February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 05:18:16 GMT

CARLOS IN CALI,

Let Odysseus put away Uptowncharlybrown in the Tampa bay Derby before I'll take a second look at him. So far it seems that we are only agreeing on the chances of Ron The Greek as a good Derby contender if the pace scenario suits him. Good closer as he looks though, he may not be able to peg back the likes of Rules and Super Saver (don't even think about "Esken"). Rules toys with horses on the front end and refuses to be passed in the lane. Super Saver flashes sprinters fractions and is still able to find another gear when asked in the stretch, therefore the Todd Squad could quite conceivably have the Derby all to themselves when they straighten for home. Wake up "van winkle"!

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Carlos in Cali — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 17:51:50 GMT

Buddy's Saint deserves a mulligan,he's better than that plus he got pounded.Eskendereya's win was visually impressive,but I'm not jumping on his bandwagon.The race resembled a merry-go-round throughout except when the surprising pace setter stopped running.And Pletcher's horses always perform well in the preps...too much too soon.

I mentioned that Discreetly Mine would be sent to the lead and he'd be tough to catch,but the pedestrian-like splits he set was surprising to say the least.I'm not giving up on RtheG just yet,he obviously needs a faster pace to chase,but he also needs to be in closer contention early on.Maybe the addition of blinkers will do the job along with a jockey upgrade and if he's still around for the Derby,the pace will definitely be to his liking.Stay tuned..

Conveyance ran lights-out in the Southwest while setting fast fractions and almost paid the price down the lane.Gutsy score which might serve him well as he continues on the Derby trail,other's think he might regress a little in his next outing.Dublin's comeback was pretty good considering he broke a tad bit slow & had to go wide around the far turn.The sustained move he made looked even more impressive as the field started to back-up after chasing those quick splits.He run a helluva' race but,understandably flattened out the final 1/16th.These 2 should lock horns once again in the coming preps @ Oaklawn.

Ranagulzion:

Calm down & hold your horses(literally),I'm afraid you're setting yourself up for a rather rude awakening come the 1st Sat. in May.As of now,most of Pletcher's horses are up on or near the lead types which will be their downfall in the Derby.Stay thirsty my overly-caffeinated friend.

Odysseus will be the household name come this spring/summer/fall.

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 20:15:42 GMT

Zarvona,

The writing is on the wall. We are loooking at a Pletcher Derby this year. Pletcher detractors are going to be having nightmares throughout this years Triple Crown races I think. I'll be interested to hear him comment on what has changed in his approach to his Derby aspirants this year.

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Slew — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 18:13:23 GMT

For 2009, their percentages are equal. But Calvin ranks 10th, while Lezcano ranks 19th. Nothing changed the fact that Lezcano made an error in judgement in trying to run Buddy's Saint through a hole that didn't exist. His skill however, did help to prevent Buddy from going down when it looked imminent that he might.

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

zarvona — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 17:36:36 GMT

Hey, out there!

Does anyone have a line on what the following horses are currently up to:

"Pounced";

"Dixie Band";

"Outlaw Man";

"Excessive Passion";

"Hollinger";

"Twirling Candy"; or

"Fast Alex"...

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Jason — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 17:36:28 GMT

Slew,

Where are you getting your numbers? 2009 Jose Lezcano won 227 races,Borel won 140. But I still don't base my reasoning on wins, Borel wins races at Churchill and Oaklawn, nowhere else. You don't here about Borel at Saratoga where he stays all summer, and he doesn't make much noise at Keeneland. Lezcano wins at the best tracks on a daily basis. Not to mention he is one of the best turf riders in the nation as well.

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

zarvona — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 17:18:40 GMT

P.S. Seems like little mention is being given to "Fly Downs'" victory over "First Dude" and "Colizeo" even though a strangely small ass field!!! Possibly another to keep an eye on! Aye ???

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

zarvona — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 16:55:44 GMT

lol @ Small field for the Derby??? You don't think the owners want to smooze and drink Mint Juleps with the other owners and their horse in the mix even if he is at 99-1??? Do their really care whether the have a shot at the purse money???

Gee , anyone who drops out scared of another horse will just open the door for Pletcher to get his entire entourage and 15 owners together for the "Pletcher Derby"!!

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Slew — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 15:01:02 GMT

PS, I'll add...Borel over 4500 wins. Lezcano 144 wins. YES, Borel is better than Lezcano.

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Slew — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 14:52:49 GMT

On the rail, Borel is the best. Did you see him with Miss Izella and Mine that Bird? It was still Buddy who first bumped Aikenite while there was still room on the rail. After that, Buddy's Saint was like a pinball. And they were already into the first turn, not just out of the gate, where I might expect jostling.

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Jason — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 14:11:47 GMT

Slew,

Things happen out of the gate, Lezcano didn't really do anything wrong, you can't always get the perfect trip. Saying that Borel is basically better than Lezcano is down right ridiculous.

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Slew — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 13:33:51 GMT

Kentucky Derby usually has large fields; it's the Preakness and Belmont that seem to thin out the competition. Aikenite was bumped x2 by Buddy's Saint, but Buddy (thanks to a bad ride) ricocheted back and forth between Aikenite and the rail about 4x's. If Lezcano could ride like Borel, he might have squeezed through the first time, but he went a little wide and bumped Aikenite...then the rail, then Aikenite again when the hole closed...and then the rail again. I think it really knocked the wind out him, which might explain why he did so poorly. Aikenite was not as abused, and ran a better race. I'm not about to count out Buddy's Saint, or even Ron the Greek. As spectacular as Conveyance was, I think Dublin earned top spot because his late run was superb. Eskendereya has also taken one of the top 5 spots, but I found Discretely Mine unimpressive. I like Dave in Dixie much better. We're so fortunate to have so many

fantastic colts and fillies to watch this year...my cup runneth over!

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 03:45:29 GMT

JASON,

I do understand horsmen and Kentucky Derby history very well. I do believe that if Eskendereya has another runaway victory in the Florida Derby we will not be seeing the use of the auxillary gate to load a twenty horse field. I think the last time that we had a Derby field without the use of the auxillary gate was in 1997 when Silver Charm, Pulpit, Free House and Capt. Budget were the stand out horses. Back in the glorious seventies the Derby fields were smaller for obvious reasons ...Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid. Perhaps another tour d'force by Eskendereya in the Florida Derby, Rule in the Arkansas Derby and Super Saver in the Wood Memorial will scare all pretenders away. Lets watch and see.

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Forbidden Apple — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 02:34:35 GMT

Yes, I am new on these blogs,so what? I have eyes and ears, work with horses, and have been watching the KY Derby closely for the past 25 years. A small field in he KY Derby is just as ridiculous as saying he might be a Triple Crown candidate that resembles Secretariat. Secretariat is easily my favorite horse of all time and Eskendereya is far from being at that level. You can disrespect me, but leave Secretariat out of it. I loved Buddy's Saint yesterday even though I thought he would not be near 100% in a prep race. If he won I would not be mentioning him as a Triple Crown candidate. I agree that talent can be predicted early on, but everyone watched what you watched yesterday. I apologize for linking you with the likes of Itssoeasy and others that are in love with Pletcher's regime.

I will stand by my opinion that Conveyance is a serious threat to any speedy Pletcher horse. And I completely agree with Coldfacts, the KY Derby seems to always have a blistering pace. War Emblem is the last front runner that I remember winning the KY Derby. I prefer horses that come from a little bit off the pace and make their own race, like Point Given, Barbaro, Big Brown. I admire your early prediction on Eskendereya, but keep an Open Mind.

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Line from David — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 02:19:56 GMT

The average opening half mile in the derby over the past ten years has been :46 and change. I think that this derby could be even faster with front-runners like Discreetly Mine and Conveyance in the mix. I think that sets up well for horses like Eskendereya and Dave in Dixie.

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Kelly Bold As Love — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 02:16:10 GMT

I think that Dave in Dixie's sub 30 second final 3/8's in the Robert B. Lewis makes him a top five derby candidate. With that kind of closing ability, I think that the extra distance will only help as the preps get longer.

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Jason — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 23:58:08 GMT

Ranagulzion,

You actually think the Derby is gonna be a small field because Eskendereya had an impressive win, you must be not understand horseman very well.

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 19:59:17 GMT

FORBIDDEN APPLE,

You must be relatively new on here or you wouldn't be suggesting that I'm a "Pletcher groupie" as you call it. I was perhaps the first one, a season or two ago, to chide Todd Pletcher for his apalling record in the Derby and I took him to task last year over his "rabbit" idea with Dunkirk vs Quality Road (trained by Jimmy Jerkins in the Florida Derby) so speak easy my friend. Also, I have NOT YET said that Eskendereya will win the Triple Crown but honestly I've thought about him in that way, based mainly on pedigree, since his impressive performance in the Pilgrim Stakes as a 2YO. Reacting to his FOY tour de force I only said that his galloping action reminded me of the late great Secretariat and gave me goose bumps as he squandered the opposition. Regardless of your dislike for Gulfstream, this colt acts on grass and dirt effectively and has scored at Belmont Park.

However I'm on record on these blogs as suggesting that he has the pedigree to go all the way, assuming the talent is there. At that time I was very high on D'Funnybone but was in doubt about that one's stamina from a pedigree stand point (notwithstanding that it was 2YOs being observed and analysed). You see FA many brilliant thoroughbreds can be spotted from very early in their careers. Some are even spotted in terms of their disposition and attitudes (intangibles I admit) on the farms by people who have an eye for the extraordinary, so don't be so cynical. You may be a hindsight specialist but there are many racing connoiseurs with tremendous foresight. We're not always right and as you should know the thoroughbred is quite a fickle wonder so lets give and take a little.

BTW I do agree that Conveyance looks special too but he may be one dimensional in his running style and have stamina limitations whereas Eskendereya has already shown ability to come from well of the pace and posseses great tactical speed. With much scope for improvement according to Todd Pletcher and Johnny Velasquez, we might see a relatively small field facing him in the Derby if he blows away the opposition again in the Florida Derby. Think again Pal.

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

zarvona — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 18:59:59 GMT

Ok, when one is wrong, it is good for the soul to confess he was wrong. I was wrong about “Eskendereya”.

To my defense, one might remember that I once said earlier, …that…“with all the “Storm Cat” breds out this year that maybe one might break through”. Of the horses and races run as preps this weekend, “Eskendereya’s” was the most impressive. Double bred to “Bold Ruler”; “Northern Dancer”; and “Hail to Reason”, with a little “Blushing Groom” and “Raise a Native” thrown into the mix, “Eskendereya” may give “Storm Cat”--( a dismal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 , etc. and etc. in the Derby !!!!)-- his best chance to break out of that pattern since “Blue Grass Cat”. Hopefully, this will also not be another one time “Bellamy Road” run. In any event, he has marked himself as the favorite in the Florida Derby if that is his chosen route.

Other reasonable wins or runs that were mildly impressive were: “Connemero” with his 1:51 + 1 1/8 victory; “Conveyance” the ever consummate; and even “Dublin” charging to the end making up ground after lung surgery and his layoff. Am I still wondering now how far “D’Funnybone” can go??? But, it was nice to see him nearing some form again after the mild winter layoff, even though I admit that I was secretly routing for the Virginia bred “A Little Warm” who may still grow. And, is Pletcher really attempting to get stakes earnings for eight or even more Derby qualifiers??? Maybe they should make a rule and limit a trainer to the number of entries in the Derby allowed??

I suppose the biggest let down to the fans and the bettors this Saturday was that of “Buddy’s Saint’s” meltdown. Why was there no jockey’s objection??. was my first question. But, if Aikenite can come back and run 3rd after the rearward confrontation, what does that say about “Buddy’s Saint” or the jockey??? And, these boys better get use to ‘rubbing and racing’ cause the Derby gate is a traffic zoo stampede jam. Speaking of the gate, I don’t remember seeing so many in one weekend having trouble getting out of the gate. Don’t they train these runners that first they have to GET OUT OF THE GATE!???!!

The “Discreetly Mine’s” Risen Star win was a mild shock, but the slow time and the fact that no one in that field could ever even challenge the two front runners,--he and “Tempted to Tapit”,--that took the early lead as expected, says tons about the overall weakest at this point within the rest of that field. Hopefully, some few will mature from within that field,--maybe before the Belmont???,--like “Drosselmeyer” with his skyward Tomlinson distance rating so high, and etc.

“Eskendereya’s” 1:12.41; 1:36.54; 1:48.87; was also mildly reasonably impressive, considering he was not pressured at all in the stretch, but it surely makes one go back and think about “Westshore” by “Saint Liam”-((s.d.s. “Quiet American”-“Fappiano”/“Alexi Dancer-A.P. Indy”-((d.d.s.s. Nijinsky (Can.))); with his gutsy finish of 1:13.12; 1:37.12; 1:48.78; in comparison--and another Early Derby Nominee I might add,--and that close--(though on the Turf!!!)--to get his 3 year old ‘MAIDEN WIN” out of the way in the earlier preliminary run back in Race #5 !!

Thusly, are we yet awaiting still yet another dozen or more newcomers??? And, just how many others will make the--at the moment soon required--career change and come off the grass and start earning the needed Stakes required bankroll to even get cinsdieration and into the Derby mix?? How about you “Doubles Partner”?

Awe, one weekend of major preps out of the way and behind us and March still left to open even wider our eyes.

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Bloodline Bob — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 17:07:41 GMT

STEVE,THE WINNERS OF THE FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH + EL CAMINO REAL BOTH HAVE A SIRE WITH THE DATE OF BIRTH IN THE YEAR "1997"(GIANT'S CAUSEWAY).MY # 1 PICK ON YOUR LIST ON FEB.10th is Esendereya.

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

sherpa — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 16:54:48 GMT

Slew, funny you should mention the Fair Grounds lead pony. The "pony" who caught my attention was the one who led Eskendereya off the track at GS. Wow! also huge, prancing & bobbing his head - you'd have thought he was the winner! I'm thinking that horse would be magnificent in dressage.

Watched so many race videos yesterday....have to say the one that stood out most to me was Connemara's run at Golden Gate. The way he moved out from last and circled the field was Zenyatta-esque, just beautiful! A perfect trip by Russell Baze. Is GG's surface Tapeta? I hadn't paid much attention to Connemara before but will sure do so now.

D'Funnybone has muscled up nicely since last I saw him as a 2yo; hope to see him at more distance next race.

Derby-wise, I thought Dublin's placing bodes better than Conveyance's win in the SW. JMHO.

oh, and Helen Belen. Would love to know where that name came from! We'll be seeing more of that filly, betcha.

Lastly: Bob Black Jack rocks!

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Soemthingroyal — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 16:40:24 GMT

Ranagulzion-

I agree with your comment about Eskendereya's low neck running action. Watching the slow motion replay remind me so much of Secretariat. With Eskendereya's impeccible balanced pedigree, he should stretch out nicely.

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Forbidden Apple — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 15:21:36 GMT

Wow, the next Secretariat! Triple Crown winner! You must be another Pletcher groupie that thinks Quality Road will be horse of the year. Of course Eskendereya looked good yesterday, but lets wait and see how he does with some added pace pressure and away from Gulfstream. I do not like the Gulfstream surface and give no merit to fast times. How do you think Eskendereya will run when Conveyance is looking him in the eye?

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Slew — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 12:52:42 GMT

On a side note...there was one lead "pony" at the Fair Grounds (and I loosely use the term pony) who was a dark bay who was HUGE! He was bigger than any horse racing there yesterday. Does any one know who he is????

re: February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Slew — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 12:31:34 GMT

After a full day of watching races, yelling at the TV, and scaring my sedentary cats, all I can say is "WOW"! FOY -I have to note that as well as he did, Jackson Bend looked like a little girl playing dress up in Mom's clothes wearing a saddle cloth that looked way too big on him. Eskendereya was awesome, Jackson Bend (like the little engine that could....but couldn't) ran gamely...just not enough yesterday. Buddy's Saint needs a new jockey. I'm not about to count him out...he had a terrible ride. I'm hoping he's okay after some terrible decisions by his jockey. Risen Star...good race by Discretely Mine and Tempted to Tapit, but I honestly cannot yet count out Ron the Greek. He remains in my top 5. (I have high hopes). SW...Wow...between Conveyance and Dublin, it was easy to not notice all of the other contenders. However I did notice Mission Impazzible who also ran well. (In a prior race...please someone tell Wallace how to pronounce New Madrid who came in 2nd. It's not nice to dis a Rock Hard Ten baby...especially one that looks like daddy). Those really close races between Karelian and Gio Ponti...then another thriller with Jody Slew and Quiet Temper were awesome. Finally...welcome back Bob Black Jack.