$20 Million Sounds About Right

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

marc w — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 23:32:59 GMT

Correction on the above comment when I gave credit to dray instead of shamfan49 for beautifully computer facts display. Dray is strictly comments on how great Big Brown is. Sham comments are a cornucopia of facts well written and displayed. (Although I believe he has great book knowledge he is sort of like I was in University-on a written test-I took neural studies after my Biology degree while working at the track---more than you need to know-I could ace written tests but my lab work was ordinary at best. When dissecting a human the parts didn't the same as the multi-colored parts they had in the books the color varied little-they were different when they were live and what you saw experiencing the real thing.)

No one commented on my doom and gloom anyway--mark my words the end as we know it is coming in horseracing. Not the end but a new beginning for the more positive in the crowds.

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

marc W. — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 18:27:36 GMT

Let me take this conversation on a different level

1-Racing is a dying sport in NA

2-Breeding is on a bubble, it has been for years supported by foreign interests and slot income for state breeding programs-yes there are exceptions-but!

3-The breeding game is completely different than the days of Northern Dancer-he would be lucky to service 40 mares a year-owners of his syndicate would normally supply them. Now we have 100 Storm Cat sires for example out there that hadn't started or showed little in their racing careers at stud. The breed is watered down and a sire sees possibly up to 200 mares AND may shuttle south.

Does anyone play the market? Sooner or later the fundamentals must come into play. Yahoo and other tech at 6000 x earnings at one time-eventually it comes back to earth. Breeding is out of whack as is the game. We race to breed not the other way, as it should be. Curlin' s 10 million racing earnings against AP Indy's yearly take?

I truly believe a doom and gloom scenario -in the next 15 years breeding in many states will start to die unless supported by slots. Tracks will as well-neither is particularly a bad thing. Eventually the slots and casinos will win out and stop funding tracks in the next 20yrs. We will be left with "stand alone tracks & strong racing markets that will have the interest of a dedicated select niche crowd as on these pages.

Now “dray” may hit me with beautifully displayed computer read backed facts to take a stand against my comments-----Yes, I could be wrong on the future but I don’t think I am. I was raised next to Fort Erie racetrack., saw Mickey Rooney, Mantle, Bobby Hull, Jane Mansfield and other famous people I got within a few feet of as a kid stopping by, the stands full. Woodbine, and Greenwood (Gone) the same. Pages of three Toronto newspapers dedicated to racing as well as two Buffalo papers carrying a racing reporter and entries.

I have worked around great horses and people in the business. Its different now-if Fort Erie and it’s once beautiful track which rivaled any, now only draw under a thousand most days-the grandstand is now limited to a fifth of the space or less once afforded for seating. Rockingham best racetrack food ever-dead to TB’s, Delaware just on life support from other means than handle, Atlantic City, Hialeah and on and on. If the tracks are dying without prop-up support how can the breeding farms prosper? $20 million not enough? GM stock at $3.00? Sometimes we have to admit-things are not what they were.

Sorry for the gloom and doom-sometimes people have to stop living in a fantasy world-God help the Sheiks if we don’t need oil or develop a alternative fuels---hope they left space for slots at their tracks.

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

LDP — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 21:25:47 GMT

Gunfighter i timed the race again and got 1.59.19. I didn't get the exact splits but from my quick glances, the first quarter went in 24, the half in 47, three quarters 1.10, the mile in 1.34, then the final time in 1.59.19. That means the ran quarterly splits in 24, 23, 23, 24, 25. Thats actually pretty fast. If anyone else has a stopwatch can you time the this years world cup, that way i know i'm not crazy.

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

Gunfighter — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 19:09:04 GMT

Whatever, you calling "dirt tracks" natural surface is what made me laugh, and perhaps Korea would be the right place for Curlin and his "dirty" connections.

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

Whatever — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 15:48:55 GMT

Gunfighter, I'm glad my comments made you laugh, "horses were made by God to run on natural surfaces".. Lets see if anyone is laughng in a few years when they have to sell Curlin to Korea because he CAN NOT produce anything that will run on rubber or turf. I have been around horses many years, you'll see. Also, are you aware that in Europe they race on a natural surface called GRASS. Did you know that????? Laugh all you want, that horse will be in a foreign country within 5 years.

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

LDP — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 14:26:32 GMT

I timed it the Euro/Dubai way. Why do we time like that, that seems a bit unfair to me. In my oppinion it should be when the gate opens in every race, since that is when the race start. I swear to god i am not lying. You can test me if you want. I went to get my stop watch again last night to see, but couldn't find it. I watch soccer sometimes, and use it to time the halves, normally, so i probably left it somewhere. But as i said if you time it the way i did, from when the horses leave the gate to when their noses touch the wire, and you get a different result, feel free to corect me.

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

Gunfighter — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 01:51:30 GMT

LPD did you time it the US way (25 yards from the gate) or the Euro/Dubai way (from the gate opens) ?

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

LDP — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 22:34:58 GMT

Gunfighter, it was one second slower, and honesly i timed it with my own stop watch and got him in a second faster, and yes it is a real stop watch, not some some weird cheap thing you get out of a cerial box. I timed that race multiple times mind you and got the same results every time, only differing at most three tenths of a second. Go ahead and time it you'll see what i mean.

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

LDP — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 22:31:39 GMT

Also for Curlins record last year how the world did you get three for six he raced nine times, WINNING SIX times. He raced in his maiden, the reble, the AK Derby, the KY derby, Preakness, Belmont, Haskel, the JCGC, and the BCC. He won his maiden, the Reble, the AK derby, got third in the KY derby to HS and SS, won the preakness beating HS and SS, got second in the Belmont to RR, beating HS, third in the Haskel to AGS and HS, won the JCGC agains Lawyer Ron, won the Classic against LR HS SS and AGS. The record for Curlin vrs. SS is Curlin 2 SS 1 out of three. The record for Curlin vrs. HS is Curlin 3 HS 2 out of five. RTR and him only race once at her prefered dist., and she won by a diminishing head. The record for Curlin vrs LR is Curlin 2 LR 0. Curlin's not so bad family and race record, winning in Dubai twice, once under 132lbs the other eight lengths ahead of everyone else, w/o steroids should go to his credit. Also tell me why everyone before the DWC was say that is was a fantasict field because of the likes of Jalil, Asiatic Boy, and Premium Tap, and now that curlin won so easily you say it was a weak field. I remember many saying it would be Curlin's biggest challenge yet, and not you say o those horse weren't all too much, or they were past their prime. Well if i remember correctly Jalil had just won his prep before the DWC and was looking awfully good, Asiatic Boy, was the only Dubai TC winner and ran a very game second to a dangerous Well Armed who got away with a slow pace, and Premium Tap had been racking up wins and runner ups ever since he came to Dubai. Yeah that sounds real weak. Why don't you all stop being so hypocritical and actually admitt that what Curlin did in Dubai is unprecidented.

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

LDP — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 22:10:10 GMT

Cigars Mom, if your going to look at family, look at both sides and some of the relatives. Smart Strike is a leading sires, and has produced more that just Curlin. Plus smart strike has sired sprinters, synthetic horses, and turf horse, so Curlins sire line, not all too weak. Also some relatives are Square Eddi, one of the top three juviniles this year, and English Channel, last years BC Turf winner and Eclipes award winner, just to name a couple. You can't just look at one side of the family, especially if the other side has had such success. Also you can't perdict that just because some horses in his line didn't do real hot, means he won't. Some of the best broodmares have done absolutly nothing on the track, like BTH or Secretariats dam, i think, Somethingroyal. On the other had there are mares who were fantasic on the track and didn't do a darn thing as a broodmare, like Genuine Risk, sorry if i mispelled any names. Also breeding is quirky, you may put two spectacular horses togeather and get an absolute dud out of it. Some of the best horses have come from modest backgrounds. Did you know that Secretariat had a full sister, well if you didn't the reason why is because she didn't do a darn thing on the track. Also Bold Ruler was know for producing sprinters, and look a what secretariat did, o just won the Belmont by 31 lengths. If you keep think the way you do then your never going to make much of a breeder.

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

NEVERKICKYOURDOG — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 19:14:07 GMT

I ALMOST FORGOT TO MENTION, I CAN STILL MAKE THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CASE FOR CURLIN AT $32,000,000 TO $35,000,000 WITHOUT HIS OBTAINING A VISA/PASSPORT!

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

NEVERKICKYOURDOG — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 19:09:39 GMT

NOTE TO CIGAR'S MOM: 1. IT HAS TAKEN HALF A CENTURY FOR EINSTEIN'S

"e=mcSQUARED" TO BE PROVEN TO BE TRUE. BREEDING RACE HORSES IS FAR MORE CHALLENGING. IN MY OPINION, YOU HAVE OVERLY-SIMPLIFIED THE MOST COMPLEX OF SUBJECTS.

2. HEADS UP TO BIG BROWN--IF YOU SEE A GUY BY THE NAME OF LUNDY WHO USED TO BE AT CALUMET, HE WON'T BE THERE TO SAY: "YOU'VE DONE A HECK OF JOB, BROWNIE!"

3. THE TWO BEST VALUES TO BE HAD AT THREE CHIMNEYS, IN MY OPINION, ARE:

LEWIS MICHAEL AT $12,500

FLOWER ALLEY AT $20,000.

LEWIS MICHAEL IS THE BEST VALUE IN KENTUCKY...GREAT OUTCROSS FOR "ANYTHING"...GREAT FEMALE FAMILY...HE MAY TAKE THE GIANT STEP OF MAKING RAHY A SIRE OF SIRES.

(NOTE: IF YOU SEE SMOKE COMING OUT OF ALL 3 CHIMNEYS, IT WON'T BE BECAUSE A NEW POPE WAS ELECTED... THEY GOT OUT ON BIG BROWN.)

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

Gunfighter — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 18:51:36 GMT

KatintheHat, only Beyers are manipulated after publishing.

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

KatintheHat — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 07:55:24 GMT

Interesting to note that Racing Form (the group that contested the time) still show his Dubai performance rating equal to the Monmouth BCC - even in the context of comparing Raven Pass performance at SA . . . His Timeform rating also continues to reflect the same.

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

Cigar's Mom — Sat, 22 Nov 2008 19:39:35 GMT

To accurately access the value of Curlin, you need to look at the pedigree. His family is very weak. His dam is unraced. Of her 5 foals (other than Curlin) of racing age, they have managed only 4 wins between them. Sheriff's Deputy's 1st foal, Deputy, sold at FT in Nov, IFT Smart Strike for $220K. The 07 Saint Liam brought a bid of $600K in September at Kee.

2nd dam Barbarika was a G2 winner, but of her 12 foals, 9 raced, and only 4 are winners. Her 2yo of this year is still unnamed.

Other than Curlin and Barbarika, there is only one other graded stakes horse in the ENTIRE family. There are only 1-2 other stakes winners/stakes plcd horses.

The 2nd part of the equation is the racing record. Curlin's best race this year was the BCC. The rest of his races this year, he faced allowance or G3 fields even though they had G1 status. On dirt, he beat only a handful of G1 winners of which most were turf or synthetic horses (Einstein, Well Armed) or past their prime (Brass Hat, Asiatic Boy). If you want to call beating a horse who ran for a tag 2 starts before a G1 as good competition, well.....He did not face nearly as good horses as he did last year...and last year while facing those horses (Street Sense, Hard Spun, Rags to Riches, and I'll even give you Lawyer Ron), he was 3 for 6. This year, he hooks a good field, runs a high figure for synthetic, yet can only manage 4th. I think the fact he raced this year without steriods also needs to be pointed out.

The 3rd thing to look at is the current market. Keeneland was down 46% in November. Stud fees have dropped. The September sale was down. Yes, they could price Curlin at 100K or $125K, but they would not get many mares, especially this late. Curlin will make up a group of 20 stallions standing for $75,000 or more in 2009. The list is headed by the regally bred AP Indy at $300K and Kingmambo at $250K. Funny Cide's sire, Distorted Humor, is at $225K. Awesome Again and his Horse of the year son, Ghostzapper are both at $150K. (GZ also has pedigree), Curlin's sire, Smart Strike and Unbridled's Song (sire of Eight Belles and Midshipman this year)are also at $150K. Giant's Causeway, who sired Heatseeker and others this year is at $125K (take a look at his pedigree!). The 100K club is the blue blooded sire of Country Star, Acoma, and Muska: Empire Maker; Mr. Greeley (his fee is too high). Gone West is down to $85K. Those joining Curlin at $75K are the well bred Bernardini, Pulpit; El Prado (sire of Kitten's Joy, Medaglia D'Oro, and Artie Schiller), Elusive Quality (sire of Raven's Pass, Smarty Jones), Indian Charlie (who sired Indian Blessing), and Tiznow, who had Well Armed, Colonel John, Da tara, Tough Tiz's Sis this year.

Given the current economic situation, people are more likely to gamble on a proven stallion. For those that can't, they'll search in a much lower price range.

Lane's End does not do dual hemisphere (and to those who like that...boo hiss....its hard on the horse and who needs 300+ foals by one stallion in a single year? Do you really think that many mares match up to one stallion or are the farms just breeding anything? I think we all know way too many horses are being bred.

A realistic book is between 125 and 140, which is a lot. Using the 80% live foal average, that is somewhere between 100 and 112 foals. That is $7.5 million to $8.4 million the 1st year. Insurance alone is 3% of the stallion's value, or $600K a year. Plus marketing and care of the horse. Easily $1 million a year at that level. Based on 100 live foals, the 1st year "profit" is $6.5 million.

Year #2. Breeders will back away a bit. Why? Because their yearlings will hit the market when the first crop is racing. It can be either good or bad. Some as not as quick to judge by just a few months of a 2yo crop racing, but farms can and do discount. The 3rd year is the hardest. By the time those foals go to auction as yearlings, the stallion has both 2 and 3 year olds racing and most people have made a judgement on the new stallion. Its hard getting mares to a 3rd year stallion with some nice deals. But, even with sticking to the original stud fee, it's $6.5 million a year, 19.5 million...and that is short of the $20 million value.

Three Chimneys took a risk in thinking Big Brown would win the TC. Then the economy declined. IEAH was smart, and Three Chimneys is left holding the bag. At a $40-$50 million deal, they will be lucky to break even EVER...unless Big Brown really turns out to be a fantastic stallion. They are pretty much screwed in this economy.

Had Midnight Cry been smart, they would have let JJ buy them out a year ago. They have only themselves to blame for the current situation. They rolled the dice and lost again.

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

Gunfighter — Sat, 22 Nov 2008 08:41:23 GMT

"Curlin ran "lights out" in the Dubai World Cup"

Keep up to date with international racing and you will find that the timer was malfunctioning and the race was 2 sec slower than first reported.

And Asiatic Boy was never the same horse again after his season on turf in England.

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

KatintheHat — Sat, 22 Nov 2008 05:11:18 GMT

Gunfightr - Curlin ran "lights out" in the Dubai World Cup as in the 2007 BBC. That is acknowledged internationally.

Asiatic Boy was the first horse to win the UAE Triple Crown, he was no slouch.

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

Pam S. — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 21:15:28 GMT

To Michael Beach, you are so right on with the Ponzi scheme comments. It reminds me of the real estate market several years ago in Las Vegas, where I live. People bought houses not primarily to live in, but to "flip" after a short time to make $$$.

Well, a few did, most didn't, and many ended up in trouble in the subsequent price correction. Now the whole economy is in the crapper (with Las Vegas kind of Ground Zero). Many parallels to the bloodstock market, I think. There was a Bluegrass Bubble 20 years ago and it burst too.

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

Kat — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 20:55:03 GMT

Better than Honour should go to Smart Strike. . . And not to forget that the Breeders Cup Classic and Turf HOY in 2007 was English Channel, by Smart Strike. He was a very different type of horse conformationally than Curlin, though. Also, Smart Eddie, one of the better 2 year olds in the country has just come from Europe and runs quite well on synthetic (he was 2nd in the BCC for 2 year olds). If Jackson could get the 20% of Curlin for $10, my hat would be off to him. There'a a reason they call it "horse trading". . .

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

Gunfighter — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 20:46:55 GMT

"Why has everyone forgotten Dubai where Curlin beat the best horses in the world?"

LOL, it was conciderd the worst DWC field since it's inaguration.

Curlinlover get real, in the BCC he meet worldclass horses for the first time in 2008 and got stuffed

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

Gunfighter — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 20:39:52 GMT

"Horses were made by God to run on dirt or other natural surfaces"

This made me LOL.

Dirt a natural surface?

20 Mil for Curlin is a fair price, concidering that he is strictly a dirt horse and will have no appeal to the overseas market.

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

outsider — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 18:15:38 GMT

I THOUGHT WE WERE TALKING ABOUT WHAT THE HORSE IS WORTH.

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

CURLINLOVER — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 17:22:43 GMT

Daziel, you've peaked my interest with your obvious horse knowledge. I'm a novice - having only followed horse racing seriously since Funny Cide. Before that, I watched only the Triple Crown series like everybody else. I know I come across as very defensive about Curlin; I'm a devout fan of his with even a silver Bengal cat named after him. I feel like a defensive mother when people talk down about Curlin. He has done so much to get me through a very difficult year, and I owe him getting through it through seeing him and cheering for him. I'm sure sure lots of what you say is true; I actually do have some inside information confirming what you were hinting at earlier. But since Dubai, Curlin has been "clean". Doping is illegal overseas. By the way, how many previous equine stars were clean? Only recently did this issue come into focus. And it should! We must take everything in context, however. And what about Zenyatta? She's great with a massive physique! Does that prove anything? Does that make us suspicious? Maybe - maybe not. I'm sure lots of former horses became stars while being "juiced". No excuse; and I guess you touched a sore note when you pointed out things I already felt to be true. However, It does in no way lesson my love for an innocent Curlin who did so much for me personally, for the sport, and the fans - whether he ends up with HOY or not. I'm grateful for having seen him. And I'm sorry he didn't have the likes of connections that funny Cide, Smarty Jones, and Babaro did! He would have been America's Horse! instead, people are - like you said - childishly critiquing him because of his connections. Michael Beach rightly said that horses aren't the same after Dubai. I guess this might have been true for Curlin as well; I wanted him to be the same; but he wasn't. So, with due respect to your obvious knowledge, Daziel, let me keep my love for Curlin strong without getting upset when someone puts him down. We shall see what kind of foals he produces! Nobody knows. What Has Smarty produced so far?

I would personally love to see Dreaming of Anna hooked up with Curlin; she's like a smaller version; what a vision I have of that match! But Ginger punch! Wow! now that would be interesting! Or eventually Zenyatta? Hello?

Let's all enjoy horse racing without all this "fighting"; it can't be good for the sport. We should be sharing our favorites with each other without "taking down" others' favorites! Don't you agree? This sport needs fans like us - no matter the opinions and favorites!But, as always, I will conclude with my slogan: :-)

GO CURLIN!!!!!!!!!!!

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

lovethedead — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 04:48:39 GMT

AdueFarms3, Better Than Honour is by Deputy Minister and Curlin is out of a mare by Deputy Minister. That inbreeding is a little close.

re: $20 Million Sounds About Right

AdueFarms3 — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 03:54:56 GMT

They should sent Better Than Honour or a mare lined by her to Curlin, what an interesting match that'd be, even a horse like Zaftig or Dreaming of Anna, maybe even Ginger Punch or Azeri?