MarketWatch Blog

Surviving the Recession -- 2010 Stud Fees

sgillies — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 12:44:00 GMT

It was during the Keeneland September auction a year ago that we first saw the devastating impact of a plummeting economy on Thoroughbred sales. The large scale of the industry's largest yearling sale makes it a bellwether for every tier of commercial Thoroughbred breeding, and it quickly became clear that the recession would leave little room for profit at any level. Chatter from the shed rows to the sales pavilion a year ago centered on what would need to change — quickly — to avoid a repeat of the unsustainable losses suffered by breeders.

Not long after the final hips walked through the ring, farms began to announce stud fee reductions for the 2009 breeding season. The move was inevitable; basic economics dictates that mare owners cannot afford to invest more in stud fees than they can expect to receive at auction for the resulting foals. A first round of stallion season cutbacks was modest; a follow-up fee reduction from many stud farms became necessary after early booking rates dropped drastically. The industry as a whole witnessed a decrease of 20 to 25% in average advertised stud fees.

A year later, Keeneland's giant yearling sale again rewarded few breeders with runaway profits; many more were forced to sell regardless of loss just to recoup a fraction of their investments. Many broodmare owners are gunshy as they anticipate the upcoming breeding season; it's not hard to believe that they will expect, or even demand, similar stud fee reductions for 2010. Stallion owners, of course, feel the impact as well and are not keen to see further drops in revenue. Several farms had even indicated that 2009 fee drops were one-time specials; they hoped not to have to maintain the lower rates and certainly wish to avoid additional cuts. This disconnect makes watching for the industry's annual stud fee announcements an even more compelling sport over the next few months.

The Blood-Horse MarketWatch would like to know the expectations of its readers — the Thoroughbred industry professionals who closely monitor breeding and sales trends — for 2010 stud fees. Will farms be able to maintain 2009 rates? Will some attempt to revert to pre-recession stallion season pricing? Or, if additional cuts are called for, how much lower will rates fall? Our new survey will identify how different groups — breeders, stallion managers, industry observers — see the situation. The electronic survey will run through October 18, and results will be reported shortly thereafter.

Linda Rice is finally rewarded for her hard work and dedication

emitchell — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 13:31:00 GMT

A clear example of how hard work and dedication can pay off is New York trainer Linda Rice. After grinding it out every day at the barns for 22 years, Rice captured her first training title this summer at Saratoga. She is the first woman trainer to win the title at this historic track. Rice had 20 wins during the 38-day meet, edging out Todd Pletcher by one win.

“As we went later in the meet, I was one up, and then Todd was two up,” Rice said. “Of course, I'm looking at the horses standing in my barn and not sure I could follow through. I was concerned for the last couple of days because I didn't have the right horses in. I placed a few horses pretty aggressively last week and it worked.”

Rice's career has been on a marked upswing for the past five years. The Blood-Horse MarketWatch publishes trainers statistics in its March edition and shows how the top 250 trainers by earnings fared during the previous year with horses of specific ages and in specific types of races. In 2004, Rice was ranked 128th with $1,389,239 in total earnings from 288 starts. She had 13% wins (38) from starts (288) and 7% stakes wins (4) from stakes starts (21). For 2008, Rice's rank jumped to 51st with $2,614,408 in total earnings. Her percentage of wins (79) from starts (405) was 20%, and her percentage of stakes wins (6) from stakes starts (54) was 11%. Rice has built a reputation for being particularly good with young horses. Her percentage of 2-year-olds wins from 2-year-old starts in 2008 was a healthy 25%, making her the 35th leading trainer in North America by this statistic.

Rice, 45, is also no stranger to breaking new ground. She became the first woman trainer to win a grade I race at Keeneland in 1998 when Tenski won the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. — Eric Mitchell

Do Certain Thoroughbred Races Produce Successful Stallions?

emitchell — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 17:20:00 GMT

Airdrie Stud owner Brereton Jones has often said he looks for a good miler when prospecting for a new stallion. While certainly not his only criteria, a quick glance down Airdire's current stallion roster shows a number of horses whose resumes include victories or good placings in one-mile stakes — Divine Park (grade I Metropolitan Mile); Badge of Silver (second twice in the grade I Cigar Mile Handicap; Istan (Ack Ack Handicap (gr. III), Governor's Handicap); Slew City Slew (grade III Salvator Mile Handicap).

The Triple Crown and the Breeders' Cup Championships give horses strong credentials but does that translate into breeding success? The editors at The Blood-Horse MarketWatch want to know if certain races or certain types of race have a history of producing good stallions and we're asking for your help. We've put together a poll to solicit your opinion and narrow down the field of races. After we have the results, we'll do the research and let you know in the fall if the perceptions match the reality.

Thanks for participating!— Eric Mitchell

Special Report for Keeneland September is Now Available

emitchell — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 13:01:00 GMT

The Blood-Horse MarketWatch has just released a special report packed with sire statistics and prospective pinhook information for the upcoming Keeneland September Yearling sale marathon. The special report is available free to MarketWatch subscribers on the MarketWatch Web site. Any subscriber who has not registered on the Web site can do so from the home page but you'll need your customer ID number. The easiest route is to call our customer service department at 1-800-582-5604 and a representative will help you get set up. Once you're logged in to the site you'll have immediate access to other special reports and a rich archive of past issues going back to 1997.

If you are not a MarketWatch subscriber, you can still purchase the report through BloodHorse.com. But serious players in Thoroughbred breeding and racing should not pass up the opportunity to receive the comprehensive analysis and statistics provided each month. We now offer a digital-only subscription for $179, which is more than half off the print subscription price. It's been said many times that the Thoroughbred racing business is a numbers game. Knowledge is what puts the odds in your favor. — Eric Mitchell

The Influence of Stallion Owners at Public Auctions

emitchell — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 14:14:00 GMT

Stallion owners are typically active at public auction. The tremendous influence of the commercial market on breeding nowadays requires it. Nothing can damage a sire’s value more than letting a few low-priced horses slip through, driving down the average yearling price. To what extent this price protection occurs is speculation, but it does occur.

The recent Fasig-Tipton Saratoga select yearling sale included 11 purchases by buyers who have direct ties to the sires of the yearlings purchased. In fairness, all the sires were either young, fashionable stallions or proven sires with high-profile runners. The yearlings would have been attractive regardless of the connection. Let’s take the skeptic’s view, however, and accept that a buyer in these 11 incidences — which totaled $7,475,000 and averaged $679,545 — cannot be completely detached about the link between a sale horse’s value and a stallion’s value.

So what does the market look like if these horses are taken out of the mix? Not too bad, actually. The average for all 160 horses sold at the select Saratoga sale was $328,434, up 11.1% from 2008’s average. Taking out the purchases with obvious sire–buyer connections, the average falls to $302,513, which is still 2.29% higher than 2008’s average of $295,738. The median also stayed in the black, remaining at $250,000 compared with the 2008 median of $227,500.

It should be noted that a review of the 2008 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale revealed only two purchases with an obvious sire–buyer connection. Those purchases totaled $1,425,000 and averaged $712,500.

For the owners of select-quality yearlings, it should be encouraging to know a genuine demand exists for these horses, and a premium price is attainable even in the dour economic climate we’re in. It is a good omen, at least for the opening two days of the Keeneland September sale. — Eric Mitchell

Stroll is Back in the USA

emitchell — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 17:04:00 GMT

I am glad to see Stroll returning to Claiborne Farm after having spent a couple years in Italy. The grade I turf star and a son of Claiborne's hot sire Pulpit has seven stakes winners in his first crop, which were 2-year-olds of 2008. As a second-crop sire he is currently co-ranked ninth by number of stakes winners (3) along with Congaree, Even the Score, Chapel Royal, and Birdstone. His chief earner for this year is Afternoon Stroll, who the Appalachian Stakes (gr. IIIT) as a 50-1 longshot then finished a respectable sixth in a field of 14 in the American Oaks (gr. IT).

We've been watching for Stroll's return because of the strong performance of his first crop. The sire was also a standout when assess by the MarketWatch Index, a sire rating developed by The Blood-Horse MarketWatch that combines the performance success with the earning power of a sire's progeny. You read more about Stroll's MWI on the MarketWatch blog post of April 28. — Eric Mitchell

It's Good to See Private Sales Published

emitchell — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 12:42:00 GMT

No one could have blamed Fasig-Tipton executives for not including private sales in the results for the recent Kentucky July yearling sale. By excluding the out-of-the-ring transactions, the final numbers would have looked a bit brighter. The average price for 241 horses would have been $81,216 instead of $77,716 (down 12% instead of 15.8%) and the median would have been $60,000 instead of $55,000 (down 20% instead of 27%). Instead the Lexington-based auction house published in its hip-by-hip results the sales of 27 horses that failed to meet their reserves but found new homes back in the barns. Together the private sales totaled $1,255,000 and averaged $46,481.

Despite the depressive effect on the sale’s overall statistics, I’m glad Fasig-Tipton chose to include the private sales. These transactions give everyone a bit more information for assessing the commercial strength of a sire’s progeny. RNA (reserve not attained) prices get you in the ballpark but real dollars changing hands is more meaningful.

The market was down as expected but it was a solid sale. Sometimes average prices are heavily influenced by a couple high-priced stars or several really cheap horses. One way to accommodate for this and assess the real health of a sale is to exclude some of the most expensive and least expensive horses from the results. For the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July sale I took out the top five highest-priced horses and the five least expensive horses and then recalculated the gross, average, and median (including the private sales). The adjusted average dropped slightly to $73,200 (down 18.3%). The percent change, incidentally, is from the 2008 average minus the top five selling horses and the bottom five. The adjusted gross didn’t fall appreciably more with the top five and bottom five eliminated, dropping 29% as compare with the adjusted gross of 2008 and well within the anticipated decline of 25-30%. The gross for the sale overall was $20,828,000, down 26% from a year ago.

Overall, the top end of the market fared well. The Aug. 1 edition of The Blood-Horse reported that 20 horses sold for $200,000 or more compared with 26 in 2008, and the buy-back rate improved slightly to 36.8% from 38.8% a year ago. These statistical glimmers of hope along with a growing stock market (the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 3% since the Kentucky July sale) are good signs for Fasig-Tipton heading into the Saratoga sale Aug. 10-11. — Eric Mitchell

First-Crop Thoroughbred Yearling Sires to Watch in '09

emitchell — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 13:14:00 GMT

The June issue of The Blood-Horse MarketWatch includes 10 profiles of 2009's leading first-crop yearling sires to watch, based on their 2008 weanling medians. These insightful profiles were written by pedigree expert Alan Porter and international bloodstock consultant Michael Youngs. We actually had 12 profiles to run but wound up with only room for 10 in the print edition. So we're running the other two profiles here. The first of these bonus profiles is Lane's End Farm's Aragorn.

Photo by Tony Leonard/Courtesy of Lane's End Farm

Aragorn began his career in Ireland, where he finished second in his only start at 2, and won a seven-furlong maiden and was third in a listed race in England at 3. Brought to the U.S., he won the Oak Tree Derby (gr. IIT). At 4, Aragorn developed into a top-class miler with a deadly turn of foot, winning the Eddie Read Handicap and Shoemaker Breeders’ Cup Mile (both gr. IT), and the Del Mar Breeders’ Cup Handicap and Oak Tree Breeders’ Cup Mile (both gr. IIT). His only defeats that year were seconds in three graded stakes, two of them grade I, one of which was the NetJets Breeders’ Cup Mile (gr. IT).

Aragorn’s sire, Giant’s Causeway, was the best racing son of Storm Cat, and has established himself as his sire’s best stallion son. He has sired group/grade I winners on dirt (where his best have been out of mares with speed in their background), turf, and all-weather (where they have been particularly adept). Out of a Mr. Prospector mare, Aragorn comes from a classic European family — his third dam, Valoris II, won the Epsom Oaks and Irish One Thousand Guineas and is half-sister to the Prix du Jockey-Club (French Derby) winner Val de Loir, himself a top-class sire. Aragorn’s granddam, Savannah Dancer, a daughter of Northern Dancer, was a graded stakes winner and is granddam of French champion 3-year-old State Shinto.

Sixteen Aragorn weanlings were sold in the U.S. last year, averaging $35,169, with a high price of $100,000 realized by a colt out of Chalamont (IRE). She is a daughter of Kris (GB) (by Sharpen Up (GB), a line that has worked well under Storm Cat), out of the group I winner and producer Durtal (IRE). Chalamont has produced the black-type winner Secret Garden (IRE) and is granddam of Italian group winner Wickwing (GB). Internationally, the top price for an Aragorn weanling was the near-$330,000 achieved in Japan by a foal out of Lively Tune. She is a Dixieland Band daughter (meaning the colt is bred on a similar cross to Giant’s Causeway’s juvenile star First Samurai), and is half-sister to graded stakes winners Living Vicariously and With Distinction (by Storm Cat), and to the dam of graded stakes winner Sightseeing.

Aragorn, whose first-year fee was $30,000 at Lane’s End Farm, came good toward the end of his 3-year-old campaign and was outstanding at 4. One would generally not expect him to get early runners (although inbreeding to his broodmare sire, Mr. Prospector, might help in that regard), and his offspring are most likely to be suited by turf and all-weather tracks. — Alan Porter

Brand Conscious

emitchell — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 14:38:00 GMT

Your name is your brand. This is particularly true for the consignors, buyers, and breeders of Thoroughbred horses, but a relatively small percentage of industry professionals recognize it. I know this because I’ve just spent three days matching up buyer and consignor names for The Blood-Horse MarketWatch’s annual yearling season preview study. The preview includes the performance records of yearlings previously offered at public auction and compiled by buyer name and consignor name. Before this study can be run, however, more than 13,000 names have to be reviewed and some of them combined. Here’s why.

Each variation of a consignor’s or buyer’s name gets a separate identification code in The Jockey Club database. This means the buyers "Robert Smith, agent," "Bob Smith, agent," "Robert Smith," and "R. Smith" all get individual records even though they represent the same person. A misspelled name, for example, "Hobert Smith," also gets a separate record. I try to determine whether R. Smith and Robert Smith are the same person by scouring records on the Web, comparing buying histories for each variation of the name and contacting the sale companies. Even this research doesn’t always provide a definitive answer so the records don’t get combined. What this means for our fictitious buyer is that he may not get listed in our study because the number of horses bought under the individual variations of his name fall below our minimum threshold of yearlings purchased, which was 24 in last year’s study. We use a minimum because the study includes data from multiple years, and we want to focus on the most commercially active buyers and sellers.

Let’s say the records under each variation of Robert Smith looked like this:

Robert Smith, agent; 7 purchased, 5 winners (71%), 1 stakes winner (14%), 1 graded stakes winner (14%)

Bob Smith, agent; 15 purchased, 9 winners (60%), 1 stakes winners (7%), 1 graded stakes winner (7%)

Robert Smith; 10 purchased, 8 winners (80%), 3 stakes winners (30%), 1 graded stakes winners (10%)

R. Smith; 8 purchased, 4 winners (50%), 3 stakes winners (37.5%), 1 graded stakes winner (12.5%)

None of this would appear in the study because the number of horses purchased by each entity falls below the minimum. If the buyer signed "Robert Smith, agent" for all his purchases, however, then the record would appear like this in the study:

Robert Smith, agent; 40 purchased, 26 winners (65%), 8 stakes winners (20%), 4 graded stakes winners (10%)

Frank Stronach, who has been named North America’s leading breeder for six consecutive years, realized the importance of having all his horses under one name nearly a decade ago when he covered the cost of having The Jockey Club amend the registry so all the horses he’s bred are under one name — Adena Springs. Not everyone can afford to have records amended in The Jockey Club database, and changing sale records is tricky anyway because the names in the catalogs and on sale tickets is the "official" record. So, I have some recommendations that are easy to implement.

1. Decide on a name and use it for all sale transactions. Don’t buy some horses in your spouse’s name and some in your children’s names just so they show up in the results for that particular sale. Don’t switch between your name and your farm/business name.

2. Be consistent in using that name. If you want to include your middle initial, then include it every time.

3. If you buy or sell a lot of horses with partners then consider identifying yourself as an agent each time. If you must include the names of partners or clients, then consider: Robert Smith & Partners (T. London) or Robert Smith, agent (J. Blanchard). This at least provides a common thread to the partnerships. — Eric Mitchell

When the Select Juvenile Market Becomes More Selective

emitchell — Tue, 26 May 2009 14:14:00 GMT

The Blood-Horse MarketWatch’s May issue includes a review of the select 2-year-olds in training season, which fared worse than expected with an overall drop in rate of return for pinhooked horses. The ROR fell to 30% from 82% in the 2008. Now these statistics apply only to pinhooked horses, meaning those purchased previously at public auction as yearlings with the intent of reselling them as juveniles. MarketWatch leans heavily on pinhooking statistics to analyze the markets for the most obvious reason — the commercial market tells us what a horse is worth on either end of the process. Pinhooks also make up a substantial segment of the market. In the case of the select 2-year-old sales, pinhooked horses made up 64.3% of the 882 horses offered.

While the market was down overall, there was one slender segment that significantly outperformed all the others. These were the pinhooks purchased as yearlings for less than $20,000. Of the 35 horses in this price range offered, 60% were sold (21 horses) and 43% (15) were profitable. This group generated a 120% ROR for its consignors, an increase from 63% for the same price range in 2008. The horses were slightly more expensive as yearlings, averaging $14,048 compared with an average of $13,000 for the comparable group of 2008. The average price for this price range as 2-year-olds, however, spiked 39.7% to $74,286, up from $53,176 a year ago.

Another significant change occurred with pinhooks purchased in the $50,000-$74,999 yearling price range. The ROR for this group fell to 6% from 112% during the 2008 select seasons. The average 2-year-old price for this segment of the market dropped nearly 50% to $86,553 from $172,045 a year ago.

What happened with these two segments of the market may be related. Among the eight yearling price ranges MarketWatch uses to analyze the market, RORs were the highest for the bottom three — pinhooked horses that sold for $39,999 or less as yearlings. Buyers clearly had less money to spend and were shopping for bargains. This means less interest at the top and upper-middle segments of the market and more interest in the less expensive horses. More interest means more competition, which generally means higher prices. — Eric Mitchell

Curlin's Full Brother and His Nurse Mare...Her Name is Suzie

emitchell — Mon, 11 May 2009 19:23:00 GMT

A video published May 8 of Curlin’s full brother sparked a lot of comments because the foal is seen romping in a paddock with a black and white paint mare that is obviously not his mother, Sherriff’s Deputy (who is seen at the beginning of the video). Yes, the foal is being raised on a nurse mare.

"[Sherriff’s Deputy] is simply not capable of raising a foal on her own," said Shannon White with Fares Farm, which bred two-time Horse of the Year Curlin. "She has a limited range of motion because of an arthritic knee, so it is tough for her to keep up with a foal. Her milk production is also limited." White said the knee does not bother Sherriff’s Deputy during pregnancy.

So, the foal is being raised by Suzie, a registered Walking Horse and professional nurse mare. Suzie did have a foal, who is now being fed on milk replacer and who will grow up to become someone’s show horse or pet, according to White.

Many in the Thoroughbred business are using Walking Horses or Quarter horses as nurse mares because their milk production is comparable to that of Thoroughbreds. There was a time when draft breeds were the nurse mares of choice, but these horses produced too much milk. Excessive nutrition in young horses has been linked to the development of osteochondritis dessicans (OCD) lesions.

White said Suzie and the other nurse mares Fares Farm uses are not just bit players in the operation. They all have names, personalities, and histories.

"They’re real people to us," she said. — Eric Mitchell

Smart Strike is a Rising Broodmare Sire

emitchell — Wed, 06 May 2009 13:02:00 GMT

Since 2003 The Blood-Horse MarketWatch has published an annual analysis of the top 400 broodmare sires by their Average Earnings Indexes (AEI). This year's study, which is featured in the April issue, includes Smart Strike for the first time because his daughters' progeny met the minimum criteria of five North American runners in 2008 and lifetime earnings of at least $5 million. Smart Strike, the broodmare sire of newly minted Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner Mine That Bird, not only qualified but ranks among the leading 12 "young" broodmare sires. He is one of the youngest stallions on the "sires to watch" leaders list along with French Deputy and Unbridled's Song, who all had their first crops as broodmare sires foal in 2001.

MarketWatch associate editor Scot Gillies wrote in an analysis: While stock in Smart Strike has shot skyward in the wake of Curlin's repeated Horse of the Year seasons, the son of Mr. Prospector is also making a name for himself through the progeny of his daughters. He makes this year's broodmare sire list despite having less than 10% producers from fillies, one of only two stallions [of 404 on the list] to do so.

The study includes both AEIs and the Comparable Indexes (CI) for the 400+ broodmare sires and a graphic that illustrates how the AEI and CI is calculated for broodmare sires. The issue also includes leaders lists by lifetime AEI, percentage of stakes winners from foals, and by highest percentage of producing daughters.

A standing ovation for Birdstone and Borel

emitchell — Sat, 02 May 2009 23:02:00 GMT

Calvin Borel's unbridled joy as he paraded his 50-1 shot Mine That Bird toward the winner's circle at Churchill Downs today is the elixir that could help revive horse racing. You didn't have to wager a dime on this horse to fully share in the moment. I was also thrilled to see a son of classic winner Birdstone taking the Kentucky Derby (gr. I). He is definitely a sire to watch. The MarketWatch Index (see the April issue of The Blood-Horse MarketWatch) ranked Birdstone second among the freshman sires of 2008 with a 3.00. He was the only North American first-crop sire besides the leading sire Tapit to have an MWI of 3.00 or higher.

Thanks again, Calvin. And Birdstone, we'll be looking for more from you. — Eric Mitchell

A Stroll to the Top

emitchell — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 17:46:00 GMT

It was Tax Day, and I was finishing up the MarketWatch Index calculations for the 2008 freshman sires. I re-sorted the spreadsheet so the sires would rank from highest to lowest by their MWIs, expecting to see Tapit rise to the top. But he didn't. Tapit was second to Stroll, the grade I-winning son of Pulpit who was bred and raced by Claiborne Farm. Stroll is not only the leading freshman sire, he is the leading sire by a pretty wide margin.

Stroll has an MWI of 5.02, which is the second-highest index calculated for a freshman sire since The Blood-Horse MarketWatch began publishing the MWI in its current format in 2005. The highest index belongs to Successful Appeal, who had a 5.85 as a freshman sire of 2004. Tapit has an MWI of 3.65, which is still very strong. What put Stroll on top was his 8% stakes winners (of at least $50,000) from foals and his 3% graded stakes winners from foals.

How about that, I think. The top freshmen by the MWI are both sons of Pulpit. Then I do a little research on Stroll and discover he is not standing at Claiborne anymore. He was relocated for the 2008 season to Azienda Agricola Mediterranea in Parma, Italy, where he stands for 12,000 euros. While at Claiborne, Stroll's fee started at $7,500 and dropped to $5,000 for 2007. Stroll didn't make it into our final list of leading freshman sires because he is no longer standing in North America, but it didn't take long to get reminded about why he is at the top of the list. On April 16 at Keeneland, a daughter of Stroll named Afternoon Stroll captured the grade III Applachian Stakes. It was her first start on the turf, and she went off at 50-1. Afternoon Stroll became her sire's second graded stakes winner. The first was Van Lear Rose, who won the Mazarine Stakes (gr. III) at Woodbine and was Canadian's champion 2-year-old filly for 2008.

So why did Stroll leave? Well, his first obstacle as a sire in the United States was that he won all his best races on the turf. Stroll did well as a 2-year-old, finishing in the money three times out of five starts, but all his best performances, again, were on the grass. Next, Pulpit's star as a sire of sires was yet to rise. The result was 58 mares bred to Stroll in 2005, 25 mares in 2006, and 11 mares in 2007.

Now we wait to see if Stroll will join the ranks of expatriate U.S. stallions that have thrived abroad. Perhaps he'll become the Sunday Silence of Italy. — Eric Mitchell

Sir Harry Lewis: Last In a Line of Great Damsires

sgillies — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 01:32:00 GMT

This week came the sad news that 1987 Budweiser Irish Derby (Ire-I) winner Sir Harry Lewis has died. (An interesting note for you equine health purists: the Racing Post lists the cause of death as a "heart attack," terminology that is medically inaccurate but commonly used in cases of equine aortic aneurysms and atrial fibrillation.) By coincindence, Sir Harry Lewis came up in a study I worked on this past month, so I thought it would be appropriate to spend a few minutes looking deeper into his story.

Perhaps best known in the States as damsire of 2002 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Volponi, Sir Harry Lewis (pedigree) has been a fixture on the MarketWatch list of leading broodmare sires by AEI since he was first eligible for inclusion (2005) in large part due to Volponi's nearly $3.2 million in earnings.

Back in 2005 (i.e., data of 2004), Sir Harry Lewis first met the study requirements: he was represented by more than four North American runners the previous year and he had reached the $5 million mark in earnings as a damsire. His was no case of slowly climbing up the ladder, however. He debuted as leader of the "Young Sires to Watch" and perhaps more impressively became the second-place stallion among overall AEI leaders (behind Buckpasser and a notch in front of Hoist the Flag, his own grandsire). A year later, Sir Harry Lewis dropped to second behind Quiet American on the list of young damsires — Quiet American has held the #1 spot four consecutive years now — and dropped to fourth in overall AEI. He has remained a leader on both lists since. In this month's issue of The Blood-Horse MarketWatch, Sir Harry Lewis ranks third in overall AEI as a broodmare sire. (Because his first crop as a damsire was born in 1995, he is no longer eligible for the "young sires" rankings.)

The fact that Sir Harry Lewis' lofty rankings are skewed by a standout runner — Volponi accounts for 38.8% of his progeny earnings as a damsire — doesn't diminish the accomplishment. In fact, 2009 marks an interesting milestone for Sir Harry Lewis: it is the first year that he would qualify for the MarketWatch study even if Volponi's earnings were excluded. (It's close — progeny earnings would be only $26,252 over the $5 million cutoff without Volponi's bankroll.)

Because he has many daughters in active production, we'll see Sir Harry Lewis maintain a leadership position among broodmare sires over the next several years. Much less likely is any chance of the sire line continuing. Sir Harry Lewis descends from a male line that has been decidedly more successful at broodmare production than at turning out popular sires. From Federico Tesio's Tenerani (ITY) and Ribot to the American lines of Tom Rolfe and Hoist the Flag and on to Alleged, the line has rarely branched off with new stallions. Sir Harry Lewis himself has no active stallion sons. His sire Alleged has a handful of sons standing in South America and Great Britain — plus Storada (pedigree) in North Dakota for $300 — but the only upper-tier stud from the immediate line right now is the Hoist the Flag grandson Precocity (SRO) in New Mexico.

It requires going back to other sons of Ribot to find popular stallions standing today. The His Majesty branch includes such studs as Cetewayo and Nobiz Like Shobiz and Tiago and Pleasantly Perfect. The sire-line connection is many generations removed from Sir Harry Lewis, but an active Ribot-line stud that factored into another MarketWatch study recently was Raffie's Majesty, discussed here.

Subscribers to can access past issues in the TBH MarketWatch archives. Note that the Broodmare Sire AEI issue is published as the first issue in Spring each year.