February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Slew — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 14:50:20 GMT

Risen Star, General Assembly, Kingston Rule....all sired by Secretariat...all Classic winners. But his fillies did perform better in racing and as broodmares.

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Forbidden Apple — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 19:50:00 GMT

Secretariat is not known for being a great sire, although he has been a good broodmare sire.

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Slew — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 16:02:07 GMT

Coldfacts: Enough facts already. Sometimes the plethora of information just clouds the issues. I will however agree with you on one specific point...in the Robert B Lewis, I was most impressed by Dave in Dixie, and not Caracortado. He was in an all out sprint and almost made it. He also put American Lion and Tiz Chrome to shame with that closing. I really liked Take Control, but he's out of contention. Ron the Greek has been most impressive so far....I'll be watching the Risen Star and the FOY to see how Buddy does. My favorite from a Mr Prospector mare....Rock Hard Ten. I think he's perfect, and doing great as a sire. Keep an eye on an untested 3 yr old cold at the Fair Grounds turning in fantastic times in his works...Mine Train...by Mineshaft out of a Wild Again mare. (I love my AP Indy colts). And for the person who said Secretariat as a stallion has not produced...AP Indy...Telingua (dam of Storm Cat) and of course...Lady's Secret. I think he's done very well.

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

zarvona — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 00:23:11 GMT

Zarvona’s Derby Notes as of mid Feb. following Pool #1;

My annual Sports Writers Poll: as of opening Pool #1 Day, did reveal the following:

#1) “Lookin at Lucky”

#2)-#3) tied: “Buddy’s Saint” & “Super Savor” !!

#4) “Eskendereya”

#5.) “Tiz Chrome” …(likely to drop much lower after a poor weekend showing)…[[thinking that maybe Tiznow breds excel in speed at short distances early, but that it seems to take them awhile to get up to distance ahla “American Lion” also!]]…

close for all positions below:

#6.) “Maximus Ruler”

#7.) “American Lion” (likely to drop lower)

#8.)-#9.) tied: “Drosselmeyer” & “Jackson Bend”

#10.) “Lost Aptitude” … (which after this weekends runs & results will likely change radically…

& at honorable mention within several points of the top ten were: “Interactif”; “Dave in Dixie”; “Rule”; “Dublin”; & “Stay Put”;

If Pool # 1 was telling, first of all, the majority seem to feel that either we haven’t yet seen the Derby winner or that he wasn’t represented on the list presented with the #24 “all others” paying a most disappointing -3/2 odds, which makes one feel that they should have retained that money spent for another bet or another day or that the Pool in the future may want to drop the ‘field’ entrant as an option all together if they keep such low entry fields,--and thusly possibly just expand and add others & more names in the future!!!-- However, it did reveal that the fans did favor among those on the list at this juncture: “Lucking at Lucky” topping the list at 8-1 ; “Buddys Saint” 2nd at 10-1 ; “Super Saver”-“Drosselmeyer”-& “Dublin” all tied in to the three-four-five slots at 20-1; “Eskendereya” just behind at a close 6th at 22-1 ; “Rule” 7th at 24-1 ; “Vale of York” seemingly high and 8th at 26-1 ; “Dave in Dixie” in at 9th at 28-1 ; & “Ron the Greek” at a surprising 10th at 31-1. However, the best prices in my own mind followed on the hopefuls “Conveyance” 11th at 33-1 ; “Noble’s Promise” 13th at 36-1 ; “William’s Kitten” 24th at 54-1; “Maximus Ruler” 23rd at 76-1 ; & “Concord Point” 24th at 99-1 ; where I wish I had spent more money on them than on my own layout on “the field”!!

In any event, writing this before I submit this posting and before Steve’s –2/16 next dozen’s list appears, which I presume will not be out until after the running of the Southwest ?, (so much for that thought!!) I am going to speculate ahead of time, that we see undefeated “Caratortada” (old ‘scar face’) at 5 5 0 0 and “Drosselmeyer” sneak onto Steve’s next dozen!!! Maybe??

Meanwhile, my question remains… why aren’t we hearing more about the likes of “Vale of York” the BC Juv. winner!!!; “Pounced” 6 5 1 0 with his 2nd and only loss being a mere ¼ length lost to everyone’s seeming favorite “Lookin at Lucky” ?? ; undefeated Canadian “Hollinger” at 4 4 0 0 ; Virginia’s own “Outlaw Man” with a 1 1/8 run in at 1:49.25; the undefeated “Conveyance” at 3 3 0 0 ; and “Fly By Phil” with his own 1 1/8 run in at 1:48.17 ??; thusly, where do these rank & really stand versus everyone else’s favorite at this point or top dozen list at this juncture??!!! And, I am thusly still excluding the other non Early Derby Nominees!, some that I have previously mentioned, including the likes of:

Billions Boy: (Kty.); $250K $$ Keenlander; 2 1 1 0 ; 1 1/16 (T) 1:41.21;

Bim Bam: (Fla.); 1 1/6 (T) 1:41.73; 2nd 1 Mi. (T) 1:33.66; + head; 9 4 1 4 ; &

winner 1 1/16 Hallendale Beach 1:42.07; + a nose over Interactif;

Bridgetown: (Fla.); Call Shot: (Kty.);

Convoy Ahead: (Fla.); 3 3 0 0 ; 6 fur. 1:09. 84; Ghost Fleet: (Ont.); 4 3 0 0 ;

Heart Butte: (Kty.): 1 1/8 (T) 1:51.02; Mdn.; 2 1 1 0 ;

Nordic Truce: (Kty.); 1 Mi. (T) 1:35.18; + 4 ½; 2 2 0 0 ;

& Our Commander: (g) (Md.);…and etc.; …. although I know we can’t fit all in 12 or 20 slots YET!!!!

And please, stop with this silly attack that “they can’t come off the grass”!!! “Big Brown” not only came off the Turf, he was scheduled for a turf run after his layoff being his 2nd run that was taken off the Turf!!!

And so, my top dozen awaiting further preps at this point:

“Pounced” ; “Lookin at Lucky” ; “Buddy’s Saint” ; “Vale of York” ; “Super Saver” ; “Drosselmeyer” ;

“Outlaw Man” ; “Noble’s Promise” ; “Hollinger” ; “Conveyance” ; “Caracortado” ; “Fly By Phil”;

...and many many more do remain on my ‘watch list’, which does now also include “Desert Lord” –by (“Elusive Quality”)

Tr. K. McLaughlin !!

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 00:17:19 GMT

COLDFACTS,

Is your touting of Pleasant Storm to be taken as this year's version of your Summer Bird prediction last year? Your admission in the last line of that post dated: 15 Feb 9:13am "its a long shot but strange history is made in the derby" says that you shouldn't be too dogmatic about some of your history-based conclusions. Personally, I don't think Pleasant Storm will be ready for the Derby. The Pleasant Tap offsprings invariably need more time to reach their peak performance level (usually as 4YOs and older). Anyway good luck to you.

I hope that you have been paying attention to the Todd squad and Rule on the weekend. What an impressive specimen of a thoroughbred and he has lots of scope for improvement. Be prepared to eat some crow because Pletcher is on track for a possible exacta or trifecta in the Derby. Like you said "strange history is made in the derby." Those words you may not have to eat Pal(LOL).

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 23:47:04 GMT

COLDFACTS,

Your responses to Chuckles the Clown in defence of Mr Prospector dated Feb. 13 & 14 were excellent. Mr Prospector's sire Raise A Native has been identified in the past as a culprit in passing on brittleness along with brilliance to his progenies and Mr Prospector's great grandson Unbridled Song (very much like Raise A Native in throwing brilliance with brittleness) has created a bad rap for Mr P. Overall the facts/statistics as you have diligently unearthed them exonerate Mr Prospector as the source of unsoundnes. It is therefore disingenuous for "Chuckles" to say that his impact on the breed has been negative. Chuckles the Clown should re-examine his position on the matter. His use of Barbaro to support his position is rather fallacious. Also, Uptowncharlybrown had only his third outing in the Sam Davis and is expected to improve significantly next time out. He has the very successful triple crown inbreeding and crossing of Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer within the first five generations so he'll be ripe and ready for the Derby.

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Slew — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 17:25:42 GMT

Maybe you should wait for the Risen Star to post your next top horses. Ron the Greek and Maximus Ruler just may have their hooves full when Backtalk joins the fray. By Smarty Jones out of an Affirmed mare...his works have been sensational and rival Ron's times. But so far, I'm sticking with Ron the Greek and have taken notice of Dave in Dixie. I thought he ran exceptionally well in the Robert B. Lewis.

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Coldfacts — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 14:13:30 GMT

Steve,

I do not know if the Oklahoma bred colt Pleasant Storm has made it to your radar. He goes in the Southwest later and I think he merits attention. Below are some views on him by a reporter and his trainer Joe Petalin:

“Pleasant Storm remained undefeated in two starts when he closed from 10th to win the $60,000 Oklahoma Classics Juvenile on Nov. 22. He covered six furlongs in 1:10.80, one start after winning a maiden special weight at the same trip Oct. 17. Both races were at a distance less than optimum for Pleasant Storm.

"He's definitely going to be all two turns," said Joe Petalino, who trains Pleasant Storm. "I'm looking to stretch him out."

Petalino said Pleasant Storm's first distance test could come at Oaklawn. The track's initial route stakes for 3-year-olds is on Jan. 18, with the running of the $100,000 Smarty Jones at a mile. From there, the stakes build to the Arkansas Derby.

Pleasant Storm races for his breeder, Vickie Fixley. He is a son of the Pleasant Colony stallion Pleasant Tap.

"He's so big," Petalino said of Pleasant Storm. "He's almost 18 hands tall. He's a big 2-year-old. He towers me on level ground. I've got to look up at his withers. And he's got such a big stride to him”.

If this colt is really 18 hands and is capable of running 6F in 1:10 plus he is a potential monster. He is big, far striding with 1:10 speed and based on his trainers comments loaded with stamina. His sire Pleasant Tap remains one of the only horses in Breeder Cup history to run in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and Breeders Cup Classic. He was runner up on both occasions. Pleasant Tap destroyed Strike The Gold and A.P. Indy in the 1992 Jockey Gold Cup. A.P. Indy reversed the placing in the Breeders’ Cup Classic of the same year. Pleasant Tap best derby finisher was Tiago who finished either 6th or 7th and was 3rd in the Belmont. Could this Oklahoma bred colt he hiding in plain sight? Look for him to be closing hands over fist in the last furlong. Pleasant Tap was a quality racehorse and the Ribot line that has featured on the winners’ side of the derby chart twice is overdue. It is unthinkable that the first three finishers in a derby could go on the sire a winner of the great race. The 1992 derby was won by Unbridled. The runner up was Summer Squall and the third Place finisher was Pleasant Tap. Unbridled went on the sire 1996 derby winner Grindstone. Summer Squall went on to sire the 1999 derby winner Charismatic. Pleasant Tap now needs to sire a derby winner to seal the triple. It’s a long shot but strange history is made in the derby.

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Armaan — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 07:03:33 GMT

I have afeeling that fountain of youth wilsomewhat clear the derby market.Among the obvious horses I happen to like "Loookin at Lucky" and "Vale of York" simply beacuse they have proven g1 record. Hey Raven you might to wan to add Mendip's stable companion "Sahara Kingdom" to ypur list since he is more likely to represent Godolphin in the triple crown races. Sahara Kingdomabsolutely dominated his competition in both of his strts as a juvenile and he is nominated for the triple crown races.I know Mendip is also nominated and he was impressive last week at Meydan. But Saeed Bin Suroor said after the race that they have no ambitious plans for him.I think they will make that decision on the basis of the performane of their horses in the U.A.E and with three year olds like Vale of York, Al Zir and Passion for Gold in there stable I doubt that Mendip will run in that race.

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Raven — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 04:36:51 GMT

My derby list :

1. Drosselmeyer

2. Buddy's Saint

3. Super Saver

4. Rule

5. Ron The Greek

6. vale of York

7. Lookin at Lucky

8. Lentenor

9. Coracortado

10.Mendip

11.Interactif

12.American Lion

13.Dublin

14.Jackson Bend

15.Conveyance

16.Dryfly

17.Get My Fix

18.Eskendereya

19.Dave in Dixie

20.Tizchrome

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Raven — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 03:48:31 GMT

Do you think "get my fix" will join the Kentucky Derby 2010, because that horse have a potential basis from behind?

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Jason — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 02:53:27 GMT

Oak Motte hasn't worked since his last start, why would he make the list?

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Forbidden Apple — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 19:32:51 GMT

I am surprised at how poorly Tiz Chrome and Middle of the Night ran. I was most impressed by the closing finish of Uptowncharlybrown, he can win in the next stakes race at Tampa Bay Downs.

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

LDP — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 19:26:53 GMT

Forrbiden Apple,

12 furlongs is 12 furlongs regaurdless of the surface. Sometimes course conditions, flat vs hilly, fast/firm vs sloppy/heavy, must be taken into account, but 12 furlongs is 12 furlongs.

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Racingfan — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 18:15:36 GMT

I am wondering...how did a blog about this years Derby hopefuls become about slamming Mr Prospector?

Chuckles The Clown: have you read the book about Mr Prospector? I have and I do not find evidence about an inherent unsoundness in him. He did sustain some injuries but I believe his trainer Jimmy Croll's opinion to be correct since he was the one dealing with him day in and day out. The owner wanted him in the Derby and was forcing the trainer to point him there in spite of the trainers objections that he could not be ready in time. Croll, not only believed him to be capable of winning to 9 furlongs, but also stated he did NOT believe him to be unsound but rather a victim of bad timing and a career compromised by the rush to the Derby. Injuries happen and a horse being injured does not make him or her a "bad influence" on the breed!

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Coldfacts — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 13:19:25 GMT

Caracortado ran an impressive race but I think the runner up has a better prospect of winning the derby. At your convenience revisit the race and look at the stride on the Dave In Dixie who last race in October 2009. If he had a race under his belt he would have been sharper and no doubt closer to the pace. To get into contention he had to be used much earlier that than those ahead of him. Think he has more upside than Caracortado.

It is interesting to note the similarities between colt and the gelding. They were both produced from unraced broodmares. The dam of Caracortado was sired by Marias Mon a son of Wavering Monarch. Dave In Dixie’s dam was sired by Wavering Monarch. The dam of the talented but unfortunate 1993 Preakness Prairie Bayou was sired by Wavering Monarch.

I like to look at derby contenders from an historic angle. Where does Caracortado stack up against derby history?

SIRE: Cat Dream won only a maiden race and was retired after due to an injury. No derby winning stallion in the last 70 years has this profile. The only one that comes close is the imported and unraced Alibhia who sired the 1954 derby winner Determined. All other derby winning stallions has at a minimum won a graded race. It must be noted that Alibhia was a son of the great Hyperion whose sire line has a great record in the Triple Crown races. Cat Dream a son of Storm Cat is from a line that has a strained relationship with the Triple Crown races. None Strom Cat’ 100 sons have sired the winner of a Triple Crown race. It is possible for a stallion with only maiden victory and from the non performing Storm Cat line to produce a derby winner? I guess anything is possible but the prospect of Caracortado winning the derby is highly unlikely. Now, I must be careful as the 1933 Derby winner BROKERS TIP is the only horse to date whose only win was the Derby.

DAM: Mons Venus was unraced. Mining My Own the dam of Mine That Bird was unraced. Unraced dams producing back to back derby winner in this century is highly unlikely. Prior to Mining My Own, the previous unraced mare that produced a derby winner was Comely Nell dam of 1976 derby winner Bold Forbes (33 years) Again, I must be careful as between 1938 and 1949, seven possible eight of the Derby winners during this 11 years period were produce by unraced mares. With 25 to 30 thousand mares being bred in the US now, what are the chances of this occurring?

Nice gelding but not the likely 2010 derby winner.

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Raven — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 12:55:20 GMT

"Rule Time" at kentucky derby 2010 after he wins at Sam Davis. I think "Get My Fix" could also be nominated at Kentucky Derby 2010, that horse will come from behind, like "Mine That Bird"

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Coldfacts — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 12:07:35 GMT

Chuckles the Clown,

Let me bring some closure to this issue. I am a fan of sibling inbreeding. It does not matter whether it involves Mr. Prospector or any other prominent stallion. I mentioned Hear Ye Hear Ye because it was the first time had seen both the dam and the foal inbred to the same full brothers. It is just plain unusual. I was in no way promoting this breeding concept. The pedigrees of a number of great champions reflect sibling inbreeding. Steve did a piece on Damascus whose pedigree reflects inbreeding to full brothers. The pedigrees of the dams of Ferdinand, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Big Brown all reflect inbreeding to siblings.

There is another 3YO whose pedigree reflect sibling inbreeding. The name of the colt is Royal Paddy. He is inbred to Northern Dancer and his full sister Arctic Dancer. I have placed him on my watch list because I am a fan of this type of inbreeding. If I were wagering on the day that Hear Ye Hear Ye ran in that race I would have made a handsome return. I stick with what I believe in.

On the subject of Mr. Prospector, your conclusion that he is bad for the sport and the breed is being laughed at in all quarters. How can the most successful stallion line in the history of the Triple Crown be bad? Are suggesting that the sire lines that are less successful are better for the sport and game? There is no line that provides a significant speed influence that does not have soundness issues. The Thoroughbred was not designed to carry weight on its back and run at 30 plus MPH. Those with more speed will be more susceptible to injuries. In spite of what you conclude are serious soundness issues with the Mr. Prospector siring line, it continues to provide the largest percentage of the runners in the Triple Crown races.

Here are some approximate worldwide figures up 2006 for the number of sons at stud for stallions below:

Storm Cat 114

A.P. Indy 54

Danzig 72

Mr. Prospector 78

Now some could have died or pensioned since then. If the Mr. Prospector sire line is so brittle, why does it provide most of the TC runners each year when the other three prominent stallions have equivalent or larger stallion roster? Could it mean that they are more brittle? We are all entitled to our opinions but not the facts. The facts indicate that the soundness issues you are highlighting are not as extreme as you have concluded. I appreciate your input on this issue.

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Zookeeper — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 07:15:41 GMT

sherpa,

Caracortado was very, very impressive this afternoon. As a Californian, I always get a big kick out of a Cal Bred winning an important race in open company. He may not be royally bred, his jockey and trainer are not superstars but he sure showed them how it's done. Also, he won his first race on DIRT at Fairplex. One more check in the plus column: his dam is by Maria's Mon... not too shabby! :)

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Footlick — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 05:11:43 GMT

ColdFacts and Chuckles- I think the Europeans showed us how to breed Mr Prospector for distance. They were the first successful breeders of distance with him as a sire, I think. I feel there are many horses to blame for the fragility of our breed, pinning it on Mr Prospector, Chuckles, is unfair. Northern Dancer didn't help as well as my favorite, Buckpasser. The fact that some unsound horses became very prolific is just the nature of breeding. The fact that breeding for speed in the US is the fashion doesn't help. We had discarded stamina breeding for milers didn't help either. Europe used the brilliant Raise a Native blood to their advantage while crossing it with favorable stamina blood. Just my opinion, not trying to preach or lecture, if it comes across like that.

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

sherpa — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 01:26:07 GMT

Steve, imvho you're going to need to move Caracortado up into your Dozen. He sure looked like the Real Deal in the Lewis, rating beautifully and winning comfortably with ears pricked. Beautiful stride to him. Coming off the track, he was almost bucking...like he'd just done a 4f work and wanted to go around again. Showed a lot of maturity against major competition in the Tiz's and DinD. He has got to be one to watch, even if he IS a CA horse. ;-)

I do hope Machowsky won't mess with his jockey...they appear to be a great team.

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Chuckles the Clown — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 00:47:49 GMT

Coldfacts,

Methinks you're fixating.

100% of all Triple Crown Races have been won by descendents of the Beverly Turk, The Goldophin Barb or the Darley Arabian. You could run up a large tally selecting any horse in the remote pedigree. Alydar sired more Triple Crown winners with far fewer foals.

The fact is that there is a lot of Mr Prospector blood in the breed and the breed is all the weaker for it. Starts are down, injuries are up.

If you want to think that extensive inbreeding to Mr Prospector is how a horse will get to the Derby, be my guest. I bet against such a horse today at Tampa Bay and won. In defense of Uptowncharlybrown, he was running at the end but the winner was giving him 2 lengths. You'll have to figure out what that means.

www.pedigreequery.com/uptowncharlybrown

Mr Prospector brought speed to his matings. Generally what the breeders did was breed him to stamina mares, cross their fingers and hope the foals didn't come unglued too early. When you make a point to inbreed to Mr Prospector you are playing a dangerous high stakes game.

By the way, Mr Prospector was not the broodmare sire of Barbaro. That was Carson City. Another brilliant horse prone to throw ouchy get.

FYI, they ran Barbaro on Grass to begin his career and gave him lots of time between races. There were handicappers that believed Barbaro was being nursed along and they bided their time until they could catch him having to run the Triple Crown schedule of Big Race, two weeks rest, Big Race, three weeks rest, Big Race. I was one of those handicappers.

Good Luck with your Theory.

CtC

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Forbidden Apple — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 19:02:05 GMT

Hawkster set a world record on the turf, you can not compare turf times to dirt times. I was only knocking Dublin, not Afleet Alex. My point was that breeding is not as predictable as some make it out to be. Not every horse by Afleet Alex is going to be a 2 turn horse because he won the Belmont Stakes.

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Alex PB — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 17:12:05 GMT

Forbidden Apple:

Acorrection in emphasis is needed here.

Dublin nor any of the other Afleet Alex runners are specialists at 7F because of AA's brilliance at shorter distances as a 2yo. And although Tim Ritchey did a great job with AA in the 3yo classics, the chief reason for AA's great success there belongs to his dam Maggy Hawk, whose sire Hawkster owns the world record for 12 furlongs (yes, lower than Secretariat's Belmont, on the turf) and whose female family includes Hawaii (BMS) and Princequillo. AA promises to be a source of stamina in the breed, not a source of sprinters.

re: February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Coldfacts — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 16:46:15 GMT

Steve, a couple of the horses that did not make the Future Wager cut that you have highlighted are very interesting. There are some that have not made your secondary list that I find surprising.

Ziggy's Stardust: He has the pedigree profile of a derby winner. He is bread along the same cross as 2001 derby winner Monarchos. They were both sired by 1995 Champion Juvenile Marias Mon. Their dams were both sired by sons of the great Northern Dancer. Mornarchos dam sire Dixieland Band was also the dam sire of Street Sense. Ziggy's Stardust’s dam sire Storm Bird was dam sire of Belmont winner BIRDSTONE and Derby & Belmont winner THUNDER GULCH. Ziggy's Stardust’s pedigree has an added feature that I like immensely. Both he and his dam have no inbreeding in their first five generations. Both TC winner Secretariat and Derby winner War Emblem and their dams had no inbreeding in their first five generations. I know he is still a maiden but I will be following him keenly.

Nacho Friend: He was sired by Friends Lake a stallion I regard as one of A.P. Indy’s best son at stud. Friends Lake like his sire A.P. Indy was produced from a broodmare whose sire was a HOY. In the case of A. P. Indy’s his Weekend Surprise was sired by Secretariat. Friends Lake dam was sires by Spend A Buck who is responsible for one of the five fastest time for the derby. Nacho Friend dam line is not on the derby chart. However his dam sire Kennedy Road was a champion 2&3YO in Canada and has Triple Crown winning sires Gallant Fox (Omaha ) and Sir Gallahad (Gallant Fox) in his 4th & 5th generations. My expectations for Friends Lake are high and I will be following this colt as well.

Boulder Creek: I am a fan of his sire Tapit whose brilliance was not displayed enough because of unsoundness. His dam line represents the most successful in TC history. His dam sire Regal Classic is a million dollar earning grandson of Northern dancer. Eight of Northern Dancer’s sons have been broodmares sires of winners of 13 TC races. Four of his grandsons have been broodmare sires of the winners of 5 TC Races. Regal Classic is son of Vice Regent whose son Deputy Minister has been broodmare sire of Jasil, Rags To Riches, Curlin and Sarava. His third dam Crooked Lady was sires by 1954 derby winner Determined who sired 1962 derby winner Decidedly. Tapit has been siring some very nice runners and this colt if from a powerful dam line. He has a lot upsides and merit following.

You have listed neither Oak Motte nor The Director. If Uh Oh Bango made your list Oak Motte should as well. I am of the opinion Oak Motte ran a better ran than both Rule and Uh Oh Bango in the Delta Jackpot. He left the gates awkwardly and was very wide around the first turn on a speed favoring track. In spite of being out paced badly he d rallied to get within a respectable three to four lengths of the winner and runner up Rule and Uh Oh Bango. The Director was a useful second in his last start but has the pedigree that has derby written all over it. His sire Mr.Greely is respected on the European circuit and has sired some outstanding horses. He is from The Mr. P has line that needs no introduction. His dam was sired by Deputy Minister whose broodmares have produced the likes of Curlin and Rags To Riches. His second dam is the Seattle Slew mare Solar Slew whose minor achievement foaling the incomparable Cigar. The Director is well bred and could come to life anytime now.

Lastly, is Fly By Phil off the derby trail? His sire is a $3.6M Mr. Prospector colt. His dam was sired by Deputy Minister and he has a record of (5 Starts: 3-2-0, $101,099) He has a victory in the Tropical Park Derby [G3,Crc,9FT] A colt who has won a 9F albeit on turf and who has not finished out of the top two in five starts cannot

make a supplementary list and maidens do. Confused!