The Derby Road Most Traveled

re: The Derby Road Most Traveled

BigDawg — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 10:28:22 GMT

Excellent piece and great work Becky! Brian, Mr (not Ms) Hot Stuff will get in now that Terrain is out but with a 3rd in both the Sham and SAD you can pay off the mortgage if he wins. Giacamo will look like chalk in comparison.

re: The Derby Road Most Traveled

Joel W — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 02:57:29 GMT

Interesting read. It's possible for the winner to come from any of the preps. What I take from this is to focus on the top 2 finishers in the major preps and potentially throw out the rest unless there are extenuating circumstances.

Also, I loved seeing the Risen Star win over 49er. Man Risen Star was a great horse. I feel he is underappreciated. I'll never forget his crushing Belmont win. Gave me visions of his father Secretariat.

re: The Derby Road Most Traveled

helsbelles — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 18:44:35 GMT

Another wonderful article. Brings back good and bad memories. You mention Prairie Bayou, which was my very first taste of racing tragedy, one horse died in the Preakness, followed two weeks later by Prairie Bayou in the Belmont. Looking forward to your article sharing your memories of Alysheba.

re: The Derby Road Most Traveled

John T — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 01:55:02 GMT

Great stats Becky''You always give us something important to think about.

re: The Derby Road Most Traveled

TerriV — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 17:30:41 GMT

I just want to say how much I enjoy these articles with the video inserted. It really brings home the written words and is an emotional walk down memory lane. I could hardly bear to watch Barbaro - God! he was magnificient.

re: The Derby Road Most Traveled

Old Timer — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 14:55:15 GMT

I just want to say that here's some breaking news for you statistics folks. I'm not saying the stats are meaningless, however this year is not the same as the last 25 or whatever. That's why they call it horse racing. Every race is a new event. As soon as you show such and such has never happened, BAM, it happens. Never say never! Can you say Big Brown? Can you say Barbaro? That's what makes this great game so much fun. The first Saturday in May is the greatest day of the year. Good luck to all!

re: The Derby Road Most Traveled

Householder — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 01:50:06 GMT

Makes me feel really good about this year's Santa Anita Derby. I think the last Triple Crown winner also won this event.

re: The Derby Road Most Traveled

GunBow — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 23:51:43 GMT

Thanks. I have been working on similar stats and posted them last week on Steve Haskin's blog. Extending it another 9 years, 28 of the last 34 Kentucky Derby winners either won or ran 2nd in their final prep, 3 ran 3rd, and 3 4th in that final prep. Horses that come into the Derby off terrible performance (worse than 4th) are virtual throw-outs for the Derby win. The same is true for picking Derby runners-up. However, as you point out, a couple of Derby 3rd place runners finished worse than 4th in their final prep (Dennis of Cork 5th, Wild Gale).

re: The Derby Road Most Traveled

Brian — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 23:23:39 GMT

Excellent piece!. Yet another demonstration of why the current method of selecting the field penalizes the best horses suited to win the Derby. Case in point: Ms. Hot Stuff. If he gets in, he wins. But he probably won't. Instead we get horses with mile pedigrees that stretched it out for an extra eighth, or good two year olds that nurse their way into the field. The Kentucky Derby is no longer the best test of 3-year-old classic horses. The Travers is.

re: The Derby Road Most Traveled

Travis L — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 19:06:13 GMT

Anyone have anytime to come up with some field size statistics on how it affects derby winners. For example (4 out of the last 7 Derby winners came out of fields of 10 or more horses in their final prep)I made that up but it sure would be interesting to see figs on this. Maybe that's why Cali horses finish so poorly lately, they never get a chance to run in 10+ horse fields until it's to late on Derby Day.