When the hammer fell following hip #568 at yesterday's Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July yearling sale, it marked the closing of the first major yearling auction in 2008.

Many breeders were holding their breaths throughout the last couple of weeks, knowing that the July sale is the first test of the strength of the yearling market. Unfortunately, the final numbers don't hold much optimism.  While there was still enthusiasm for stand-out colts and fillies, the overall figures were off from last year, including increased RNAs and decreased gross, average, and median prices (more details here). 

Considering the long-term effects of the Thoroughbred auction market, my thoughts eventually turned to my own foals. Early last week, I vanned my yearling colt (pedigree) over to a sales prep facility to get him ready for the Keeneland September sale. What an ordeal that was.

I generally introduce my foals to the trailer while they're weanlings, get them used to loading and unloading, and then stop once they're comfortable with the routine. They remember the lessons when I go to load them next -- whether it's a few months or a year later -- and they don't bat an eyelash. This year, my Honour and Glory (SRO) colt decided to be the exception. It surprised me; he's always easy to handle and has good ground manners. It took a good 45 minutes to get him loaded this time, though -- and then, only after he'd reared up and flipped over (which is when I introduced him to the twitch!). Once we arrived at the facility, he was back to his mild-mannered self, fortunately.

The colt will go through 60 to 70 days of "prep," during which time he'll build some muscle with frequent walks, avoid the coat-bleaching sun by being stalled during the late morning and early afternoon, and learn to stand still in a conformation pose. I've prepped my own foals before but am happy to turn over the job this year to a specialist -- and with only one yearling to sell, I know he'll be better represented by being in the barn of a consignor.

I was pleased to see that the Honour and Glory offerings (2 colts) at Fasig-Tipton sold for an average of $97,500. Broad Brush was represented by three foals (a colt and two fillies) as a broodmare sire; they sold for an average $76,000.  Honour and Glory beat the $92,298 overall sale average... Broad Brush was under but still respectable... and the two stallions both saw 100% sales (vs. the sale's 39% RNA rate).

For additional Fasig-Tipton coverage, check out the free Data Digest, or head over to the Hammer Time blog.

Young Mares

• Looking over the results of the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July yearling sale, it struck me that foals out of new broodmares were underperforming.
• The overall sale average was $92,298, and the median was $75,000. I looked at "birth order" figures and saw that the yearlings sold included birth orders from first to thirteenth, with one foal being the fifteenth offspring of its dam.  Mares represented by their first foals averaged only $76,057 with a median of $63,000, making them fourth-worst in both categories.

Young Sires

• First-year sires broke the average by about 3% ($95,026).
• The July sale has a special focus -- it emphasizes its New Sire Showcase. Perhaps buyers are willing to gamble on foals from unproven sires -- but not when they're also out of unproven mares.

To Name or Not (not related to the above, but interesting) 

• 34 foals sold (1.1%) were already named.  Of the RNAs, 17 (8.8%) were named. 
• Named foals averaged $75,364 (median $55,000), whereas unnamed foals averaged $94,314 (median $75,000). 
• Looking at it from another angle, the named foals' RNA percentage was actually lower than the auction average (33% vs. 39%), but their average price was nearly 19% lower than unnamed foals.

Yearling sales are a big deal.  If you want to gauge the strength of the industry, take a look at the yearling market.  (And if you're really into such things, you probably already subscribe to TBH MarketWatch...).  Each year, thousands of yearlings go through the ring (in 2008, we'll probably see more than 14,000 of them, with maybe 10,500 sold). 

For more detail, take a look at an 8-year summary of North American yearling sales, or look at yearling auction results by individual sale (click the "yearlings" tab to see sales results for 2007 and for 2008 year-to-date).

So, it's June.  The beginning of June, even.  The tail end of horses-in-training sales.  Why am I discussing yearlings?

Because those sales are already in the works.  Fasig-Tipton's July select session and Saratoga August sales are right around the corner.  The colossal Keeneland September yearling sale follows shortly thereafter.  Many of the sales, in fact, have entry deadlines long since passed. The sales companies are preparing catalog pages, double-checking consignment details, and preparing for barn after barn full of rambunctious yearlings.

And because I've got a colt going through the ring in September.  Over the next few months, I'll post regular updates on the whole process of going through a sale.  Many of you have done this before -- some of you do it every year -- and your comments are appreciated.  And for those of you who are new to Thoroughbred auctions, this is a great opportunity to ask questions of your fellow readers!

So, here's the start of my story:  I have a colt by Honour and Glory (on SRO) out of my Broad Brush mare Brush Back (her pedigree).  Here is the colt's five-cross pedigree and TrueNicks rating.  He's on the small side but well-conformed and attracts a good bit of attention.  Small, unfortunately, is generally a detractor for yearlings.  The colt has excellent ground manners.  We went through a spell when he reared up constantly; I was able to stop that behavior, fortunately, and he's now quite well behaved.  

The colt (he's unnamed... sales yearlings generally are not named prior to their sale) is pastured 22 hours a day and is stalled for morning and evening feedings and grooming.  I put him up overnight twice a month to familiarize him with being stalled for long periods, but otherwise, I want him to "be a horse" and run/graze/socialize as long as possible. Because of his time outdoors, he's got some sun-bleaching, another detractor when going through the ring.

I've decided to send the colt to Montessori Farm for sales prep and consignment.  Lots more on those details will come in future posts.  For now, suffice it to say that the colt's daily routine will change significantly starting mid-June (about 90 days out from the sale):  he'll see more stall time during the day to make his coat darker, he'll have a more formal exercise regimen to build some muscle, and he'll learn to walk and pose for viewings by potential bidders.

While this colt is my first foal out of Brush Back, she has had six previous foals, all of which were sold at the Keeneland September yearling auction.  Their yearling prices have ranged from $5,000 to $105,000.  One of them went on to sell for $600,000 as a 3-year-old.  The mare's progeny yearling average is about $40,000, with mostly mid-range stallions.  Honour and Glory's lifetime progeny yearling average is just under $60,000.  If this colt continues to develop nicely and the yearling market remains steady, he should beat those averages come September.

In occasional posts over the next three months, we'll look at decisions made along the way:  breeding choices, the multitude of expenses to get from breeding to newborn foal to yearling, the "sales prep" stage, and finally the colt's pre-auction showings and his trip through the ring.

Last week, I talked about a few of my favorite pedigrees in the Keeneland April sale of 2-year-olds in training. For anyone interested in that sale (or just fascinated by sire lists and anything data-related), The Blood-Horse is offering a free download of the Data Digest for this sale. 

In addition to top sires and broodmare sires, top consignors and breeders, and historical charts, the PDF has an article by pedigree analyst Alan Porter on sires with their first crop of 2-year-olds this year.

A free download -- just head to the BloodHorse.com home page and look under the "Auction News" banner.

Keeneland's April sale of 2-year-olds in training will start in about 10 days (previews on April 7, followed by sale dates April 8-9). While I'm still not in the market for racing stock, I'm always eager to see what's being offered. This year's catalog had some interesting pedigrees.

I dog-eared about a dozen hips to watch, and I'll take a look at a few of them today.  Since I tend to read the catalog from back to front, that's how I'll post my comments here.

• Hip #101 (view catalog page) is a bay colt by Seattle Fitz (ARG) out of a Pentelicus mare whose third dam is a half sister to In Reality, the standard-bearer of the Man o' War sire line. The sale colt's dam, Cometuseibella, is an interesting study in pedigree patterns, and using bloodstock that I like a whole lot.  She has the Rasmussen Factor to My Dear Girl, and her Pentelicus bloodlines bring in another cross to My Dear Girl's sire, Rough ‘n Tumble, via Dr. Fager, whose dam (Aspidistra) is also doubled in Pentelicus' pedigree.  Hip #101 is even more interesting, though, because of his sire. Seattle Fitz (on SRO) stands for a low fee at Buck Pond Farm and is a rare American source of Blenheim II via Cipayo (ARG).  This cross doesn't bring in any inbreeding (the most interesting doubled line being Swaps, 5S x 6D), but instead allows Seattle Fitz to serve as an outcross to the mare's inbreeding - a tried-and-true recipe for success.
• Hip #100 (view catalog page), a chestnut filly by Unbridled's Song (on SRO) out of the Regal Classic mare Classic Threat, is worth mention if only because her fourth dam is Claiborne's wonderful mare State, who's responsible for such fine runners and sires as Pulpit and Minardi and Tale of the Cat and Johannesburg and Teuflesberg. This branch of that family has been a steady source of catalog black type, and the filly's potential as an eventual broodmare prospect makes her a good choice even at a 2-year-old sale.
• Hip #92 (view catalog page), a chestnut colt by El Corredor (on SRO) out of the Carr de Naskra mare Big Fins, boasts second dam Cahooters, who produced Buddha, and a fourth dam who's a half sister to Damascus. I think inbreeding to Secretariat is highly underrated, and this colt's got Big Red 5x5, plus two more crosses to Bold Ruler, also 5x5.
• Hip #91 (view catalog page) is a dark bay or brown colt by Birdstone (on SRO) out of the Rakeen mare Bessie's Chips, and is exciting for two reasons.  He's by freshman sire Birdstone, who is by Grindstone, probably the most likely son of Unbridled to pass on both soundness and stamina. (I think Birdstone still has detractors just for daring to dash Smarty Jones' Triple Crown chances a few years back....)  But the reason this colt is likely to attract just a bit more attention than he's already deserving of is that his third dam is La Reine Rouge, the second dam of fan-favorite and Kentucky Derby champion Barbaro. This particular branch of the family hasn't done a whole lot in two generations, but I'm predicting that the introduction of Birdstone's blood will prove to be a stroke of genius.

In a recent poll, readers responded to  the question "Do you anticipate fewer mares bred in 2008 due to the market downturn?"  By a small majority, the answer was "No." 

• 28.95% of responses indicated "No, the market really isn't so bad," which was punctuated quite nicely by last weeks' record-setting OBS sale of 2-year-olds in training.
• Nearly a quarter of readers felt that the number of mares bred would not fall, because "breeders haven't yet learned a lesson." 
• More than one out of five poll responders - 21.05% -- said they personally would breed fewer mares this year.  Another 23.68% said that they believe the industry as a whole will see fewer matings.

Full poll results may be viewed here.

The poll was inspired by a disappointing yearling and mixed sales season, and the conventional wisdom  that it could have been worse; many sales averages during the fall and winter were helped considerably by overseas buyers who came to U.S. sales to take advantage of the weak dollar. With luck -- it'll take plenty! -- the market will prove that it's starting to rebound.

This week's poll asks readers of The Five-Cross Files about their horse ownership.  View the poll and vote here. Don't forget, you can always comment on the poll question and share your wisdom or questions.

In my last post, I discussed some of the hips offered at the OBS March Selected Sale of 2-Year-Olds In Training. If you're a subscriber to The Blood-Horse, you probably already know about the Data Digest. This publication comes out about a week before major sales and gives buyers useful information about the horses being sold.  It includes lists of sires represented in the sale, plus broodmare sires, leading consignors, breeders, and buyers, and other important statistical charts.  For 2YOIT sales, there's also a chart of the official work times for each hip, and a bonus chart of TrueNicks "A++" and "A+" rated hips.

Normally available only to subscribers, the edition for the OBS sale is open to readers of BloodHorse.com blogs.  Download the FREE PDF. And be on the lookout for daily updates during the sale, and the results edition after the auction concludes.

I'm not in the market for a 2-year-old.

My interest lies in breeding; when I get to the point of bringing a horse to the track on my own, it'll probably be one that I've bred.

No, I'm not in the market for a 2-year-old.  But if I were, and the OBS select sale was my venue, I think I'd have to look towards Pulpit this year. It's not that I've always been a great fan of the Claiborne homebred (even though I recently wrote an article about the Blue Grass Stakes for Keeneland magazine and got to interview Seth Hancock about Pulpit's 1997 win in the Keeneland springtime classic, and about the amazing Claiborne foundation family that descends from Round Table's half sister Monarchy, which has produced other sires Johannesburg and Tale of the Cat).  It's not even that Pulpit is one of the leading sires of 2008 (the success of Louisiana Derby (gr. II) winner Pyro has helped to move Pulpit to #2 on this year's list).  It's more than the fact that he has already had a $280,000 2-year-old colt this year, or that his lifetime yearling average tops $235,000 (though, as a commercial breeder, I've got to admit those numbers are quite attractive).

The reason that I'm high on Pulpit at the Ocala Breeders' sale is that he -- and his sons -- have colts and fillies out of some broodmares with interesting pedigree patterns. If Pulpit's gaudy sales averages weren't enough to convince you that he's well-regarded, take a look at the catalog for the OBS Selected sale.  In addition to three of his own offspring, Pulpit has three sons with sales progeny:  Essence of Dubai (1 hip), Sky Mesa (6), and Tapit (7). The Pulpit line, therefore, accounts for 3.7% of the hips at this prestigious sale.

So, what's so interesting?  How about hip #98, a chestnut filly by Pulpit out of Sun Princessa. The Pleasant Colony mare is a full sister to European Horse of the Year St. Jovite and useful sire Lac Ouimet, and half to millionaire L'Carriere.

Then there's hip #393, an Essence of Dubai grey or roan colt out of the interestingly-bred (and equally interestingly-named) multiple stakes producer Leggy Super Model. The dam of graded winners Papi Chullo and Rizzi Girl descends from Grey Dawn II on her sire line and Al Hattab on her broodmare sire line -- both names that occur disproportionately in the pedigrees of solid runners.

Sky Mesa's first crop are sophomores of 2008. Hip #399, a chestnut colt, comes from his second crop and was produced by Littlebigthing, a granddaughter of Sharon Brown, who is best known as the dam of Horse of the Year Holy Bull.  Littlebigthing is by Unbridled's Song, and therefore pulls in some of the Tartan Farms bloodlines that crossed so well with her granddam.

Hip #169 looks especially exciting, as the dark bay or brown filly is by freshman sire Tapit out of a daughter of Carols Christmas, the third dam of Pulpit's current star Pyro.  The relationship is even closer, as the sale filly's broodmare sire is Wild Again, who is also the broodmare sire of Pyro. If you think Pyro's going to hit it big and be a contender in the Derby, you should add this filly to your short list (or at least to your Virtual Stable!).