March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

You Got to have it — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 17:03:04 GMT

My top Derby picks:

1. Odysseus

2. Gleam of Hope

4. Schoolyard Dreams

5. Sidney's Candy

6. Paddy O Prado

7. Awesome Act

8. Lookin At Lucky

9. Eskendeyera

10. Rule

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Kevin Stafford - The Aspiring Horseplayer — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 15:04:28 GMT

All I can say is that I hope you're on my Odysseus Bandwagon now (even invited you to the new Facebook Fan Group I started for him, check your in-box Mr. Haskin! LOL).

Here's my top 10 as of 3/14/10:

1. Odysseus (you know he's my boy)

2. Lucky (ran a helluva race)

3. Eskenderay (still a force)

4. Awesome Act (love this guy)

5. Rule (forgotten horse?)

6. Discreetly Mine (still has ??'s)

7. Conveyance (hey, he won on dirt)

8. Sidney's Candy (can't knock a W)

9. Intaractif (game in defeat)

10. Noble's Promise (always there)

Full thoughts are available here if I can ever get you stop over (LOL):

theaspiringhorseplayer.com/.../kentucky-derby-rankings-third-times-a-charm

Kevin

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

RiverCitySmitty — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 14:41:15 GMT

Esky has been at the top of most lists for the past few weeks, but what if he gets a Buddy`s Saint trip in the Fla. Dby.? He`s been lightly raced and could be leap frogged by many in graded earnings with the upcoming prep races. The gap between the Fla. and Ky. Derbies could make for a could force a big change in plans lest he be shut out of CD.

I`ve never been a big Dublin fan, but C-Nak seemed to move too early with him. Noble`s Promise ran a good race coming off the layoff and perhaps Albarado figured he need to make his move of Dublin would be home free. Good race by L@L and the top two both have ample earnings in their pockets.

Odysseus ran the best over the weekend, but I still don`t know how he won the photo over Schoolyard.

Interactif has a bunch of graded money in the bank and may go in the BG or Lex @ Kee which means he`ll go to Louisville with no dirt experience whatsoever. I hope Sydney`s Candy gets into the starting gate in May so I can have another pace horse to toss. Cacataco looked to have no excuse other than being outrun.

For whoever mentioned Backtalk, there was a quote from his trainer Amoss that they were currently leaning towards either the Ark or Ill Derby with him.

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 00:59:38 GMT

Auburnbill,

Dublin is going to be a very fit, tuff and battle-ready horse on Derby day. That is D. Wayne Lukas' modus operandus. The only question is: will he be good enough to even hit the board? That's left to be seen but Lukas' methods have produced four derby winners, Winning Coulors, Thunder Gulch, Grindstone and Charismatic in the past and not all of them had convincing prep races.

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Albany Bob — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 23:13:16 GMT

Steve:

I believe Nick Zito's Ice Box will hit your list following the Florida Derby. This horse had no chance behind Eskendereya in his last start since he was disadvantaged by an outside post, fractious/slow start, premature middle move and wide trip. Additionally, for those who are numbers-oriented, he may have bounced off a jump-up big fig in his previous start.

Ice Box is bred to appreciate longer distances since his dam was a stakes horse at 1 1/2 miles and his distaff family produced a Derby winner (Spend A Buck). His 1/2 mile bullet work on Saturday was a sparkler. Ice Box went 47 1/5 at Palm Meadows. That was one of the fastest (I believe tied for second fastest) works at that training facility among over 600 1/2 mile works since February 24!

Ice Box is sitting on a big race for a trainer who knows how to crank up a three year old in the Spring. He's worth a straight bet at the price and is a must use with Pletcher's Eskendereya.

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

TheeMilton — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 21:58:05 GMT

I agree with Auburnbill comments on Dublin. Trainer's that are IN the Derby have bigger picture in mind. I think Sidney's Candy is questionable win candidate in next race now if he runs in Santa Anita Derby for the same reason. LOVED Sidney's win on the stretchout against one of the tougher Derby Prep fields during the past weekend. Still like both of these horses on May 1st.

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Carlos in Cali — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 18:29:36 GMT

Odysseus is the real deal,he's still a bit green and has tremendous upside potential. The sky is the limit like Albertrani said. I hope they bring him back in the Wood Memorial as planned,he needs a little bit more seasoning before the Derby. No more questioning his ability,he's a true Derby contender.

Dublin looks like a miler to me. Though he might have regressed a little off his tough comeback race.

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Slew — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 16:58:46 GMT

Why do I think I see Lookin At Lucky, Noble's Promise, and Odysseus moving up to the top three? Wow, what a weekend! Sydney's Candy was no slouch, but Dave in Dixie never fired. (Ron and Dave are just not holding on for me...I'll wait until I see more) Dublin may have just had a bounce; I expect to see more of him. Maybe I haven't been keen on Caracortado just because his haircuts are so bad, but he tried. Schoolyard Dreams took a step up. I'll wait and see with him. I'm disappointed Buddy's Saint is off the Derby trail. Can't discount Super Saver, and I'm still waiting to see what else Backtalk can do. It's been an exciting day of racing, and now I remain exhausted. I wonder if there is still an under-the-radar horse who will step up. (Can New Madrid move up?.(April 10th?)..great breeding, broke his maiden, and looks just like Daddy)

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Coldfacts — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 15:35:26 GMT

Steve,

I took a shot at Gleam Of Hope at 42-1 and lost but his performance left me feeling like a winner. This colt was slowly into stride and was left several lengths last. He choose the wrong time to be slowly into stride as the 47.02 half of the 2010 Tampa Bay Derby is the fastest in the last four years. The first 6F (1:11.74) was faster than that of the 2007 renewal in which Street Sense established the stakes record of 1:43.11. This colt was really up against it with his bad break. In spite of this he closed an 8-10 lengths gap from last to be briefly second in deep stretch before being one pace. His effort to close the gap on a group of legitimate derby contender clearly took its tool. I have absolutely no doubt that with a better break this colt would have won at his gigantic odds.

I conducted a research on this colt the morning of the race as I knew very little about him. I discovered his dam was sired by Vice Regent. I was of the opinion that there were no Vice Regent broodmares around. I couldn’t help but being attracted to this colt because of his dam sire. Vice Regent is on the Triple Crown board as broodmare sire of the deep closer and Belmont winner Victory Gallop. He was also the sire of stamina giant Deputy Minister. Deputy Minister was the sire of Breeder Cup Classic winner Awesome Again, Belmont winner Touch Gold. He is also broodmare sire of four Belmont winners and a BCC winner. I concluded that this colt’s past performance and being so closely linked to the stamina influence of his dam sire, he was worth a shot. I know the focus will be on Odyseuss and Super Saver and this colt will be regarded as the also ran. However, I would encourage everyone to revisit the video of the race and it will reflect that Gleam Of Hope was SIS and was left 8-10 lengths last. After being uses to get into contention and forced to go four wide for his challenge, he still had enough left occupy second before flattening out. For me his performance was the highlight of the race.

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

zarvona — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 07:13:21 GMT

Hmmm, okay, well, “Sidney's Candy” now deserves a spot in the top 8 (that being if he wasn’t already there on most all lists!). “Interactif” has to again be hovering around the top ‘dozen’ spot again. “Dublin” and “Super Saver” definitely drop back a bit, all while “Schoolyard Dreams” creeps back up a bit. And, I suppose, we have to compliment Steve for his eye regarding “Odysseus”!

So now, the question has to be asked again, ‘where will the earnings cutoff figure be this year?? Over $210 K , over $181K , or lower’?, being where in the past, several with required earnings did actually drop out and did concede spots at the last moment!

Is “Caracortada” now on the bubble?? Are “American Lion” and “Dave in Dixie” off the trail, unless one produces some miracle come back in the Santa Anita Derby?, etc.

And, as with “Blind Luck” likely to surrender her graded earned spot, what will “Vale of York” do??, will “Homeboykris” really attempt the distance? and etc., thusly just how many gate slots are filled?? The question always rises this time of year,--as we all take that glance over at the updated ‘graded earnings’ chart,--‘just how many gate slots are thusly left still available? And, especially now, for these with their only 1 time remaining hopeful runs or windows still left available to them?’, thusly, being those now on the earnings bubble? or worst, those currently with no graded earnings to date at all, where one must wonder about the charted paths chosen by their respective connections. And, why then, were there not 12 gate slots filled in these recent preps instead of only 7 ?????

Aww , only really 4 more weeks left to answer these questions and to fill out the puzzle!

Thusly, will the last available gate slots fall to the likes of “Mendip”; “The Program”; “Who’s Up”?; “Alphie’s Bet”; “Fly Down”; “Paddy O’Prado”?; “Double’s Partner”?; “Drosselmeyer”?; “Lentenor”; “Connemara”?; and etc., or possibly to some ‘newbie’ hopeful altogether, such as “Yawnna Twist”; “Macias”?, “Nacho Friend”, “Fast Alex”; “Game on Dude”; or a “Miner’s Reserve”?

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

David — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 06:48:01 GMT

Coldfacts -

I promise you that ODYSEUSS does not have physical issues. Haskin can vouch for me that I know this for a fact. The Padua team had it as there plan to do several things with ODYSEUSS coming into his 3yo year - break his maiden, strech him out to two turns in an allowance race and then get him Graded Earnings so he could get to the KY Derby. As i mentioned in a post before, he was sick after his first start in October as a 2yo and it pushed him back.

Mark -

I don't see where ODYSEUSS has gate issues. He has broke well in his last three starts. If he has a weakness, it is that he is still learing how good he really is and when he needs to do his running during the body of the race. The only thing that can stop ODYSEUSS from being a serious Derby contender on May 1 would be a lack of experience and race seasoning, but he is improving very quickly coming into the Derby and proved he can overcome adversity in his Tampa Bay Derby win - two qualities that make for Derby winners come the first Saturday in May. I'm rooting for ODYSEUSS because if anyone in the racing game deserves a Kentucky Derby winner its Mr. Sanan and Padua Stables (with Juddmonte in a dead heat of deservedness - if that's a word.)

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

sherpa — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 04:34:19 GMT

My thoughts on Dublin: put Jamie Theriot back on him.

It was tough to see Caracortado lose today; however, Sidney's Candy did run an awesome race and deserved the win. I liked Interactif a lot last year but was still surprised that he ran so well today. American Lion sure is a massive horse - he's a big question to me now, but lookout when he's 4!

(And I still think "Scarface" is a Derby horse and hope he'll have sufficient graded earnings to get there.)

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Forbidden Apple — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 03:40:27 GMT

Lmaris, I have put Lentenor on my list because I was hearing rumors of a possible start in the FL Derby. He clearly deserves a scratch from my new list.

My thoughts on Dublin are that he was way over hyped before the race because of his sire and his trainer. Dublin is not Afleet Alex and he was never ever on any of my lists. Lookin At Lucky was much the best today even with his narrow victory. But I still say that he is not Baffert's best chance at a KY Derby win. Conveyance will be a dangerous horse if he lets Sidneys Candy set a fast pace and sits just behind him. Super Saver was rusty, but I was expecting more from him today. I still say that Pletcher's best chance is with Connemara if at all.

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Auburnbill — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 02:49:10 GMT

Looking for anyone's thoughts on Dublin after the Rebel. After the two bullets earlier and Nakatani moving earlier than I'd expected, have sneaking suspicion that result was more product of Lucas' long-range focus on May 1 than flatering in stetch? Thoughts?

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Jason — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 02:43:33 GMT

Trebloc,

I am just gonna take a guess that they ran Odyseuss in that allowance race to first off get a race off the surface and two because it makes sense to run in an allowance race before a stake. And he proved today that they knew what they were doing

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

trebloc — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 23:07:39 GMT

Great race from Tampa! Six lbs and first race back all the difference! Glad Mr. Sanan has a derby horse! Hope all the horses finished healthy!

SS still my derby pick.

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Bloodline Bob — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 22:49:04 GMT

STEVE, ANOTHER SIRE THAT WAS BORN IN 1997....TAMPA BAY DERBY WINNER ODYSSEUS'S SIRE(MALIBU MOON) WAS BORN IN 1997! I AM TELLING EVERYBODY THIS IS THE KEY TO THE 2010 KY. DERBY.

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 22:21:04 GMT

COLDFACTS,

We'll see today if your speculation concerning Erbeia bears any fruit. Personally I don't think he'll hit the board. Also as a son Pulpit and grandson of AP Indy I think his chances of being ripe for the Derby are poor. I agree that the horse should normally improve but the rate of improvement and the time of improvement vary according to several factors including genetics/pedigree.

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Mark — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 18:07:39 GMT

Odysseus scares me with his problems breaking from the gate. He's a great horse when he breaks well, but it just seems that you never know which horse you are going to get.

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

trebloc — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 15:47:13 GMT

If Odysseus is so good, why did the connections not run him in the Sam Davis? After all isn't about getting graded earning and running in the Derby? Or did they bypass the Sam Davis in the hope that he would crush a lousy field and someone step up and buyt the colt or a percentage? Sticking with SS.

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Coldfacts — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 13:57:53 GMT

Steve,

On the subject of foundation, I agree that Nacho Friend is vulnerable in this department. However, he is no more vulnerable than Odysseus, the #10 ranked colt on your list who also has only 3 starts to date. I would conclude that Nacho Friend has more foundation than Odysseus. Nacho Friend last two races were in the (Gll) Sanford and (Glll) Gotham. Both races contained much better competition than Odysseus faced in his maiden & allowance wins. A number of the prominent 3YOs are lightly raced and this appear to bethe trend in the last couple of years. It appears a lack of foundation is not a significant issue for derby contenders. Big Brown won off 3 starts. Curlin and Summer Bird were 3rd and 6th respectively in their derbies off 3 starts. Curlin and Summer Bird went on to win the Preakness and Belmont in their respective fourth starts. 2009 Belmont runner up Dunkirk was only making his 4th start as well. Basket Ball star Allan Iverson became famous or infamous for the term ‘WE TALK'N BOUT PRACTICE’ Are talking about foundation when apparently it has become an insignificant negative.

NB: I still content that Odysseus is a horse with issues. He is a January foal making only his 4th start. He has a maturity advantage over most his competitors. His sire Malibu Moon was bred to 136 mares in 2006 and I am unable to identify another 3YO form his 2007 crop. Could this mean Malibu Moon is siring a lot of foals with physical issue?

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Coldfacts — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 13:25:28 GMT

Ranagulzion,

Occasionally I take a shot at an unknown quantity. Are you aware that Big Brown won his debut at 14-1 and subsequent to that never left the starting gates without being the favorite in the betting? Sea The Stars and Ghostzapper both went off at attractive odds when breaking their respective maidens. All theses horses were relatively unknown quantities. I yearlings can be purchased at auctions based on the pedigrees without any knowledge of their abilities then they can be wagered on the same principle.

3YOs can improve overnight. If you agree with the phrase ‘A picture is worth a thousand words’ then surely you must know a race is worth more than 10-20 exercise works. After a race a Beyer Speed rating is assess on the participants. What is never assessed and cannot be measured with any degree of accuracy is the improvement or regression a 3YO will make. If the 3YO isn’t damaged physically or psychologically it should improve. The extent of the improvement will be seen in its exercise gallop but only race will provide any semblance of accurate measure of the horses improvement.

(a) What improvements have Erbeia made since it last race?

(b) Was he slow to develop and is now ready for his best effort?

(d) Is he in the race as rabbit?

Above are some of the known unknowns that the betting public faces daily. The connections horses on the other hand would be in the category of the known knowns in most cased.

Can monsters in a race be slain? Well cast your mind back to the 2009 Rebel Stakes. It was the 50-1 shot Win Willy that defeated overwhelming favorite Old Fashioned. The betting public is afraid of opposing certain horses in a race. However, horses have no fear of each other.

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 05:27:00 GMT

UNBRIDLED BET,

Wisdom tells me that too much batter makes the bookie fatter and the better bitter. A word to the wise is still sufficient ...if you get my drift ...to think otherwise is to be other than wise.

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

kat — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 02:12:54 GMT

Coldfacts - You had me laughing with your "DR principle". LOL

Talk about "Fog of War". LOL

re: March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Unbridled Bet — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 01:10:30 GMT

Appreciate your 'Derby Dozen' Steve it's interesting reading the various perspectives here.

My only suggestion might be that it potentially be named the Baker's Dozen! Your horse mascot can sport a toque. You catch a lot of rough here for your "picks". I don't interpret it this way that often portrayed. It's only a snapshot, a moving target in time if you will. So each week the colts have to earn their way on the list. Roses don't come cheap.

Ranagulzion made an interesting point. "he who knows and knows that he knows he is a wise man seek him/listen to him ...". Pretending to "know" when one knows is plain foolery. We don't so we keep look'n for clues. It's better to be interested in all the batter as a better.

Really difficult to select 12 colts that fit some sort of mold. Again, it isn't a fixed target that's a good thing as things take shape. Absent cookie cutters, of coarse.

I'm not particularly seasoned on the breeding angle of the game. I enjoy listening to what others have to say that are.

Well anyway, there's lots of cookies in the jar so to speak they're still baking. And, the bakers keep on baking don't they. That's tricky business getting them just right not too hard not yet doughy come Derby day.

Best to all! Enjoy your comments.

Scott