Spotting a Derby Winner

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

Number Six — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 03:19:13 GMT

One of the ultimate set-up races had to be the Santa Anita Derby of 1998. If you can find the video of that race you can see Desourmeax realizing that although he could make the finish close, he will probably not catch Indian Charlie. So he lets Real Quiet relax and coasts to a second place finish. We all know what happened after that.

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

Carm — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 03:26:54 GMT

Thank you for those replays. I usually only get to see them at the Derby Museum. I've been to 40 derbys.

My favorite horse was Foolish Pleasure who I bet in the 75' Derby. My biggest wins were Ferdinand and Sea Hero; not only did I like the way they came up to their races, but you had to believe the Good Lord was going to make MacMiller and Charlie Whittingham finally win a derby for all the good they had done for racing. Right now, Friesan Fire has impressed me the most; and after losing Eight Belles last year, you know Larry jones is going to win the Derby.

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

Jamie — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 16:09:06 GMT

TerriV- It shouldn't matter what sex the horse is going into the Derby. What happened to Eight Belles was a freak accident, born of her cross-breeding to Unbridled's Song; it had nothing to do with her gender.

I would love to see Stardom Bound in the Derby. But I do think it would be in her best interest to have one race with the boys before so. The past 2 female winners did so before they won the Derby.

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

Jamie — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 16:04:03 GMT

I liked the points in this article, though I still have a hard time seeing the perfect "set ups" you mention. I do agree that a rested horse, one that is not pushed to its limits, will be fresher and perhaps more sharp for the big dance.

I think you did succeed in relieving some of the pressure in my head for these final prep races before the Derby. Sometimes we forget the lead-up isn't all about winning, though it certainly helps the horses make it into those Derby gates.

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

bowlofflowers — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 15:33:54 GMT

Thank you for the Video clips. I still think Funny Cide's JGCup one of the best races I got to see(on TV). To see 2 horses pass him on either side and then he came charging through between them to win showed tremendous heart and stamina

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

Gary E — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 17:29:49 GMT

Not sure what happened on my other

post. The "Gary E" that was not about Woodchopper isn't mine???

My other post (summed up) is that

Giacomo had worked 7 furlongs at the SAME track on the SAME day as

had Wilko (I think). Wilko went off at around 12 to 1. Giacomo went a full 3 seconds faster in his prep work !!!

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

stardust — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 15:39:34 GMT

OK I hit the last three Derby exacta's. I think this one will be either Chocolate Candy OR Stardom Bound. I may be nuts but everyone told me I was nuts last year too. IF Stardom Bound is in the Derby, something tells me she is going to win it from any post. :) We shall see. I like OF and FF but something there is bugging me. I don't know what it is. I hope for a safe trip for all of them.

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

Gary E — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 15:14:31 GMT

I left one other one out. If you can find the replay of the Pleasant

Colony Derby, watch on the far outside right at the end. Woodchopper is FLYING and would have won the race if he had just a little more luck. I think he worked a mile in a great time before the race. Cost me some high

odds,plus I had to listen to Johnny Campo's big mouth about

His horse winning. Woodchopper was

a bleeder and didnt do much after

that cause of some medication restrictions...

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

Gary E — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 15:02:27 GMT

What NOBODY seems to ever bring up

about Giacomo is that another horse

in that Derby (Welco ??) was bet down to 10 or 12 to 1 for that race.

Giacomo had worked 7 furlongs at the SAME track on the SAME day by a full 3 seconds faster than the other horse. That's worth noting.

I can't help that Ken Rudolph touted it...Not bacause of the work!

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

Matthew W — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 05:16:26 GMT

My brother had a Derby system....he reasoned that most Derby winners had raced well at 1 mi or longer as a 2yo in Gr 1 competition--not necessarily winning but at least in the hunt v the big boys---The 1992 Champaigne had me locked in to Sea Hero as a horse of value to me---living in Oregon at the time, where betting was limited to in-state pools, Eastern based horses got less respect--he was 12-1 at Churchill but I got 31-1 in Salem Oregon---sure he was inconsistent but I just figured his Champagne was legit cuz it was so strong---I was right, and I owed that one to my bro--I've made a bit of $ on The Derby over the years---this year Pioneerof The Nile looks great--still, it's a huge question if he can dirt first time---This is some good looking horse......

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

TerriV — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 22:05:01 GMT

After Eight Belles broke down there was all the usual commentary about how a filly shouldn't run with the boys. Coming up this year we have a filly who could run with the boys (and maybe even beat them!) This is a subject that causes a lot of personal conflict for me. I loved Eight Belles and believe that many of the fillies are equally as strong as the colts but racing doesn't need another disaster. I would love to hear some opinions (foresight rather than hindsight) about Stardom Bound and whether she should run in the derby.

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

m palmer — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 00:27:40 GMT

Mayor Marv is not considered a member of Bob Baffert’s first string. His recent victory in the Turf Paradise Derby is not considered significant as no winner of this derby has ever been a factor in the Triple Crown races. The 2005 winner General John B did occupy the runner slot in the Santa Anita derby of the same year. I have reviewed the pedigree profile of Mayor Marv and the facts indicate that he is big derby sleeper.

His sire Distorted Humor of Funny Cide fame needs no introduction. He is one of the five grandsons of Mr. Prospector that has sired a derby winner. Mayor Marv’s dam Miss Wineshine was sired by Wolf Power a grandson the great Round Table. It is not very often that Wolf Power (1978) appears as a broodmare sire. My research has uncovered two horses of significance whose dams were sires by Wolf Power. They are Steppenwolfer

the third place finisher in the 2006 Barbaro derby and multi-millionaire and multipleG1 winner Milwaukee Brew. Mayor Marv’s second and third dams reflect significantly more classic pedigree than those of Steppenwolfer and Milwaukee Brew. His second dam was sired by Sunrise Flight who was broodmare sire of 1981 derby winner Pleasant Colony. His third dam was sired Prince John whose sons’ Stage Door Johnny and Speak John were broodmare sired of 1994 & 1985 derby winners Go For Gin and Spend A Buck.

Mayor Marv recorded an easy 1:36.90 for the mile in the Turf Paradise Derby. He found a lot extra in the final sixteen and appeared to get stronger as he galloped out. His 1:36 clocking is right in line with the average of the last 10 derby miles. This horse has enough pace to be forwardly place and there is enough stamina in his pedigree to carry his speed over 10 furlongs. These are the type of horses that fly under the radar and accumulate just enough graded earnings to shock punter on derby day.

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

zarvona — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 00:12:01 GMT

yep I remember "Bellamy Road's Wood Memorial run! And "Racecar Rhapsody" last year! Just goes to show one prep doesn't mean Heaven's Derby is yours for the taking. And I remember "Nolan's Cat" a non-maiden surrendering

1 furlong plus and finishing 3rd!! with the most amazing close, kind of like "Curlin"'s Derby Run! 4th was he???

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

Bob — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 18:17:12 GMT

How can you not mention Bellamy Road's prep in the 2005 Wood???

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

Keith — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 17:57:40 GMT

Excellent article with video clips and even better commentary. Seeing some of the ol'jocks was a walk down memory lane compared to today.

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

Mark Sannutti — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 17:33:53 GMT

The Derby is certainly no easy race to pick. I have done better picking the races over the last few years than when I first started back in 2000. 2005 was a throwout year. A lot of crazy things happened in the race and just have to scratch your head on that one. I have picked the 1-2 finishers the last two years. Looking at the Rags numbers has certainly helped. Last year, Big Brown and Eight Belles had the best numbers and were the fastest horses, point blank, looking back.

Hard Spun was a very unlucky 2nd in 2007. How lucky was Street Sense to get a dream trip on the rail? He is probably the most underrated horse ever in my opinion. That horse ran fast fractions and never quit. His 2nd in the BC Classic was overshadowed by Curlin. Look how fast the fractions were and he still beat everyone but him. Its ashame he didn't run at 4 and show his true ability. He was as good as Curlin and would have been nice to see those two run against each other multiple times. He and Curlin would have crushed Big Brown had they met in the same year.

Coming from the Philly area as well, we have been blessed with some great horses over the last 5 years.

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

Becky Johnston — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 04:47:32 GMT

I think the Miami Herald and the reporter who made up that false report paid handsomely for that mistake, as well they should have.

As to what my point was in this blog. Just don't forget the also rans.

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

Vespone — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 02:15:23 GMT

Elaine - don't blame Jose Santos for the buzzer controversy, he wasn't carrying one. Blame the reporter who tried to make a story when there wasn't one. See for example: www.bloodhorse.com/.../churchill-stewards-santos-carried-only-whip-in-derby-victory

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

Elaine — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 01:58:15 GMT

O.K...in defense of myself, I remember talking to an excellent local handicapper here in my town who attended Giacomo's Derby win.

He told a group of us how bizarre the win was because there was just a huge silence when that horse (20 horse field not withstanding) was announced as winner and everyone present said,"Giacomo?? Who's he?" I'm just relating that info.

Interesting that hardly anyone chimed in on Barbaro's bandwagon.

Hands down the most amazing physical athlete (equine) was John Henry with his tremendous stride length. O.K., I have to admit, watching Barbaro's amazing length win gave me a flashback to Secretariat's win. But Eight Belle's breakdown harkened back to the days of Ruffian. The press on Eight Belles prior to the race was similar to Ruffian's. Phenomenal fillies lost too soon but both were set apart from their peers in that both Ruffian and Eight Belles took training seriously and were out there to win. Amazing.

What a match race there must be daily in horse heaven.

Any jockey out there who has the Derby resulting in a buzzer controversy gives thoroughbred racing yet another black eye so I'm always disappointed there.

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

ofelia — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 01:16:35 GMT

The preps say alot about maturity, preparation and heart. I picked Smarty, Barbaro, Street Sense and Big Brown for the unquestionable talent and overwhelming heart to win they displayed. Barbaro's Florida Derby separated the men from the boys and I believe, that had he stayed sound, he would have been a triple crown horse. Street Sense displayed sheer guts everytime he ran and I think the jockey lost the Preakness for him.

As for who is running this year, the foreign horses might have some trouble adjusting here and I have not seen any clear talent, yet from our horses. I'll watch the Florida Derby, Blue Grass, Tampa Derby, santa anita, etc.

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

helsbelles — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 22:52:25 GMT

wow... I have been wondering about that horse Elysium Fields. Honestly, I could not remember his name! it was dogging me. I only remember his meltdown in the Florida D 08 after every handicapper gave him out to win. Isn't that something! Stay tuned folks, all your questions will be answered on the internet. So happy he is back, and hopefully mature and ready to rock.

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

Vespone — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 18:35:03 GMT

Z - Great timing on this question. Elysium Fields, now in the barn of Neil Drysdale, won an allowance race at Santa Anita on February 19, and looked pretty good doing it. It was a mile and a sixteenth race.

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

Sat, 21 Feb 2009 18:16:10 GMT

What ever happened to Elysium Fields?

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

belles forever — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 15:14:19 GMT

k man..i too am from philly area and yes we are truly blessed with having great horses with ties to us..how about it?? looks to be another great racing season for us..

re: Spotting a Derby Winner

Wilde Cheri — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 15:10:22 GMT

Yes, I too love those Philly area horses, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex and even Rockport Harbor of the same year although he couldn't come back from his foot injury even though he was nominated for the Derby, Barbaro, Hard Spun, Round Pond and Eight Belles to name a few. We'll never forget the excitement of Smarty's run for the Triple Crown.