Alex Waldrop Straight Up : ESPN

These Numbers Don't Lie

aspradling — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 21:27:00 GMT

I have heard both directly and indirectly from a number of you in response to the consumer research reported in my blog last week. I noted in that blog that in 2009, polling conducted by the NTRA’s long-time polling consultants (who we share with Institute of Politics at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government) found that about 50.6 million adults in the U.S. qualify as Thoroughbred racing fans and that about 5.6 million adults say they attend a racetrack or an OTB or log onto an online wagering site and “bet a few times a month.” Some of you have questioned these numbers. Here is a brief explanation of how these results were reached.

Some questioned whether horse racing in the U.S. actually has about 50 million “casual” fans. That is not only the conclusion of a recent 2000+ respondent, Internet-based survey of sports fans conducted by SocialSphere Strategies for the NTRA. It’s a number that has been consistent over the course of the last 10 years of NTRA polling using a variety of online and offline methodologies.   Similarly, 10 years of ESPN Sports polls have consistently found that about 37% of adults (potentially 83 million people) described themselves as fans of our sport.

Others questioned whether our business has 5.6 million “core” fans - fans who watch and wager “a few times a month”. This number (which given the statistical margin for error could be somewhat higher or lower) is likewise supported by years of research at the NTRA. Once again, the ESPN Sports polls also confirm that roughly 2 to 3 percent of the adult population cite Thoroughbred racing as their “favorite sport.” 2.5 percent of the adult population of 223 million is 5.6 million fans.

These findings are further supported by the size of total attendance at racetracks nationwide. According to 2007 data, which is the most recent available, live attendance for 2007 at well over 200 thoroughbred, harness, quarter horse and mixed meet racetracks in 38 racing jurisdictions nationwide was approximately 20 million visits. Twenty million annual visits puts horse racing as the #2 spectator sport in America behind only one other U.S. major league sport, MLB, and ahead of the NFL, the NBA, the NHL and NASCAR. And many millions more racing fans visit the nation’s 1,100+ simulcast locations (including OTBs, dog tracks, jai alai frontons, casino race books, racinos and native American reservations) and ADW sites, many of which do not track attendance and which together account for about 90% of all handle. A dying industry we are not.

Think also about television viewership. In years when a Triple Crown sweep is on the line, total viewership for the Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes will approach as many as 30-35 million viewers. Yes, there are overlaps in viewers, but the Kentucky Derby is routinely the fourth or fifth highest rated sports broadcast behind the Super Bowl, the BCS Championship and the NCAA Men’s basketball finals – three sports that each have fan bases well in excess of 100 million.

Regardless of the specific numbers which some will always question, it is important to realize that the size and scope of horse racing in the U.S. are huge. Nonetheless, the sport’s somewhat local or regional appeal—and its diffused impact on local economies—make it tough for anyone to ever see its full scale and scope except on rare occasions like Kentucky Derby day. Both in terms of polling data from multiple independent sources and our own attendance data, there are millions of fans engaging with racing on a daily basis. However, even industry insiders don't often see or “feel” the impact, and this makes it difficult for many of them to understand the overall magnitude of the sport.

Our challenge as an industry, and specifically at the NTRA, is to bridge the gap between perception and reality – between the perception that declining live attendance means a dying industry and the reality that through progressive industry dynamics, we are adapting reasonably well to an increasingly Internet-based commercial and communications environment.   This is a challenge that must be addressed if we are ever to convince even our own industry’s insiders, much less the broader sports entertainment world, that horse racing is rising to meet the challenges of this new century.

The mission of the NTRA is and has always been to help bridge this gap, to coalesce the human and financial resources necessary to establish Thoroughbred racing as a major sport and entertainment option in the U.S. After 10 years of effort, we still have a long way to go before our goals are reached, but it is important to realize that in spite of a vengeful economy and a few self-inflicted wounds, we as an industry have made progress and the public still loves our game.

How do we bridge this gap between perception and reality - between local impact and national significance? Let me hear from you.

A Vote Cast For Zenyatta

aspradling — Mon, 01 Nov 2010 17:50:00 GMT

At last, it’s here. After months of anticipation, it all comes down to one day. The ads are about to run their course. The pundits and prognosticators have all had their say. The people have engaged in ways that no one could have imagined just a few short years ago. The polls have been all over the place. The arguments and rhetoric have been heated and at times very personal. The media has given the events of the day unprecedented coverage. Finally, our collective date with destiny has arrived.

I am not talking about Election Day 2010 – a day which, like the finish line for a tiring frontrunner, cannot come fast enough. I don’t know about you but one more negative political ad and my head may explode.

I am talking about the amazing race mare, Zenyatta, and her quest for perfection in the Breeders’ Cup later this week.   In case you have been living under a glacier in Antarctica for the past few weeks, at 6:45 p.m. this Saturday, November 6, at the Breeders’ Cup in Louisville, Kentucky, 14 of the best horses currently in training will be going to the post in the 27th running of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. With all due respect to the 13 other contestants, the focus of just about everyone’s attention at this year’s running of the BC Classic will be the lone female in the field.

Zenyatta, the fabulous 6-year-old race mare from California, could become only the second horse in history to win the Classic in back-to-back years. Eight others have attempted this herculean feat but only Tiznow has done it. Even more amazingly, if she wins, she will finish her career with an unprecedented 20 wins and no defeats. And that elusive Eclipse Award for Horse of the Year? It’s hers hands down if she wins.

To truly put this race in perspective, though, you have to consider all the many factors that combine to make this Saturday’s BC Classic a once in a lifetime event.

First, consider the stage – historic Churchill Downs, a highly competitive Breeders’ Cup Classic field, and an international television audience watching live on ESPN. Certainly in the United States and arguably around the globe, there is no better venue for a great horse race than Churchill Downs. In addition to being the home of Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs has hosted virtually all of the largest and many of the most memorable Breeders’ Cup events in the Cup’s 27 year history. This weekend’s two-day extravaganza promises to be yet another record-setter. If Zenyatta is going to convince the world of her greatness, this is the best place to do it.

And since the Classic is the biggest race in America for older horses, this is definitely the race to win. The 14 horse field that she will face may be one of the best ever to contest the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Any one of a number of horses has a legitimate shot at taking home the trophy, including Quality Road, Blame and Lookin At Lucky. They all will give Zenyatta the race of her life. It will take her best effort ever to get to the wire ahead of this deep, talented field.

Keep in mind that no matter what happens on Saturday, this will be last race of Zenyatta’s long and glorious career. Truth is, Zenyatta’s connections did not have to bring her back for this year’s campaign. Owners Jerry and Ann Moss, trainer John Shirreffs, racing manager Dotty Ingordo and Jockey Mike Smith could have ended her career after last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic victory and no one would have questioned that decision. But they kept her sharp through the end of 2009 and after carefully considering her best interests, they decided to keep her in training in 2010. It was a huge sporting gesture.

Finally, everything will be on the line for Zenyatta on Saturday. Not only would this be a second consecutive Classic victory, a perfect 20 win career, and an undisputed claim on Horse of the Year honors, but also a win this Saturday should finally silence her detractors.

A career as long and distinguished as Zenyatta’s cannot be made or lost in one race. She is a champion no matter what happens. But on this stage, against this field, at this point in her career and with so much on the line, a win this Saturday would put Zenyatta on the short list of all time greats - right up there with the likes of Secretariat and Man o’ War.

Make your plans now to watch this Saturday’s ESPN broadcast, or better yet, attend the Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs in person to witness what promises to be history in the making. I wasn’t alive in the early 1900’s when Man o’ War went 20 for 21. I was too young and unaware to see Secretariat capture the Triple Crown in 1973.   There is no way I’m going to miss Zenyatta’s bid for racing immortality.

How about you? Where will you be watching on Saturday? What will a Zenyatta victory mean to you?   Let me hear from you.

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