Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

cuba"s classic chef de race — Sun, 27 Apr 2014 07:29:58 GMT

a blogger said my comments are boring or something like that but according with his or her comment I do not see a person that wants the bloggers to win but that is okey if you want to be rich me too but if you need a tablet to sleep the derby is next week, if you don't like my comments then keep dreaming, I do not waist my time thinking about derby dreamers.

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Brontexx — Tue, 22 Apr 2014 21:32:38 GMT

Hey Weisner now that this is off central blog who is your REAL PICK for the Derby?

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

LAZMANICK — Tue, 22 Apr 2014 05:14:30 GMT

Hey Mike, still waiting for your email. I'm doing fine and I hope you are too. I was thinking about Phony the other day and wondered how he was doing myself.

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Tue, 22 Apr 2014 03:06:00 GMT

Draynay : lol, that was a good try at spinning this...I'll give ya that. You say they left GP to avoid Wildcat Red...pls try again... Wicked Strong as we all know now did not like GP, not because of WR but the track, that's quite clear. Danza was not ready to run until the Arkansas Derby so that leaves us with Constitution, a very inexperienced colt that was running his 3rd start in the FD... and WR can't hold him off. Like I said, put your money on him, but seeing your post in the new blog, sounds like you're already regarding him as 2nd best to A Rod. I'm not sure who the "comers" you're talking about that WR beat up on...any of them in the Derby ? If i'm to rank your top four it'll be Wicked Strong / Constitution / Danza then Wildcat Red.

See ya in the new blog...

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Draynay — Tue, 22 Apr 2014 00:59:07 GMT

Jayjay again.... my point I see went right by you. If either trainer thought Wicked Strong or Danza were good enough to win the FOY or Florida Derby you would have seen them in there instead of traveling a 1000 miles. They left seeking a little easier competition. Constitution beat Wildcat Red by a head..... Constitution beat Wicked Strong by 6+ lengths. Wildcat minus Constitution is the King of Florida based on the Hutcheson, FOY and Florida Derby. If you remember Wicked Strong lost to Cairo by 15+ and Wildcat BEAT Cairo!!! Pletcher himself will tell you Constitution is a super horse, a freak and it took all of that freak to beat Wildcat. Constitution is not running in the Derby so someone else will have to step up and take him on and no one else has been able to do it..... General A Rod has been close and I will be betting he is one of the few with any chance to do it. Danza and Wicked Strong had to leave Florida... Wildcat Red stuck around and beat up all comers. Good luck passing him on Derby Day.

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mike Relva — Tue, 22 Apr 2014 00:11:26 GMT

Laz

How are things going for you? Do you ever hear from phony jj?

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 21 Apr 2014 22:33:29 GMT

LAZMANICK

“They are just attention seekers anyway and like to upset people have who have true passion, not only for a particular horse, but for the sport in general.”

I have on occasions posted comments regarding Zenyatta. Let me assure you that said posts are not done to attract attention. My most recent posts contained nothing that discredited the brilliant race mare. They contained views that brought into context the reality of her defeat.

There has been so much spin placed on her defeat that is has become annoying. Many people selected Blame to defeat her and he did. Many people selected her to win and she lost. Those who do not engage in her glorification should not be seen as any less passionate about the mare or the sport in general. It not a fair assessment and you should be aware of same.

“That was a beautiful post you wrote about one of the greatest mares to ever step foot on a race track.”

The above is clearly your opinion and it appears it's the driving force behind your passion for the mare. There is nothing wrong with harboring such a belief. However, if cold facts are presented to challenge said belief the challenger should not be seen as engaging in bashing.

If you ask an Australian who is the greatest mares to ever step foot on a race track, Black Caviar would be the answer. She was undefeated in 25 starts and she travelled thousands of miles to contest one in Europe. Zenyatta rarely left CA.

If you ask a Hungarian who is the greatest mares to ever step foot on a race track, Kincsem would be the answer. She won a reported 55 races from 55 starts.

Zenyatta’s supporters are at liberty to believe that she is greatest mares to ever step foot on a race track. However, it does not make it so. What is being achieved by demonizing those who think otherwise by classifying them as horse bashing, passion lacking, upsetting attention seekers?

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Mon, 21 Apr 2014 22:13:48 GMT

Draynay : and furthermore, Wildcat Red never beat Wicked Strong, nor Danza and the one time he faced Constitution, he lost to him. Wicked Strong won a G1 and so did Danza and so did Constitution so how can WR be the KING of Florida horses when he has only a G2 win and was beaten by a very inexperienced horse ? From your post, seems to me, it's pretty evident that he's the 4th stringer in that group lol...are you sure he's the king??

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Mon, 21 Apr 2014 22:05:46 GMT

Draynay : No I wasn't kidding and I was specifically talking about Wildcat Red, what does the O75K winners winning those preps have anything to do with Wildcat Red ? Is this like a Gulfstream / Florida team where if one horse wins a race, they all "win" it ? As far as I know, Wildcat Red has only won the FOY....

Don't get me wrong, bet the farm on him! Wasn't trying to persuade you as I know he's your number horse. I don't like neither so it's better for me that those two will most likely get a lot of action.

Also, did you know that Bayern had raced twice in CA, one maiden and one Allowance race. So he did not face any of the top stakes horses IN California as correctly stated by Ann.

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Draynay — Mon, 21 Apr 2014 21:33:41 GMT

Jayjay.... I can only imagine that you must be joking.... excluding a head win by a super horse Constitution the KING of Florida racing is Wildcat Red. Florida horses that have raced in OC75k races at GP in their next race won the WOOD, THE ARKANSAS DERBY and FLORIDA DERBY. Need I say more ?

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Draynay — Mon, 21 Apr 2014 20:30:27 GMT

Pedigree Ann.... Bayern didn't face any top 3 year old horses in California ? Who do you consider a top 3 year old Dublin Up ?

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 21 Apr 2014 20:19:33 GMT

Wicked Strong

Medal Count

General A Rod

California Chrome

Danza

Vinceremos

hoppertunity

We Miss Artie

Ride on Curlin

Intense Holiday

Tapiture

Uncle sigh

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Mon, 21 Apr 2014 19:59:22 GMT

Here's a question for everyone : None of these colts have ever had to carry 126 lbs during their prep races, how would that affect your handicapping or does it ?

I know each horse will carry 126 so one can say "it's all even" but I think that some horses can take the extra lbs and not affect their running style and some horses don't. My question has to do more with how do you handicap that for the Derby at 10Fs ? Does the impact of the weight get felt in the middle of the race, or towards the end ? or even from the start ? Some horses are bigger than the others, which to me, might be able to handle the extra lbs...but like Vicar's In Trouble, would he be affected by it more since he's smaller ?

There's no true answer to the question as we don't know how the horse will feel but I wanted to get everyone's thoughts on that. I've always ignored the weight increase...

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

LAZMANICK — Mon, 21 Apr 2014 19:41:13 GMT

Hey Paula Higgins

How are you? That was a beautiful post you wrote about one of the greatest mares to ever step foot on a race track. As far as feeling that we have to defend Zenyatta to a shrinking few, it is probably best to let those few ramble on. They are just attention seekers anyway and like to upset people have who have true passion, not only for a particular horse, but for the sport in general. I say who cares what they have to say. What we see with our own eyes and the actual facts, not something made up and distorted, those are the things that count. Have a good one.

Now on to the Derby. It is interesting that Mike Watchmaker, in rating the key preps, rated them as follows:

Santa Anita Derby: A

Wood Memorial: A-

Arkansas Derby: B+

Florida Derby: B-

Louisiana Derby: B-

Sunland Derby: C

Blue Grass: C-

Spiral: D

Calder Derby: D-

We all know that California Chrome is the current horse to beat, but two that I like are both coming out of the Wood, Wicked Strong and Samraat. CC has been exceptional so far this year and is not over-raced or under-raced with his last 4 races spaced out 5-6 weeks apart. He is back on the work tab after being given a bit of a breather and based on his last work looks like he hasn’t lost a step.

Wicked Strong has the demeanor of a Derby horse, allows the jock to rate him, has a good kick, and drew off nicely ion the Wood. He too is back working after a two week break and with two weeks to go to the Derby, should gain in strength and stature.

My favorite (though not necessarily the one I think is best) is Samraat. This guy is honest as they come, gutsy, and always tries his hardest. I still maintain that his race in the Wood was for a learning experience, even in a $1M race. I love the way he dug in and outran Social Inclusion for second. That tells you lots about the horse.

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Mon, 21 Apr 2014 19:32:09 GMT

So Wildcat Red has never run except at Gulfstream Park, he's only faced mostly horses from Gulstream Park. He never recorded a fast time in any of his races.

California Chrome has raced at 3 different tracks and two different surfaces. He demolished any fields that he ran against and recorded super fast times while not breaking a sweat.

How is Wildcat Red any better than California Chrome ? Wildcat Red has not beaten any horses that is above par. I don't get why Wildcat Red is such a superstar...Social Inclusion at least set a track record on that conveyor belt. All I've seen is "he's a tough horse", but I don't know if his toughness will get him to hit the board in the Derby.

Windolin: Are you a painter from Austria ?

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Brontexx — Mon, 21 Apr 2014 19:00:30 GMT

California form will receive downgrades from me if it is raining if it is a hard track holding speed good for CC backers.

Hoppertunity takes his track with him he has run in 3 preps one at home and two on the road.If Bayern gets in, I think BBs will send him and CC will be downgraded some.I wont be surprised if he sends Chitu BBs plays to win and he has the colts to get another W at CD.

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mike Relva — Mon, 21 Apr 2014 18:55:29 GMT

Cassandra.Says

Zenyatta overcame alot in her last race to narrowly lose. Let's don't dilute what she accomplished. She didn't have the best trip by far. Bottom line,Blame is a nice horse,but what did he generate for bringing new fans into racing compared to Zenyatta? Waiting on you response.

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 21 Apr 2014 17:57:30 GMT

Arch the phoneman,

Keelerman gave out the Illinois Derby trifecta, and not the boxed kind, over on his blog.

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 21 Apr 2014 17:54:48 GMT

Brontexx,

I'm not talking about the "consensus" on this blog. I'm talking about the consensus from among many sources of horceracing coverage.

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

RedRose777 — Mon, 21 Apr 2014 14:00:00 GMT

Someone here asked when we would ever see a horse almost win the Classic from nearly 20 lengths back. Doesn't anyone remember Concern in 1994? He was at least 15-20 behind on the backstretch and had 8 to make up rounding the far turn. He had to go really wide and he won! I remember Durkin's call of "and Concern from out of the clouds!" It was awesome. Then the next year we got to see the best horse of the 90's -- "The incomparable, invincible, unbeatable Cigar!" Great memories of when racers were campaigned like champs!

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Pedigree Ann — Mon, 21 Apr 2014 13:42:23 GMT

I find the denigration of California form bemusing. Especially the reaching some have been doing.

Like in the Charleston Classic - both the first two home were shippers from SoCal, but because GoD runs second to a horse **who had already beaten him with a pace assist in the San Antonio**, this is a negative for SoCal form? The 'Eastern' horse Moreno, who trained at SA all winter, finished behind them; this is the same Moreno who was beaten only a nose by Will Take Charge in last year's Travers.

Then the Midnight Hawk, Bayern, and Kristo thing. Midnight Hawk and Kristo finished first and second in a 1 mile, 4-runner G3 early in the prep season. Since then, as the distances have lengthened, neither has improved their form. Midnight Hawk was 7 lengths behind California Chrome in the San Felipe - Baffert knew then that this one wasn't his Derby horse, so he sent him on the G3 path to pick up some more money and perhaps some cred as a stallion prospect. Kristo was even further back in the San Felipe behind CC - 13 lengths; the extra 1/16th of the Wood allowed him to fall yet further behind. The Sham was indeed a sham of a race this year.

Bayern went into the Arkansas Derby without having faced any of the top 3yos out in California. Yes, Baffert thought well of him, but he always thinks well of the colts he sends out of town to avoid the big guns in SoCal. Bayern had missed training due to a foot problem so is behind the curve for Derby horses and Baffert knows it, just as he knows how poor the Arkansas-based contingent is this year. After all, he beat them with Hoppertunity, who was beaten open lengths by California Chrome last out.

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Draynay — Mon, 21 Apr 2014 12:44:36 GMT

12 days from the Derby and where are all the horses ? Is there magic in keeping your horse away from the track in Kentucky ? It's just not smart and hurts your chances not running on the track. Paula I hope you understand there are people out there that loved watching Blame run as much as you liked seeing your California horse run however, those people have to wonder how on earth you can win the biggest race on the biggest day in racing along with everything else he had done and not win HOY. I feel sorry for the horse and all that loved him to get something taken from him.

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Gary D. — Mon, 21 Apr 2014 11:59:54 GMT

Coldfacts:

Thank you for the clear and concise answer to my question. It will be used and factored in when I construct my wagers for the Derby.

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Brontexx — Mon, 21 Apr 2014 11:35:56 GMT

Rusty Weisner The consensus on this blog is that CC romps so his not so good classic breeding is overlooked and posters find the positives as they are already convinced this favorite will win.

After its over just remember the consensus for CCs breeding was that he WOULD GET THE DISTANCE.

Orb was the favorite last year and he won,the consensus was correct that he would get the distance but it should have been obvious even to you a self proclaimed non expert when it comes to breeding.In 2012 Bodemeister was the favorite and finished 2nd the consensus on this blog was tepid as if he would get the distance eventhough I knew he was bred to run all day.The blog liked Creative Cause and Union Rags so they found ways to depreciate Bode.In 2011 the favorite was Nehro and he finished 2nd I dont recall any consensus on the blog.In 2010 the favorite was California speedster Sidneys Candy and there was NO CONSENSUS if he would get the distance.He finished near the bottom of the field.

The favorite has finished 1st or 2nd the last three years,the last time the KD favorite finished out of the money was 2010 with Californian Sydneys Candy.

re: Derby Dozen - April 14, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 21 Apr 2014 08:12:27 GMT

PAULA HIGGENS:

Zenyatta came from 20 back of horses who all stopped dead in the stretch; she was only five back of Blame.