When Lentenor makes his 2010 debut in the ninth race at Gulfstream Park on Wednesday, he will face a full field of challengers, some of which have stellar pedigrees and connections to match.
The 3-year-old full brother to Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro has been installed the 3-1 morning line favorite in the 1 1/16 mile turf race that drew 16 entries and for which only 12 can start. Of course, Lentenor will be seeking his first win as he makes his third career start for owners Roy and Gretchen Jackson and trainer Michael Matz, the team that achieved much credit for their efforts to get Barbaro to win the Derby and then attempting to keep him alive at all costs, but to no avail.
On paper, Lentenor looks like a legitimate favorite, having finished third in his career debut on the Polytrack at Keeneland and coming back to be second, after bobbling at the break, in his turf debut at Aqueduct. Looking at the past performances, we see that neither of the horses that won the races in which Lentenor competed have come back to win again. Also, according to Daily Racing Form statistics, Matz has a 15% win rate for horses that have been away from the races 31-60 days, which is the case with Lentenor. Through Sunnday, Matz had one win from 10 starters at the current Gulfstream Park meet.
The list of those expected to give Lentenor a stiff test would have to include Bigshot, who has experienced trouble in three of his four starts, obviously comprising his chances of victory. In fact, in the colt's last race of 2009 he was moved up to third from fourth after being forced into the hedge, with jockey Albarado doing a masterful job of keeping him from falling. Trainer Ken McPeek has numbers similar to Matz, with a 18% strike rate for horses coming back after layoffs of between 31-60 days and has won with 11% of starters during the current meet.
Trainer Christophe Clement, who is known as a turf specialist and trained Gio Ponti to earn Eclipse Awards as champion turf and older male horse of 2009, has first-time starter Alcomatch entered. Clement has won two of four races at the Gulf meet, has a 22% win rate with first-time starters and has been in the winner's circle with 25% of his first-time turf starters.
Several others here could jump up and win, but at this point it looks like Lentenor is in a good spot to earn his first career victory.
By the way, if any of you FOBs are confident Lenny will follow in Barbaro's footsteps and win the Derby, you can get great odds in Derby Future Wagers in Las Vegas. For example, as of Jan. 13 the Race & Sports Book at Lucky's has Lentenor at 100-1 odds, down from his opening odds of 150-1. Champion male 2-year-old Luckin a Lucky is Lucky's (coincidence?) early Derby favorite at 10-1.