MarketWatch Blog

Defining the Polarized Market

2017-07-05T15:42:00Z

By Eric Mitchell

Much has been written about the polarization of the Thoroughbred commercial market.

Within subgroups of sale horses by quality, we've seen a growing divide between what's paid for those perceived as the most desirable and those perceived as the next-best. But there is a broader polarization, too, which is beginning to put additional pressure on breeders as they make mating decisions.

This article analyzes the bigger picture and changes seen since 2013, when the chasm began to widen more appreciably between the higher and lower ends of the commercial market as determined by stud fee. It also identifies the borderline territory within which successful sales have become tougher to achieve.

The upper end of the Thoroughbred market is always the preferable place to be. Overall, higher prices are reflective of higher quality, and higher quality as a whole means more success at the races and in the breeding shed. Most adhere to the adage: "It costs the same to feed a cheap horse as an expensive horse," and pay for as much quality as one can afford.

Breeders and pinhookers have adjusted as buyers focus on the upper tier. Between 2013-16, the number of sales of yearlings bred on stud fees of $75,000 and up grew from 480 in 2013 to 655 in 2016. The percentage of profitable horses within this range has remained fairly steady, falling between 31%-45% for yearlings bred on stud fees of $100,000 or up and between 28%-45% for yearlings bred on fees in the $75,000-$99,999 range.

Return on investment at the top end did take a hit in 2016, falling from a recent high of 40% in 2014 to 14% in 2016 for yearlings bred on six-figure stud fees. The $75,000-$99,999 range also declined from 51% in 2013 to 3.1% in 2016. This may be an indication of the "all or nothing" buying behavior mentioned previously.

These declines in ROI, however, pale in comparison to what happened with yearlings bred on a fee in the $10,000-$14,999 range. The percent of profitable yearlings has not changed much, fluctuating between 20-26% over the past four years, but ROI has plunged from a losing 1% in 2013 to a declining 36% in 2016. Commercial performance is more grim among horses bred on fees under $10,000, but the relatively poor ROIs and low percent of profitable sales has not changed much since 2013.

The borderline of positive territory in the commercial market now appears to be the $15,000-$24,999 stud fee range. The yearling representing this range generated a 28% ROI with 32% profitable in 2013. This tier's performance in 2016 was a 1.4% ROI with 30% profitable. This segment of the market is not insignificant, having accounted for 24% of yearlings offered in 2016.

Tough decisions for breeders lie ahead.

"Before, sires were marketed by their average earnings per start or per starter," said Tony Lacy with Four Star Sales. "Now it is all about sales. There is an intersect between sales and racing, but it is very tricky to find that sweet spot right now."

Bull Market for Juveniles Driven by Quality

2017-04-11T13:16:00Z

By Ron Mitchell

Driven by the top of the market, the first four juvenile sales of 2017 resulted in a 12.2% increase in gross receipts, a 15.8% cumulative increase in average, and a decline in buy-backs as the marketplace becomes more polarized.

According to BloodHorse MarketWatch data, the Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream, Ocala Breeders' Sales Co.'s March sale, and April auctions conducted by Barretts in California and the Texas Thoroughbred Association have combined for $90.4 million in sales, with 489 horses sold, compared with $78.2 million for 429 sold at the four auctions in 2016.

The 169 not sold this year from 658 offered represents a 25.7% buy-back rate; last year, the RNA rate was 27.7% as 165 of the 594 through the ring went unsold for the first four 2-year-old sales.

A breakdown by price deciles shows 47 horses sold for $500,000 or above this year, with only three RNAs in that price range. By comparison, there were 28 such transactions during the first four juvenile sales of 2016, with three buy-backs at that level.

The $36.7 million grossed by the juveniles sold at the top of the market represents 40.5% of gross receipts for the four auctions, compared with $21.4 million, or 27.3% of the total, at the same juncture a year ago.

There have been eight horses sold in excess of seven figures, compared with six a year ago.

At the other end, of 382 offered within the sold or bought-back price range up to $99,999, the 136 that did not sell represented a 35.6% RNA rate. Last year, 113, or 39.6% of the 285 lower-end horses, were bought back.

Bloodstock agent Pete Bradley, who is active as a buyer and seller at major 2-year-olds in training sales, said the top of the market is being driven by an infusion of new buyers. He estimated seven or eight newcomers, either acting on their own behalf or through agents, have impacted the upper end so far this year.

"That is a huge influx of new people into a market as small as we have," he said.

Bradley said it's not surprising the RNA rate would be much higher for less expensive horses than those at the top. Consignors with better quality horses are more inclined to withdraw their offerings rather than send them through the ring and buy them back when there is sufficient buyer interest.

"When you have a high-priced yearling that you go to a 2-year-old sale with and it’s not getting vetted, it gets scratched," Bradley said. "The guys who play at that level say 'I'll take a shot and race it' so those horses are scratched more frequently than the cheaper horses. With cheaper horses you have the little guys—they are more reticent to race than to sell. So they have to run it through the ring even if I have one vet or zero vets on it."

Reassessing Value with RNA Prices

2017-04-04T13:34:00Z

By Eric Mitchell

The average price of a sire's progeny sold at auction is one our most trusted metrics of commercial value because money actually changed hands. An average sold price follows the adage that an item is worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

Prices that have not met a reserve also have a place in assessing value. True, no money was exchanged but in an open market the fall-of-the-hammer price does provide a meaningful indicator of a horse's value.

For this reason, BloodHorse MarketWatch compiled the sire averages for the year's first three 2-year-olds in training sales using both sold and unsold with RNA prices. The auctions included are the Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream sale, the Ocala Breeders' Sale Co.'s March sale, and the Barretts March sale. All sires ranked were represented by three or more offered.

The leading sire by average price for sold and RNA prices combined is Darley's Bernardini, who actually didn't have any buy-backs. The 14-year-old son of A.P. Indy had five juveniles sell for an average price of $543,600. M.V. Magnier bought his top seller for $1,450,000 at the Gulfstream sale out of the Hartley/De Renzo consignment.

Claiborne Farm's late sire Arch ranks second with a sold/RNA average of $530,000 for three offered. Arch only had two of three horses sell so he doesn't show up among the leading sires by average sold but they were certainly well received. Lawrence Best under the name OXO Equine paid $1,050,000 at the OBS March sale for a colt consigned by Tom McCrocklin. The second colt Klaravich Stable bought for $350,000 at the same sale out of Randy Bradshaw's consignment.

Gainesway's Tapit is the third-leading sire by the sold/RNA average with $526,429 for seven offered. The 16-year-old son of Pulpit and three-time leading sire edged out Bernardini to be the leading sire by average price for horses sold with $587,000 for five sold. Best also bought Tapit's highest-priced juvenile at the OBS March sale, paying $1.1 million for a filly out of grade 2-placed Arienza (Giant's Causeway) and sold by McCrocklin.

Rounding out the top five by sold/RNA average are Darley's Medaglia d'Oro with a $466,429 average for seven offered, and WinStar Farm's More Than Ready with a $428,857 average for seven offered. In the sold column, Medaglia d'Oro ranks third with a $500,833 average for six sold followed by More Than Ready with a $496,250 average for four sold.

A More Than Ready colt out of grade 3-placed Cowgirl Mally (Gone West) has the distinction of being the highest-priced RNA of the juvenile season so far after being bought back at the OBS March sale for $950,000. The colt was consigned by Cary Frommer, who had sold a More Than Ready—Tensas Punch colt at the Gulfstream sale to OXO Equine for $1.1 million.

Leading Sire Title Not Locked Up Yet

2017-03-28T13:41:00Z

By Eric Mitchell

The late Unbridled's Song appears to have already clinched the 2017 North American leading sire title with Arrogate's rich back-to-back victories in the $12 million Pegasus World Cup (G1) and $10 million Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline (G1).

Juddmonte Farms' 4-year-old juggernaut has grabbed $13 million in purses in two starts this year, raising his career earnings to $17,084,600. Now the richest North America-based racehorse in history, he is third among the highest earners worldwide behind Orfevre ($19,005,275) and Gentildonna ($18,468,392).

But should we dismiss any competition for the leading sire title from Gainesway's Tapit, who topped the rankings for the last three years and set a North American earnings record each time? Not quite yet.

Unquestionably, Tapit has a steep climb ahead if he's to be a serious challenge to Unbridled's Song. The 16-year-old son of Pulpit ranks fifth on the general leading sire list with $2,533,072 in earnings through March 25. He is the leading sire by both number of black-type stakes winners (8) and graded stakes winners (4).

Tapit's earnings to date are tracking behind what his progeny had accumulated through March 25 in 2014, 2015, and 2016. At this point in 2014, Tapit's runners had earned $2,898,336. (Note that these earnings include direct conversions from native currency to U.S. dollars and does not have Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore earnings on par with U.S. average purses as does the BloodHorse sire lists.) In 2015, Tapit runners had banked $3,566,935 in earnings, and in 2016, the earnings totaled $3,758,122.

If Tapit's year mirrors how his progeny performed in 2014, then he's on track to finish the year with about $15.8 million in progeny earnings. Close but still significantly north of the $13,800,913 Unbridled's Song's progeny have earned through March 25. If Tapit's 2017 season unfolds like it did in 2015 and 2016, when he had earned a greater portion of his total earnings by March 25, then his end of the year total could be between $13.5 million and $14.1 million, which will not get the job done.

It is worth noting that Tapit did not have either a Dubai World Cup winner or a Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner in any of his three record-setting years. His progeny could rally in the second half the year to give Unbridled's Song some competition.

If Arrogate, however, keeps improving off his already peerless performances, then Unbridled's Song not only gets the leading sire title but could be in position to challenge Tapit's most recent earnings record of $19,245,198. Plenty of intrigue among the leading sires still lies ahead.

Top 2-year-old Sires by Average Work Times and Prices

2017-03-21T13:55:00Z

By Eric Mitchell

With the first of 2-year-olds in training sales behind us, BloodHorse MarketWatch compiled a list of the leading sires by average under tack show times and compared the average prices among those sires.

The list, which included only sires with three or more sold, narrowed the field of 127 sires presented at either the Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream sale or the Ocala Breeders' Sales March auction down to 55. The average one-furlong under tack times by the progeny of the 55 sires ranged from :10 (all fractions in this article have been converted from fifths to tenths of a second) to :10.7. Among the 55 sires, 32 had at least one runner also work a quarter-mile.

The two sires sharing the lowest average time of :10 were Adena Springs Kentucky's Ghostzapper and Lane's End Farm's third-crop sire Twirling Candy.

Ghostzapper was represented by three juveniles sold so far this year; two worked an eighth-mile at the OBS March under tack show—one in :10.2 and one in :9.8—and another worked a quarter-mile in :21.4. His top seller was his fleetest, a filly out of the winning Arch daughter Gold Vault. The filly bred by Cherry Valley Farm is also a full sister to grade 1 winner Contested and a half sister to black-type stakes winners Mosler (War Front). The 17-year-old son of Awesome Again has a 2-year-old average of $453,333 so far this year.

Twirling Candy also had two work an eighth-mile—both in :10 at the OBS March sale—and one, a quarter-mile in :21.4. The son of Candy Ride's top seller so far is a filly out of Make Music (Unbridled's Song), that agent Steve Young bought for $210,000 out of the de Meric Sales consignment. The filly was bred in Kentucky by Will Farish with the E.J. Hudson Jr. irrevocable trust.

Five sires were co-ranked in third on the list with an average time of :10.1—Congrats, Majestic Warrior, Point of Entry, Prospective, and Wildcat Heir.

Among these WinStar Farm's Congrats had the highest overall average price of $653,333 for three sold. His average had the biggest boost from a the $1.7 million OBS March sale topper, a daughter out of Azalea Belle who agent Kerri Radcliffe bought out of the McKathan Brothers' consignment.

Among the sires with average eighth-mile times of :10.25 and below, six are freshman sires of 2017. Adena Springs' Point of Entry and Ocala Stud's Prospective had the lowest average times. Point of Entry's average price to date is $358,333, while Prospective has a $71,667 average.

The freshman sire with the highest average price is Claiborne's Orb, who had six sell for a $480,000 average. Hill 'n' Dale Farms' Violence has been represented by the most sold to date, with nine averaging $184,111. The son of Medaglia d'Oro had eight work an eighth-mile for an average of :10.2.

Leading Trainers of Maidens and Sophomores

2017-03-06T21:37:00Z

Two of the highest profile classes of horses a trainer will have in his barn are maidens and 3-year-olds. A relatively high percentage of maiden special weight wins indicates a trainer who has the ability and team to manage inexperienced horses and get their careers off to a good start, while the ability to successfully manage 3-year-olds is high on most owners' lists.

Each year BloodHorse MarketWatch publishes detailed statistics on the top 100 North American trainers by earnings (ranging from $23,134,394 for Chad Brown to $1,853,011 for John Toscano Jr.). This section will appear in the March 18 edition of BloodHorse.

Among these top trainers, we carved out the leaders by percentage of MSW wins and 3-year-old wins from starts in the respective categories to see which trainers have found success in both categories. With 3-year-olds, we identified 15 trainers with 25% or more wins in 2016. Then we sorted the list to identify 12 trainers with 25% or more MSW wins. Four trainers appeared on both lists: Brad Cox, Larry Jones, Jeff Radosevich, and Wesley Ward.

Midwest-based Radosevich, had the highest win percentages in both categories among the four trainers highlighted here, with 39% MSW wins from 41 starts and 30% 3-year-old wins from 178 starts. Radosevich began training in the fall of 1993 after a 14-year career as a jockey. The 55-year-old Richfield, Ohio, resident has 2,209 wins and career earnings of nearly $24 million. His top 3-year-old of 2016 was Loooch Racing Stables' Mo Dont No, who won the Steel Valley Sprint Stakes and the Best of Ohio Endurance Stakes.

Brad Cox leads the group of four by total 2016 earnings with $6,288,972. Cox, who began training in 2004, has 28% 3-year-old wins from 202 starts and 27% MSW wins from 101 starts. His top 3-year-olds included multiple stakes winners Cash Back and Extra Credit.

Jones leads the quartet by average earnings per runner with $44,832 out of 66 runners. He had 27% MSW wins from 70 starts and 25% wins with 3-year-olds out of 132 starts. In 2016 his top 3-year-olds were stakes winners He'll Pay, No Distortion, and Southern Girl. Jones, who began training in 1982, has 1,050 career wins and nearly $47.2 million in total earnings.

Ward has enjoyed far more success with maiden runners than any of other three trainers. Out of his almost $50 million in career earnings to date, he's made more than $15.3 million with maidens. Ward had 26% wins out of 117 MSW starts last year and 25% wins out of 167 starts with 3-year-olds. His best sophomore of 2016 was Acapulco, who was a group 2 winner at 2 and a listed stakes winner at 3. Otherwise his top runners in 2016 were juvenile stakes winners Silvertoni, Con Te Partiro, and Red Lodge.

Northern Afleet Best in Durability Study

2017-02-13T16:34:00Z

Sources of stamina among North American stallions seems to be getting leaner as judged by the recent release of the Grayson-Jockey Club Research Foundation's annual report of sire durability and soundness (see near pg. 66 in the Feb. 11 issue of BloodHorse).

Among the leading 30 stallions by starts per starter, 13 sires have died, two are pensioned, and three have been relocated to either Argentina or Australia.

The stallions included in the durability study are the top 200 sires by progeny earnings for the 2016 calendar year in order to assure relevance to the commercial breeding and sales market. The study's key statistics of starts per starter and percentage of starters from foals of racing age, however, are all lifetime statistics.

Combing through the study, one stallion consistently ranked among top sires by various statistics published.

Taylor Made Stallions' veteran Northern Afleet ranked among the top 10 by starts per starter, the top 20 by percentage of starters from foals of racing age, the top 10 by number of 2016 graded stakes winners 4 years old and up, and was in the top 12 by number of 2016 black-type stakes winners 4 years old and older. He stands for $6,500 this year.

The 24-year-old son of Afleet—Nuryette, by Nureyev, has 16 crops of racing age. He is the 16th-leading sire in the Grayson-Jockey Club study by percentage of starters from foals of racing age with 81.2%. If only active North American sires are considered, he is the seventh-leading sire behind More Than Ready (1,253 foals, 86.8% starters), Petionville (736, 86.1%), Weigelia (75, 85.3%), Langfuhr (1,328, 85.1%), Street Sense (466, 84.1%), and Mass Media (199, 81.4%).

By lifetime starts per starter, Northern Afleet is the third-leading active sire with 19.87 out of 1,328 foals of racing age. The top active sire in this category is Murmur Farm's Petionville, who has 21.26 starts per starter out of 736 foals. The 25-year-old son of Seeking the Gold stands for $5,000. Ranked second by starts per starter at 20.48 is Lane's End's Langfuhr, a 25-year-old son of Danzig, who stands this year for $5,000.

Among all sires—active, pensioned, and dead—the leaders by starts per starter are Mutakddim, a son of Seeking the Gold, who has 23.91 starts/starter out of 797 foals; and, former Maryland stalwart Not For Love, a son of Mr. Prospector, who has 21.90 starts/starter out of 974 foals. Mutakddim died in 2014, while Not For Love died in 2016.

Besides durability, Northern Afleet's runners have shown class as well. He is co-ranked in 12th by 2016 black-type stakes winners with five that were 4 years old and up and co-ranked in eighth place with three graded/group winners that were 4 or older. His graded/group winners last year include World Approval, winner of the United National Stakes (G1), Kaigun, winner of the Pan American Stakes (G2), and Baccelo, who won the Philip H. Iselin Stakes (G3).

Recent Juvenile Sale Cycle Points to Up Year for 2017

2017-02-06T16:12:00Z

Successful pinhookers are like long-term stock investors. They set their spending limits, buy as much quality as they can afford, and stick to the basic principles that identify performance potential in young Thoroughbreds.

Also like stock investors, they are savvy to market cycles and recognize when to stretch on their yearling purchases and when to be conservative.

The overall return on investments for yearling to juvenile pinhooks since 2012 shows a steady rise and fall that seems to mirror a collectively inescapable part of human nature. When the market is up, optimism drives more spending. Collectively pinhookers with fatter wallets invested more in their yearlings—either buying more expensive yearlings and/or buying more horses—only to later face a juvenile market that didn't share their optimism, according to recent history.

In 2012, the 2-year-old market enjoyed its second consecutive rise in ROI, albeit a modest 4% increase (25% ROI compared with 21% in 2011), as the Thoroughbred market recovered from the aftermath of the Great Recession. Buoyed by two consecutive years of growth, pinhookers stretched more on their yearling purchases, spending 14.2% more on average. They were rewarded in 2013 by a robust juvenile market in which the average price rose 15.4%, the percentage of profitable yearlings rose to 49% from 41%, and pinhooks generated a 33% ROI as a whole.

The pinhook market reacted by taking another big swing with its yearling purchases. The $44,421 average pinhook yearling price heading into the 2014 market was 14.6% higher than the previous year. One metric did indicate the 2014 juvenile market would not be as solid as what 2013 delivered: a slowing in the rate growth for the average 2-year-old price. The juvenile average price between 2011 and 2012 rose 23.6%. Between 2012 and 2013, the increase was 15.4%.

More yearlings bought at a higher average price were offered in 2014 and the juvenile market reacted by generating a 17% ROI, nearly half of what it was in 2013. The percentage of profitable horses dropped to 40% from 49% and the overall average 2-year-old price dipped 3.2%.

In 2015, pinhookers bought fewer horses but spent 8.5% more on average, reacting to the greater attention being paid on the top of the market. The ROI rose to 28%. For 2016, pinookers took a similar strategy, buying fewer yearlings but spending another 2.6% more on average. The supply and demand balance tipped back, however, the ROI fell to 21% and profitable purchases were down to 41% from 46%.

If pinhookers followed their instincts after the 2-year-old sales and were more conservative with their yearling purchases, then the juvenile market of 2017 should be another up year with a return to around 45% profitability and an ROI of around 30%.

Pegasus Puts Unbridled's Song on Top

2017-01-30T16:04:00Z

Nowhere is the impact of a $12 million race felt more keenly than on the general leading sire list for North America, where Unbridled's Song has made a meteoric rise to the top. In 1:47.61, the late son of Unbridled's progeny earnings went from $276,412 to $7,276,412.

Now with Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (G1) winner Arrogate primed for the rest of his 4-year-old campaign with the year-end target of another run in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), it is quite possible that Unbridled's Song could remain the leading sire largely off the outcome of a few races.

To further put in perspective how one race has influenced Unbridled's Song's ranking historically, his progeny earnings through Jan. 28—barely one month into the year—is more than his progeny have earned in all but three years since 2001. Unbridled's Song had his best year in 2016 with his progeny raking in $10,421,244 in purses. Arrogate was his chief earner with $4,084,600 for owner Juddmonte Farm.

Unbridled's Song previously had his second-best and third-best years by earnings in 2013 and 2008, respectively. In 2013 his progeny collected $9,509,946 led by Eclipse champion 3-year-old Will Take Charge, who won four graded stakes on his way to earning nearly $3 million. Unbridled's Song would finish 2013 ranked as North America's sixth-leading sire, the highest end-of-the-year ranking he's achieved on the general leading sire list. In 2008 Unbridled's Song was the 10th-leading sire with $7,287,632 in progeny earnings with his son Midshipman taking the title of chief earner with $1.38 million in prize money.

The sires of the second-, third-, and fourth-place finishers in the Pegasus World Cup also rose accordingly on the general leading sire's list.

Adena Springs' Ghostzapper, the sire of second-place finisher and Queen's Plate winner Shaman Ghost, is now ranked as the second-leading sire with $1,999,650. Ghostzapper (by Awesome Again) finished as the 20th-leading sire last year with $7,803,733 in earnings.

The late Harlan's Holiday, the sire of Pegasus World Cup third-place finisher Neolithic, is now the third-leading sire with $1,410,238 in earnings. Neolithic, whose best performance prior to the Pegasus World Cup was a second in the grade 3 Discovery Stakes, earned a cool $1 million for owner Starlight Racing for finishing 3 1/2 lengths behind Shaman Ghost, who was 4 3/4 lengths behind Arrogate.

One feature of the inaugural Pegasus World Cup was that all finishers from fourth through 12th received $250,000. This helped Keen Ice raise his sire Curlin's progeny earnings to $720,359 to date, good enough to put him in the fourth spot on the general leading sire list.

Arrogate's big payday had an equally powerful influence on the ranking of his broodmare sire, Distorted Humor. WinStar Farm's hallmark stallion is the leading North American broodmare sire with $7,669,535. The race bumped up Distorted Humor's lifetime average earnings index as a broodmare sire, too, from 1.63 before the Pegasus World Cup to 1.71.

Predicting Leading Freshman Sires of 2017

2017-01-23T15:29:00Z

Time to dust off the crystal ball and attempt to decipher which freshman sires of 2017 are likely to be at or near the top of the first-crop sire list at year's end. The only certainty in such an exercise is that someone will surprise us.

For the past few years, BloodHorse MarketWatch has published statistical profiles of the first-crop sires represented within the top 10% of yearlings sold at auction. These profiles are included in the Jan. 21 edition of BloodHorse on pages 44-46.

Early market success is certainly no guarantee of racing success, but the market narrows the field. We then look at other statistics that may indicate precociousness.

In broad terms, the top three first-crop sires of 2015 and 2016 shared the following: both had at least 90 live first-crop foals (more runners means more earnings); their first book of mares had a collective Comparable Index (CI) of 1.5 or higher and a Class Performance Index (CPI) of at least 2.5; and, at least 28% of first-crop dams were winners at 2.

There is one recent exception to the CI/CPI rule and that's Darby Dan's Dialed In—the leading freshman sire of 2016—who had a first book CI of 1.23 and CPI of 2.06. The son of Mineshaft did have other advantages, including the fourth-largest crop among freshman sires in the top 10% by yearling price and was among the top six sires of his class by the percentage of first-crop dams that produced 2-year-old winners (25%).

Among 2016's freshman sires only one scored consistently among the top by number of live foals, CI, CPI, percentage of dams with 2-year-old winners, percentage of dams that were winners at 2, and yearling average price. That was Lane's End's Union Rags, who finished as the second-ranked leading freshman sire. For 2015, the only sire who ranked consistently among these same categories was Ashford Stud's Uncle Mo, who was the leading freshman sire and this year's leading second-crop sire.

For 2017, again, one sire ranks among the top of these six statistical categories—Claiborne Farm's Orb. The son of Malibu Moon and winner of the 2013 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) had 101 live foals in 2015, a 2.06 CI, 4.75 CPI, 24% dams to produce 2-year-old winners, 56% dams that won at 2, and a yearling average exceeding $147,000.

Based on their statistical profiles, these other sires bear watching: Taylor Made Stallion's Graydar (103 foals/1.83 CI/3.05 CPI), Darley's Animal Kingdom (111/2.53 CI/4.59 CPI), Hill 'n' Dale Farm's Violence (128/1.53 CI/2.73 CPI, WinStar Farm's Take Charge Indy (107/1.69 CI/2.69 CPI), Ashford Stud's Shanghai Bobby (117/ 1.56 CI/2.44 CPI), and Spendthrift Farm's Jimmy Creed (96/1.68 CI/2.79 CPI).

Shanghai Bobby's first dams fall outside the overall CPI minimum and percentage of dams to produce 2-year-old winners seen among previous leading first-crop sires, but he has a solid percentage of dams that won at 2 and may have an edge as 2012 champion 2-year-old colt. The son of Harlan's Holiday will have plenty of opportunity with 117 first-crop foals.

Keeneland January's Leading Covering Sires

2017-01-18T13:57:00Z

Father and son Pioneerof the Nile and American Pharoah topped the leading covering sire ranks by gross and average at the five-day Keeneland January horses of all ages sale that ended Jan. 13.

Mares bred to American Pharoah, the 2015 Triple Crown winner who stands at Ashford Stud, attracted the highest gross of $955,000 and the highest average of $477,500 for only two sold out of seven offered. As an indication of how thin the offerings were by top covering sires at the January sale, however, five of the top 10 sires by gross were represented by only two purchases.

WinStar Farm's Pioneerof the Nile ranked second by gross and average, with total purchases equaling $610,000 and averaging $305,000 for two sold out of three offered.

American Pharoah's top seller was the unraced Mineshaft daughter Joyfully, who is out of the graded stakes producer Rejoicing (Forestry), the dam of grade 3 winners Divine Oath and Auntie Joy. The 4-year-old mare was sold for $575,000 to Oussama Aboughazale's International Equities Holding out of the Paramount Sales consignment. Joyfully delivered an Uncle Mo colt in 2016 and will be bred back to War Front, Aboughazale told BloodHorse earlier in the week.

An even closer to connection to leading second-crop sire Uncle Mo existed with Pioneerof the Nile's highest-priced mare as a covering sire, the winning Silver Deputy daughter Grosse Pointe Anne. The 10-year-old mare is a half sister to Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie) and the dam of stakes-placed winner Indian Annie (Indian Charlie). Gross Pointe Anne has an unnamed 2-year-old colt by Speightstown and had a filly by Pioneerof the Nile in 2016.

The third-ranked covering sire by average price is Spendthrift Farm's Into Mischief, who was represented by two mares averaging $157,000. His top seller was On the Backstreets, a multiple stakes-winning daughter of Street Boss, who Mulholland Springs as agent sold for $235,000 to Kempton, as agent for Not This Time/AFS. On the Backstreets' dam is Mutakaway, a winning daughter of Mutakddim and the producer of three winners out of three foals to start. On the Backstreets is her only stakes winner to date. The family has also produced grade 3 winner Jet Stream and grade 1-placed winner Western Justice.

Three other sires who will be represented by their first crop this year were among the leading covering sires by average price: Honor Code, ranked fourth at $145,000; Liam's Map, ranked sixth with $124,000; and Tonalist, ranked 10th with a $71,667 average. All three sires stand at Lane's End Farm.

2017 Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale

Top Covering Sires by Average

(min. 2 sold)

Sire	Offered	Sold	Average	Median
American Pharoah	7	2	$477,500	$477,500
Pioneerof the Nile	3	2	$305,000	$305,000
Into Mischief	3	2	$157,500	$157,500
Honor Code	2	2	$145,000	$145,000
City Zip	2	2	$130,000	$130,000
Liam's Map	5	3	$124,000	$140,000
Street Sense	3	2	$118,500	$118,500
Hard Spun	4	4	$89,625	$73,500
Union Rags	4	2	$73,500	$73,500
Tonalist	8	3	$71,667	$45,000

MW Interview: Sean Feld Talks About Climax Stallions

2017-01-18T13:43:00Z

Last fall the family team of bloodstock agent Bob Feld, his son Sean Feld, and trainer Mark Feld, put a name to a concept they had been testing since Bullet Train—half brother to European champion Frankel—retired to stud in 2013. Climax Stallions is the Felds' new stallion syndication venture that is modeled more similarly to racehorse syndications. BloodHorse MarketWatch editor Eric Mitchell talked with Sean Feld about the new company, which is now recruiting investors for its most recent acquisition, grade 1 winner Haynesfield.

BloodHorse MarketWatch: Where did the idea for Climax Stallions originate?

Sean Feld: Bullet Train was our guinea pig. We were looking for a way to attract non-horse people, so we got a lot of professional business types who watched horse racing and gambled on the weekends but had never owned a horse. That went pretty well so my uncle Mark saw this opportunity to get people involved in the game on the stallion side instead of through pinhooking or buying a small piece of a racehorse.

BH: How does your stallion syndication differ from more traditional stallion syndications?

SF: The minimum buy-in is 10%, and you don't get any breeding rights, which fits with our target audience that doesn't own mares. You just own a 10% equity in the stallion. Our goal is to use stallions that can stand on their own merit and don't need a lot of inside support. There is power in numbers, but we feel if you can find the right stallion for the right price, then we'll get enough mares regardless of who owns him. Investors are responsible for 10% of the expenses and entitled to 10% of the profits.

We are selling the dream that Haynesfield or Curlin to Mischief could be a good cash generator if they hit. Your initial costs are less and your risk is less than with a racehorse in training.

BH: Action is a key attraction in owning a racehorse. Can a stallion syndicate investor get the same rush?

SF: Certainly owning a racehorse is the most fun, but we feel there is still a lot of action with the stallions. My uncle, who (races as) Lucas Downs, is an action junkie. He likes the stallion thing because with Bullet Train, for example, he had 45 2-year-olds last year, so he feels he owns a piece of every one of his progeny.

BH: Why did you decide to acquire Haynesfield last fall?

SF: Bullet Train and Curlin to Mischief are sold out. The luxury with Haynesfield is the investor doesn't have to wait like he does with the new guys. Haynesfield has had four crops and averaged over 90 mares a year his first four years at stud. Since we bought Haynesfield, we've been tracking the entries and he's got one or two every day. It is a lot of action for someone who is a novice.

And the timing was good. He had an impressive maiden winner at Fair Grounds Jan. 8 in Midway Gold. We're pretty excited about him.

Book Size Signals Fluctuating Popularity for Stallions

2014-11-19T15:00:00Z

By Nicole Sauer

A sire's career typically hinges on his first 2-year-olds, no matter what the initial market opinion was of the horse when he first entered stud. Occasionally that first crop vaults a stallion from obscurity (Malibu Moon, for example), but more often the opposite happens when the first crop fails to meet expectations.

	Avg. Finish in Preakness	Avg. Finish in Belmont
All Derby Starters	4.67	4.63
All Non-Derby Starters	6.88	6.41
Derby Winners	2.57	3.00

Horse	Sale	Year	Sale Price	Earnings	ROR
Blind Luck	FTKJUL	2008	$11,000	$3,279,520	29,714%
Mine That Bird	FTKOCT	2007	$9,500	$2,248,496	23,568%
Evening Jewel	KEESEP	2008	$8,000	$1,221,399	15,167%
General Quarters	KEESEP	2007	$20,000	$1,226,655	6,033%
Big Brown	FTKOCT	2006	$60,000	$3,614,500	5,924%

Horse	Sale	Year	Sale Price	Earnings	ROR
Musical Romance	OBSAPR	2009	$22,000	$1,681,885	7,545%
Haynesfield	KEEAPR	2008	$20,000	$1,319,481	6,497%
Kara's Orientation	KEEAPR	2009	$7,000	$455,127	6,402%
Secret Gypsy	FTMMAY	2007	$10,000	$596,926	5,869%
Homeboykris	OBSMAR	2009	$11,000	$457,109	4,056%

Sire	Foals	CI	CPI
Blame
Concord Point
Desert Party
Discreetly Mine
Eskendereya
Hold Me Back
Kantharos
Line of David
Lookin At Lucky
Majesticperfection
Midshipman
Munnings
Quality Road
Summer Bird
Super Saver
Tale of Ekati
Temple City
Tizdejavu
Warrior's Reward

Horse	Sale	Year	Sale Price
Panty Raid	KEENOV	2003	$17,000
Flat Out	KEENOV	2005	$5,000
Super Saver	KEENOV	2006	$160,000
Mucho Macho Man	KEENOV	2007	$33,000
Octave	KEEJAN	2004	$230,000
Gio Ponti	KEEJAN	2005	$250,000
Rail Trip	KEEJAN	2005	$70,000
Plum Pretty	KEEJAN	2008	$170,000

	First-Crop Foals	First-Crop CI	First-Crop CPI
Minimum	45	1.14	1.41
Average	92	2.48	3.99

MarketWatch Blog

Defining the Polarized Market

Bull Market for Juveniles Driven by Quality

Reassessing Value with RNA Prices

Leading Sire Title Not Locked Up Yet

Top 2-year-old Sires by Average Work Times and Prices

Leading Trainers of Maidens and Sophomores

Northern Afleet Best in Durability Study

Recent Juvenile Sale Cycle Points to Up Year for 2017

Pegasus Puts Unbridled's Song on Top

Predicting Leading Freshman Sires of 2017

Keeneland January's Leading Covering Sires

2017 Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale

Top Covering Sires by Average

MW Interview: Sean Feld Talks About Climax Stallions

Book Size Signals Fluctuating Popularity for Stallions

Identifying Profitable Yearlings In-Utero at Keeneland November

Leading Sires Capitalize on Strong Books

Finding Value in Young Sires at Keeneland September

Buyers Reward Quick Breeze Times

Leading Yearling Sales by Racing Performance

Belmont Stakes Slowing Down, Epsom Derby Speeding Up

Skipping the Preakness Increasingly Popular for Derby Starters

Debunking the Curse of Apollo?

Voting Open for MarketWatch Broodmare of the Year

Juvenile Sales Offer Better Return for Buyers

Comparing 2014 Freshman Sires to Previous Champion First-Crop Sires

In Utero Foals: November vs. January