The Racing Hub : Adriano

Top 7 Who Won't Win the Derby

cdawahare — Fri, 02 May 2008 17:22:00 GMT

By Patrick Patten, NYTimes.com

There were 38,191 North American foals born in 2005 (hat tip to the Jockey Club), and only 20 will be allowed in the gate in a little over a week. That is, one-twentieth of one percent get into the gate, and yet I am about to tell you that Recapturetheglory, winner of the grade II Illinois Derby is a complete toss. That’s because I’m going to give you my Top 7 Who Won’t Win the Derby list.

Most writers that cover the Derby will give you their top 10, or top 15, or just be extremely lazy and give you every horse in the gate and maybe even a stable pony or two and after the two minutes is over they’ll say, “I told you.” Well, I want to be different, and seeing this is a short-term gig, I can afford to be wrong. I’m going to give you 7 horses that won’t win the Derby; maybe they’ll come close, but no Virginia, there is no Derby winner here.

Adriano Winner of the grade II Lane’s End at Keeneland and confirmed mount for Edgar Prado has only run well on synthetic tracks or the turf. I won’t even hold his lone try on the dirt in the Fountain of Youth against him, where he finished ninth. Graham Motion, his trainer, told me everything I needed to hear after the Lane’s End, “I think we all agree he’s probably more of a turf horse.” And, if you didn’t know, the Derby is held on conventional dirt.

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Don't Get Burned - Pick Pyro

cdawahare — Thu, 01 May 2008 20:30:00 GMT

Courtesy of The New York Times

Dean Keppler, author of Betting the Kentucky Derby: How to Wager and Win on America’s Biggest Horse Race from DRF Press, discussed his approach to betting the Derby earlier this week. Now with the post positions set, he gives us his picks:

1) PYRO
2) ADRIANO
3) Z FORTUNE

For his reasoning and more on how to bet the race,
9-PYRO (6/1) Steve Asmussen’s Pulpit colt was dreadful in his first experience on Keeneland’s Polytrack a little over three weeks ago. He took a trouncing from his 11 other rivals and ran up the track in the Blue Grass at even money. He smoldered a lot of public money that miserable afternoon (including blowing up a pick-four ticket from yours truly) and never lifted a hoof. I’m gambling he makes a complete form reversal Saturday returning to the main dirt track and finally runs back to his impressive Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Belmont Park Champagne Beyer speed figures (105 and 100 respectively) from last year. His two Derby preps in Louisiana before his Blue Grass debacle were visually impressive, and I’m confident he will be rallying strongly down the long Churchill stretch, showing his traditional push-button acceleration under the confident handling of Sean Bridgmohan.

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Blinker's Off - Wednesday, April 30

cdawahare — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 21:43:00 GMT

From Railbird -

Graham Motion, a great guy but not exactly a human quote machine, has one good line this week for reporters about Adriano and he's sticking to it: "I must be the only trainer in the world with an A.P. Indy that can't run on dirt."...

Speaking of one-liners, Henny Youngman used to have a good one about racing. "I once bet on a horse that was so slow, I saw him turn around and say to the jockey, 'Whaddya hittin' me for, there's nobody behind us."

Todd Pletcher missed the trainer's dinner Tuesday night with either strep throat or a flu bug, depending on who you talk to. He arrived at his Churchill Downs barn this morning, however, looking razor sharp as always, moments after Monba and Cowboy Cal danced off the van from Keeneland and into the barn. Continue Reading...