March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Forbidden Apple — Thu, 25 Mar 2010 05:13:39 GMT

Ranagulzion,

I have never had Rule on my list of 13 KY Derby contenders, that is a fact. The horse is way overhyped because he is trained by bobblehead. There is no spin, I bet Lentenor to place and he lost, so what. I never claimed that he was an easy winner, I only bet him because I knew Rule would run like a donkey.

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Zookeeper — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 15:50:52 GMT

Coldfacts,

Don't get too serious on us now! If Eskenderya wins the Wood, you will simply have been wrong. No big deal! It happens to me all the time.

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 15:49:40 GMT

COLDFACTS,

Eskendereya won the FOY pulling the proverbial train. He won scampering away with so much in hand and wantig to do more that Johnny V commented after the race on how "the sucker" (referring to Esky) didn't want to be pulled up. I rest my case here until after the Wood. Okay bro?

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Coldfacts — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 14:58:30 GMT

Slew,

A pretty decent filly won on Saturday. If I am not mistaking Devil May Care's final time in the Bonnie Miss was faster than the colts in the FL Derby. I think it was 1:49.06 to the colts 1:49.19. Unless she does not take to the Churchill Downs track she should win the Kentucky Oaks. I have always felt that Mr. Pletcher is a much better trainer of fillies than colts.

Ranagulzion,

Let’s get some facts clear. I specified that Rule would not out run the late developers at 9F. I then I advised that the late developer to beat was Pleasant Prince. In my post to Steve, I provided some back ground as to why I thought PP had a big shot at winning. The chief reason was his last work of 59.1 handily. This horse is bred to go long and for him to work 59 suggest a lot of class. I must concede I wagered him handily when I saw the 25-1. I did not highlight any other horse in the field so it is a bit unfair to state that I took the field. I you revisit Zookeeper’s post it will confirm that this fact.

As soon as the field for the Wood is assembled I will give you my choice. I am focused on another colt sired by a son of A.P. Indy. I need to see his works after his last race to make a definitive decision. The A. P Indy sire line is hot right now and I think you should be very mindful of this. The first and second place finishers in the FL Derby were both sired by sons of A. P Indy. The Bonnie Miss winner Devil May Care was sired by a son of A. P. Indy. Is it any surprise that I am focused on an A. P. Indy grandson in the

Wood Memorial?

You should have major concerns about Eskendereya. The so called impressive victory in the FOY is not looking so good now. The cold facts are below:

FOY 23.72, 47.92, 1:12.41, 1:36.54, 1:48.87

FL Derby 23.21, 46.46, 1:10.76, 1:36.09, 1:49.19

B. Miss 23.68, 47.28, 1:10.76, 1:35.59, 1:49.06

Avg. for KD 22.85, 46.42, 1:11.04, 1:36.55, 1:49.19

The splits in the FL Derby and Bonnie Miss were more in line with the average split for the last ten Kentucky Derbies. Eskendereya was able to power home because of the early slow fractions. Do not be fooled into believing that his performance was exceptional. Both Ice Box and Pleasant Prince did not have ideal trips. Pleasant Prince had to be switched off the rails and negotiate his way through traffic and angled wide for his stretch run. Ice Box closed from last and had to angle 4 to 5 wide for his stretch run. These colts were chasing a 46, 1:10 fractions. Your colt in the FOY was forwardly place enjoying a snail’s pace for a Gll race.

The filly Devil May Care covered the mile in her race in 1:35 plus and was not keeping a straight course. She would have easily gone below 1:49 without the antics. She appears to be better horse that EsKy.

The fractions he will face in the Wood are going to be brutal and he may get hurt. If he wins in an afternoon stroll as you have suggested, I will immediately stop posting on this blog. In so doing, I will spare both Steve who is too much of a gentleman to tell me that I am crazy and the rest of his supporters the pain they have been enduring with by posts.

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

RiverCitySmitty — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 13:28:32 GMT

Slew: Jody Slew had an injury in her stall and is iffy for Friday`s Oaks race. She was still entered for the race so her connections are obviously hoping she`ll be okay by then.

Ranag...: Rule, Super Saver and Esky are not stalkers in my opinion. Remember Eddington and Rock Hard Ten? Both were shut out of the derby due to earnings. Eskendereya is currently 23rd and will be around 27th or so after next weekend. If he were to get nosed out for 2nd by Jackson Bend in the Wood he`ll watch the KD on TV. And yes, I`m still expecting a meltdown on derby day. Hoping my boy Ron the Greek gets something to run at this weekend. BTW the only Pletcher horse I`d consider @ Louisville is Interactif for what it`s worth.

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Slew — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 10:30:43 GMT

It seems to me that a pretty decent filly hit the big time after winning the Fair Grounds Oaks last year. This year we'll be looking at Jody Slew and Quiet Temper........hmmmmmmmmmmm????

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 04:29:41 GMT

COLDFACTS,

Believe me, I only get better not bitter in these triple crown debates (which I quite enjoy, rumbling with a good sport such as yourself and some others on here). The problem I have with accepting a diet of humble pie or whatever you prescribe (due to my choice Rule being beaten by one of your suggestions) is that you are playing smart rather than fair by pitting "the field" or some non-commital suggested likely winner(s) against my clear unambiguous winning selection. If my choice falters you come claiming I told you so. That may be smart on your part but I'm not stupid. I'll man-up and eat all the humble / yuckie stuff if the playing field is level bro.

I say Eskendereya wins the Wood. Tell me who is your pick. You have until just before the race runs ...I'll be waiting.

FORBIDDEN APPLE,

I see you are playing Smart Alec like Coldfacts. You tossed Rule like you tossed Dublin but what was your selection ...tell us now that the race is over and see if we believe you. Spin around and try again Pal.

I happen to fancy Awesome Act to run second in the Wood now that the impressive Eskendereya is showing up there. I look forward to your reactions after that race. Esky doesn't need to win to make it into the Derby and I don't think that he'll blow out at full trottle given that the first Saturday in May is the main objective but he can still win this on an afternoon stroll in my opinion. I think he is that special.

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Zookeeper — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 03:51:30 GMT

Coldfacts,

Thank you! I'll watch the replay again. I'm partial to "hand rides" but I realize that in a fight to the finish line, the whip is, sometimes, the deciding factor.

Mr. Haskin,

Your blogs have some very knowledgeable participants. I may not agree with their conclusions but the intelligent debates are a lot of fun and I learn a great deal from them. Thank you for setting the tone to a more rational discussion.

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

dcrocks — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 01:55:26 GMT

who think radiohead is a derby contender now lentenor had a horrible trip coming down the stretch he might not get in but he showed something to believe in his first start on dirt. but my list still goes as

1. lookin at lukcy

2. odysseus

3. eskendreya

4. awesome act

5. caracortado

6. schoolyard dreams

7. interactif

8. setsuko

9. super saver

10. conveyance

and if you don't agree with them then so be it we will see may 1st.

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Coldfacts — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 00:48:21 GMT

Zookeeper,

When Ice Box headed Pleasant Prince Leparoux gave him a crack and asked him for more and he responded to regained the lead. Leparoux then put the stick away and started to hand ride. If you watch the slow motion section of the replay, you can see Leparoux looking across at Lazcano as if to say take that. He thought the race was over after he regained the lead. If he had kept the stick on to the line the colt he would have won. The colt needed a finish like the one Jerry Bailey gave Grindstone where he never took the stick off to the line.

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Sun, 21 Mar 2010 20:12:39 GMT

RiverCitySmitty,

Don't you worry about the elite Todd Squad stalkers Esky, Rule and Super Saver they are quite capable of dominating the competition in the Derby. Super Saver is going to be vastly improved coming off his Tampa Bay Derby prep and should take the Arkansas Derby hands down.

If you take a good look at the Florida Derby it is quite clear that with a bit more restraint early on none of those closers would have gotten to Rule. However the colt needed that strong blow-out race to move him up a notch. He's going to be very very tough on closers in the Derby.

Eskendereya is a very special colt, a relentless galloper that can run his competition into the ground and confound all his detractors. Potentially he is the most complete Triple Crown candidate I've seen since the ill-fated Barbaro. He doesn't need to win the Wood to earn his way into the Derby field but realistically he doesn't have to run at full trottle to win convincingly either. Watch for your dream of closers winning the Derby to fade after the Wood Memorial.

As a true fan of this game it was good to see Nick Zito's Ice Box sprout wings in the final sixteenth to peg back Pleasant Prince, saving me some flack from my good friend Coldfacts. Those two colts are true Derby types in defiance of their grandsire AP Indy's abysmal Derby record. Ice Box has Mr Prospector in the 3rd generation on top and Belle de Jour (Spend A Buck's dam) as his 3rd dam in the tail female line coupled with Alysheba. Pleasant Prince also has Mr Prospector in the 3rd generation on top and Never Knock (Go For Gin's dam) as his broodmare sire's dam (also in the 3rd generation) on the bottom. It is safe to conclude that AP Indy will never sire a Derby winner himself but one of his sons or grandsons could do it from matings with a traditional Derby-winner-producing influence within three generations as shown above.

RiverCitySmitty I hope that I haven't bored you with all the pedigree stuff but it is an important part or reading and forcasting the Derby scene, albeit a little more complex than just spotting closers and wishing for a pace melt-down on the first Saturday in May. Good luck.

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Footlick — Sun, 21 Mar 2010 19:07:36 GMT

Vale of York out of the UAE Derby with colic.

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Forbidden Apple — Sun, 21 Mar 2010 18:32:27 GMT

Ranagulzion, what are you talking about now? Rule just suffered a beat down and you said he was an easy winner. You are the one with a short term memory malfunction. I tossed Rule completely, just like I tossed Dublin. We all have winners and losers, but you act like Pletcher's horses are completely dominant. The joke is on you. Take a long look at Awesome Act in the Wood and use him on your ticket if you want a return trip to the window for some money.

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Wade — Sun, 21 Mar 2010 17:40:44 GMT

Looking at Lucky is the horse to beat in the derby. I don't see any body beating him.

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Matthew W — Sun, 21 Mar 2010 17:37:32 GMT

1972...the three year old season of first Riva Ridge, later it was Key To The Mint---I was 13, a paperboy, my dad would take me to the track, a week before SA Derby, the two big favorites, Cal Breds Royal Owl and Macarthaur Park worked out between races, both at a mile...Mac Park went out first...46 half, 1:10 2/5...1:35 3/5 to the "oohs and ahs"...then Royal Owl, this huge son of Crazy Kid with brilliand Speed...1:09 2/5....1:34 3/5...and I'm like "Dad, next week we're going to bet on Quack"....anyway, Mac Park retired before the SA Derby, Royal Owl bombed as a heavy fave....but Quack didn't win, he had another of his hang jobs, like he did against a rubber-legged Riva Ridge in Riva's gutty Hol Derby later that year...no, it was ANOTHER Cal Bred, Solar Salute, (Jerry Fanning??), whop stole the race/stole the show that day...all in all a strong crop of three year olds--Key To The Mint got the Eclipse--I thought Riva Ridge deserved it....Quack, right after his Hol Derby hang job, ran one of the greatest 1 1/4 in history in the Hol Gold Cup---and Royal Owl ended up in New York, older and no longer a stakes horse, and he died on the track one cool afternoon, all 1200 lbs of him and his heart.

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

yawannabet — Sun, 21 Mar 2010 17:30:19 GMT

All timely comments, but the most important steps on the trail are still to be made and there are major contenders that are not getting press yet. Everyone wants to sound like a genius so early on, but the fact of the matter is that the Kentucky Derby is an entity unto itself. Many a great horse has not won this race, and many horses careers have fizzled after winning. Vale of York? Khalifa? Blind Luck?

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

trebloc — Sun, 21 Mar 2010 17:30:00 GMT

Pletcher is cooked, unless he can get his horse to win off the pace.

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Matthew W — Sun, 21 Mar 2010 17:23:16 GMT

Coldfacts Storm Cat is a sire of sires! Alphies Bet is big in the right places--he's a runner who would've probably won for a mil at Gulfstream yesterday--but goes for sevenfitty against Lookin At Lucky, Interactif, Sydneys Candy, Caracortado?...he's my sleeper horse, also have Connamera in the futures at (I think) 46-1....shocked to not see Eskendareya in Florida Derby--guess they cannot risk a loss when he's on the block--an aside, since fillies would have no extra $$ value if THEY lose, and Rachel's "ok", like I think she is---why did they choose to not go? If Moss is willing and ready to RISK AN UNBEATEN HORSE (!!!!)

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Coldfacts — Sun, 21 Mar 2010 16:59:03 GMT

Ranagulzion

"Get ready for a diet of crow buddy"

The above quote suggests that there was no way Rule could lose. When those statement are posted, one should be very sure they do not come back to haunt. I told you he had stamina limitation and even Steve keep pointing to the fact the he is one dimensional. Now you!

"Esky" will not let you get away with all those ridiculous arguments against his pedigree

You were clearly in a bitter mood when you posted the quote above. The historic negatives associated with Esky’s pedigree are facts that can be verified. The fact that they have no significance to you does not render them ridiculous. Have you ever considered why a Giant’s Causeway sired colt with a Triple Crown wining dam sire was only sold for $250K? Probably a soft market. Clearly there was not a lot of serious interest. I think his action is a bit suspect but time will tell. You have glorified this colt and I have accepted it and highlighted that there are some historic negatives that have to be overcome for a derby victory. I cannot see the harm in the information I have provided. It certainly does not justify an attack.

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Coldfacts — Sun, 21 Mar 2010 16:37:03 GMT

Ranagulzion,

Do I detect an element of bitterness in your most recent post? Below are two extracts from posts regarding the colt Pleasant Prince:

“Could a son and a daughter of these two old rivals team up for the next Florida Derby winner? Well, if the unknown Alibhai and Koubis teamed up and produced a derby winner, it s quite possible that Indy King and Archduchess to produce the FL Derby winner. He is worth a wager and a space on or under your radar.”

“Pleasant Prince the 4th place finisher in The FOY worked 59.1 handily. If the carries his work into the race he is likely to be the horse to beat as he is ideally bred for 9F. Good luck.”

Now, where in those two quotes did I definitively state that Pleasant Prince would win? I advise you he was the horse to beat and that Rule would not be able to out run the late developers at 9F. I was right on both accounts. You on the other hand implied that Rule would not loose. The horse you selected finished behind the one I selected and in spite of your reluctance, you should man up and accept the results. If the results were different I would be at your mercy. I would be probably suspended from Steve’s blogs.

“Your jockey misjudged the finish (from your point of view)”

Again you are way off the mark. My post reads as follows: “The rider of Pleasant Prince must be having nightmares as he thought the race was over” Ice Box headed Pleasant Prince and Leparoux asked him for more and he responded and regained the lead. When this occurred he took the stick off and resorted to hand riding the colt. That is what I meant when I said he thought the race was over. Great jocks do not lose races that close to the post when they regain a lead. Your post suggests that you were happy this colt lost as it no doubt gave you an out. There is no need to attack me as I only try to present the cold facts. I cannot imagine what will occur when the Big one loses on Saturday. NB: I never suggested the dish you should consume and it certainly wouldn’t be humble pie since you didn’t suggest that for me. It’s all fun and I love your defense of the Todd Squad. However, you need to take your losses like a man as I have done so many time in the past.

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

RiverCitySmitty — Sun, 21 Mar 2010 13:39:24 GMT

Well well. Esky has now dropped another 2 spots on the earnings list by sitting out the FD. Likely to drop at least one more spot next weekend, but maybe as many as 4 or 5 with the Sunland & LaD as well as the Play Doh Stakes @ Turfway. I think Zayat may be a tad PO`d @ GP for their switch.

Christine, what happened? Devil May Care`s win sure makes Jody Slew`s win in the Silverbulletday look more impressive. All East coast West coast with no respect for Midwest horses. Remember, several of the KyOaks winners in recent years have gone the FG path. I had Joannie`s Catch yesterday figuring she couldn`t run 2nd 4 times in a row. She proved me sorta right by running 3rd.

Not really a bad race by Rule, but he had to run faster than usual and it looked like it took its toll on him. Add another 8th on derby day and maybe even faster fractions and, well, he won`t be on any of my tickets.

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Coldfacts — Sun, 21 Mar 2010 13:05:33 GMT

Steve,

When you came out with your first Derby Dozen, I indicated that based on a pattern analysis I had undertaken, no horses from the Raise A Native sire line is likely to win the 2010 KD. Having posted such a bold statement, I have certainly set myself up to look like a complete idiot should one from this line win. Let me quickly remind all that the RAN sire line produced the winners of 7 of the 10 derbies contested in the last decade. Seven of the colts that have found a place in your last dozen are from the RAN sire line. It can truly be classified as the Raise A Native line versus the other. A true test of whether my pattern analysis is of any value would be the assess the performance of the RAN line versus others. The logical measure would be the major derby preps to date. I know some of your sharp supporters will quickly remind me that Mine That Bird did not win a derby prep so let me preempt them and highlight this fact. Below is a summation of the major preps to date and the sires responsible for the winners:

Sham - Alphies Bet by Tribal Rule ( Storm Cat)

Holy Bull – Winslow Homer – Unbridleds Song (RAN)

Lecomte – Ron The Greek - Full Mandate (A. P’ Indy)

San Rafael – Conveyance - Indian Charlie – (In Excess)

Risen Star – Discreetly Mine – Minsshaft – (A. P. Indy)

San Felipe – Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride (RAN)

Whirlaway – Peppie Knows – Stephen Got Even (A. P. Indy)

Southwest - Conveyance - Indian Charlie – (In Excess)

Sam Davis – Rule – Roman Ruler (RAN)

FOY - Eskendereya – Giant’s Causeway (Storm Cat)

Robert Lewis – Caracortado - Cat Dreams (Storm Cat)

El Camino Derby – Connemara - Giant’s Causeway (Storm Cat)

Gotham – Awesome Act – Awesome Again (Deputy Minister)

Rebel – Lookin At Lucky – (RAN)

Tampa Bay Derby – Odyssues – Malibu Moon - (A. P. Indy)

San Rafael – Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride (RAN)

Florida Derby - Ice Box – Tapit (A. P. Indy)

Of the 17 significant preps to date, the score reads Raise A Native sire line 5 and the others 12. If the pending Derby Dozen does not reflect a significant reduction in the number of RAN line contenders, then it will not reflect a true representation of advantage of the other lines. There are about seven significant preps remaining and the majority at 9F. It appears the stamina is in abundance in the category of others and I expect this category to dominate the remaining preps. It therefore appears that my pattern analysis is well on its way to validation..

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Sun, 21 Mar 2010 04:12:40 GMT

COLDFACTS,

Pleasant Prince did not win the race therefore you have no grounds on which to expect me to eat humble pie. Your jockey misjudged the finish (from your point of view) but I'd say the cold fact is that he got nailed by a stronger hell-for-leather closer. You have a cock-eyed excuse but I have a more plausable one for Rule's defeat. Its simple, he went too fast too early and just failed close home. Johnny V admitted that he should have backed off of those hot fractions but at least Todd Pletcher knows what he has to do for this one to rebound on Derby Day. Please don't even think about suggesting that Rule doesn't stay 10 Furlongs unless you can't read pedigree and pace, but I'm sure you can.

Rule lost this one but "Esky" is in a class by himself in the Wood. I know that 3YOs with certain pedigree configurations are improving overnight at this time of year so I wont be surprised by break-out performances. Nevertheless I don't see Eskendereya being beaten and I don't expect that Todd Pletcher will instruct Johnny V to turn on the afterburners until the first Saturday in May. Therefore continue to prepare for your diet of crow my friend. "Esky" will not let you get away with all those ridiculous arguments against his pedigree, fluent "Secretariat-like" galloping action and sheer star-power ...he's gonna get you on Derby Day and you are gonna begin to have nervous stomach following the running of the Wood Memorial. Remember that Ranagulzion told you so.

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Zookeeper — Sun, 21 Mar 2010 03:53:51 GMT

Coldfacts,

At Santa Anita today, I was telling a friend about your theory and that your pick was Pleasant Prince in the Fl. Derby. When she saw the odds, she ran and placed a modest $5 bet on him to Show. Now you're her hero! Good call Coldfacts! This was a very tough beat. What did Leparoux do wrong? After reading your comment, I watched the replay carefully and still didn't see anything. What am I missing?

re: March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Coldfacts — Sun, 21 Mar 2010 01:44:36 GMT

Ranagulzion

One down and one to go! The rider of Pleasant Prince must be having nightmares as he thought the race was over. He cost me a lot of money but live goes on. I am still awaiting the dish you are going to consume. You are allowed to consume half now and the other half late on the evening of the 27th.