When the Select Juvenile Market Becomes More Selective

re: When the Select Juvenile Market Becomes More Selective

Kevin — Thu, 28 May 2009 17:18:28 GMT

I agree with TouchStone as to the economy reflecting the ups and downs of the horse market.

However, present day buyers who own to race are sophisticated, and have knowledge available to them that they did not have thirty years ago. This is the difference in the current downturn, that did not exist in the past that will effect future markets. Sellers of thoroughbred horses, pinhooked or not, would be wise to deal with this reality and act accordingly.

As for the Mercedes/Hyundai comparison with thoroughbreds! A worldly sounding, but meaningless analogy of smoke and mirrors that answers nothing but reveals a great deal.

Percentage figures of stake winners from various sales when not specific, but are given in average, do not impress or prove. Break the sale down. Show the highest price horses sold were the stake winners, then a point is made.

Recently, in Bloodhorse I read a statement from a person whose name for the moment I can not recall. He/she stated, "Price is what you pay, value is what you receive".

To conclude, if one spends a million dollars, or fifty thousand dollars, today's buyer is aware of the value.

re: When the Select Juvenile Market Becomes More Selective

EJMitchellKy — Wed, 27 May 2009 16:58:36 GMT

TouchStone Farms makes a good point. The pinhook returns for the lower-priced horses only means they sold well and does not mean they're bargain stakes winners.

You may question the wisdom of spending a million dollars or more on a horse, but you cannot get away from the fact that high-quality horses — those with good pedigrees and good conformation — should cost more money. And generally speaking, perform better than average on the track.

The January issue of The Blood-Horse MarketWatch included a a preview for the 2-year-olds in training sale season. On page 12 is chart with the aggregate performance records of sale graduates from eight major juvenile sales from 2001 through 2005. The Fasig-Tipton Calder sale had the highest average price ($253,855) but also the highest percentage of graded stakes winners (5.7%) from horses sold. The top three sales by percentage of stakes winners — OBS February (13%) and Fasig-Tipton Calder and Barretts March (each with 11%) — all had average prices that were six figures.

re: When the Select Juvenile Market Becomes More Selective

TouchStone Farms — Wed, 27 May 2009 13:13:27 GMT

If you monitor the horse sales over the past thirty years you will find they are in lockstep as a sign wave with economic downturns, much like the stock market.

Yes a good horse can come from anywhere, but try not to become too elated about the bottom end, If your looking to buy a Mercedes you had best leave the Hyundai lot.

re: When the Select Juvenile Market Becomes More Selective

Kevin — Tue, 26 May 2009 17:33:00 GMT

I agree, there is less money available in the horse market. Less money to spend however is not the only cause for buyer interest in the less expensive horse.

Interest in the less expensive end of the market by buyers is additionally caused by buyer awareness.

Awareness that the horse with minor imperfections can just as well be a champion, as the one who has looks to kill and "walks like a two dollar hooker".

Awareness that the stallions with a stud fee of $50,000 or less can and do have the same, (if not better), percentage of starters, winners, stakes wins, and graded stake wins, as those with a stud fee of $75,000 plus.

Awareness that one can afford more often to race again if all does not go right with a lower priced horse vs a higher priced horse.

Awareness that the higher priced stallions might have the winning foals of some classic races, but the underneath percentage of winners, even runners making it to the track sometimes is lower then the bargain stallion. Also the possibility of a purse return equal or higher then cost is less likely with the higher priced stallion's progeny.

So yes, the economy is a factor. But buyer awareness (education) has slowly been growing, and will continue to grow and influence the market. This awareness being a factor long after the economy has rebounded.

Hey, even some of the million dollar buyers might get a thrill out of a bargain winner/champion. I mean mean that is only second best to raising your own.

re: When the Select Juvenile Market Becomes More Selective

bernie — Tue, 26 May 2009 16:51:50 GMT

The improvement for less than $20,000 yearlings finally makes sense . The value in that segment is clearly there . The more you pay for a weanling or yearling is no guarantee of success .

re: When the Select Juvenile Market Becomes More Selective

da3hoss — Tue, 26 May 2009 15:55:48 GMT

Well, when I see the success of Birdstone, Peace Rules, Northern Afleet, Yonaguska or Candy Ride and am able to buy a Musket Man, Mine That Bird, General Quarters there's no way I'm spending more...