R-E-S-P-E-C-T

re: R-E-S-P-E-C-T

Ann in Lexington — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 23:49:01 GMT

Beg pardon. Mixed up my mares. PotN's dam won a 7f stakes at Churchill; it was Chocolate Candy's dam who won the 2-turn stake at SA. But PotN's dam did win an 8f+ race according to APR.

CC's dam, by the way, was by Seattle Slew out of an Alydar-sired half-sister to Affirmed. Can't get a much better distance ped than that.

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Ann in Lexington — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 23:34:25 GMT

Mike, what do you base your opinion about PotN's distance limitations? His sire won the Belmont, his damsire won the Santa Anita H, and his dam won a 2-turn stakes at Santa Anita. He is much better bred for the 10f distance than some of the east coast horses, who are by miler sires without any recent 2-turn winners in the family. They have already outrun their pedigrees, while PotN is just coming into a distance where he should excel.

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da3hoss — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 19:23:08 GMT

Whatever...how can you say that about Dunkirk? He's one of only 2 horses in this Derby with a 2, or any number, in the "Professional" in his DI...which horses in his pedigree were not bred for distance or longevity? Unbridled? Secretariat? AP Indy? Seattle Slew? Alydar? Caro? Weekend Surprise with 31 starts? Secret Status with 19 starts? Luckey Spell with 69 starts?

Probably you mean Unbridled's Song, who at least raced once as a 4 year-old (and won), but seems to pass on leg problems, a lot like Unbridled may have despite his 24 starts...but what about Honest Man, Awesome Ashley, Even the Score, Unbridled Elaine, Classify, One Caroline, Octave and many other Unbridled's Song runners including 4, 5, 6 year olds...who have way more than "one big race"...maybe it's the inbreeding as opposed to one horse in a pedigree that creates a problem.

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steve s — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 20:21:34 GMT

Desert party will not be in top four.an easy throw out.

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Whatever — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 15:51:19 GMT

Wonder if POTN is capable of running on real dirt. I've knocked Dunkirk so much because of his sire, but if he makes it (still 2 weeks)then this may be the race of his life before he retires. I don't see him racing through this entire year, he's not bred for that, he's bred for that one great race before retirement.

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the_wiz — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 14:56:15 GMT

Thanks for the tip nay nay. I've already got those combinations locked up from futures pool 2 and 3 exactas at returns we won't see on Derby Day. Of course I have some other combinations as well. I'm pretty well set except for my tri and super bets. If Quality Road doesn't win I have some high return saver exactas from the same pools at a very minimal price. Let's fast forward to May 2nd and get on with the race.

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Ibeaux — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 14:36:51 GMT

I just don't see it with Pioneerof the Nile. To me, the horse is still too unprofessional to win the Derby-- look how rank he was in the Santa Anita Derby. In addition, he just isn't fast enough. I see him as a less talented Colonel John.

I'll put I Want Revenge on top, and play GQ and Regal Ransom as longshots as well. Quality Road and Dunkirk will get strong consideration on my tickets as well-- QR's performances speak for themselves, and Dunkirk made an amazing move against the speed bias and the bias favoring the inside horse at 1 & 1/8 at GP. In all likelihood, he needs more seasoning, but you can't ignore him on Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets. Friesan Fire rounds out the set of win contenders.

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Greg J. — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 14:28:47 GMT

Mike,

Spot on about "Friesan Fire"...

"Friesan Fire" is my SURE top pick.

The rest depends on post and track conditions(I hope it rains for a week straight, lol)

2."General Quarters"

3."Chocolate Candy"

Enough Said.....

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Mary Lucas — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 13:46:09 GMT

I like the story behind General Quarters and am rooting for him in the KY Derby!

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draynay — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 03:41:37 GMT

I will save all of you some time. Place Quality Road on top and place Musket Man, Dunkirk, Desert Party, Mr. Hot Stuff and Chocolate Candy on the bottom of your tickets and call it a day.

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gw_bushwacker — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 01:31:53 GMT

LMAO @ ColetteMarie,

You wouldn't put your money at such risk as betting on a horse? Instead you buy one and risk it that way? A $2 bet is much easier to lose than buying a horse who costs you thousands b4 he or she hits the track or worse yet never even makes it to racing. Then if they make it to a race and turn out to be a bum on the track you are out everything you put into it and still stuck with the money sucker. I call that high risk. That's a quicker way to lose money than some illegal ponzie scheme.

As for this blog and the question at hand for General Quarters to get some respect as a Derby contender he would have had to learn to run faster and do it on dirt. To this date he's just not fast enough to be taken as a serious threat. On top of that he hasn't beaten any of the better 3 yr olds this year. General Quarters isn't the one who'll be wearing the blanket of roses on May 2nd.

Pioneer Of The Nile just gained some respect when the top jock in the country chose him over Dunkirk. If it were the other way around he may have gone off at 15-1 on derby day. Now he'll be one of the top 5 choices or better.

I certainly won't be betting any money on General Quarters to win, that's not going to happen. As for Pioneer Of The Nile he's not on the top of my list either but may warrant a saver bet.

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amph44 — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 23:49:24 GMT

Triple crown contender are u kidding me! Jockeys play a huge role in the KD so scrath IWR. Prado will be on Dunkirk aka a huge bonus. Gomez is a good jockey but what is his best finish in the big dance 9th lol! Good luck with POTN he wont even see the board.

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Julie L. — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 23:33:34 GMT

No horse is a bum and to the person who said that Anti-Draynay sounds like Draynay I think you may be right. As for my pick well I have to stay with Pioneerof theNile, I started liking him at 2 and have liked his performances as a 3 year old. Still like I Want Revenge and have been thinking that possible upsets could be General Quarters or Musket Man. I think a few people are not giving Musket Man a fair shot and he may sneak by everyone. That's the joy (or pain) of horse racing.

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rowner — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 18:31:12 GMT

I saw someone above said that PON was a bum and that was why gomez wasn't riding him. I think I just saw that gomez decided to go with PON over Dunkirk so what do you Say Now!!!!!

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Shimatoree — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 15:37:46 GMT

POTN is a galloper and in a race like the Kentucky Derby that is a disadvantage. plus he does not have a good name !

FF is a good horse- but has imperfect front legs.

QR is a good horse but can he stay 1 1/4 miles.

Sq Eddie ran a big race and will be a factor.

GQ appears to be horse of destinty and barring bad luck should win

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EMD — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 14:54:37 GMT

Horses are never bums. Trainers ARE! Jeff Mullins get a seven day suspension beginning the day AFTER Derby. How convenient!

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Old Timer — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 12:52:57 GMT

Good article. It does seem that these two do not get as much respect as the others. Pioneer of the Nile, the knock seems to be that he has not run on dirt. Well, his trainer is well versed in winning this race and his sire, Empire Maker, ran pretty well on dirt. Plus he has already beat many of the others (IWR; Papa Clem; etc.) I'd say he gets no respect if he is not the first or second choice at post time.

General Quarters perhaps is not more highly regarded due to running at lower levels until recently. Plus some might say that this year's Blue Grass was weak. However you must admit the horse has run on many different tracks and given a good account of himself. Plus check out the workouts he had at Churchill Downs right before the Blue Grass. He evidently likes CD a lot. If he's for real, he could make for some nice numbers in the exacta and trifecta.

In 13 days we'll find out who deserves the respect!

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riserun stable — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 11:49:03 GMT

POTN - this horse has basically done nothing wrong. I don't trust synthetic Beyers so I'm not too concerned that he hasn't cracked 100. He is in the hands of one of the absolute best trainers when it comes to the Derby. To totally dismiss this horse for any reason could be foolhardy.

DUNKIRK - may end up being the most talented of the entire group. I do, however, have a big concern that he did not race as a 2 yr. old. That and the fact that 3 lifetime races do not bode well for the Derby winner profile could lead to possible underlay status May 2nd.

FRIESAN FIRE - has steadily improved his last 3 races. Don't necessarily like the 7 week layoff or the fact that he has never run beyond 1 1/16 miles. But don't dismiss Larry Jones' ability to prepare a horse and this one is bred to absolutely love 1 1/4 miles.

I WANT REVENGE - if his performance in the Wood didn't impress you then you need to take up another sport. WOW! Left at the gate, blocked in mid-stretch and looking like there was no way to win. Talk about a turn of foot - he found several more gears and crushed a so-so group. But to me the most important thing here was he showed he was a fighter. He bulled his way through, accelerated, and won easily. Experience like that will be a definite asset on Derby day.

QUALITY ROAD - his class showed in the FLA Derby. He was hooked at the top of the stretch, dug it and gutted out the win. Invaluable experience.

I believe the Derby winner will come from one of these horses. Although I am leaning towards Friesan Fire I will not make my top selection until I see how they all work at CD. Once I make my top pick I will be keying that horse in all 4 slots of the Superfecta.

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ColetteMarie — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 03:16:14 GMT

I agree with you 100%, Karen2. I hate when horses are discribed as "bums" or other such names when they don't win. Like you, I am a huge racing fan. I watch TVG every day & develop favorites I like to keep track of thru out their careers. I have never bet on a race in my life. I watch, too, when I don't know a single thing about the horses running, except that I love to watch them race.

I am a registered nurse & work nights. So, during the day as I sleep, I keep the TV on & it's always on TVG. All race horses, fast or slow are a thing of beauty to watch, in my opinion. I also believe that betting on a race would detract from the enjoyment of watching it. God knows I work too hard to put my money at such risk. I have owned horses for more than 25 yrs, including a 5 yr. old racehorse who retired from racing last May. He is magnificent to watch running in his paddock. The very last word that would ever come to mind to describe him is a "bum". I have met many human "bums" in my life, but never met any horse "bums".

I would absolutely love to see General Quarters win the Derby. Besides loving the horse, I'd love for Mr. McCarthy to win it after 50 yrs. of being in the game. He has certainly paid his dues.

ColetteMarie

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Mike — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 01:10:31 GMT

easyroad, POTN = Colonel John imo. Something tells me GQ will be no threat to win either. I agree on QR and FF but I think you are underestimating DK's chances as he should have a little more air this time. I think with DK it will all come down to if traffic compromises him or not. If he gets a clean trip he will be a factor at the end imo.

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Curlin (Jay) — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 00:20:07 GMT

Square Eddie ran a great race today, in a losing cause. But coming off of a long layoff like that, wow, what a move around the final turn. It can only help (tightener) that he comes back in 2 weeks for the big one. Still my choice.

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eazyroad — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 23:41:31 GMT

Anti Dray - Dunkirk has not won a stakes race much less a graded stakes race. QR is proving he has matured as well as Friesan Fire who has won 3 in a row all graded races. POTN if he takes to the dirt, will be a factor as well as GQ. When it is all said and done, I think the westcoast horse will show they are better this year.

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Dale — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 23:24:45 GMT

Here's my two sense:

Dunkirk: Overrated. He hasn't beaten anyone of class. I think he will be outclassed in the derby.

FF: Too long of a break and the horse hasn't run this length.

QR: He's got some tact, but again, the best he's beat is dunkirk....

IWR: Should hit the board, but shipped east because he couldn't get a win against the competitors of the west.... that should tell you something.

GQ: Great story, good horse, im not sure what to think of him yet.

POTN: Granted he is on synthetic, but look what everyone (he has beat) has done when they have shipped to dirt! in his last couple of races he has TOYED with his opponents, he hasn't really had to try. IMO could be a crown contender.

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amph44 — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 22:30:27 GMT

Karen the only two stars at the show are QR and Desert party the rest are allowance stars

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Mike — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 22:06:12 GMT

FF is the only real push button horse in the race besides maybe DK who may get compromised by traffic considering it appears the early fractions will be average at best this year. I look for QR to have the lead entering the final turn and for FF to blow past him going down the stretch. FF reminds me a little bit of Smarty Jones with his push button final moves. QR is no BB imo.