Rick Dutrow doesn’t mince words.

“I think that it’s our race to lose,” Dutrow said. “I think that he is the best horse in the race and I think if he breaks with the field, he’ll win the race.”

He also is right. I’m rooting for Big Brown to pull into Belmont with a shot at a Triple Crown and immortality. Still, there are a couple in here who have a remote shot at upsetting if Big Brown is off his game. At the least, this trio of 30-1 shots should be considered in the exotics.

My younger colleague Melissa boldly picks Icabad Crane on top. This is an improving colt with a win over the racetrack in the Tesio. He caught Mint Lane at the wire, and Mint Lane returned to run second in the Peter Pan to Casino Drive, the very large and talented colt in from Japan and aiming for the Belmont Stakes.

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The fact that Big Brown will break from post 20 doesn’t change my perception of his chances in the Derby. Richard Dutrow Jr. is putting his colt out there for all to see. No excuses now; he can’t get pinched between horses coming out of the gate, and chances are quite good that he won’t get touched at all with the speedy Gayego, who breaks just inside, figuring to go quickly forward rather than sideways.

Sure, he’ll have some speed breaking to the inside in Gayego, Bob Black Jack, Cowboy Cal and Recapturetheglory. But I don’t know that there are any War Emblems in there (and their owners certainly hope not); and indeed, Randy Moss’s pace figures suggest that Big Brown may have his way with those horses early. And even if he doesn’t quite get the lead (because, we’re told, he doesn’t have to), he figures to have a comfortable spot behind horses that I don’t believe will go the distance. I think Big Brown can go the route — he has the coolest pedigree in the field with his inbreeding to the classic sires Damascus and Round Table, and enough chefs-de-race to cook for the entire I.E.A.H. contingent. Read More...