re: Juvenile Sales Offer Better Return for Buyers

nsauer — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 12:10:17 GMT

Machmer Hall,

You are correct, Big Brown was sold as a 2-year-old at Keeneland April in 2007 for $190,000. However, his ROR based on 2-year-old sales price and racetrack earnings was not in the top 5 of 2-year-olds for this group of horses. His ROR was 1,802%, and he was ranked 20th by greatest ROR.

re: Juvenile Sales Offer Better Return for Buyers

Machmer Hall — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 12:25:45 GMT

Big brown was sold as a 2 yr old in training and a yrl. You have him only on the yrl list

re: Juvenile Sales Offer Better Return for Buyers

sceptre — Tue, 25 Mar 2014 20:17:54 GMT

Another interesting piece...1st paragraph: I'd change "...potential racetrack performance..." to, potential racetrack earnings (or earning power). There is a difference and its consequence may, in part, be reflected in the eye-opening disparity between avg. yearling (despite a 3x + larger group) price vs avg. 2 yr. old price. Many of the higher priced yearlings are sold to export where, aside from Japan, the purses are often lower (than in the US), and with somewhat less opportunity to race (starts/career)...More importantly, perhaps, one could reach the potentially false conclusion that it is fiscally safer to purchase the 2 yr. old rather than the yearling- even granting the additional "carrying fees" from say the Sept. yearling until say an April 2 yr. old. Reason- there is a far greater withdrawal and buy-back rate seen with the 2 yr. olds. So, all else equal, a greater sale 2 yr. old demand should = a drop in both these rates/greater number of sold 2 yr. olds. Let's assume that the withdrawals and buy-backs are, as a group, more likely to have less (net(=another not calculated variable)) earning power. Such a drop could lower their edge...Granting there is some overlap; it's a bit surprising to see a higher avg. earnings for sale yearlings vs sale 2 yr. olds.