Undervalued Sires: Still a Value in 2014?

re: Undervalued Sires: Still a Value in 2014?

sceptre — Tue, 03 Dec 2013 21:57:42 GMT

Pedigree Ann:

Your comments are all very beside the point. If you're breeding to sell commercially, you better be mindful of what the market (predicted future market) desires. If you're breeding to race, "sire power"/$ is an important consideration and some "holes" often do exist-the point of this article. Also, the best perceived pedigree cross and/or conformation cross per $ is often not the best way to go to produce the best racehorse-you must also have a fair degree of confidence in the chosen stallion's ability to sire good runners-and here also is where the best bang for your buck principle kicks in.

re: Undervalued Sires: Still a Value in 2014?

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 01 Dec 2013 16:56:44 GMT

Value is entirely in the eye of the beholder. If you don't like a stallion for your mare, on pedigree, conformational, or other grounds, no price will be a good value to you. "I wouldn't breed her to X if they paid me to," is the way one hears this expressed.

Breeding a mare to a stallion mainly because his offspring ON AVERAGE bring prices a few times higher than his stud fee makes no sense to me. Averages can include a large outlier that disguise a fair number of smaller values. Mares, who are each individuals of varying traits, deserve more thought in the breeding process than that.

re: Undervalued Sires: Still a Value in 2014?

annes — Tue, 26 Nov 2013 13:26:24 GMT

I believe part of the issue with Discreet Cat is the perception, true or not, that he produces unsound horses. I know many commercial breeders who won't use him because of that.

re: Undervalued Sires: Still a Value in 2014?

annes — Tue, 26 Nov 2013 13:24:30 GMT

If Im not mistaken, Mr. Prospector was the highest priced yearling of his year, too.

re: Undervalued Sires: Still a Value in 2014?

mz — Mon, 25 Nov 2013 20:10:41 GMT

Sceptre: agree with you about Forli. Agree to disagree on other points.

re: Undervalued Sires: Still a Value in 2014?

sceptre — Mon, 25 Nov 2013 16:00:17 GMT

mz:

I'd really prefer not to get into this too much, and I think your question is probably rhetorical. I think if you had WITNESSED Mr. P's performances in real time, particularly his earlier races, you may not now be debating the point. Now take that style and brilliance, and combine it with the kind of pedigree and sheer athleticism he possessed. Very, very few come to stud with such credentials. The main reason he began his career in FL was because his owner, Mr. Savin, had there a farm...I loved Forego, was there for his Derby, and wagered on him that day to beat Secretariat. Still believe he was the better horse. Also, greatly admired his sire, Forli. Had Forego not been gelded (and retired with same record) he could have been the Forli to really make it (I was, however, wrong about Possee), but his female line (not his size) gives me some pause.

re: Undervalued Sires: Still a Value in 2014?

mz — Fri, 22 Nov 2013 22:18:04 GMT

I'm sorry, Sceptre but how can you say there is no comparison?

Mr. Prospector went to stud having never won a Grade 1 but only having finished second or third in one Gr 2 and and one Gr 3.

Pleasantly Perfect won several Grade 1's, including the Breeders Classic and the Dubai World Cup.

Mizzen Mast won Grade 1's and placed in Grade 2's in France.

Run Away and Hide won a Gr 2 and a Gr 3.

None of them have/had bad pedigrees.

Going in, I do not agree with you that there is no comparison. Why would they have started Mr. Prospector in Fla except for the fact that they thought they should take a chance on an "outsider"? If there was no comparison, would they not have stood him from the beginning in the Mecca of Kentucky?

On another point, one of Mr. P's seconds was to Forego (in the Carter, I think). What do you think might have happened if Forego hadn't been a gelding -- and I'm talking from a stud point of view; I know his size operated against him not being gelded but still .....

re: Undervalued Sires: Still a Value in 2014?

sceptre — Fri, 22 Nov 2013 20:55:30 GMT

mz-

Mr. P. originally stood for $7,500. Trust me, credentials going in, there's no comparison with those mentioned and Mr. P.

re: Undervalued Sires: Still a Value in 2014?

Ian Tapp — Fri, 22 Nov 2013 20:54:49 GMT

mz,

He started at $7,500, I believe. Not exactly a bargain price in 1975, but 15 years later he was at $250K.

re: Undervalued Sires: Still a Value in 2014?

sceptre — Fri, 22 Nov 2013 20:44:18 GMT

Hi Ian,

You're right, he was bred to several well bred Juddmonte mares. His G-III winner out of Danehill's full-sister was a poor producer prior to her First Defence-and sold for next to nothing. My main point was, that out of all those mentioned, First Defence appears to have the most upside. I have always liked Discreet Cat, but I think his Forestry gets in the way, and there's been enough of them out there to suggest that he won't break through. I admire Run Away And Hide's looks, he has done fairly well, but doubt there's much upside to him.

re: Undervalued Sires: Still a Value in 2014?

mz — Fri, 22 Nov 2013 19:38:57 GMT

I like Run Away and Hide too.

----

Do you remember what Mr. Prospector started at in Florida?

re: Undervalued Sires: Still a Value in 2014?

Ian Tapp — Fri, 22 Nov 2013 18:09:56 GMT

First Defence did look good at $7,500, but, alas, his fee was doubled to $15,000. I like him, but his only two stakes winners (albeit G1 and G3 winners) are out of well-bred Juddmonte mares.

I'm probably a bit more optimistic than you are about the upside of these undervalued sires, particularly the relatively young Discreet Cat and Run Away and Hide.

re: Undervalued Sires: Still a Value in 2014?

sceptre — Thu, 21 Nov 2013 16:43:41 GMT

Back in September, First Defence was likely the "true" undervalued sire, while the four you mention are, to my mind, pretenders, with little upside potential. From the commercial standpoint, First Defence's main drawback is small crops for the immediate years going forward.