February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 02:47:33 GMT

FORBIDDEN APPLE,

I should have mentioned that my mind is very open to a few off-the-radar "non-Todd Squad" horses such as Laus Deo, Fly By Phil, Backtalk and Worth A Buck but any of these will have to show phenomenal improvement to have a real shot (although the potential has certainly been spoted). Rick Dutrow's Radiohead won his race with authority this past weekend and acts like a horse that could go longer but so did his sire Johanesburg (a Derby flop grandson of Storm Cat)). I think this one is going to be an outstanding miler but not quite a Derby horse

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 02:16:31 GMT

FORBIDDEN APPLE,

I wish you best of luck with your odds and other horses that you fancy in the Derby. The side shows are going to get very interesting as the race approaches but there will only be one winner. I scrutinize pedigrees and performances carefully before making up my mind about any particular horse for the Derby and even when my mind is made up I still reserve room for change or adjustment as new revelation unfolds on the track. So far I see nothing to change my mind about Eskendereya's glowing prospects of winning the Derby and possibly the Triple Crown and of a Todd Pletcher trifecta in the Derby with Super Saver and Rules. Caracortado looks dangerous and if D'Funnybone stays (which I doubt) he could be the "fly in the ointment" for Pletcher.

Regarding geldings, you have both misunderstood and misrepresented my comments which were addressed to Coldfacts about the comparative pedigrees of Eskendereya and Cardiff Giant. I never said geldings are inferior horses and never could have said so because I don't believe that. I suggested that if Cardiff Giant's pedigree was deemed to be as royal as Eskendereya's his connections would not have gelded him, for reasons that should be quite obvious. I am aware that horses are often gelded to stabilize their temperament and improve their disposition for racing but mostly, any promising horse with great conformation and pedigree 'to die for' (like Eskendereya) would not be gelded because of their potential stud value assuming a reasonable racing career. Let's put it this way: being a gelding does not make Cardiff Giant an inferior horse compared to "Esken" in terms of performance, his pedigree etc. does. I'm not say that he can't win the Derby. He's an improving colt that could be the next "Mine that Bird" but not in my view. Not this year.

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Forbidden Apple — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 15:40:20 GMT

Ranagulzion, keep an open mind on the KY Derby trail. You are so flattered by Pletcher and Eskendereya that you have your blinkers on when it comes to any other horse. I respect your bold opinion of a Triple Crown Winner and your other bold prediction calling Quality Road a HOY candidate in Feb. But now you are saying that geldings are inferior horses?! Tell that to Mine That Bird, Funny Cide, Clyde Van Dusen, Paul Jones, Exterminator, Old Rosebud, Macbeth II, Apollo, and Vagrant. I just made a quick check, and I counted 9 geldings that have won the KY Derby, please correct me if I am wrong. Keep spreading the word of Triple Crown candidate on Eskendereya far and wide, this kind of talk will give me better odds on any other horse in the race. Thank you.

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

RiverCitySmitty — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 13:18:45 GMT

Also, Backtalk made a successful return to the track with a win Friday night at Delta. He was bounced around a bit despite a small field and made up three lengths in the stretch over a sealed sloppy track. I`m not sure if the La Derby or Rebel is next in store for him, but he may re-emerge from off the radar.

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

RiverCitySmitty — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 13:14:47 GMT

Coldfacts: Okey doke

With the horrible weather SA has been having this meet and the all weather`s inability to drain, how many trainers will go East or Midwest for their next derby prep? (BTW, a dirt surface may have had the same potponements) I think the Sunland race will draw a few as will the Rebel and Gotham.

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Sun, 28 Feb 2010 22:25:11 GMT

COLDFACTS,

Quantitative statistics is one thing but qualitative analysis is quite another. Comparing the pedigrees of Cardif Giant to Eskendereya is like chalk to cheese. The only things these two have in common are their chesnut coats and triple-crown underachieving grandsire Storm Cat.

I don't wish to berate Cardiff Giant (he is a hard-knocking, underrated gelding that is still improving) but it should be superfluous for me to point out to you that, with Yankee Gentleman as his sire, if his pedigree was anywhere near as royal as Eskendereya's he would not have been gelded. Of course with inbreeding to Tom Fool and Northern Dancer within the first five generations he has classic pedigree but that stamina-limiting Storm Cat influence has to raise a question mark over whether he will truly see out the Derby distance.

No such question lingers over Eskendereya on account of the influence of Giant's Causeway (I have previously argued that he is the exception among Storm Cat's sons as a definite source of stamina). Therefore try again Coldfacts. You came up way short this time.

RiverCitySmitty,

Let us agree to postpone further rumbling over the identity of this years Kentucky Derby winner and how the race will unfold until after the Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby and Wood Memorial. At that time I'll give you my top four picks and be interested in seeing your top four. BTW I too had Giacomo in 2005 as my fourth choice (Bellamy Road, High Fly, Wilko and Giacomo). His win was no surprise to me and avenged his sire,Holy Bull's inexplicable loss in 1994

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

RiverCitySmitty — Sun, 28 Feb 2010 14:10:02 GMT

Ranagulzion,

We shall see in abt. 2 mos. Horses are individuals and cannot be anointed the next best ever based on what their sires/broodmares accomplished. With the abundance of speed this year and the fact that several will likely get posts that`ll compromise their usual style, I`ll be sticking with my upset prediction. Current logic obviously points to most on the top 12 list, but they aren`t running today and my thinking is that a few unmentioned names will have a say in this year`s derby. As far as dreaming, not too many single digit odds winners have had roses draped over them so why not go for value. I had Giacamo and all the other closers in his race after throwing out all the speed horses in that race. I`ll do the same again and hopefully cash another "dream" ticket.

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Caracortado — Sun, 28 Feb 2010 07:55:19 GMT

Well first of all Caracortado has proven he can rate and win......second he is bred to win long distances and being by Storm Cat and Marias Mon he can show that winning is his natural ability. The San Felipe will come up and let see if Looking at Lucky can catch Caracortado.....

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Coldfacts — Sun, 28 Feb 2010 05:27:13 GMT

Ranagulzion,

“Now Coldfacts, tell me if there is any 3YO in this year’s crop with a more stellar, blue-blooded, Derby qualifying, Triple-Crown-threatening pedigree than Eskendereya”

Try Cardiff Giant:

Dam sire – Stop The Music – He was dam sire of 2005 Derby winner Giacomo. Stop The Music sire Hail To Reason was sire of 1967 Derby winner Proud Clarion and was grandsire of derby winners Sunny’s Halo and Sunday Silence.

Second Dam Sire – Jacinto - He was dam sire of 1982 Derby winner Gato Del Sol. Jacinto was sired by Bold Ruler. Bold Ruler his sons, grandson and great grandsons have sired 8 derby winners.

Fourth Dam sire – Tom Fool - He was sire of 1958 Derby & Preakness winner Tim Tam. He was also dam sire of 1975 Derby winner Foolish Pleasure.

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Zookeeper — Sun, 28 Feb 2010 05:17:25 GMT

RiverCitySmitty,

"...but most often they do not transfer their plastic ability to the real stuff."

That kind of statement sets my teeth on edge because it is simply not true. Case in point, the 2009 Kentucky Derby results:

1) Mine That Bird successful on synthetics in Canada, transferred his ability to dirt very well.

2) Pioneer of the Nile being 2nd in the KD is nothing to sneeze at.

3) Musket Man, best finish of 15 "dirt" horses.

4) Papa Clem, another synthetics horse that ran well.

5) Chocolate Candy, one more synthetics horse that bested 14 of the 15 "dirt" horses.

The only synthetics horse that bombed was Mr. Hot Stuff. Of the 14 "dirt" horses, other than Musket Man, the best finish was 6th.

There is a big difference between a horse who has raced exclusively on synthetics and a horse who is a synthetics specialist. The first one, although unproven on dirt, may very well transfer his ability to a dirt track. The second one has demonstrated that his preferred surface is synthetics.

I'm not defending synthetics, I'm simply illustrating the falacy that is being repeated over and over again, no matter what the facts indicate.

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Coldfacts — Sun, 28 Feb 2010 02:55:10 GMT

Ranagulzion,

“Todd Pletcher's year to win the Derby and score an unprecedented trifecta on the first Saturday in May 2010”

You have posted this statement before and I was of the opinion that you were joking. However, it appears you are serious. A trainer that has never won the derby will suddenly account for the first three past the post. Your ambitions for him knows no bounds. Let me give you a little encouragement. In 1996 Todd Pletcher’s mentor D.W. Lukas started 5 horses in the derby and three of them finished in the top six.

1st Grindstone

3rd Prince Of Thieves

6th Editors Note

Lukas was first and third in the 1995 Derby with Thunder Gulch & Timber Country. He was also first and third in the 1999 Derby with Charismatic and Cat Thief. Now, if the mentor can finish first and third 3 times, the brilliant student with the big spending clients should be able to eclipse the teacher. (Old men dream, dreams and young men see visions) What was the result when the student started 5 horses in a derby?

Circular Quay - winner of the Louisiana Derby (finished 5th)

Any Given Saturday - winner of the Sam Davis, 2nd Tampa Bay Derby & 3rd Wood Memorial (finished 8th)

Sam P - 2nd Robert B. Lewis S. & 3rd Santa Anita Derby (finished 9th)

Scat Daddy - Winner of the Florida Derby, Fountain Of Youth S; 3rd Holy Bull S. (finished 19th)

Cowtown Cat - Winner of the Illinois Derby, Gotham S; 3rd Swale S. (finished 20th)

It appears Mr. Lukas did not teach Mr. Pletcher everything or just may be Mr. Pletcher was not paying attention in the classes on how to win the derby.

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Sun, 28 Feb 2010 01:12:48 GMT

RiverCitySmitty,

Keep dreaming. The forwardly placed stalkers will prevail in this years Derby and one special one from among them will win it.

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Venceremos — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 19:25:26 GMT

I don't think the Derby winner is in this list. Not criticizing you for picking this group because they're logical. Just think it's somebody under the radar again. Not a 50/1 shot, more like a 10 to 20/1. He'll have been hitting the board somewhere but not winning enough to get the media's notice.

This prediction is part hunch, part history. All the name horses have a problem and that leads to an upset more often than not.

Go down this list and you'll find something amiss in all these guys, some unproven on dirt, some have suspect pedigrees, some will have too few preps, some will have too long layoffs, at least one can't handle getting bumped around....it's last year revisited.

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

RiverCitySmitty — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 10:56:30 GMT

I won`t be playing any horse on derby day who hasn`t run on a real dirt track. Someone may run a big race, but most often they do not transfer their plastic ability to the real stuff. I don`t see how Caracortado fans can claim he has proven himself on dirt citing a 4 furlong maiden claiming win at a county fair meet as evidence. Sooo many front runners. Sooo many Pletcher front runners. I won`t be playing anyone who may remotely be involved with early or backstretch pace. Sorry Todd, most of your horses will be tossed and the curse will continue despite having half the field @ CD. The winner will come from off again and will be from one of the following: Drosselmeyer, Dublin, Stay Put, Fly Down, Backtalk, Ron the Greek or Aikenite. Shades of Giacamo down the stretch at Louisville.

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 03:08:18 GMT

COLDFACTS,

Let me challenge you to take another look at the Derby-winner-producing influences of the outstanding members of Eskedereya's tail female family.

1)Seattle Slew whom you've used to condemn Eskendereya's chances of winning the Derby has been close up in the pedigrees of derby-winners Swale and Funny Cide.

2)Alydar has been the sire of derby-winners Strike The Gold and Alysheba.

3)Northern Dancer's prowess as a Derby-winning influence, I know you wouldn't dispute. He is close up on the Dam side of Big Brown, Street Sense, Monarchos and Fusaichi Pegasus.

4)Ribot, the undefeated European (in 16 starts)and two-time Arc D'triomphe winner, has been close-up in the pedigrees of Kentucky Derby winners Street Sense, Funny Cide, Go For Gin and Pleasant Colony.

5) Cosmah the outstanding half-sister to Northern Dancer's dam Natalma, has been close up in the pedigree of Sunday Silence.

Now Coldfacts, tell me if there is any 3YO in this years crop with a more stellar, blue-blooded, Derby qualifying, Triple-Crown-threatening pedigree than this Todd squad monster colt,Eskendereya. I figure that his beautiful chesnut coat is coming from his sire's family, perhaps Secretariat or Blushing Groom and that push-button accereration from the Northern Dancer-Blushing Groom cross in Giant's Causeway's blood. Anyway, without belabouring the point you should see that this horse is breed to be something royal/special. That fluent galloping action smacks of "Big Red" himself and with his stamina flowing from his dam's family we are in for an awesome triple-crown ride this season. Check it out my friend. Notwithstanding our divergent views on some issues I do enjoy your posts.

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Truth be Told... — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 21:13:35 GMT

Coldfacts,

When was the last time you picked The Derby winner using your over-analyzed theory.

Connemara?....really? I hope you know he's clearly a synthetic/turf horse.

Coldfacts?... more like Luke-warmopinions if you ask me.

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 21:00:12 GMT

COLDFACTS,

The problem with your latest posting on Eskendereya's pedigree is that you give too much weight to the history of Seattle Slew's influence as a broodmare sire, as if the presence of Alydar, Ribot, Northern Dancer, Cosmah et al have no impact. You are being proven to be very wrong about this colt and will have to go back to the drawing board with your system. Mark my words Pal.

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

ABulldog — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 15:49:50 GMT

Tiz Chrome will be back on everyones list after he crushes the field in the Gotham. Is Baffert trying the same route as I Want Revenge. Win the Wood next and he would be right in the mix. He showed he liked the dirt in Churchill.

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Tony R — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 14:39:29 GMT

I am not giving up on Drosselmeyer. This guy closed on the leader while behind a slow pace in the Risen Star. Drosselmeyer will relish 10 furlongs. He's still my derby pick.

As for Eskenderya, well he was loping along following a slow pace, and put it in gear the last 3/8ths running away from the field. I'm not sold on him yet.

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Coldfacts — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 05:21:49 GMT

Steve,

I have been trying to be positive about Eskendereya in spite of the fact that my chart indicates he will not be the 2010 Derby winner. However the cold facts are overwhelming negative:

(a)Seattle Slew sired 444 broodmares and only one has been associated with the winner of Triple Crown race. Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid dam Charming Lassie was sired by Seattle Slew.

(b)I recognize that there are not a lot of Triple Crown winners but they are notoriously poor derby broodmare sires. In the last 70 years a grand total of two derby winning broodmares were sired by a Triple Crown winners. The modern day Triple Crown winners i.e., Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed sired a combined 1,101 dams. These dams have been associated with the winners of a grand total 3 Triple Crown races (A.P. Indy, Lemon Drop Kid & Summer Squall) A P Indy and Summer Squall share the same dam Weekend Surprise, Of the over 1100 broodmares only two have produced winners of TC races. None of the winners were derby

Winners.

(c)Storm Cat sons do not sire derby winners. One hundred of them have entered stud in the US and none have come close. Nothing has changed. In spite of Giant’s Causeway’s brilliance on the track, he is still a son of Storm Cat in the breeding shed.

In 2009 a colt by the Chocolate Candy sired by the brilliant Candy Ride out of a stakes winning Seattle Slew mare was in the derby mix big time. It was felt the derby distance of 10F was what he wanted. In spite of his multiple prep wins and his placing behind eventual derby runner up Pioneerof The Nile, he was a flop in the Triple Crown races. A Seattle Slew mare crossed with one of the most successful derby sire line in history did not make the grade. Eskendereya is the product of a cross of a Seattle Slew mare with a sire line that has had dismal success in TC races. Will Eskendereya fair better than Chocolate Candy? In this case I am not convinced that two negative will make a positive.

NB: Chocolate Candy second dam was sired by Alydar. He also happens to be the sire of Eskendereya’s second dam. Interesting!

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Matthew W — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 02:11:12 GMT

Caracortado sat a couple lengths off what was a fast pace for that day---he kicked right by and opened space quickly--like a good thing, as pro-riders tend to stay more bunched up/more like turf...Caracortado has a good cruising speed as well as some kick--his stalk and pounce style is the best style of running for EVERY surface, moreso on dirt, which he has handled-- as deeper closers seem to win over the pro ride than do closer stalkers...in other words, I like him over Lookin At Lucky, and all the others out here--throw in the 5 for 5 record, the 4-1 odds (maybe) and I like my chances...also like him in Kentucky....

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Gunslinger — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:17:40 GMT

Backtalk gets his 3 year old debut tomorrow night at Delta Downs. Can't wait to see him in action again - and then, mixing it up and winning the Derby!

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Smoking Joe — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 22:59:45 GMT

Anybody watch all of the preps? Nothing but front-runners and slow fractions except The Southwest, where they staggered home. Dave in Dixie will love this setup.

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

ElusiveQuality — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 15:24:49 GMT

Being in upstate NY and practically living at Saratoga during the meet, I have been impressed with Dublin since before his first 2 yr old start...I hope he makes it to the gate 1st Sat in May...that being said, there is another horse I like that ran with him at 2...Backtalk...was supposed to debut at 3 soon....

re: February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

jon — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 13:44:57 GMT

I would agree that Blind Luck is probably one of the top 3 year olds in training based on her last 2 races and turn of foot. We may not see her in The Derby, so if anyone can talk to her trainer, tell him her presence there would be good for both the sport and his wallet. I would compare her to Genuine Risk at this stage.

Lentenor had trouble last race, clearly bouncing off his maiden win, but as several posters pointed out, he needs both speed and distance. I will go out on a limb to say that Blind Luck is better than Lucky, and Lentenor could hold his own against any of the top 12 Haskin favorites. The problem is that Matz is not being aggressive with Lentenor's talent, so the horse gets wasted in these low level races when he could easily win a major prep.