that you have determined that doubters COLDFACTS and DRAYNAY need sympathy for not recognizing that he is either special or great. Wow!

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Jean in Chicago — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 22:50:18 GMT

Jayjay,

Some years back KY VET used to post in all caps and he got the same complaints, hard to read and felt like yelling. If Cuba has suddenly gone to all caps and strange english, its a shame. Its too hard to pay attention to the message if the medium gets in the way.

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Windolin — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 21:01:03 GMT

COLDFACTS and DRAYNAY:

Horses are living creatures that have intelligence and personalities. They are not just so many statistics, paper pedigrees and Beyer speeds. A colt or filly is the result of its sire and dam, but not a carbon copy or clone of them, but rather a unique individual just like you and I and all other humans are.

I do not doubt for a minute that if Secretariat were running in this year’s Derby, that you would be critiquing every aspect about him based on “paper” and decide and argue that there is no way he could win the Derby, much less win the Triple Crown.

I am one of the people who has been made fun of and ridiculed for comments I have made on this post and my selection of horses and although I have not clearly come out and stated yet that California Chrome is my pick to win the Derby, I am sure I will be subject to harsh criticism by you and several others on this site.

There are several factors that I think that you either do not understand or do not believe or cannot find written in a pedigree or cannot determine statistically and therefore you leave them out of your analysis.

Pedigree is important and is a baseline that I use in making a determination on the feasibility of the horses’ success. It is something I take into consideration when I am thinking about breeding a mare or purchasing a horse. We all have bloodlines that we prefer. I have to be honest and say that the reason I was not on the Cali Chrome bandwagon early on is his pedigree, but not for your reasons, rather, I am bothered by how deeply inbred this colt is to Northern Dancer. You see, I am one of those people who think that Northern Dancers weakness in bone has been genetically passed down through all the successive generations of progeny and especially holds true when there is multiple generations of inbreeding.

But then I started studying his pedigree and found it to be quite impressive: In addition to Secretariat of course, I found Caro, Narrate, Honest Pleasure, Buckpasser, Man O War, Numbered Account, Sir Ivor, Something Royal (twice) and even Swaps. And what impressed me additionally was that so many of the horses in his bloodline came from Claiborne Farm. If you have never visited Claiborne’s website, you really should, their history is an almost surreal read on all the racing greats…back in the old times..when a decision to breed was based on knowing the stallion and the mare. Old school breeding says that you breed to improve the mare. In other words, since a foal is usually 60% of the mare, the mare is bred to a stallion that will improve upon her shortcomings for a foal that will hopefully take the best from both parents. This was long before like True Nicks and blood horse consultants. And since I am firm believer and know first hand that certain qualities can be passed down from many generations back, not just the first five as some believe, I started thinking that this colt, despite his humble beginnings is royally bred and no doubt has benefited from his royal ancestors.

The other factor I take into consideration is the trainer. God bless him, I just have to love Mr. Sherman. He has actually ridden a champion racehorse. His experience and love of horses goes back a lifetime. He is not the head of a huge training conglomerate like the Bafferts, the Assmussens and the Pledgers, rather he is hands on trainer and knows everything about California Chrome there is to know. He again is “old school” and the type of trainer that we need more of.

Another factor is the that this colt was bred and still owned by the same people. He was not sent off to be prepped for the sale ring. He was given love and care from the day that he was born in the same home. Horses thrive on consistency. They respond to love in ways that might be beyond your comprehension.

They know when you believe in them, much in the same way that Penny Tweedy believed in Secretariat and the Mosses in Zenyatta. Horses pick up on this from their owners. I am in no way saying that the big breeders do not love and care for their horses, there is just a difference. The owners even have a picture history of Cali Chrome from when he was born through his childhood.

Then the owners…people with a dream. A stallion with a $2500 stud fee and a mare that was bought for $8K and one of the owners is a press operator in a factory. Humble beginnings away from the glittery high dollar horse breeding industry. You just cannot not ever rule out a horse just because he had humble beginnings.

The jockey, Victor Espinoza, has consistently been the one to ride this colt. I even saw a picture of him riding the colt in a training session this past week. This colt trusts Victor and Victor trusts and truly likes him. In a high stakes race with 19 other runners, you want and need this advantage.

Then there is California Chrome himself. I have watched the replays of his races. He literally glides across the track, seemingly effortlessly. He runs to win of his own doing and responds to what Victor asks of him. Not once have I seen the whip raised, rather he is hand ridden every step of the way. I do not think he hardly breaks a sweat. His running style reminds me of Secretariat’s. He does not waste a lot of energy getting into that easy relaxed run and fighting with his jockey.

When he popped up on the screen, I commented on this very site of how impressed I was with his conditioning. His muscles were deep and long and firm and he seems to have maintained this great conditioning during the racing season.

Then there is attitude. I call Cali Chrome a “honest” horse. In my world, that is a horse that is consistent every day, he gives the same 110% effort every time. An honest horse is not going to let you down by doing something stupid like some of the colts did this prep season. If he does have an off day, there is probably a very good reason for it, like Secretariat with the gum abscess.

Cali Chrome is a very laid back horse. He knows his job and he relishes doing it. Someone attended the Santa Anita and made the observation that he was so calm, so relaxed, that he loved the crowds and that after the race was over he turned and looked back down the track as if to say , WOW, I did that!. He is very very confident in himself and takes pride in his work.

Oh I know that some of this sounds like a bunch of hocus pocus but if you truly know horses and have spent years observing them and getting to know them, you would not call it hocus pocus.

Then there is his conformation. On another site there have been photos of Cali and Secretariat. Granted he is not conformation perfection that Secretariat was, but he has a deep, long hip that gives him great propulsion off the back end. He has a longer back than Secretariat, which seems to run in the Pulpits. But, keep in mind that Wise Dan is a very long bodied horse. He has a long reaching stride like Secretariat that eats up ground very efficiently.

Then there is something that you and others on this site will laugh about….but go ahead and laugh…it is intuition. Intuition tells me that there is something special about this colt that goes beyond being a flashy chestnut that looks like Secretariat. Over the years, when I allow myself to do so and trust my intuition about a race horse and not be swayed by “professional” opinions, I am usually right and more years than not I pick the winning horse in the Derby right out of the post parade.

Do I live in the Easter Bunny and Peter Pan world that leads me to believe that Cali is a shoo-in. Nope, I do not. I know that his post position is important. Do I know that there are other horses and jockeys that will try to run him down or box him in, of course I do. Then there are the track conditions to consider and will he ship well? But these challenges face all the colts. It will simply boil down to which colt can handle these challenges the best on that particular day and which one the great racing legends that have crossed the Rainbow Bridge will smile down upon.

And there is one more thing…it is something called “heart” The heart of the horse, the trainer and the owners. And heart, Cold facts (and a couple of others like you on this post) is something I think you do not seem understand or have any appreciation for. You will not find “heart” on paper or in a Beyer speed ..it is something that you have to look into the eye of the horse and the trainer and the owners to see. Anyone who has any experience with horses will tell you, that a horse has the tremendous capability to did down deep and accomplish the seemingly impossible from their “heart”.

I doubt very seriously if any of this has made an impact on you and will not change your mind about Cali or any other horse that I like, but perhaps it will open your eyes to the fact that there is more than one way to pick a favorite, that there is more than one methodology out there and that we are not all a bunch of blathering idiots who are totally uneducated about horses.

Racing has some big black eyes…the break down of Eight Bells, the doping charges, the PETA video and all the Thoroughbreds being sold for slaughter. It is a sport and an industry that will surely wither up and die if something does not reverse the trend of what the American people think about racing as of recent years.

Racing needs a hero, a champion that the American people can wrap their hearts around. Racing needs a Secretariat, a Seabiscuit. This country needs a hero, a champion that the country can wrap its heart around. We need a “people’s horse” Is this the year? Is California Chrome the horse? Is this the year that the long drought of Triple Crown winners ends? Is this the year that turns the corner for racing and starts erasing those black eyes?

Maybe, maybe not. But in my book, California Chrome is the best thing we have going this year and there is nothing that you or anyone else can say that can sway me from him. Only time will tell here in just a few weeks.

Greatness can come from anywhere and in ways I kind of feel sympathy for you and a couple others on this site for not being able to recognize that.

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 20:32:00 GMT

Coldfacts, what I highlighted are cold facts. Mr. Prospector was a sprinter, not a stayer, and that is a fact. Many of his best runners throw back more to their dam's pedigrees in looks and aptitude; this is another fact. It is so unfortunate that you did not read everything I wrote.

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Smoking Baby — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 18:20:04 GMT

Draynay, you could be right about Constitution.

I'm sure few will complain if Constitution wins the Derby. He's worthy and it would be great for WinStar. It wouldn't hurt racing to see Pletcher (first class act & represents the sport well) win another one and I'd personally like to see a son of Tapit win one of these Triple Crown races. It would be one more Derby "curse" erased (Apollo) as well.

Make no mistake, he's one of the two or three to beat. I'm thinking at this point my top 4 are:

California Chrome

Wicked Strong

Constitution

Ride On Curlin

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

IOWay — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 17:56:42 GMT

Cold Facts: Do you think Constitution "destroyed" Wildcat Red and General A Rod in the Florida Derby???? He sat off the lead on the rail the whole way ala Super Saver in the 2010 Derby, let Wildcat Red and General A Rod do all the work on the front end and then slipped through the rail and beat Wildcat Red by a short neck and General A Rod by about a length. Hardly destruction of those two!!! He may be the real deal but you are way overselling him.

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Jean in Chicago — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 17:56:32 GMT

Alydar78,

Yes, some of us have commented on the horrible names some horses have been saddled with (pun intended). Just remember The Green Monkey. And who thought Carry Back's parents should be named 'Saggy' and 'Joppy'? I figure the horse is just too embarrassed hearing his name called and wants to hide in the back where he won't be noticed.

Obviously, a noble sounding name isn't actually going to increase a horse's talent and he will probably have a 'barn name' like Mickey, Spike, or Red, but come on, owners, show a little effort (and don't drink too much before filling out those Jockey Club papers.)

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 17:46:24 GMT

Mary,

“Let’s start with your obsession with Mr. Prospector.”

Mr. Prospector has been long gone. His male tail descendants have dominated the TC series of race in the US and have sired the winner of all the major International races.

It is surprising that anyone would attempt to diminish Mr. Prospector’s stature as sire and sire of sires. Such was his contribution to the breeding industry in the US, that he was buried between two Triple Crown winners from different continents i.e., Nijinsky and Secretariat.

He is one of only a very few stallion that have sired a winner of each leg of the TC. Nine of his son and 10 of his grandsons have sired 24 horses that have won 35 TC races in the US.

What I highlight are cold facts. If you have a desires twist same into an obsession be my guest.

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

It aint easy being good! — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 17:18:57 GMT

This blog sounds like its a 2 horse race for the derby. Beware of the forgotten horse. That horse is the cairo prince. The horse had a long vacation and ran like one in his first race back. Expect a different result in 3 weeks!!

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 17:08:24 GMT

Mary,

“Beliefs and Convictions are based on one’s MORAL compass, and therefore your quote makes no sense.”

MORAL COMPASS: used in reference to a person's ability to judge what is right and wrong and act accordingly.

BELIEF: An acceptance that a statement is true of that something exists! Trust, faith or confidence in someone or something!

Does Draynay believes his statements represent truth? Who do you think Draynay has confidence in? I would conclude himself. What thing do you believe he has confidence in? Try his ability to evaluate thoroughbreds objectively based on their performances.

CONVICTION: A formal declaration that someone is guilty of a criminal offense! A firmly held opinion!

Which of the above definitions is applicable in my advice to Draynay?

I am not a very good student of English but I do not believe the two words were used inappropriately. In thoroughbred racing the ability judge what is right and wrong and act accordingly rest with the owners and training staff of horses not with the handicappers and fans.

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Quinnbit — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 16:20:39 GMT

Terlingua, thanks. I enjoy posting, and acknowledgement is always a bonus.

I'm really looking forward to Steve's post this afternoon.

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

The Bid — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 15:54:44 GMT

FACTS

You are certainly correct in referring to CONSTITUTION as "special" the facts you laid out would certainly deem him the label. Your questioning of CALIFORNIA CHROME in comparison to SHARED BELIEF is well noted BUT....Is there a possibility that as a 2yr.old CALIFORNIA CHROME was learning & dealing with a trainer before Sherman who had no clue in what he had and that CHROME was "still green as ever" as the majority of 2yr. olds are????!!!!!!! Then comes Sherman and some equipment adjustments and then the hose turns 3, light goes on and Sherman realizes potential and all the while CALIFORNIA CHROME becomes professional and PUSH-BUTTON when called upon (hasn't been called on YET!)! We will never know regarding SHARED BELIEF until he takes to the track again! BUT we do know how "Special" he was @ 2yrs old but that is NOT the question, we want to know how "special" he is @ 3yrs. old!

There are still a number of "special" colts in this crop heading to The Derby, we just don't know HOW SPECIAL yet!!! We shall see, but if we can take anything away from the past 4 months, is THIS.....There's A TON of early-speed and most seem to be able to carry it to the wire (WILDCAT RED, GENERAL AROD,SAMRAAT,CHROME,CONSTITUTION) with only a few legit closers (WICKED STRONG, INTENSE HOLIDAY maybe HOPPERTUNITY). IMO all the above mentioned are tested unlike some want to argue that fact, and given certain undeniable facts that WILL certainly diminish them on Derby Day ( Post draw and track condition), there is a lot that can happen between now and the next 3 weeks!

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 15:45:49 GMT

zarvona, I very much agree with your analysis of Chitu. He is a beautifully bred colt. At this point, I can't leave him out of my top picks. I don't know if he is going to the derby.

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mary — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 15:36:16 GMT

Coldfacts,

Lets start with your obsession with Mr. Prospector. He won 1/2 of his 14 career starts. Mr. Prospector was a great sire of speed (he was a sprinter) and class, but he did NOT kick out cookie-cutter versions of himself. In fact, many of his best runners throw back more to their DAM'S pedigrees in looks and aptitude, in particular his greatest sire son Fappiano, who has created his own dominant branch of the Mr. Prospector sire line. This is the branch that has produced more of the STAYERS.

You said that California Chrome's profile does not fit that of a derby winner, WHY? When you make such remarks, it is important to give an explanation of your findings. Tell me about his profile, please.

You also said "stay strong to your beliefs and convictions, as those that oppose them..." Please understand that beliefs and convictions are based on ones MORAL compass, and therefore your quote makes no sense. What you should have said is "stay strong to your opinion, based on careful study and analysis of the horses that you consider derby quality.

TerriV, Revolutionary, Wise Dan, and Will Take Charge are such lovely horses and all three are beautifully bred. I know you likely have checked out their pedigrees.

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

AngelaInAbilene — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 15:10:13 GMT

Correction: Should NOT have been overlooked.

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 14:56:32 GMT

AngelaInAbilene,

When I was comprising the post I initially noted Mine That Bird, Northern Dancer and Sonny's Halo. They were all Canadian 2YO champions that won the Derby. For reason unknown I omitted them and focused on the US based 2YO champions.

For my indiscretion I beg your forgiveness.

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

AngelaInAbilene — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 14:07:32 GMT

"Mind That Bird comes to Churchill and destroys the field what does that say about the racing world outside of New Mexico?" I have to once again point out that "Mine That Bird" was the Canadian 2 y/o Champion. He was a MADE horse. A horse that should have been overlooked as the information was readily available. The only reason he was a longshot in the Derby is because the media made it sound like a rags to riches story about 3 old boys and a horse from New Mexico. So how can Mine That Bird say anything about New Mexico racing?

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Draynay — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 13:51:13 GMT

I am on Constitution as you all know... and I could care less about some 2 year old curse. It doesn't mean a thing to the horse and he has shown grit and an unwillingness to lose. But the even bigger mistake is to dismiss a very tough and talented Wildcat Red. If you suddenly think Wicked Strong or Danza are better and tougher than Wildcat Red because he may not like the extra 200 yards ? Trust me when I tell you there are not 4 horses better than Wildcat Red. So far I am only willing to believe there is 1.

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Sail On — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 13:14:39 GMT

Alydar78

Yes, some of the horses's names leave one scratching one's head. Poor horses, at least they are able to feel embarrassed.

Horses contending for this year's derby with the best champion names: (short list)

Danza

Constitution

Chitu

Medal Count

Cairo Prince

Vinceremos

Bayern

Coastline

Strong Mandate

Noble Moon

Clerburne

Commissioner

Schivarelli

Conquest Titan

Casiguapo

But, the only one of the above that I believe will be in the money come Derby Day is possibly Danza. So, just like the colours that a horse carries, names are not a factor in winning, but they do influence the odds.

Steve, 412 comments, looks like you've enthralled quite a few of us with your tremendous blog, and awesome descriptions of the colts that are contending.

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 12:39:46 GMT

El Kaabong and Keelerman,

Thanks for the help with the Bluegrass. I hit the tri and exacta for $2 each. In the black for the Derby.

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 12:36:19 GMT

Mister Frisky,

I intended to specify that Curlin's progenies perform well on Turf as well. Kindly note the correction.

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 12:30:51 GMT

Robinm,

At least your input was delivered in a civil manner and I wish otheres would adopt this approach instead of demonizing those who are of different opinions.

“2 year olds don't run in the Derby.”

I am not sure how to interpret the above since the Derby is a race restricted to 3YOs. I cited two brilliant 2YOs and enquired whether they should have been considered special? That had nothing to do with the Derby

In fact, very few 2-yr old champs have won it.

Street Sense is the only BCJ winner to win the Derby. However, several 2YO champions have won the Derby. Count Fleet, Citation, Needles, Riva Ridge, Secretariat, Foolish Pleasure, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid and Street Sense achieved Derby victory. Many other 2YO champions won Triple Crown races as well..

“In my opinion, and in the opinion of many more knowledgeable than I, CC has been the most impressive colt in this year’s Derby preps.”

I concur that he has been the most impressive and I have posted no opposing views to the contrary. However, does this mark him special?

“Draynay may ask, "who has he beat", my answer is, who could have beat him in any of his last 4 races?”

Obviously none of those that opposed him who were largely unknowns! The answer to your question would be Constitution who happens to be Draynay selection. Why Constitution? He is undefeated whilst CC has been defeated by lesser on 4 occasions. Constitution remains undefeated whilst facing significantly better opponents.

Was Constitution expected to destroy Wildcat Red, General A Rod and Cairo Prince in the FL Derby similar to CC destruction of lesser in the SA Derby?

I concur with CC impressiveness in his last 4 starts. I have in no way tried to discredit him. I have just question the rationale behind a colt that had a break out race in his 7th start and won 3 subsequent races impressively against lesser and labeled special. Look at the 2YO champions above it will be clear the CC has been impressive but it's premature to label him special.

re: Derby Dozen - April 7, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Draynay — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 12:03:27 GMT

I know talent when I see it and what Constitution has done in just 3 races should amaze everyone. This is a very fast horse. Remember he ran a 44 half mile split AFTER missing the BREAK ! If he choses to on or near the lead at the half mile pole in the Derby no on can stop him.

Bayern beat California WINNERS by 15 lengths.... and then faced 2 horses from another state that haven't won anything all year and he lost big. The facts are there....