MarketWatch Blog : The Blood-Horse MarketWatch Blog

Call for Broodmare of the Year Nominations

sgillies — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 17:00:00 GMT

The editors of The Blood-Horse MarketWatch once again are preparing for our annual Broodmare of the Year special report. We've been poring over our notes about a handful of mares that produced 2011's top runners. (A huge data file that we pull each year also brings to light several dams whose accomplishments are worthy of notice.)

Every year we open the final polling to MarketWatch readers. That comes in mid-March, after the 10 finalists have been identified and profiled in the March issue of our publication. Last year we asked you to get involved in the process earlier by nominating mares to be included on our short list of candidates. It's that time again.

What Thoroughbred dam deserves to be Broodmare of the Year? Here are a few mares whose offspring had stellar campaigns last year--please voice your opinion on them or suggest a mare that didn't make it to this list.

Abbey's Missy
Always Asking
Ava Knowsthecode
Bethany
Candlelightdinner
Catboat
Champagne Glow
Delta Princess
Discreetly Awesome
Easter Bunnette
Executricker
Flying Passage
Foolish Gal
Greyciousness
Honorine (IRE)
Ideal Image
Lady Shirl
Laurel Delight (GB)
Leaping Water (GB)
Lisieux
Lucky One
Magnificient Style
My Miss Storm Cat
Oatsee
Periza (CHI)
Remember the Day
Rhumb Line
Roger's Sue
Rosie's Posy (IRE)
Soignee (GER)
Starinthemeadow
Teaksberry Road
Uff-Uff (BRZ)
Wilshe Amaze
Winning in Style
Worldly Pleasure

Are you new to the MarketWatch Broodmare of the Year contest? Take a look at last year's report--available free!--to see what it's all about.

Neglected Ex-Racers Are a Black Eye on the Thoroughbred Industry

sgillies — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 21:45:00 GMT

By Avalyn Hunter

Life has been good for A.P. Indy. A royally-bred horse who became a sales topper as a yearling, he went on to highly successful careers as a racehorse and stallion. Thanks to the quality of his connections and his visibility, he will now live out the rest of his life as a well-cared-for pensioner.

For thousands of other Thoroughbreds, the picture is not nearly so rosy. The recent allegations surrounding the Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation, even if they prove unfounded, have served to highlight the plight of too many horses after their economic usefulness is gone: too many horses in need, and too little money to care for them all.

Thoroughbreds are more versatile than many people realize, and many horses do go on to new careers in other equine sports, in the show ring, or as pleasure mounts. But what of the horse that is too crippled from injury for further use, or the failed stallion or broodmare that is too old to be an attractive prospect for retraining? Pasture ornaments are not cheap to maintain, and not every breeder or owner has the means to care for horses that can do nothing to earn their keep. Nor can the existing rescue and retirement organizations take them all; most are stretched to the limits as it is.

Breeders, owners, and trainers all bear some responsibility. Fillies that lack racing talent and do not come from good winner-producing families should not be bred. Colts lacking the pedigree, conformation, and athletic potential to make viable stallions should be gelded, and the sooner the better; a reasonably tractable gelding has a much better chance of finding a new home or a second career than an ill-mannered entire. Trainers who abuse their responsibilities by racing cripples and misusing drugs should face stiff sanctions, including revocation of licenses for repeat offenders. Owners have a moral responsibility to consider long-term plans for their horses based on more than just the bottom line, and to provide a humane ending for those that they cannot afford to pension and cannot place in a new home.

Many conscientious breeders, owners, and trainers take their responsibility to their horses very seriously, some going to great lengths to locate and rescue animals they have bred, owned, or cared for. May their tribe increase, for bad publicity caused by starving or neglected ex-racehorses is one more black eye that the Thoroughbred industry does not need.

Don't Fear the Speed Gene -- by Eric Mitchell

EJMitchellKy — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 20:22:00 GMT

Breeders interested in producing classic horses have long looked for the right genetic mix of speed and stamina. An article by Avalyn Hunter does a good job of examining the different breeding theories and their successes in the Feb. 13th issue of The Blood-Horse. As I read this piece, I could not help but think of the recent announcement by Irish genetics researcher Dr. Emmeline Hill that a “speed gene” for the Thoroughbred had been identified. Dr. Hill is the co-founder of a company called Equinome that provides a test for the gene, which affects the development of muscle mass. The Blood-Horse's Bloodstock Editor Dede Biles will have a more detailed explanation of the test and what it shows in the Feb. 20th issue, but in short the test reveals one of three gene types. C/C is found in a horse that is genetically suited to run (and hopefully win) between five and eight furlongs, C/T is the gene found in a horse suited to run between eight and 12 furlongs, and T/T is the gene found in horses suited to races at 10 furlongs and longer.

News of this genetic test have generated mixed reactions. Some see it as a terrible thing for Thoroughbred breeding, with the risk that people will eventually focus too much on the genetic results and less on other important factors such as conformation and pedigree. There has also been concern that genetics testing will replace time-testing breeding theories and the need for all those great statistics, such as average winning distance and dosage.

I see Dr. Hill’s test as something quite positive—another tool available to Thoroughbred breeders that helps them understand the genetic potential of their breeding stock. After all, what are all those statistics and indices the industry has labored to create over the years other than our best efforts to assess a horse’s genetic proclivity based on the information available? Going back to Hunter’s article, a popular breeding strategy is to breed sires with brilliant speed to mares with stamina. James Keene is often credited as the first American breeder to apply this theory. He bred winners of the Epsom Oaks, Jockey Club Stakes (1 1/2 miles at Newmarket, England), and the Belmont Stakes. Now with genetic testing, you’ll have another tool to know if a sire’s or mare’s genetic potential leans toward speed or stamina. Wouldn’t this be helpful for a broodmare prospect out of a stakes-producing family that never made it to the races because of injury?

The speed gene is no silver bullet. Dr. Hill admits this in an informative video posted on the Equinome Web site.

“We have developed the test to show what a horse is likely to be good at, not how good it’s likely to be,” she said.

No guarantees you’ll get a stakes winner or even a winner. You just know, based on the make-up of its muscle physiology, that the horse is likely to prefer short, intermediate, or long distances. Thoroughbred breeding is a game of percentages, and skilled breeders find ways to move the percentages in their favor.

Could a C/C horse ever win a race over a mile? Never say never. But the research apparently shows it is very unlikely. Genes are complicated things. They are affected by other genes in an individual’s genome and triggered by environmental influences. And I think every breeder and owner knows, or should know, that the most physically gifted horse can be compromised by inadequate nutrition or ruined in the hands of a bad trainer.

The genetic genie was let out of the bottle a long time ago. We will face ethical questions we never dreamed of and will see research to genuinely fear. But this breakthrough isn’t among them.— Eric Mitchell

Frankel Remembered During His Reign of 2003

EJMitchellKy — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 20:43:00 GMT

I'm looking back at the Feb. 20, 2004, issue of The Blood-Horse MarketWatch awestruck at the numbers representing Bobby Frankel's racing year in 2003. He won 13.6% of the 353 graded stakes run in North America that year and won 35% of the grade I races. Frankel had 25 grade I wins and 48 graded stakes wins. Out of his 189 stakes starts in 2003, 163 were starts in graded stakes. It is likely to be a long time before another trainer has a year like Frankel did in 2003. — Eric Mitchell

Graded Stakes Total Earnings
Year Stakes Wins Wins Starts Earnings per Start

2000   22 (18%)*   32 (23%)       369   $10,239,071    $27,748
2001   37 (28%)*    49 (28%)*     390   $14,607,446     $37,455
2002   43 (25%)*    60 (28%)*    480    $17,748,340     $36,976
2003   48 (29%)*      53 (28%)* 411   $19,143,289    $46,577
2004   44 (27%)*      51 (27%)       491   $15,605,911    $31,784
2005   30 (21%)      39 (23%)       581     $14,493,670   $24,946

In 2003, Frankel set North American records for number of grade I wins (25) and the single season earnings record ($19,143,289). Both records were previously held by D. Wayne Lukas (22 grade I wins; $17,842,358).
*Leading North American Trainer by number of wins. In 2000, he tied Bob Baffert by number of graded stakes wins.

Linda Rice is finally rewarded for her hard work and dedication

EJMitchellKy — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 13:31:00 GMT

A clear example of how hard work and dedication can pay off is New York trainer Linda Rice. After grinding it out every day at the barns for 22 years, Rice captured her first training title this summer at Saratoga. She is the first woman trainer to win the title at this historic track. Rice had 20 wins during the 38-day meet, edging out Todd Pletcher by one win.

“As we went later in the meet, I was one up, and then Todd was two up,” Rice said. “Of course, I'm looking at the horses standing in my barn and not sure I could follow through. I was concerned for the last couple of days because I didn't have the right horses in. I placed a few horses pretty aggressively last week and it worked.”

Rice's career has been on a marked upswing for the past five years. The Blood-Horse MarketWatch publishes trainers statistics in its March edition and shows how the top 250 trainers by earnings fared during the previous year with horses of specific ages and in specific types of races. In 2004, Rice was ranked 128th with $1,389,239 in total earnings from 288 starts. She had 13% wins (38) from starts (288) and 7% stakes wins (4) from stakes starts (21). For 2008, Rice's rank jumped to 51st with $2,614,408 in total earnings. Her percentage of wins (79) from starts (405) was 20%, and her percentage of stakes wins (6) from stakes starts (54) was 11%. Rice has built a reputation for being particularly good with young horses. Her percentage of 2-year-olds wins from 2-year-old starts in 2008 was a healthy 25%, making her the 35th leading trainer in North America by this statistic.

Rice, 45, is also no stranger to breaking new ground. She became the first woman trainer to win a grade I race at Keeneland in 1998 when Tenski won the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. — Eric Mitchell

The Influence of Stallion Owners at Public Auctions

EJMitchellKy — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 14:14:00 GMT

Stallion owners are typically active at public auction. The tremendous influence of the commercial market on breeding nowadays requires it. Nothing can damage a sire’s value more than letting a few low-priced horses slip through, driving down the average yearling price. To what extent this price protection occurs is speculation, but it does occur.

The recent Fasig-Tipton Saratoga select yearling sale included 11 purchases by buyers who have direct ties to the sires of the yearlings purchased. In fairness, all the sires were either young, fashionable stallions or proven sires with high-profile runners. The yearlings would have been attractive regardless of the connection. Let’s take the skeptic’s view, however, and accept that a buyer in these 11 incidences — which totaled $7,475,000 and averaged $679,545 — cannot be completely detached about the link between a sale horse’s value and a stallion’s value.

So what does the market look like if these horses are taken out of the mix? Not too bad, actually. The average for all 160 horses sold at the select Saratoga sale was $328,434, up 11.1% from 2008’s average. Taking out the purchases with obvious sire–buyer connections, the average falls to $302,513, which is still 2.29% higher than 2008’s average of $295,738. The median also stayed in the black, remaining at $250,000 compared with the 2008 median of $227,500.

It should be noted that a review of the 2008 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale revealed only two purchases with an obvious sire–buyer connection. Those purchases totaled $1,425,000 and averaged $712,500.

For the owners of select-quality yearlings, it should be encouraging to know a genuine demand exists for these horses, and a premium price is attainable even in the dour economic climate we’re in. It is a good omen, at least for the opening two days of the Keeneland September sale. — Eric Mitchell

Stroll is Back in the USA

EJMitchellKy — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 17:04:00 GMT

I am glad to see Stroll returning to Claiborne Farm after having spent a couple years in Italy. The grade I turf star and a son of Claiborne's hot sire Pulpit has seven stakes winners in his first crop, which were 2-year-olds of 2008. As a second-crop sire he is currently co-ranked ninth by number of stakes winners (3) along with Congaree, Even the Score, Chapel Royal, and Birdstone. His chief earner for this year is Afternoon Stroll, who the Appalachian Stakes (gr. IIIT) as a 50-1 longshot then finished a respectable sixth in a field of 14 in the American Oaks (gr. IT).

We've been watching for Stroll's return because of the strong performance of his first crop. The sire was also a standout when assess by the MarketWatch Index, a sire rating developed by The Blood-Horse MarketWatch that combines the performance success with the earning power of a sire's progeny. You read more about Stroll's MWI on the MarketWatch blog post of April 28. — Eric Mitchell

First-Crop Thoroughbred Yearling Sires to Watch in '09

EJMitchellKy — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 13:14:00 GMT

The June issue of The Blood-Horse MarketWatch includes 10 profiles of 2009's leading first-crop yearling sires to watch, based on their 2008 weanling medians. These insightful profiles were written by pedigree expert Alan Porter and international bloodstock consultant Michael Youngs. We actually had 12 profiles to run but wound up with only room for 10 in the print edition. So we're running the other two profiles here. The first of these bonus profiles is Lane's End Farm's Aragorn.

Photo by Tony Leonard/Courtesy of Lane's End Farm

Aragorn began his career in Ireland, where he finished second in his only start at 2, and won a seven-furlong maiden and was third in a listed race in England at 3. Brought to the U.S., he won the Oak Tree Derby (gr. IIT). At 4, Aragorn developed into a top-class miler with a deadly turn of foot, winning the Eddie Read Handicap and Shoemaker Breeders’ Cup Mile (both gr. IT), and the Del Mar Breeders’ Cup Handicap and Oak Tree Breeders’ Cup Mile (both gr. IIT). His only defeats that year were seconds in three graded stakes, two of them grade I, one of which was the NetJets Breeders’ Cup Mile (gr. IT).

Aragorn’s sire, Giant’s Causeway, was the best racing son of Storm Cat, and has established himself as his sire’s best stallion son. He has sired group/grade I winners on dirt (where his best have been out of mares with speed in their background), turf, and all-weather (where they have been particularly adept). Out of a Mr. Prospector mare, Aragorn comes from a classic European family — his third dam, Valoris II, won the Epsom Oaks and Irish One Thousand Guineas and is half-sister to the Prix du Jockey-Club (French Derby) winner Val de Loir, himself a top-class sire. Aragorn’s granddam, Savannah Dancer, a daughter of Northern Dancer, was a graded stakes winner and is granddam of French champion 3-year-old State Shinto.

Sixteen Aragorn weanlings were sold in the U.S. last year, averaging $35,169, with a high price of $100,000 realized by a colt out of Chalamont (IRE). She is a daughter of Kris (GB) (by Sharpen Up (GB), a line that has worked well under Storm Cat), out of the group I winner and producer Durtal (IRE). Chalamont has produced the black-type winner Secret Garden (IRE) and is granddam of Italian group winner Wickwing (GB). Internationally, the top price for an Aragorn weanling was the near-$330,000 achieved in Japan by a foal out of Lively Tune. She is a Dixieland Band daughter (meaning the colt is bred on a similar cross to Giant’s Causeway’s juvenile star First Samurai), and is half-sister to graded stakes winners Living Vicariously and With Distinction (by Storm Cat), and to the dam of graded stakes winner Sightseeing.

Aragorn, whose first-year fee was $30,000 at Lane’s End Farm, came good toward the end of his 3-year-old campaign and was outstanding at 4. One would generally not expect him to get early runners (although inbreeding to his broodmare sire, Mr. Prospector, might help in that regard), and his offspring are most likely to be suited by turf and all-weather tracks. — Alan Porter

Brand Conscious

EJMitchellKy — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 14:38:00 GMT

Your name is your brand. This is particularly true for the consignors, buyers, and breeders of Thoroughbred horses, but a relatively small percentage of industry professionals recognize it. I know this because I’ve just spent three days matching up buyer and consignor names for The Blood-Horse MarketWatch’s annual yearling season preview study. The preview includes the performance records of yearlings previously offered at public auction and compiled by buyer name and consignor name. Before this study can be run, however, more than 13,000 names have to be reviewed and some of them combined. Here’s why.

Each variation of a consignor’s or buyer’s name gets a separate identification code in The Jockey Club database. This means the buyers "Robert Smith, agent," "Bob Smith, agent," "Robert Smith," and "R. Smith" all get individual records even though they represent the same person. A misspelled name, for example, "Hobert Smith," also gets a separate record. I try to determine whether R. Smith and Robert Smith are the same person by scouring records on the Web, comparing buying histories for each variation of the name and contacting the sale companies. Even this research doesn’t always provide a definitive answer so the records don’t get combined. What this means for our fictitious buyer is that he may not get listed in our study because the number of horses bought under the individual variations of his name fall below our minimum threshold of yearlings purchased, which was 24 in last year’s study. We use a minimum because the study includes data from multiple years, and we want to focus on the most commercially active buyers and sellers.

Let’s say the records under each variation of Robert Smith looked like this:

Robert Smith, agent; 7 purchased, 5 winners (71%), 1 stakes winner (14%), 1 graded stakes winner (14%)

Bob Smith, agent; 15 purchased, 9 winners (60%), 1 stakes winners (7%), 1 graded stakes winner (7%)

Robert Smith; 10 purchased, 8 winners (80%), 3 stakes winners (30%), 1 graded stakes winners (10%)

R. Smith; 8 purchased, 4 winners (50%), 3 stakes winners (37.5%), 1 graded stakes winner (12.5%)

None of this would appear in the study because the number of horses purchased by each entity falls below the minimum. If the buyer signed "Robert Smith, agent" for all his purchases, however, then the record would appear like this in the study:

Robert Smith, agent; 40 purchased, 26 winners (65%), 8 stakes winners (20%), 4 graded stakes winners (10%)

Frank Stronach, who has been named North America’s leading breeder for six consecutive years, realized the importance of having all his horses under one name nearly a decade ago when he covered the cost of having The Jockey Club amend the registry so all the horses he’s bred are under one name — Adena Springs. Not everyone can afford to have records amended in The Jockey Club database, and changing sale records is tricky anyway because the names in the catalogs and on sale tickets is the "official" record. So, I have some recommendations that are easy to implement.

1. Decide on a name and use it for all sale transactions. Don’t buy some horses in your spouse’s name and some in your children’s names just so they show up in the results for that particular sale. Don’t switch between your name and your farm/business name.

2. Be consistent in using that name. If you want to include your middle initial, then include it every time.

3. If you buy or sell a lot of horses with partners then consider identifying yourself as an agent each time. If you must include the names of partners or clients, then consider: Robert Smith & Partners (T. London) or Robert Smith, agent (J. Blanchard). This at least provides a common thread to the partnerships. — Eric Mitchell

When the Select Juvenile Market Becomes More Selective

EJMitchellKy — Tue, 26 May 2009 14:14:00 GMT

The Blood-Horse MarketWatch’s May issue includes a review of the select 2-year-olds in training season, which fared worse than expected with an overall drop in rate of return for pinhooked horses. The ROR fell to 30% from 82% in the 2008. Now these statistics apply only to pinhooked horses, meaning those purchased previously at public auction as yearlings with the intent of reselling them as juveniles. MarketWatch leans heavily on pinhooking statistics to analyze the markets for the most obvious reason — the commercial market tells us what a horse is worth on either end of the process. Pinhooks also make up a substantial segment of the market. In the case of the select 2-year-old sales, pinhooked horses made up 64.3% of the 882 horses offered.

While the market was down overall, there was one slender segment that significantly outperformed all the others. These were the pinhooks purchased as yearlings for less than $20,000. Of the 35 horses in this price range offered, 60% were sold (21 horses) and 43% (15) were profitable. This group generated a 120% ROR for its consignors, an increase from 63% for the same price range in 2008. The horses were slightly more expensive as yearlings, averaging $14,048 compared with an average of $13,000 for the comparable group of 2008. The average price for this price range as 2-year-olds, however, spiked 39.7% to $74,286, up from $53,176 a year ago.

Another significant change occurred with pinhooks purchased in the $50,000-$74,999 yearling price range. The ROR for this group fell to 6% from 112% during the 2008 select seasons. The average 2-year-old price for this segment of the market dropped nearly 50% to $86,553 from $172,045 a year ago.

What happened with these two segments of the market may be related. Among the eight yearling price ranges MarketWatch uses to analyze the market, RORs were the highest for the bottom three — pinhooked horses that sold for $39,999 or less as yearlings. Buyers clearly had less money to spend and were shopping for bargains. This means less interest at the top and upper-middle segments of the market and more interest in the less expensive horses. More interest means more competition, which generally means higher prices. — Eric Mitchell

Smart Strike is a Rising Broodmare Sire

EJMitchellKy — Wed, 06 May 2009 13:02:00 GMT

Since 2003 The Blood-Horse MarketWatch has published an annual analysis of the top 400 broodmare sires by their Average Earnings Indexes (AEI). This year's study, which is featured in the April issue, includes Smart Strike for the first time because his daughters' progeny met the minimum criteria of five North American runners in 2008 and lifetime earnings of at least $5 million. Smart Strike, the broodmare sire of newly minted Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner Mine That Bird, not only qualified but ranks among the leading 12 "young" broodmare sires. He is one of the youngest stallions on the "sires to watch" leaders list along with French Deputy and Unbridled's Song, who all had their first crops as broodmare sires foal in 2001.

MarketWatch associate editor Scot Gillies wrote in an analysis: While stock in Smart Strike has shot skyward in the wake of Curlin's repeated Horse of the Year seasons, the son of Mr. Prospector is also making a name for himself through the progeny of his daughters. He makes this year's broodmare sire list despite having less than 10% producers from fillies, one of only two stallions [of 404 on the list] to do so.

The study includes both AEIs and the Comparable Indexes (CI) for the 400+ broodmare sires and a graphic that illustrates how the AEI and CI is calculated for broodmare sires. The issue also includes leaders lists by lifetime AEI, percentage of stakes winners from foals, and by highest percentage of producing daughters.

A Stroll to the Top

EJMitchellKy — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 17:46:00 GMT

It was Tax Day, and I was finishing up the MarketWatch Index calculations for the 2008 freshman sires. I re-sorted the spreadsheet so the sires would rank from highest to lowest by their MWIs, expecting to see Tapit rise to the top. But he didn't. Tapit was second to Stroll, the grade I-winning son of Pulpit who was bred and raced by Claiborne Farm. Stroll is not only the leading freshman sire, he is the leading sire by a pretty wide margin.

Stroll has an MWI of 5.02, which is the second-highest index calculated for a freshman sire since The Blood-Horse MarketWatch began publishing the MWI in its current format in 2005. The highest index belongs to Successful Appeal, who had a 5.85 as a freshman sire of 2004. Tapit has an MWI of 3.65, which is still very strong. What put Stroll on top was his 8% stakes winners (of at least $50,000) from foals and his 3% graded stakes winners from foals.

How about that, I think. The top freshmen by the MWI are both sons of Pulpit. Then I do a little research on Stroll and discover he is not standing at Claiborne anymore. He was relocated for the 2008 season to Azienda Agricola Mediterranea in Parma, Italy, where he stands for 12,000 euros. While at Claiborne, Stroll's fee started at $7,500 and dropped to $5,000 for 2007. Stroll didn't make it into our final list of leading freshman sires because he is no longer standing in North America, but it didn't take long to get reminded about why he is at the top of the list. On April 16 at Keeneland, a daughter of Stroll named Afternoon Stroll captured the grade III Applachian Stakes. It was her first start on the turf, and she went off at 50-1. Afternoon Stroll became her sire's second graded stakes winner. The first was Van Lear Rose, who won the Mazarine Stakes (gr. III) at Woodbine and was Canadian's champion 2-year-old filly for 2008.

So why did Stroll leave? Well, his first obstacle as a sire in the United States was that he won all his best races on the turf. Stroll did well as a 2-year-old, finishing in the money three times out of five starts, but all his best performances, again, were on the grass. Next, Pulpit's star as a sire of sires was yet to rise. The result was 58 mares bred to Stroll in 2005, 25 mares in 2006, and 11 mares in 2007.

Now we wait to see if Stroll will join the ranks of expatriate U.S. stallions that have thrived abroad. Perhaps he'll become the Sunday Silence of Italy. — Eric Mitchell

Welcome to The Blood-Horse MarketWatch Blog

EJMitchellKy — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 14:34:00 GMT

Roman Ruler was tagged as the top 2009 freshman sire to watch in the February issue of The Blood-Horse MarketWatch. The son of Fusaichi Pegasus rose to the top of our list because the dams of his first crop had collectively produced more 2-year-olds stakes winners than the first books of other freshman sires. You may have read this and thought, Ghostzapper or Afleet Alex deserved the top spot. Well, now you have a forum to make your argument.

The MarketWatch Blog is your place to discuss and debate the meaning behind the statistics and trends identified in the newsletter. We'll also track changes in the commercial market as they unfold. For example, our estimate that the 2-year-olds in training market would be off by 15% at the most is looking pretty bullish right now. The Ocala Breeders' March sale just finished up with a 32.9% decline in average and 30% decline in median. There are still a lot of 2-year-olds to be sold, but now thoughts are shifting toward the yearling market and how much more it will be down.

The most sobering quote from the OBS March sale came from agent John Moynihan: "These people who are good enough to buy these horses and who love the Thoroughbred business don't have to do this. When tough times hit them somewhere else, they cut back on something they don't necessarily have to have, which a lot of times is their horse operation."