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Nicanor in Tough Saturday; Drew Post Position 4

OK. This is the one you’ve been waiting for -- the stakes debut of Nicanor. But you can be sure, Saturday’s Virginia Derby is going to be a real trial by fire for Barbaro’s full brother. He will break from post position 4 under Jose Lezcano in the 10-horse field.

While Nicanor has shown great potential on turf for owners Roy and Gretchen Jackson with two wins in as many starts on grass after two second-place finishes on the main track, he definitely has never faced the type of other 3-year-olds he will be competing against here, in a grade II race with $750,000 purse.

The class of the race is Battle of Hastings, a British-bred trained by Jeff Mullins. The gelding has five wins and a second in 10 career starts, all on turf. His best effort came in his last race, over the same turf course at Colonial Downs, when he rallied for a narrow victory in the Colonial Turf Cup (gr. IIT).

As if that wasn’t enough, Straight Story and Lime Rickey, who were second and third in the Turf Cup, are returning in the Derby. Also, the race drew grade II winner Hold Me Back, who had a troubled trip to finish 12th in the Kentucky Derby and will be making his turf debut here.

Earlier in the day Monday, Nicanor breezed a half-mile in :49 at Fair Hill, the fastest time of the day among seven horses working that distance on the main track.

11th Race. (C10) Post 5:59PM The 12th Running of STAKES
The Virginia Derby (Grade II)
$750,000 Guaranteed
Purse $750,000 Guaranteed 1 1/4 Miles(Turf)
FOR THREE YEAR-OLDS.
1 AFFIRMATIF (L) '06 C 117 DeCarlo, C Wertheimer and Frere Pletcher, T
2 FLORENTINO (JPN) (L) '06 C 121 Garcia, A Darley Stable McLaughlin, K
3 TAKE THE POINTS (L) '06 C 117 Prado, E Starlight Partners Pletcher, T
4 NICANOR (L) '06 C 117 Lezcano, J Lael Stables Matz, M
5 SAFETY VALVE (L) '06 C R18 117 Camacho, E Hillwood Stable LLC Jenkins, R
6 STRAIGHT STORY (L) '06 C 117 Lopez, C Santulli, R Goldberg, A
7 HOLD ME BACK (L) '06 C 117 Desormeaux, K WinStar Farm LLC Mott, W
8 EL CRESPO (L) '06 C 121 Leparoux, J Humphrey, Jr., G Arnold, II, G
9 BATTLE OF HASTINGS (L) '06 G 121 Baze, T House, M Mullins, J
10 LIME RICKEY (L) '06 C 117 Velasquez, C Dogwood Stable Alexander, F

157 Comments:

Go Nicanor!  We'll be behind you baby.   It's to bad Rosie isn't going to be riding you.

AshleighD 13 Jul 2009 5:25 PM

My Prayers and hopes are for NICANOR, best of luck Saturday sweet one....may the wind be with you....oh, my gosh, and its all Nicanor......now wouldnt that be great....

Ragsy 13 Jul 2009 5:30 PM

OH NO!!!!

meleah 13 Jul 2009 5:31 PM

GO NICKY GO!!!

FOREVER TOGETHER 13 Jul 2009 5:32 PM

I don't expect a win with this competition.  He'll be lucky if he's on the board.

yawn 13 Jul 2009 5:33 PM

May NICANOR do the best he can and learn a lot so that he can carve his future as a solid racehorse.

NICANOR is now on the next leg of his journey to become "a man." He's got the goods. Facing a big test and excelling is not beyond him.  Mentally, he's getting there.

So, NICANOR, just come back smarter -- and safe and sound!

Karen, PA 13 Jul 2009 5:36 PM

Go, Nicanor! It will be tough, but you have the pedigree! Show 'em what you're made of!

Concerned Fan 13 Jul 2009 5:38 PM

Just whisper is his ear you can do it,he will surprise us all,Have faith it can make incredible things happen.Love you Nicanor!

Tracy 13 Jul 2009 5:40 PM

the big one,   run like hell you can do it

horse feathers 13 Jul 2009 5:46 PM

UH OH!!!! WOW!!!

Terry in Wisconsin 13 Jul 2009 5:49 PM

Good Luck Nicky!

I'd love to watch you race but I don't think I'll be home. I think I'm going to the Kentucky Horse Park Saturday for the BreyerFest but I'll be waiting for the results!

~Nicole

Nicole 13 Jul 2009 5:49 PM

   What a great Field!, Nicanor will certainly have his hands full, but he is ready for this(IMO), He is in top form, both physically and mentally.  He is a very confident horse right now, He has been training perfectly, Also, Remember, Jose Lezcano has been on Nicanor in both work-outs and rode him in Nicanor's second race when he finished a game second to Stakes winner, "Custom for Carlos".  Jose has alot of experience in both Stakes and Turf Races.  So I hope everyone isn't too upset that Rosie isn't on him.  You have to remember that she is in a dog fight with David Cohen for the top Jockey spot at Delaware Park(She is a very close second to him!), And I am sure she has prior commitments to other Owners and Trainers for this upcoming Huge weekend at Delaware Park.

     Nicanor is in very capable hands with Jose, Mr. Matz has complete faith in him for Nicanor's biggest race to date, That is good enough for me!  It will be incredibly tough, but I see Nicanor holding off Battle of Hastings and Straight Story for a one length win!  Would you expect any other prediction from me...

Greg J. 13 Jul 2009 5:50 PM

Everyone, send all your good vibes to Nicanor so that he will run a good and safe race!!Best of luck and prayers to you Nicanor!!

Vevita1 13 Jul 2009 6:01 PM

Nicanor is my bet, even though full brothers are not to my liking.       Did u see Jess Jackson purchased Dashing Debby? first time starter who won stakes at Calder, by sire of Rachel Alexandra

stanley marcinkowski, Plowville, Pa 13 Jul 2009 6:04 PM

Hi Nicanor,

Do you realize that your speed on your last workout was 1:01 last week and this time beat Rachel Alexandra's time. Her time was 1:01.38. They called hers a bullet workout and yours a breeze. I can only deduce that your workout didn't "stress" you out too much.

Having said this, I will just say, I've always thought you had what it takes.

And Battle of Hastings has won 5 and placed once. But there has been 4 other times he has not placed. So Battles of Hastings is good/very good, but not perfect.

What I want you to do Nicanor is keep in mind first and foremost is to stay safe and try not to have a I don't wanna-fest with J. Leczano.

I will be watching and I will be rooting for you no matter how you place.

Good Luck Nicanor!!!! And I have this feeling you can win, even with this field.

Kathy 13 Jul 2009 6:08 PM

Wait is this the Jock who rode him in his first two starts on dirt?  If so why are they using him instead of whoever rode him the last time?

HLH 13 Jul 2009 6:12 PM

OMG!! Throw in Rachel and Gio Ponti, why don't you? Geez...This is going to be tough for our Beautiful Nicanor. But I just want him to race his best and be safe. Love you sweety...I'll be cheering for you.

Ida Lee 13 Jul 2009 6:13 PM

Nic is up to the challenge with BBH watching from above and all of us "Earth Angels" rooting from here. Go beautiful boy and God speed!

Bonnie3 13 Jul 2009 6:21 PM

Why not Rosie? Hurry back to the winners circle Big Fella!

Windy City 13 Jul 2009 6:44 PM

I have to take everyone back to last summer/fall when we didn't even know if he was going to be a race horse at all.  This is amazing.

We all know he is in a very difficult race and I have no misperceptions.  All I want is a safe race.  He has nothing to prove as far as I'm concerned.

MJ 13 Jul 2009 6:47 PM

Nicky,just give it your best shot! Best of luck to you and your team. May you stay healthy and happy,no matter what the outcome.We'll be watching and rooting for you all the way!

Mattie W. 13 Jul 2009 7:01 PM

Go Nick!

shesfast 13 Jul 2009 7:07 PM

Nicanor doesn't know some of the other guys are stakes winners.  Go Baby Go!

smartysgal 13 Jul 2009 7:10 PM

It is too bad that ARN will not be the pilot.

She is very good.

Although I have not seen the list of entries for DEL, I imagine that she has riding assignments there on Saturday.

Virgil Fox 13 Jul 2009 7:14 PM

Why isn't Edgar riding Nicanor anymore.

Robin 13 Jul 2009 7:16 PM

Why would they change Jockies????

Stephanie 13 Jul 2009 7:17 PM

Oh Boy!!! You have a tough job to do this Saturday. Good Luck Nicanor.  

Maria K. 13 Jul 2009 7:21 PM

The Roy and Gretchen Jackson should be congratulated. Racing a horse is a dream, and they are dreaming big with Nicanor, as well they should.

Far to many times, trainers and owners hesitate when placing a horse, (worried about their record?). They then wind up not knowing how good/great the horse might have been, or worse knowing, but failing to allow the horse to show the world with deeds it's true class.

I'm not a over the top Nicanor fan, but I am over the top on the Jackson's placing him in the Virginia Derby. Way to go!    

Kevin 13 Jul 2009 7:22 PM

Whyyy didn't rosie get the call on Nic? she's been amazing with Nic and helping him come into his own as a racehorse... if i recall correctly Lezcano only had the call one other time.. a 2nd place finish? or 3rd?

Kayy 13 Jul 2009 7:30 PM

I am really curious as to how Nicanor stacks up compared to the rest of the 3yo crop. It's taken so long for him to get going...which is all good. I'm thinking he actually may have been facing some stiff competition while trying to break his maiden. CFC is getting better on dirt, meanwhile Nick is skipping over the grass. This years just been quite the head scratcher. Been one roller coaster of a year and the rides not over.

Where's the rest of the 3yos hiding? What happened to all the Smarty's? Anyways im still having a hay day as a racing fan.

shesfast 13 Jul 2009 7:43 PM

Folks, lets all root for Nicanor, but don't bet your last dollar on this race. Why, because Barbaro broke the Stake Record at Laurel, his 2nd start & Nicanor hasn't faced graded Stake Winner's/Placed, like he will on Saturday."Battle Of Hastings", Straight Story & lime Rickey, Take the Points & Hold me Back. Barbaro never came into a race after his maiden win against horses of this caliber until the Kentucky Derby. I want Nic to run a big-big race, But I'm afraid this is going to be very tough going against seasoned Turf Stakes Winners. He really should go off at 10 to 1 odds. I'll Still root for him.

Clearwater Charlie 13 Jul 2009 7:44 PM

Tough spot here for his first stakes.  We should know what we've got with him after Saturday.  I'd be proud if he finishes in the money in his first stakes start.

RachelSatterfield 13 Jul 2009 7:54 PM

I wonder why Prado chose ttp over nicanor.... doesnt look good. good luck to nicanor tho!

theelk 13 Jul 2009 8:14 PM

Exciting! As good as Dynaformer off spring have been doing it could be time for Nicanor to join them. Finding his form and ready to go.

Rooting for Nicanor, and his role model connections.

By the by, how is that last little boy doing?

newsline2 13 Jul 2009 8:37 PM

Go Nicanor...you can do it sweet, handsome boy!!!

Brenda 13 Jul 2009 8:39 PM

I am a little disappointed that Rosie won't be riding Nic - they really work well together.  I pray for a safe race for all!

GO NICANOR!

nvsally 13 Jul 2009 8:55 PM

Good Luck Nicanor!

Shell 13 Jul 2009 8:57 PM

Sorry for the spelling Dog jumped up on my lap.

How come Rosie is not riding Nicanor for this race?

She did so well for him on his last races.  

Penny 13 Jul 2009 8:59 PM

Nicanor, The Virginia Derby Favorite...

    These are the opening Odds for The Virginia Derby, And, A little Surprising is that Nicanor is the Odds on Favorite!!!:

1 – Affirmatif, DeCarlo, 8-1

2 – Florentino, Garcia, 6-1

3 – Take the Points, Prado, 12-1

4 – NICANOR, LEZCANO, 7-2

5 – Safety Valve, Camacho, 30-1

6 – Straight Story, Lopez, 10-1

7 – Hold Me Back, Desormeaux, 5-1

8 – El Crespo, Leparoux, 6-1

9 – Battle of Hastings, Baze, 4-1

10 – Lime Rickey, Velasquez, 8-1

    Umm, I would have had Battle of Hastings a slight favorite over Nicanor, But I am not complaining...

Greg J. 13 Jul 2009 9:00 PM

Why in God's name are they switching riders? Rosie did a great job with him in his last 2 races. Bad move,oh, well good, luck Nicanor.  Go baby, go!

Beth 13 Jul 2009 9:12 PM

Best of luck to Nicanor. This is indeed a tough field. Add to that, it's the longest race he's had to run yet--we're looking at a definite class check for him! I'm hopeful he'll make a good show of himself, even if he doesn't win.

Into the deep end!

nonnonheinous 13 Jul 2009 9:16 PM

Why in God's name are they switching riders? Rosie did such a great job with him in his last 2 starts. I would of flown Rosie from Antartica to get her there for this race.

Oh well, Good luck Nicanor. Go Baby go!

Beth 13 Jul 2009 9:21 PM

Good luck Nicanor and Jose!!!!!!

Let's show 'em how its done!

horsenut23 13 Jul 2009 9:28 PM

Trial by fire is an understatement!

JAJ 13 Jul 2009 9:35 PM

Good Luck Nicanor!  Hopefully big brother Barbaro will be looking down on you and sending you good vibes!

Laurenhl 13 Jul 2009 9:36 PM

Oh Oh, Desormeaux On Hold Me Back, this is going to be tough for Nicanor.  Sorry that Rosie won't be riding him; I wonder why.

Mary 13 Jul 2009 9:42 PM

Does anyone know what Battle of Hastings beyer was in the Colonial Turf?

GO NICANOR GO!!!!

Kathy 13 Jul 2009 10:01 PM

LET'S GO BIG GUY!!! You can do it!!!!!

Chase 13 Jul 2009 10:07 PM

Kathy,

    The reason RA work was called a bullet was because it was the fastest of all others that went that distance. She could've still been breezing. Also just about all works a Fair Hill are termed as breezing. RA's fractions weren't exceptionally fast, and we don't know what the trainer asked of each. But as i said a bullet is not a term used to describe the intesity of the work, like breezing. It is only there to say that she posted the fastest time of every other horse that went that distance.

LDP 13 Jul 2009 10:27 PM

I think Hold Me Back wins this race, but I worry about how smart Nicanor must be.  Any horse who can read blogs has to be respected.

Ted from LA 13 Jul 2009 10:28 PM

Wishing you a safe and winning run, Nicanor.  My thoughts and prayers are with you.  I agree with one of the early post, that you have to take a chance and see how really good he is(which we already know he is really good). I am positive that M Matz and the Jacksons are very confident in Nicanor to place him in a race like this.  Go Nicanor!!!  To those lucky enough to be there, please lots of pictures and details.  Thank you!  

Penny in TX 13 Jul 2009 10:50 PM

Um, the morning line odds look a little bit off to me...  I take it they are assuming Nicanor will be bet down because of the fan popularity?  It would be pretty difficult to make a sound bet on him to win, let alone at those odds.

Emily 13 Jul 2009 11:07 PM

i think if Jose can pace him better than Rosie did last race he should be on the board if not the win. his workout times have been improving steadily.

Nick 13 Jul 2009 11:15 PM

everyone must understand that the other jockeys who was aboard nicanor has other commitments like edgar prado. he commited to take the points before nicanor was ever aimed at this stakes race. and besides a lot of great horses are great because of everything they had to overcome every race. one the weight, the track condition and lastly a new jockey. since most of them are rode by a new rider no less than 4-7 times. but sometimes they get one jockey for their entire career

anna winnett 13 Jul 2009 11:18 PM

Lime Rickey is gonna bust some bootayy

Anna 13 Jul 2009 11:28 PM

theelk:  Prado has ridden Take The Points for most, if not his entire career, including his maiden win last September as well as the Preakness this year.

As for the questions of why Rosie is not riding - someone mentioned she was dueling for the riding title at Delaware in a very close race.  To give up the chance to win the title there to ride Nicanor who is, let's face it, a long long shot here (regardless of the odds) would be a stupid decision on her part.  And, as mentioned, she may have prior commitments w/ other trainers.  But who knows, maybe there were other factors as well.

Everyone seems to be behind Matz's decisions constantly, so why start doubting now?

SharpHumor87 13 Jul 2009 11:57 PM

Be safe sweet fella! win,lose or draw we all love you!!

gammyp6 14 Jul 2009 12:05 AM

Ragsy...the racing at CHD doesn't start again until Nov 1st. They are not racing now. BY the way...anyone can go to their web site and vote for or against the night racing to continue. I voted yes!

I think Nicanor will fly by the boys saying "See ya later boys." I just want him to come home safe and happy, win or lose. We'll still love him no matter what happens Sat.

I'm posting my web site for the pics of Church Hill Downs and the Barbaro exhibit there at the Kentucky Derby Museum. It was great. Will post some more later. Just realized I didn't include the pic of Barbaro's statue at night. It really looks great. Hope you enjoy. Oh, they did post backwards, so you might want to start at the bottom and work your way up. Sorry.

www.flickr.com/.../40434793@N08

Hope that Lezcano will ride Nicanor and get a good feel for how he likes to run before Sat. Would still feel better if Rosie was on top. Go Nicanor, your #1 in my book. Will be watching with the rest of your fans.

Thanks Ron for the update. Please keep us posted on Lentenor, Babynor and LVR and new filly on the way.

Lou in TX 14 Jul 2009 1:22 AM

Well big boy, this is it…this is your second big test.  As I was sure back in 06 with your brother, I’m as confident in you today!  (I know a lot of you don’t understand the connection between humans and animals, and that’s ok).  You know what is ahead of you; and you are aware of the shoes that we (humans) have expected you to fill.  As you rest tonight, I know you are aware of what’s coming…and what you have to do!  Nicanor…you will do your best, you will dig down, and you will succeed.  When everyone thought that Big Brown was a washout after the Belmont, I witness his heart at the Haskell, and I will witness your heart on the 18th.  The great state of Texas will be beside you, period, nothing else to be said!!

Little Man of Texas, Festus, Dolly Shasta Gale and Dallas from Texas.        

Dallas 14 Jul 2009 1:38 AM

THIS IS IT!!!!!!!!!!!

Go Nicanor, you have a big job to do but you'll be running with a lot of love and well wishes to speed you on to victory. Victory will be where ever you finish and finish safe and strong. You're a winner in my book, now go show the world your dust.

Oh yeah, lets have a clean race, we all know what certain Jockeys are capable of. You Jockeys need to race to win and not race to spoil someone elses' day.

Dona 14 Jul 2009 1:43 AM

"Where's the rest of the 3yos hiding? What happened to all the Smarty's? Anyways im still having a hay day as a racing fan.

shesfast 13 Jul 2009 7:43 PM"

Shesfast, the Smarties are coming out!! Backtalk (2yo) just won a stakes race, and I'll Show Them (3yo) is tearing up Hollywood and is being pointed toward stakes races at Del Mar. Sunday, Ricoriatoa and Plasma Beam broke their maidens. It would be nice to see what (MM trained) Rockland is up to, though... he was Nick's stablemate, along with Ice Road, who just broke his maiden not long ago.

As for the rider, give Jose a chance, hopefully he has learned the "do's" and "don't's" of Nicanor from Rosie, and they may want Nick to run a different race than the breakneck, race-to-the-front style he's been successful with at DP. This is an entirely different kind of field than those he's faced at Delaware, which were great confidence builders. This race is Nicanor's Kentucky Derby, he is really going to have to step up and "act his age" to win here. Battle of Hastings has a stakes win over this turf, and will be a formidable foe. The others are no slouches, either. Prado may have already committed to Take the Points, or Lezcano may have gotten first call on Nicanor, we don't know the story there.

Battle of Hastings, Take the Points, and Florentino will carry 121# and the rest will carry 117#.

Concerned Fan 14 Jul 2009 3:16 AM

Nicanor hates being against the

rail with horses to the outside.

Rosie was quick to get him out

of an uncomfortable position

and into the lead in both of their races together.  Lezcano

is a good jockey,but he was very slow to understand the

problem and waited until it

was too much for Nicanor and he backed off.  I hope that

Mr. Matz makes sure that the problem is understood.  The

4th post may help.  Boy,I really want him to win this one!!

Zia 14 Jul 2009 5:01 AM

Colonial Turf Cup 2009 www.youtube.com/watch Check out the times, this was a pretty slow race. If Nicanor gets loose on the lead they won't catch him.

BriGuy 14 Jul 2009 6:04 AM

Pyro

Your Comment:

Date: July 11, 2009

Track: BELMONT PARK

Distance: Five Furlongs

Time: 1.03:21 Breezing

Track Condition: Fast

Surface: Dirt

Rank: 8/15

Mine That Bird

Your Comment:

Date: July 13, 2009

Track: CHURCHILL DOWNS

Distance: Five Furlongs

Time: 1.02:00 Breezing

Track Condition: Fast

Surface: Dirt

Rank: 11/17

Nicanor

Your Comment: Barbaro's Brother

Date: July 7, 2009

Track: FAIR HILL

Distance: Five Furlongs

Time: 1.01:00 Breezing

Track Condition: Fast

Surface: Dirt

Rank: 1/5

Looks to me like Nicanor can run with the best of them. No surprise he's the favorite.

BriGuy 14 Jul 2009 6:11 AM

To all of those who asked why Edgar or Rosie wasn't riding Nicanor.  Here's the statistics by wins through yesterday:

Name - Ranking - % wins - %ITM - Mounts

Lezcano:    20 of 100  18%  50%  681

Napravnik:  38 of 100  16%  47%  610

Prado:       94 of 100 13%  43%  538

Prado isn't performing like he once was.  He's overrated.  Perhaps karma is coming home for some of his stunts and whiney claims of foul. He is not one to put on a pedestal.  He did jump off Barbaro and hold him, but any jockey who was able to would have.  It's time for people to get real.  He did his job.  He's soon going to be a has-been, a good jockey, but not great.  MOST of the posters here had NEVER heard of Napravnik or Lezcano until they rode Nicanor, yet this year both are doing better than Prado.

Don't second guess the trainer.

yawn 14 Jul 2009 7:44 AM

BriGuy, you cannot compare workout times with race times.  They are not the same and not comparable, especially from racetrack to racetrack.

A breeze is TRAINING, not racing.  No trainer ever wants a horse to go at top speed in a breeze.  A breeze is designed to set a horse up to win the race on raceday.

To say Nicanor can run with the best based on his breeze time is ludicrous.

On another note, if Matz had wanted Rosie to ride Nicanor, she would be on him is she wasn't doing days for a riding infraction.  A riding title means nothing compared to the opportunity of a graded stakes race.

I don't understand the morning line odds.  The odds maker didn't seem to handicap the race--it looks like he/she handicapped the betting public.  Nicanor should be a long shot in the race.  He might be a live longshot, but there is no way he should be ranked above graded stakes winners.

JAJ 14 Jul 2009 8:30 AM

Thank you LDP, although I was being a bit facetious, I really didn't know the meaning. I believe Nicanor was co-fastest on his last workout. So I suppose that doesn't rate even a co-bullet workout? Oh well...if that phrase doesn't exist in horse racing terminology, it should.

Kathy 14 Jul 2009 8:45 AM

BE SAFE AND COME BACK TO THE WINNER'S CIRCLE AND HAVE YOUR PICTURE TAKEN!!!  

DARLA 14 Jul 2009 8:49 AM

Unless Nicanor will rate willingly in the derby, I don't think he can carry his speed through the race on the front end. Remember he's going to be pressed by Afirmatiff and a couple others this time around, and they definitely are better competition than he's faced so far.

Also, the Colonial cup time may have been slow but Nicanor's recent allowance win was actually slower at the mile point (1:38.58 vs 1:39.2). I'll be happy if he finishes in the money. This will be a good experience for him.

Toral 14 Jul 2009 8:59 AM

I see another thread coming on.

Date: July 13, 2009

Track: FAIR HILL

Distance: Four Furlongs

Time: 49:00 Breezing

Track Condition: Fast

Surface: Dirt

Rank: 1/7

Kathy 14 Jul 2009 9:11 AM

Ambitious placing to be sure!  I'm a bit surprised the Jacksons threw him into the deep end of the pool so soon.  Obviously, the horse has talent, but to spot so much seasoning to an accomplished field is really asking a lot.  Still, I'll be rooting for him along with everybody else.  I may not be betting on him, though....

Bill 14 Jul 2009 9:13 AM

Nicanor, I'm a believer and I know you can win this race with a good trip.  Just come home safe.

Marilyn 14 Jul 2009 9:20 AM

This race is not only tough, but it doesn't set up too well for a front-runner like Nicanor.  As mentioned before he'll have company up front from Affirmatiff as well as Straight Story.  

The handicapper at Colonial should be fired.  Nothing would please me more to see Nicanor win, but he should be the 4th favorite at best.

Canarse 14 Jul 2009 10:07 AM

Nicanor's morning line is not odds-on. Odds-on is when the first number is smaller than the second.  His morning line is 7/2.  That means you'll get $7 back for every $2 you bet (if he wins).  

Odds-on would be if his odds were 2/7 for instance.  

He's the morning line favorite because the odds maker figures Nicanor will get pounded at the window by sentimental bettors. The odds maker is supposed to set the odds according to what he thinks the betting public will do - he's not supposed to handicap the race.  So in other words, he's doing his job correctly by setting Nicanor as the ML favorite.

Sydney 14 Jul 2009 10:21 AM

Here's hoping for a win or at least be on the board for the first try in stakes company.  Looks like Nicanor is facing some stiff competition, but I hope he is up to the task and if his connections didn't think he had a shot, they most likely would not have entered him in the race.  Best wishes for a safe race!

Nicole - have fun at Breyerfest and when you visit the Hall of Champions, please give them all a couple of peppermints if you can!

txbarbfan 14 Jul 2009 10:36 AM

HORSES CAN'T READ THE TOTEBOARD OR THE COMMENTARY ON THE RACE SO YOU JUST GO BIG BOY. I AM WITH YOU ALL THE WAY. IF MICHAEL DIDN'T THINK HE WAS READY HE WOULDN'T START HIM. JUST HAVE FUN, DO THE BEST YOU CAN, RUN LIKE THE WIND, AND MOST OF ALL COME HOME SAFE!!!!

CHRIS B 14 Jul 2009 10:55 AM

A tall order for sure - a win would be outstanding, hitting the board would be great too!  As long as he puts out a good effort and comes home safe & more experienced I'll be happy.  I hope the Jackson's choose to run Nicanor as a 4yo because that's when I think we'll get to see what he's really capable of....

Greg J.,

I would expect no less - and I hope you're right - just like Rail Trip!

Anyway let's all get ready to enjoy the day!

Bob D. 14 Jul 2009 11:00 AM

Yawn, I know you only visit this blog when you need to let out your inner jerk and can't find a puppy to kick, but your comments always remind us that you know nothing about Barbaro's connections, whatever you may know about horse racing.  Edgar Prado is a Hall of Fame jockey, which doesn't make him Shoemaker or Hartack, but at least allows him an honorable place in this sport.  He is beloved by all fans of Barbaro not just for doing his job, but for loving the horse as we do.  Read his book.  Prado has been having a lousy year and his best days might be behind him, but he is still a force to be reckoned with on race day.  

I will be thrilled if Nicanor hits the board in this group.  I'm glad the Jacksons are willing to test their horse with such an ambitious step up.  I will be there on race day cheering him on and hoping for a good safe race for all.            

Grey K 14 Jul 2009 11:02 AM

GOOOO NICANOR!!=]=] YAYYYY! CANT WAIT TO SEE THIS RACE. BEST OF LUCK! EVERYTHING IS ON YOUR SIDE!=] I LOVE YOU NICANOR! COME HOME SAFE AND SOUND THATS MOST IMPORTANT AND PS- WHOOP THEIR BUTTS!:)

ilovenicanor 14 Jul 2009 11:37 AM

Ashame, the one time I can't make it up to Colonial on a Saturday and I would love to have seen Nicanor run in person.  I'll be up there Friday evening for the evening races but I do hope to catch the race on tv Saturday, I have a family event to attend to....

Baylee 14 Jul 2009 11:54 AM

I can't wait for Saturday! I honestly just want to see a game effort from him... does anyone know if Nic will have the blinkers on in this race? Win, place or off the board - doesn't matter , Im rooting for Nicanor!

Lady Ruffian 14 Jul 2009 12:10 PM

I was very disappointed by Prado’s ride on Fabulous Strike in the General George (G2) back in FEB at LRL.

His ride in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (UAE-1) on Indian Blessing was also disappointing.

But, I am not a jockey; so who am I to judge?

Virgil Fox 14 Jul 2009 12:15 PM

Run safe Nicky Knocks!  May your brother run by your side, give you double the speed, and keep you safe!

MJ in SC 14 Jul 2009 12:16 PM

I,m betting on you to win and be safe.

DaisyMae 14 Jul 2009 12:24 PM

Greg J.  What is this with Prado being on Take The Points right next to Nicky?  I must say that I am stunned at those odds.  Nicky is the fav?  I don't mind Jose on Nicky at all.  Why isn't Rosie riding him?  I thought that they had a bond.  

Nicky stay safe safe and more safe.  Love You and lots of hugs and peppermints for you OK?  :)

StardustyRose 14 Jul 2009 12:33 PM

Leave them eatting your dust Nicanor!!! We all have faith in you. We all know why Nicanor is the favorite in this race and that dosen't have to do with his race record wich is by the way is fantastic for him. Prado and Rosie are both great jockeys but you may never know why the Jacksons are using them. Maybe they accidently did something worng the Jacksons just want to find the best jockey for there colt. I would do that if I were them. GOOD LUCK NICANOR!!

HopeforaTripleCrown 14 Jul 2009 1:22 PM

Do your best, Nicky! This is a big one!

Arem 14 Jul 2009 1:29 PM

I think the turf races tend to be very competitive over all, so if they want to continue running him on the turf, he will eventually have to face those tougher competitors.  He seems to be training very well and I think this is a great spot for him.  I think Nicanor will put in a great effort--not sure if he'll win it or not, but I think he's going to be right there with a chance at the end.  I know I'm not going to second-guess Matz--he knew who the probable starters would be when he entered Nicanor and he still felt it was a good idea to put him in this race, so that's good enough for me.  Go Nicanor!!!

Audra 14 Jul 2009 1:32 PM

Nicanor and Jose can do it!  

The one to stay away from is #7 ... the jockey, of course!  lol

Wear those blinkers, Nicanor!

Cheers to you both.  

GinnieJ 14 Jul 2009 1:37 PM

Grey K,

    Thank You for saying exactly what I wanted to say...

Yawn,

    You obviously have no idea what you are talking about, Or you just talk nonsense to insight a reaction.  Edgar Prado is a Hall of Fame Jockey, He still rides plenty of Stakes winners, He is coming off an illness this year, He just won the $400,000 Suburban Handicap (Grade 2) with "Dry Martini" trained by Barclay Tagg, Also, He won the $200,000 Dwyer Stakes(Grade 2) with "Kensei", Trained by Steve Asmussen.  He has over 6,250 Wins, Not too bad for a 42 year old Hall of Fame Jockey, I would say, So to call him "Over-rated" and a "Has been" just shows your lack of respect and knowledge for a Hall of Fame Jockey...Too Funny, lol...

Greg J. 14 Jul 2009 1:40 PM

Go Baby Go:)

Cassidy 14 Jul 2009 1:42 PM

WOO! Go Nicky!

Glassoniongirl 14 Jul 2009 1:43 PM

A big step up for Nicanor but I think he has a really good chance here.  It's obvious that if love could carry him across that line first he'd be a sure bet, absolutely unbeatable.  I just pray that love carries him (and all of them) across the finish line safely.

I'm so excited!! I've never been to the Virginia Derby before.  This is a great race to start with!!

TerriV 14 Jul 2009 1:49 PM

Never ever underestimate Michael Matz. I learned that lesson a very long time ago when he was riding in the horse shows. Yes, this is not going to be a daunting task for Nicanor, but win or lose, and I'm praaying for a win, his blood line and lineage says it all. On SAt. I will be watching but not betting. I always pass on wagering on horses I really like and it seems to end up with my favorite either winning or hitting the board, but not disgracing themselves. the only thing I hope is that the stewards are observant as far as Mullins is concerned. Nicky does not need to lose to a horse who could be 'juiced'.

Go Nicky Go!!!

Tricia - Calif Fan 14 Jul 2009 2:15 PM

Kathy,

    I'm not completely sure, but i think if two horses tie for the fastest time they each recieve the bullet title for their work.

LDP 14 Jul 2009 2:19 PM

NEED a longshot so i be looking for Todd Pletcher to bring in TAKE the Points and AFFirmatif.I do Know that Affirmatif is faster then Nicanor.

steve s 14 Jul 2009 2:27 PM

Well now lets see how good he is , now that he won't be running against a bunch of stiffs.Good race to watch can he carry his speed wire to wire?Phantom is Nicanor a lock to win? I think not.

2 time valley player of the year 14 Jul 2009 2:27 PM

Don't read too much into Rosie not riding Nic. This weekend at Delaware is their big racing weekend with lots of stakes races. She would be letting a lot of other owners down to leave just for one race elsewere. I'm sure she can't afford to give up those rides.

Best of luck to Nicanor on this one. But don't write him off just because of his front running style. We watched to major stakes races (I think Hollywood and Belmont) 4th of July weekend that were both won by front runners. So it can be done if you leave enough in the tank to have some kick at the end.

Nic just needs to be safe, and if he doesn't win, he will have learned some important lessons.

I believe it was Rail Trip, in last weeks stakes race at Hollywood that lost the two previous stakes attempts, but learned out to rate in the process. He figured it out an won big the third time.

Nic needs to step up in company and learn what he needs to do to run with the big boys.

I find it interesting that we will have not one, but two ex Open Jumper riders that have turned trainers. The other being the legendary Rodney Jenkins who rode the incomparable Idle Dice to many titles (I saw him many times). Good luck to both!

Elaine D 14 Jul 2009 2:40 PM

This might be a tougher race for Nicanor... good to see he's being given a challenge for a change! I'm sure he'll do fine, though.

Zenyatta 14 Jul 2009 2:46 PM

I agree with Nicanor's rating issues.  This is 10f, and he was seriously slowing down in the last one at the end. He will have to rate.  If he can relax in the middle of the pack, the #4 position may help him.  Otherwise, this may be a learning experience for him (and the owner/trainer).  How will he handle it?

Kat 14 Jul 2009 2:58 PM

I'm so excited for Saturday.  Go Nicanor Go!  I believe in you!!!

Kim R 14 Jul 2009 3:01 PM

the m/l maker @ colonial must be nuts. a front runner on the grass who's never proved anything other than his gift for trouncing delaware turf maidens and weak group of winners, is the favorite????? doubtful the public will bet it that way, so alas, the oppotunity is not as strong as was his debut. i'll still bet against, don't think he'll stay......

rick 14 Jul 2009 3:52 PM

Tough spot but he has a chance.  There are numerous solid runners in there, but no beasts.  I mean Hold Me Back, who has never been on turf, is 5-1 third choice.  Which with his closing kick and out of Giants Causeway I think he was made for the turf.  

My predicted order:

1.  Hold Me Back

2.  Nicanor

3.  Florentino

4.  Battle of Hastings.  

Crafton 14 Jul 2009 4:12 PM

I watch a lot of racing and I think this is a perfect start for Nicanor.  I don't believe he is outclassed at all.  It's true, it seems to be a very competitive field and he may not win but I think he'll put in an impressive showing.  I think the only horse he really needs to worry about in the race is Straight Story.  We'll all find out on Saturday!

Sharon M 14 Jul 2009 5:26 PM

  Hi FOB:)  Haven't been on here for a few weeks, so very glad for the info from all on the race on Sat. Here's wishing Nicanor does his very best, and all horses come out of the race safely.

  I think Edgar Prado will always hold a special place in the hearts of all FOB. I will always think well of him, and wish him the best of success.

  Stardustyrose, I have been on these blogs only a few months but notice your comments are especially positive, and enjoyable to read :)

My Juliet 14 Jul 2009 6:14 PM

Have a safe trip Nicanor.

Don't get in a speed duel in front!

And yes, Desormeaux is in this race although I don't know if he'll be up front with Hold Me Back.

Perhaps he'll settle behind Nicanor expecting to have a hole when Nicanor runs out of steam.

Run a different race this time boy, RELAX and RATE for Lezcano.

HorseFirst 14 Jul 2009 6:19 PM

Safe racing for ALL the horses.

Nicky ~ don't let the pressure of us "humans" bother you. Just do the best you can sweetie! That's all that matters.

JudyLovesJohnHenry 14 Jul 2009 6:26 PM

I, myself, would like to see Prado on Nicanor but Jose will be just fine and of course having the experience of riding him before will be key. Matz knows what he's doing. I also feel like this is shaping up to be a great betting race. I'm looking so forward to being at Colonial Downs to see Nicanor and cheer him on in person!

Horswld 14 Jul 2009 7:16 PM

Go Nicky - You had to meet the big guys sometime. Show them what you got because I just know you got alot. Run Fast - Run Safe.

KitKat 14 Jul 2009 7:26 PM

GO NICKY!!!!!

Good luck!

horsefan4ever 14 Jul 2009 7:42 PM

Very Simple...He is the morning line favorite because he will draw the most post time money..Sydney is correct--but it ain't sentimental.  Highest beyer on turf all year all ages:  107 Sailor's Cap (race before tragedy).

Highest Turf Beyer for 3 year old:  Nicanor (DEL 5/13/09): 104

Gio Ponti's three grade 1 wins: 106, 105, 104--and the 106 was @ a mile. Gio is the best US turf horse currently, and is 4.

I think the next highest 3 year old turf BSF is Giant Oak @ 100 or 101 at Arlington.  Beyer figures have been the most reliable handicapping tool available for three year olds, especially regarding triple crown.  If you believe in them-don't bet against Nicanor.  Period.

brettzky99 14 Jul 2009 8:07 PM

FYI,

    Regarding Mr. Matz and Jose Lezcano, Mr. Matz has had Jose ride quite a few of his horses in the past, For instance, On the same day Nicanor is racing, Mr. Matz has "Katara" with Jose Lezcano on board, She is a beautiful 3 year old filly, Her record, 7 Starts: 2 - 1 - 2, $49,490, She is entered  in the 10th race, The $150,000 Virginia Oaks(5:14 p.m. Start), She will be a long shot(15-1), It is a very good field!,  I like her along with "Fast Tigress" and "Blind Date".

    Another thing, Jose Lezcano has won the Turf Cup at this track in 2007 with "Summer Doldrums".  Lastly, The Jackson's(LAEL) won the 1 Million Dollar Turf Cup in 2006 with "Showing Up", Trained by Barclay Tagg.  

Greg J. 14 Jul 2009 8:09 PM

GO NICANOR BUT DON'T PUSH YOUR SELF TO HARD YOU CAN DO IT

meleah 14 Jul 2009 8:12 PM

good luck Nicky, keep an eye on your little brother Barbaro

Meg 14 Jul 2009 8:14 PM

Rain expected on Fri. hope the course drys out(unlike his

last turf outing)!  Just keep

him off the rail and maybe he

can rate!  

 I'm surprised that no on saw

the reason ARN took him to

the lead!  You have to get him

to the outside to even try to

get him comfortable enough

to rate.

Zia 14 Jul 2009 8:14 PM

El Crespo #1

Nicanor #2

Affirmtif #3

I can't wait to see the results!

MRO 14 Jul 2009 8:21 PM

brettzky,

simple as what?

delaware heroes getting waxed by better competetion?

in fact, beyer figs are all VERY relative.

does nothing to explain the actual race, and how little the others in his delaware triumphs actually pushed this animal. read nothing into inflated delaware beyers for horses shipping to other tracks and facing better. my guess is this....the bettors wouldn't dare let this pretender go off favored, if they do, I'll take my chances. Doubt seriously I'll be out on a limb, he'll stop badly in the stretch. Watch more closely my friend, this happens every day. Very ambitious placement by Saint Matz.

rick 14 Jul 2009 8:59 PM

I love Nicanor as much as anyone. Not just because he is Barbaro's brother, but because of the nice horse he has become in his own right.

I would love to see him win this race, and his workout is encouraging, but frankly, I think it would be a miracle considering the competition. I think this is more of a test, granted a 3/4 million $ test, to see what Nicanor is really made of. This is a major step up for him.

Although I was impressed by his 15 length turf win at DP and how he seemed to use only what he needed in his last race, but this is a whole new ballgame. This is not a romp in the grass at Deleware Park.

I really hope Nicanor proves me wrong. As long as he comes home sound and happy, I could care less where he finishes. Nicanor has a bright future. As far as I know none of Dynaformers sons have really done well at stud, hopefully Nicanor will end up being the one.

Greg, since you seem to be the one to ask, what's coming up for Nicanor at Saratoga later this summer/fall? The reason I ask is I know MM races there. Isn't there a turf stakes on Travers day ? I think Nic would love it there.

mdfanofracing 14 Jul 2009 9:34 PM

Best Wishes for a Safe and Successful race, Nic.

This is Nicanor's chance to silence the critics who think full brothers won't live up to expectations.  Nic's getting a wonderful opportunity to prove himself in the company of some of the big boys.  If his workouts lately can tell us anything, I think he has a great chance to finish on the board- win even.  As to the jockey- all three are quite accomplished and all would do a great job with Nic.  So again, Good Luck to Nicanor, Jose, and all his connections!  We'll all be praying for a safe trip for all the horses.

Janet, CA 14 Jul 2009 10:15 PM

Greg, Thanks for mentioning  Showing up! I will never forget him and Barbaro running together in the Derby, practically as one for a while. Until of course Barbaro exploded at the top of the lane. I had forgotten Showing Up won the Turf Cup. Leal has been very lucky and had some really really nice horses. I Hope Showing Up does well in his stud career.

I see Leal's mare Bordighera by Alysheba has a 3/4 brother to George Washington by Danehill Dancer who is a yearling. She also has a 2 yr old Tiger Hill colt. In addition, she has produced grade one winner of over 2.8 million, Grandera. The Jacksons obviously know what they are doing when they breed a race horse. George sold for 2.1 million.

mdfanofracing 14 Jul 2009 10:20 PM

Although Nicanor is a very nice horse, and has the making to be a great turf horse, he in no way should be the morning line favorite in this race... He is coming off an allowance win, while the other horses in this race are grade 2 and 3 winners, mainly Battle of Hastings and Florentino, I believe in this race Nicky is a little over his head, not saying he can't run a big race, but this field is certainly by far the toughest field he has ever faced!!!

AfleetAlex#1fan 15 Jul 2009 12:14 AM

To be fair, 7-2 is actually a pretty high price for an ML favorite in a race with < this many starters, considering the next two are 4-1 and 5-1 it makes sense to me.

Tony Cheval 15 Jul 2009 12:20 AM

Also I recently picked up the PC game Titan Quest (Greek myth-themed Diablo clone if that means anything to you), and noticed one of the people you talk to in a village is named Nicanor, I was amused.

Tony Cheval 15 Jul 2009 12:22 AM

Let's see here.

1st race - (Debut) Grabbed a Quarter

2nd race - 2nd, Custom for Carlos 1st, Nicanor appears to be a little nervous by the rail.

3rd race - 2nd, Glitterman's Cartel 1st, Nicanor appears to be relieved once he is out of the crowd and lets up a bit.(If the race had been longer, I believe Nicanor would have won this one.

4th race - 15 1/2 lengths win , enuf said. A higher caliber of competition would have simply meant, a Nicanor win by 5 1/2 lengths. (Nicanor may have been feeling exceptional during this race or may have simply wanted to get it over with. Nicanor may have simply wanted someone to remove his blinkers.)

5th race - 1st, White Holiday 2nd, Stevil 3rd. Nicanor was near the rail, but Rosie moved him away from it and to the front. At the end of the race, Stevil was fading a bit and White Holiday was coming on strong.

I think Nicanor may be a little agoraphobic, which essentially means he gets a little panicky when he gets into a situation where there isn't an easy means of escape. That is why Nicanor loves the lead.

I can relate. There is nothing like being 5'2" in a sea of 6 footers walking to or from a concert or baseball game with no means of escape.

What I want to know is when Nicanor does win his first big one, be it this one or the next, what are the grumblers, going to grumble about next? I can hear it now, "Well, he is certainly no Citation." I am curious to know if Nicanor is not up to the race at a 7/2, why would any trainer put a horse in a stakes race like this with 12/1 odds or heaven forbid 30/1 odds?

Kathy 15 Jul 2009 12:25 AM

I'm planning on being at the rail to see Nicanor and snap a few photos at the post parade.

But geez...I wish Prado was the jockey for Nicanor..

Doesn't look good.

Prado on Take the Points is almost a shoe in....sorry, but he has won this particular race (The VA Derby) many times and can do this in his sleep at this track.

Otherwise Battle of Hastings won on this track June 20th at the Colonial Turf cup so that horse has felt this track's surface and this track before. And what an impressive win that was. Wow..

what a shock. Wonder why Prado hasn't been booked to ride on any of Nicanor's latest races???

Hmmmmm    Disappointing.  Especially after his encounter with Barbaro all those months Barbaro was in the vet hospital.

Anyway,...if Nicanor IS a "turf specialist" we'll see.    It has rained on 1/2 of the VA Derby dates since the beginning of the VA Derby in 1997.  So...hope Nicanor doesn't mind the raindrops.

But Colonial has an EXCELLENT turf surface. Wow...what a race this will be. Best case, the rain will fall as it usually does, during an earier race and no rain will fall for the actual race but a wet surface.  Problem though, we tend to get a deluge of rain not just a summer shower.

Elaine 15 Jul 2009 12:33 AM

Why isn't Rosie riding him?  She knows how to get the best out of Nicanor (as shown by his 2 outstanding wins).  Jose hasn't won a race riding him.  Rosie deserves to be on him for his stakes races, much more than Jose or Edgar Prado do.  

Rechelle 15 Jul 2009 8:32 AM

Umm Rick,

The purpose of Speed figures in general is to compare performances at different venues against different competition.  His 104 figure at Delaware, if it was a little agressive, was still I believe 6 or 7 points higher than any other Va Derby entry on turf, and he was under a hand ride due to the ridiculous margin of victory.  You may be right, he may tire in the stretch, but my post was a response to those who were shocked he was the m/l favorite.  Speed figures are a respected tool, and true don't always tell the whole story, but if you favor them, then you like Nicanor. That was my point. As for the race setting up:  if the top three (CNL turf cup) run fractions anywhere close to the modest pace they ran last month-they will certainly dig a hole.  I guess we will see.

brettzky99 15 Jul 2009 9:34 AM

Rechelle,

    For one she is one of the top jocks at DE park and this coming weekend is their biggest of the meet, which probably means she has prior commitments. Why would you give up proven mounts one the biggest weekend of the meet to ride in 1 stakes at another track. Also Rosie though a good jock never raced him over dirt, and we will never know if Nicanor lost those race because he was on dirt, he was not mature enough or the other jocks riding. MM even said he wasn't sure what caused Nicanors turnaroun, this was after his maiden. Jose also rode Nicanor to two seconds agaist two very good colts. We all know what Customs for Carlos has gone on to do. Jose being on him is just fine and all the ppl whining about it need to back off. MM knows what he is doing.

LDP 15 Jul 2009 11:07 AM

brettzky

although BSF's are SUPPOSED to assign a simple # value for a race time at any given distance/track, they do not account for trips IN ANY WAY. didn't you see the article by Andy Beyer himself detailing the change in synthetic beyer figs. very inexact and almost arbitrary science (to say the least, even the company who assigns the figs were getting them WRONG). delaware park does not have the greatest competition to offer stakes quality horses, and good BSF's by those horses are usually a reflection of the way the race was run. most of these good horses have things their own way in these small fields, and waltz home. beware of static handicapping methods, flexibility and adaptability are the horseplayer's best friends. rely on the eye, AND THE TIME (not one or the other)!!!!!!

rick 15 Jul 2009 11:22 AM

Greg J.  and Greg K.  

Both of you pretty much covered what I wanted to say about Edgar.  I also do NOT believe that ANY jockey could have stopped Barbaro that day.  A lot of jockeys jump ship and let the horse run.  Edgar put his all into holding Barbaro till help got there.  Edgar Prado is a wonderful and caring and GOOD jockey.  He is in the top and he is in the Hall of Fame and you don't get there by not being the best! :)

StardustyRose 15 Jul 2009 11:25 AM

My goodness, just reviewed a video clip of that magnificient Barbaro and what memories it brings back...yes, I love Nicanor,Lentenor,Babynor and the filly to come because of the wonderous Barbaro....these siblings have brought a new peace and happiness into my heart that had been broken by the death of BBH.......

Baby Brother Of Barbaro ..win that race for us Saturday............ ok Nicanor...be safe sweet one....

Ragsy 15 Jul 2009 11:49 AM

I'll be there in person and betting on Nicanor as a "sentimental" favorite.  However, I'll be betting on him to show - he's a solid horse, but most of the horses in the race are high class runners.

Susan 15 Jul 2009 12:57 PM

Mdfanofracing,

   It all depends on Nicanor's finish in the Derby Saturday.  Let's say, For the heck of it!, That he wins Saturday, Really, Two options for Mr. Matz and the Jackson's.  Nicanor can be pointed towards the $400,000 Secretariat Stakes(G1) at 1 1/4 Miles at Arlington on August 8, Or they can go for the $200,000 Ballston Spa Handicap(G2) at 1 1/16 Miles on August 29(Travers Day) at Saratoga, Obviously, Both are on Turf...

    Also, Here is a Great Video on "Youtube" of Barbaro and Big little Brother, Nicanor, Called, "He Lives in You"...

www.youtube.com/watch

    Finally, My friend Karen E-mailed me this great article on Barbaro and Nicanor, Thanks Karen!:

www.examiner.com/x-12303-Horse-Racing-Examiner~y2009m7d15-Nicanor-giving-Barbaro-fans-a-reason-to-shout

Go Nicanor...

Greg J. 15 Jul 2009 1:16 PM

Bonjour Nicanor!

This is the Big Boys League, and you can do it, Nicanor. This is the big test. Go for it, Nicanor!

You have it all - the pedigree, the speed, the will to do it, the beauty, great trainers, a great jockey, and great owners.

Go get them, Nicanor!

I will be watching.

Je vous t'aime, Nicanor!

Lise from Maine 15 Jul 2009 1:31 PM

Kathy and others, re workout times.

The "bullet" that Rachel ran is because hers was the fastest for the distance on that track.

Nicanor's was on another track, different surface, against different horses.  

These works aren't really comparable other than they're both good honest works.

He's got his hooves full this time and I wish him all the success in the world.   But I do not expect him to blow these horses off the grass and think a show placing would be more likely than a win.

He doesn't need to win this to make progress.  

And Rick is correct IMHO concerning Beyer figures.  Many people believe they're an objective measurement, but they are extremely subjective and are easily skewed.

I take the with a grain of salt and would recommend others do the same.

Lmaris 15 Jul 2009 2:33 PM

I hope Nicanor does well on Saturday, but I'm starting to wonder if he has the stamina that Barbaro had.  The way he really seemed to be slowing down in the stretch in his last race makes me wonder if he's most comfortable at a mile.

As for the rain...hopefully he doesn't mind it.  I follow a LOT of Dynaformer babies, and one of my favorites, Boss Lafitte, simply refuses to try if he doesn't have the hardest possible ground.

swale1984 15 Jul 2009 2:52 PM

Ron..I hope you will post this one even though its not about our wonderful horses related to our beloved Barbaro.....or his siblings...

anyone that can help,  Habitat For Horses  www.habitatforhorses.org or admin@habitatforhorses.org

they have saved 220 horses from Nebraska a couple of months ago...can you spare a dollar or more..... send to :

Habitat For Horses, INC

PO Box 213,

Hitchock. Texas 77563

I am a supporter can you help.....

Ragsy 15 Jul 2009 4:54 PM

Please quit writing the same about Rosie not being on Nicanor. The ? is simple to answer. If Rosie was available she would be riding. She is a Delaware Park jock and has to fulfill prior commitments just like Borel did with Mine that Bird.

Brian 15 Jul 2009 5:47 PM

I really take exception to this statement by Stardustyrose:

"Both of you pretty much covered what I wanted to say about Edgar.  I also do NOT believe that ANY jockey could have stopped Barbaro that day.  A lot of jockeys jump ship and let the horse run.  Edgar put his all into holding Barbaro till help got there.  Edgar Prado is a wonderful and caring and GOOD jockey.  He is in the top and he is in the Hall of Fame and you don't get there by not being the best! "

I doubt most jockey's would keep their jobs if they bailed on every horse they had a chance of stopping from further damage.  It's far better to get the horse stopped and out of everyone's way than to let it run and finally fall in front of other horses and jockeys.  Ruffian's jockey tried his best to get her to stop, and when he did:

"Vasquez fought her to a plunging, bouncing halt. He jumped off and planted himself to hold her up on her right side."

IF the horse is becoming dangerous and IF there is NO chance of stopping it before it falls, then MAYBE the jockey would bail.  But to make a blanket statement that "a lot of jockey's jump ship and let the horse run" is something that you better have LOTS and LOTS of examples to back up because otherwise, you are libeling a lot of good people.

Let me also add that if a horse stumbles, they can throw the jockey.  It's not always the jockey's intent to "bail."

I admire and respect Prado for what he did for Barbaro.  But this nonsense that only Prado could have stopped Barbaro or only Prado would try to help the horse once stopped is pure nonsense.  Prado had the opportunity and the space to pull up Barbaro.  Barbaro did pull up and was better about it than Ruffian.  Had he been in the middle of the pack or had no room to maneuver, I imagine that you would not be singing his praises today and that instead, Prado would be that evil being that would not save Barbaro.

Luck and circumstance had a lot to do that day.  You insult the vast majority of jockeys with your unending worship of Prado as the ONLY one who would have done what he did.  Prado is a good guy- but he is not the only one who would have done the best he could by the horse.

HorseFirst 15 Jul 2009 6:06 PM

As long as Nicky does the very best he can win or lose will be all right by me.  Yes he is in tough company but he may surprise us all.  MM knows what he is doing or even possibly trying to find out what he can really do if pushed.  You have to start somewhere and this looks like we will see what he really has in the tank.  Go Nicanor I know you can do it. 1-3 place would be great but if you come out of the race safe that is all that matters because I will always be in your corner win or lose.

lobieb 15 Jul 2009 6:52 PM

La Ville Rouge was a mudder which is why Barbaro ran well in slop. So don't worry about Nicanor in rain.

MJ 15 Jul 2009 7:18 PM

Rick,

Andy Beyer has been put under pressure to modify the methodology regarding synthetics since California mandated the surfaces.  There has been alot of pressure, especially from those who argue that the dynamic of a synthetic race confound the BSF as it stands; and as a result there has been a recession in claiming, since potential parties often look to Beyer progressions in their valuations of a given horse (actually Keeneland has also taken this position somewhat).  The issue came to a head during the triple crown prep season, when Bob Baffert routinely publicly dismissed the low speed figures assigned to Pioneerof the Nile, as a flaw in the figures, and that there should be an approximate 20 point upward revision from the SA surface to dirt (this was despite 2 triple digit BSFs earned by The Pamplemousse on the same track).  Beyer will change the formula for synthetics come the first of the year.  However, in my opinion, if you look at the performance of the California horses at the Preakness in normal weather conditions, the speed figures were a reliable indicator.  As for the second tier tracks and the trip itself, I agree that it can compensate the measure BUT IT GOES BOTH WAYS.  For instance, Dunkirk was rated very highly in Triple Crown consideration despite low speed figures, prior to the Fla Derby, because his final times were slower due to  him forced 4-5+ wide on tough trips.  Nicanor, on the other hand, had a golden trip at DP, but was under no urging whatsoever.  BSFs are not perfect, but have certainly been an effective tool in both handicapping and claiming.  They don't always tell the whole story, but you would be in the minority of most top horsemen and handicappers to label the method as "arbitrary to say the least".

brettzky99 15 Jul 2009 8:28 PM

This will be Nicanor's chance to show himself~!!

I have a cousin who has a horse racing at Colonial Downs Saturday also, but I am more interested in Nicanor. He should be rested and ready!

Linda / Maryland 15 Jul 2009 10:04 PM

Our hearts and minds are focused on Nicanor's greatest test so far. Today I was reminded of the fact that his two wins were orchestrated by a very talented jockey who also faces a test on Saturday as she fights for the jockey's title at Delaware.  I think that a little positive thinking from us toward her goal would be in order.  She felt honored that she was asked to ride him,I hope that we honor her with best wishes!

Zia 15 Jul 2009 10:24 PM

Have you ever noticed that critics will ALWAYS be critics. The horse could jump through hoops, run at warp speed and overcome all obstacles and it is never good enough! Critics will always have something negative to say i.e. the competition is weak, the best horse had a troubled trip, the winner had a perfect trip, the stewards are crooked...et.al. Think of Lost in the Fog. He raced at 8 different race tracks, had blazing speed and it still wasn't good enough for THE CRITICS.

If Nicanor wins, THE CRITICS will say that the other top contenders had a bad trip, didn't like the surface (too firm, too soft), the jockey's fault etc.

I love Nicanor and will be rooting for him, but I think he's up against it here. This is a very tough field. No one will be happier than I should he win. GO NICANOR!

gailg 15 Jul 2009 11:07 PM

Does anyone here honestly think that Matz would enter Nicanor into this race if he didn't honestly believe that he could win?

Nick 15 Jul 2009 11:48 PM

Nicanor,

May the turf rise up to meet you.

May the wind be at your back. May the sun shine warm upon your face. And may you come home safe and sound on Saturday.

Good luck Nicky!

murphytime 16 Jul 2009 6:15 AM

I'm with you Nick. If M.M. hadn't thought Nicanor was up to the challenge, he would have entered Nicanor in another allowance race or smaller stakes race.

Go Nicanor Go!!! You can do it.

Kathy 16 Jul 2009 8:45 AM

looking at the entries on colonials web-site 1st time on lasix correct?

carry your speed big boy!!

tc01 16 Jul 2009 9:20 AM

FYI,

    I know I might be getting ahead of myself, But, If Nicanor has a good showing on Saturday, Like I said up above, One possibility could be the $400,000 Secretariat Stakes(G1) at 1 1/4 Miles at Arlington on August 8.  This was written this morning on Horse Race Insider regarding Nicanor:

    "Finally, the Secretariat Stakes could still easily get a tangy additional appetizer in the form of Lael Stable’s Nicanor – the late beloved Barbaro’s turf-favoring little brother. Nicanor is currently undefeated on the grass and slated to go to the post in Saturday’s Grade II Virginia Derby.  Should Nicanor run well at Colonial Downs this weekend, trainer Michael Matz would still have three weeks to prepare him for the $400,000 final leg of Arlington’s Mid-America Triple. Matz, it will be remembered, saddled Brushwood Stable’s Kicken Kris to win the Secretariat Stakes six years ago."

Go Nicanor...

Greg J. 16 Jul 2009 9:27 AM

For those wondering about Rosie, she is riding in the Barbaro stakes.  (On dirt)

www.bloodhorse.com/.../jones-has-pair-of-live-ones-in-barbaro-stakes

HorseFirst 16 Jul 2009 11:57 AM

I'm a Barbaro fan so Nicanor and Lentenor are the flesh and blood reminders of him for me.

By the way, I have a fifth of bourbon-750 mL- that is a Maker's Mark commemorative Ky Derby bottle listing Barbaro as the Ky derby winner in '06. It has a little green label which lists Barbaro as the 2006 winner.  I thought about offerring it to the Jackson's, to bury it with Barbaro but how would that have fit amidst Barbaro's ashes in his memorial statue's base?  Edgar Prado autographed it for me and thanked be for "honoring Barbaro" since I had some other Barbaro photos with me.  What a tender moment that was when I saw his face soften as he looked at my Barbaro memorabilia.

I really wish Edgar was aboard Nicanor Saturday.  Battle of Hastings is a formidable horse.

Edgar will be aboard Take the Points in a race that Edgar has won so many times (at Colonial he is the leading VA Derby winning jockey to date).  As for Nicanor, I hope he has "eaten his wheatties" that day. Battle of Hastings looked like a machine the day of the Colonial Turf Cup June 20th. But anything can happen on race day.

Elaine 16 Jul 2009 12:34 PM

go nicky go. stay safe. keeping my fingers crossed.

christy tate 16 Jul 2009 5:21 PM

Matz thinks that Nicanor has a good chance of winning  the Virginia Derby, otherwise there is no way he would have entered him.    

Mary 16 Jul 2009 7:46 PM

HorseFirst...

Hey there.  You misunderstood me but I can see why.  I do believe that there are a lot of jockeys that would have been able to stop Barbaro.  I also believe that a lot of them could not have.  THAT is what I should have typed.  That is what I meant.  I know that for the most part, jockeys try to stop the horses when they feel they are not sound but Prado did it very very well.  Remember Barbaro wanted to keep on running and Edgar had to really hold him hard to get him to stop.  That was incredible.  :)

StardustyRose 17 Jul 2009 1:00 AM

Sorry Folks; Looks like Nicanor will be scratched to, due to a training incident, This AM, Friday. May have hurt his rear leg. Lets hope its not bad.

Clearwater Charlie 17 Jul 2009 10:27 AM

According to Mrs Jackson, Nicanor has a bone bruse and needs time to heal. He's already back at Fair Hill and resting.

Thanks to Alex Brown for making the call and passing on the info.

Lou in TX 19 Jul 2009 10:07 AM

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