March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 19:28:15 GMT

ZARVONA,

Why so unorthodox in your analyses for this year's Derby, comparing splits on grass to those on dirt etc. and arbitrarily abondoning your tried and tested "staay-away-from Storm Cat line breeding" rule ? Could i remind you that the Mine That Bird and Giacomo phenomena are abberations that don't occurr every year or two years in succession? This year I believe that the trifecta will be easy pickings, like taking candy from a baby ...history does not support another major upset this year. Coldfacts might want to weigh-in on this one.

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Slew — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 15:30:36 GMT

I'm starting to have more hope for Jackson Bend with Borel on him in the Wood....but he certainly is tiny.

Ron the Greeks work fractions have not been great. Giant Oak is running better times.

What's with Lookin At Lucky...is Baffert hedging about a dirt track debut? Weather for Hot Springs..

"Mar 13 Saturday

Occasional showers possible. Highs in the upper 50s and lows in the upper 30s." What snow? Well...I know anything is possible..but it looks unlikely. If a snowflake does fall, it will most likely melt on a ground that's been really warming up into the 60's.

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Gary — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 05:06:19 GMT

I agree with a lot of you guys and gals, I think Caracortado is the best in the west and until he gets beat, how can you go against him?, Looks like Lucky is duckin him, and I truly hope that Dublin is the best in the east, could be Wayne's last whoraah, and he deserves it , he showed most of these folks the ropes, Sheikes don't think they have anything,

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

zarvona — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 22:49:24 GMT

FEELING THE NEED FOR SPEED ?????????????????

..and not forgetting about the distance issue!! In actuality, “Caracortado” now looks that much more attractive having beaten “Alphie’s Bet” last out in retrospect…but , someone posted earlier the following times of “Big Brown” and “Quality Road”, obviously two of this generations super horses:

“Big Brown” in the “Florida Derby” (notably from gate 12):

¼ :22.79; ½ :45.83; ¾ 1:10.08; 1 Mi. 1:35.18; 1 1/8: 1:48.16;

… & his :22.98; closing finish!

“Quality Road” Donn track Record:

¼ :23.21; ½ :46.02; ¾ 1:09.87; 1 Mi. 1:34.78; 1 1/8: 1:47.49;

… & his :22.71; closing finish! all GP runs mind you…

Well, were you people really paying attention to yesterdays races besides just noting the winner of the Gotham ?????????

YESTERDAY!!! ….

Fillie “Khancord Kid”, a ½ length winner over “Apple Charlotte” in the Herecomesthebride

1 1/8 Gr. III (T): ran a stellar

¼ :23.96; ½ :48.58; ¾ 1:12.17; 1 Mi. 1:35.32; 1 1/8: 1:47.14; …now does that compare with the above???

…that is, essentially closing off slow opening fractions !!!! … in her WHOOPING :21.82; finish! thusly, closing more that a second faster than Big Brown!

However, if you were are looking for a new and interesting DERBY CONTENDER besides

“Asphie’s Bet”,--Tr. A. Barba,--and his 1:48.72; 1 1/8 run in the Gr. III Sham!!! …not too shabby aye…

¼ :23.62; ½ :47.61; ¾ 1:12.22; 1 Mi. 1:36.52; 1 1/8: 1:48.72; in comparison and his ½ second better than Quality Road-or a Big Brown type closing finish his :22.20; being a closing finish is by the way that is extremely impressive!!! …however…

…try “Paddy O’Prado”’s lil run in comparison to all the above!, whom up to this point hadn’t broken his MAIDEN !!! However, look at and compare his run & his time in his win in the Palm Beach

1 1/8 Gr. III (T):

((over Dean’s Kitten-Our Champion-Asphalt-Bim Bam-& Lethal Combination)): where in finishing 2nd and 3rd & etc., not far from the lead, one must have felt accomplished!!, as they were chasing a winner in…

¼ :23.11; ½ :46.56; ¾ 1:10.10; 1 Mi. 1:33.51; 1 1/8: 1:45.40; !!!! I repeat 1:33.51; (and that faster than the impressive 1:35.30; run that “Make Music For Me” pulled off after his 3 month layoff in the Pasadena Stakes!!) and that of his finish

in 1:45.40: in a 1 1/8 race!!! ... with his comparable to the above :21.89; closing finish!!!

Thusly, this his is the stuff 4-5 yr. old Breeder’s Cup champions run around and great proven 3 yr. olds… not a 3 yr. old who hadn’t broken his maiden.!! I repeat, WHO hadn’t BROKEN HIS MAIDEN!! (… and tough to play such a horse to win before that race, aye, but...)

And so, if you were still are looking for a new DERBY CONTENDER, one that is faster than “Eskendereya”!!! and also much better suited for distance… (and I am sure there will be more) …try

“Paddy O’Prado” … an -'08 $105K $$ Keenlander! …and also an early Kentucky Derby entry mind you!!

Tr. D. Romans:

El Prado (Ire.)-(Sadler’s Well)-(Northern Dancer)-((thusly Raise a Native)-

Lady Capulet-((d.s. Sir Ivor-(Sir Gaylord)-(Turn To) ))-

((s.s.d.s. Bold Reason-(Hail to Reason)

Fun House – Prized – (Kris S) - (Roberto) - (Hail to Reason)-

(thusly dbl bred to Hail to Reason)

Bistra-(Aus. & Fr. blood in the d.d. side) for stamina??…

And, its only still just the end of 1st week in March, although we should know all we need to know for expressing our opinions by April 3rd or April 10th ??? Although, I can’t believe any real actual Derby hopeful will come out of the Ark. Derby or the Toyota Blue Grass and turn around and run 3 weeks later in the Kty. Derby and still have gas in the tank for a real shot at the Derby! ...but….

Well, I was looking for some runners that I thought had merit from this past weekend, and in those two mentioned above plus “Mendip”, I think we have found three that should crack a few top 10 lists !!! and all were “FIELD ENTRIES” from future Pools 1 & 2 !!! Now who other than maybe “Lookin at Lucky”-“Eskenderya”-“Doubles Partner”-&/or “Caracortado”, etc. ,,,can really even run with or standup to these three mentioned newbies?--“Paddy O’Paddo”-“Alphies Bet”-& “Mendip”--in reality!!??! Well, I guess we shall see, and that’s why they run the races. Surely, anyone can win the Derby, as “Gacimo” and “Mine that Bird” did and have proven! But, like I said, up to this point, we have not seen all or this relatively stellar collection yet! And, yes, there were some impressive 1 1/16 winners, but many with Distance stamina issues and not really any with BLISTERING SPEED shown yet in the sub 1:41.50; range!, being nothing like those two 1 1/8 efforts yesterday! And, I am sure some more new faces will pop up out of the woodwork yet in Fla. Derby, the Wood Memorial, the Sunland Derby, the Lane’s End, and the Santa Anita, Derby, etc., that is, before all is said and ready done before the DANCE, that “greatest 2 minutes in sports” on May the 1st!!!

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 22:46:16 GMT

ZARVONA,

I wonder why are you breaking your "Storm Cat line rule" to put Alphie's Bet into your top ten. Also, the excitement over turf horse Paddy O'Prado is mystifying. This one has only turf pedigree with no Derby-winning influences in his tail-female family and a maiden win, albeit in a turf stakes, gives you cause for celebration? Attractive odds are worth nothing and can be very costly if the horses have no shot.

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 22:34:38 GMT

COLDFACTS,

Over the last decade Mr Prospector, alongside Northern Dancer, has been the greatest influence on breeding of Kentucky Derby winners, being present within the first three generations of six of the last ten Derby winners (fact check the pedigrees of Mine That Bird, Street Sense, Barbaro, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide and Fusaichi Pegasus). The only significant position he has yet to fill is the Broodmare sire position and that may be only a matter of time my friend. There is no genetic law that precludes that outcome. The law of averages suggests that it can happen just like it did with Fusaichi Pegasus winning the Derby from his last crop of 3YOs. I'm not saying this is the year because beating Eskendereya, Super Saver and Rules will be like climbing mount Everest for any 3YO this year, on the evidence so far but Awesome Act certainly has a live shot.

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Caracortado — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 19:19:11 GMT

Wow I saw Tiz Folly in that race and wow he is good very good. Was block inside the rail open up and almost take care of business. He sure is one to follow up in upcoming race.

I was surprise of Alphie Bet he could be a handful in the SA Derby.

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Matthew W — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 18:59:19 GMT

Alphie's Bet is Cali all the way--Cali owners/Cali Breeders/Cali Jock/and Cali Breeding Stock!...I love it! I pine for the days of the Cali Big Horse! As far as I am concerned, Caracortado is on top out here, and Alphie's Bet will get the 1 1/4--look out! The fourth Cal Bred Derby Winner is on the horizen! I have only seen one Eastern Based horse that has impressed me as much as Caracortado and Alphie's Bet, so why not? It's been, what, 55 years since a Cal bed won the Roses? They are DUE!

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

RiverCitySmitty — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 13:12:48 GMT

I bet Alphie, but think the field in the Sham was far from stellar. Awesome Act`s win was even more impressive basically did it straight off the plane. I think he had a work in England Tuesday and was then in quarantine for 2 or 3 days before the race. I`ve put him on my "maybe" list for down the road.

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Derby Dew — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 12:31:04 GMT

Steve,

I'm anxious to hear your comments on Awesome Act. His stirring win in the Gotham having just got off the plane and it being his first start since the BC, was impressive. With four weeks to acclimate and train at Aqueduct, he should be primed for a big effort in the Wood. A Derby contender, for sure.

Only concern about the Gotham was the relatively weak field this year. What was all the noise about WOW, WOW, WOW? Another "hot air" tip from the Lukas barn that fizzled. Dublin is the only legit chance D Wayne has to make it to the Derby, but wear the roses? No way he even hits the board.

Looking forward to this weekend's preps, particularly, the San Felipe. Have an eye on American Lion who's expected to kick it up a notch from a good effort off the layoff in the Lewis. If the Lion wins, Msr. Leparoux will have to chose between the Act and the Lion as the Wood and SA Derby are run on the same day (Apr. 3rd). Laisie les bon temps rolle! Things are finally starting to heat up.

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

zarvona — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 07:27:42 GMT

"Alphie's Bet" was great and is now in my top ten, but WOOOO HOOOO "Paddy O'Prado" may be the answer we were all looking for!!!

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Coldfacts — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 05:57:18 GMT

Zookeeper,

Below is an extract from a previous post about Nextdoorneighbo

‘The only thing I like about this colt is his unique pedigree. While the Northern Dancer broodmare line has enjoyed record breaking success, the Icecapade broodmare line has never featured on the derby chart. Both Northern Dancer and Icecapade were sired by Nearctic. Nextdoorneighbor’s dam was sired by Wild Rush a grandson of Icecapade. There is also another negative regarding his dam. Her success on the track (Earnings $612K) and graded race success literally disqualifies her as potential derby winning broodmare. Even in the era of high purses no derby winning broodmare has had that sort of success on the track. These types of mares do not produce Derby champions.’

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Coldfacts — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 05:55:44 GMT

Ranagulzion,

What do Scat Daddy, War Pass and Rock Hard Ten have in common? Their dams were all sired by Mr. Prospector. He sired 511 dams and none to date has produced the winner of a Triple Crown race. Scat Daddy was very impressive winning the Champagne, Florida Derby and Fountain Of Youth on rout to the derby. He finished 19th. I do not believe Awesome Act will effectively stay 10F. Setsuko is another colt who was produced from a Mr. Prospector broodmare. It appears he has an abundance of stamina. Both colts were sired by Breeders Cup Classic winners. Only one derby winner to date has been sired by a BCC winner. My conservative estimate is that about 17 BCC winners took stud duties in the US. It is therefore reasonable to conclude that it will take an exceptionally brilliant prodigy of a BCC winner to win the derby. Do you consider either Awesome Act or Setsuko to be exceptionally brilliant? I have not confidence that a Mr. Prospector mare will produce a derby winner.

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Zookeeper — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 03:43:22 GMT

Coracortado,

I saw a replay of the race Tiz A Knight won. Talk about the apple not falling far from the tree. Gritty just like his dad Tiznow!

Another member of the Tizzy clan, this one by Tizbud (full brother to Tiznow) came in second in the 2nd race at SA today. His name is Tiz Folly. Didn't look like much on paper but ran his heart out from beginning to end.

Mr. Haskin, Nextdoorneighbor didn't do well today, I was disappointed. Would have loved to see this Lido Palace colt win or place. What do you think of Alphie's Bet?

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 02:58:16 GMT

Awesome Act finessed his way into the fray with his smashing victory in the Gotham today. This is a very nice colt with outstanding pedigree. He has the Rasmussen factor, being inbreed to Natalma within the first five generations, through Northern Dancer and Raise The Standard. His second dam is also inbred to Almahmoud through Natalma and Cosmah. With the accleration power of the Northern Dancer-Blushing Groom cross on top clearly evident and Mr Prospector close up in the tail female family together with the aforementined inbreeding to superior broodmares, this colt is a "bred-in-the-purple" Derby contender. Being by Awesome Again, he is only going to get better as the season wears on. I really like this one. He comes knocking hard on the door of my top five in only his first start on dirt. Like Radiohead last week this English raider won with authority but has a lot more upside to him. It will be interesting to see where he lands in Steve's revised Derby Dozen next week.

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Battfist — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 23:42:57 GMT

You better put Alphies Bet on the list.

What a beauty!

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Matthew W — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 15:38:36 GMT

Just threw down on the folowing: Caracortado, American Lion and Connemara for the Derby futures, a fool's bet if there ever was one---that's me, all right! Connemara is flying under the radar, with his low Beyers--and his great breeding! (and obvious staying power!)

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Destin — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 13:53:12 GMT

Steve,

Any thoughts on Lukas replacing thompson with C. Nak? Will that move him up in your mind? Hinder him? Seems the horse runs well for hungrier jockeys, Thompson, Theriot or maybe it is just a T thing.

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Armaan — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 06:00:30 GMT

Mendip is sure to come for the derby becayse he hasn't run on the turf. All of his three starts have been on synthetics. I think its an easy decision for godolphin to bring him to the states because unlike Vale of York Mendip has no turf future as of right now. The only thing that can stop him from coming here is that if he runs terribly in the UAE derby, which seems highly unlikely because he is too much of a talent to let that happen. Although he hasn't run on the dirt but he has a very strong dirt pedigree.The other thing that encourages me about Mendip is that he has been running against full fields of 14 plus horses and that experience can come handy in the Kentutucky derby. I don't think he will be fancied in the states even if he runs well in the UAE derby.

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Caracortado — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 05:43:42 GMT

Did anybody see TIZ A NIGHT race. in race5 on 3/5/2010 at Santa Anita. It was a maiden race for 3yrs old.

1 1/16 it was a great race Tiz a Night was leading the race comfortably, going down the stretch he was rough up at the lead against a good horse name Saw Perfection. Tiz a Night was beat but then he came back to win it in a very exciting race. You guy's should check it out. Tiz a Night look like his daddy (TIZNOW) in that race..... BEAUTIFUL..

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Forbidden Apple — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 17:15:00 GMT

Thank you Footlick. I just picked up saturday's DRF and they did list the final time of 1:59 2/5 for 1 3/16, turtle like. Even though the time was super slow, Mendip looks like he has a very bright future and he looks to be bred for dirt. He is on my radar for sure as the U.S. horses are average at this point. My top 3 for the KY Derby as of today are Buddy's Saint, Conveyance, and Connemara.

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Slew — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 14:48:44 GMT

Okay........I've finally seen the colt that I've found most impressive. Beautiful conformation, can go the distance, fight off a mob, and has a lot of speed. I can only hope that he comes to the Derby. I hate to appraise him from seeing only one race, but I thought Mendip was awesome at Meydan. He's my front runner while still clinging to Ron and Dave, Backtalk and Dublin.

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Big G — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 01:44:19 GMT

Hey Wiz

I stand by my statement. Eskendereya ran a nice race but not a monster race. You compared his time to Big Brown's time in the Kentucky Derby (remember though started from the 20 hole that day and ran a wide race for the most part) but I was comparing the same racing surface, Gulfstream Park . Take look at the follow fractions. Both run at 1 1/8 mi

Big Brown Fl Dby Qual Rd Donn

1/4 22.79 1/4 23.21

1/2 45.83 1/2 46.02

3/4 1:10.08 3/4 1:09.87

1M 1:35.18 1M 1:34.78

1 1/8 1:48.16 1 1/8 1:47.49

These are monster races Quality Roads was a new track record and BB was from the 12 hole.

Compare these times to Eskendereya in the FOY and again his was a nice race but not a "monster race". I expect him to win the Florida Derby if he runs against the same cast of characters but if his fractions are similar to FOY and he is near the front end I will not like him in the KD Derby unless he is taken well off the pace and comes with a Big run in the end. If he runs fractions similiar to BB and QR in the Fl Derby and is near the front end like in the FOY he will change my mind about the KD Derby !!!

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

zarvona — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 00:39:28 GMT

Regarding the fillies: Pool #2 was very close to have gotten out a most reasonable collection!

Firstly, one asked who the eight filly 'Derby Nominees' were, well, they were: “Ailalea”; “Blind Luck”; “Christine Daae”; “Crisp”; “Cozi Rosie”; “Devil May Care”; “She Be Wild”; and “Switch”, which means little more than the trainers convinced the owners to spend $600.00 early just in case.

Notably however, most all have a distance rating around or above the ‘Tomlinson’ average of 320 ! However, in that category, “Cozi Rosie” leads the pact with a whopping 404! She of course is followed by, “Negligee” at (384); “She Be Wild” (383); “Evening Jewel” (381); “Tidal Pool” (375); and “Crisp” at (375); and etc., where in comparison “Blind Luck” only measures in with her respectable above average figure of (327),--(if you are already on her bandwagon!),--being much nearer to average in comparison. However, I strongly suggest that one review all these gals’ past performances before jumping on or into any future wager! Additionally notable, and besides the highly respected “Christine Daae” at (356);

“Amen Hallelujah”, another promising gal, registers in at a current (352). “Devil May Care” at (350); “Sassy Image” (355); “Jody Slew” (352); and “Quiet Temper” at (357),--and etc.,--rounding out the remainder of those that are a smidgen above average at this juncture in measuring the group for distance, and that all being at this stage, only the first week in March!

For some comparison, let’s compare the above list to a few of the leading, being talked about colts at this juncture. “Looking at Lucky” (308): “Eskendereya” (336); “Caracortado” (312); “Connemara” (325);

“Super Saver” (372); “Dublin” (276); “Conveyance” (219); “Vale of York” (270); “Buddy’s Saint” (259); and etc.

Yes, and do add “Mendip” to your Derby watch lists, as obviously, getting the distance is no issue there!!

Good luck to all this weekend! AND GO “OUTLAW MAN”!!!

re: March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Footlick — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 00:09:11 GMT

Forbidden Apple- Dettori said he keeps improving every start. Vale of York ran like a short horse. They said he was behind on his preparations, and this was a prep race, but I really feel they were not going to send him to the Derby anyway. Just by the way they started to talk about him maybe going to Europe instead. It was a surprise to see the Sheikh's son, Sheikh Rashid, decide to keep Conveyance in the States. He also owns Richard's Kid, who is being sent over for the Dubai Cup.