Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013 -- and Other Silver Linings of the Economic Downturn

Hard to Give Away -- Barren Mares at Breeding Stock Sales

The Five-Cross Files — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 22:27:48 GMT

Barren mares are usually second-class offerings at Thoroughbred bloodstock sales. Add to that the current economic downturn, and these mares are a tough sell. Here's why I believe they might be the best value you can find, though.

re: Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013 -- and Other Silver Linings of the Economic Downturn

kittensjoy — Sun, 14 Dec 2008 03:34:09 GMT

As far as breeding good quality horses, wouldn't it be wise to instate a program where sires (and dams as well) must prove themselves before we breed them? I know that they have gone to this program with other breeds and it seems to have helped eliminate the inferior horses floating around. Perhaps we could have the horse prove themselves on the racetrack (they must run a certain distance within a certain time or something similar) and possibly a conformation/soundness check as well.

re: Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013 -- and Other Silver Linings of the Economic Downturn

h. bud — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 16:00:51 GMT

Gentlemen, Ladies, et. al.:

The larger the number of horses bred, the greater chance that more horses will be great and the year will be better. If we only had 5ooo+ horses bred, the Sheiks would own them all. In the mid 80's the industry leaders said they would never again price their stallions out of the market; Guess they just forgot. Here we go again.

Breeding to race is what I've been doing since 1999 - and yes the market ignors those horses we try to sell. Sometimes rarely drawing a bid above reserve. Many are then sold under reserve. All we sold went to the track and are multiple winners. One with 5 pictures already. The Ky breeders control the market with their "clients" who are conditioned to buy their products. This year though they are changing their tunes; strongly promoting "the mating" will produce a superior "race" horse vs. pinhooked sales horse.

If we want tracks around the country to survive and prosper, they must have stock to run at all levels and conditions. 35k plus foals yearly produces about 17k runners. NYRA has 3000 stalls; Aquduct has 450; and Saratoga has 1800; yet sometimes, we have 4 or 5 horse fields for a n1x/mcs. Racing secretary's fault? or what. If these numbers are accurate then the number of horses for all the tracks in the country to run competitive fields is more than what we are producing. Racing careers of greater than one year or six to seven starts would certainly help, no? The off-shore betting accounts siphon off too much money from the tracks and the tracks take to much cut for today's gambling business model to succeed. Gov't greed causes to much grief. OTBs (the teller) take too much money away from the tracks; NYCOTB and it's problems this past year illustrates that government is the cause of these problems. MYRA had nothing to do with the OTB problem between NYC and NY State.

Yes there are fewer people at the tracks than there should be and yes it tends to be an older population, but virtually all the "old" people there have all their marbles. There's no dementia that I see; great characters, who must read a form and dope out who they think will win. If you don't think that is stimulating, read one line in the past performance of a horse and try to tell me all the facts hidden there as well as the overt ones. You need you mind to play horses. It's inexpensive fun too. Let's make horse racing work even better in the future.

re: Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013 -- and Other Silver Linings of the Economic Downturn

joe — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 19:50:10 GMT

You had me...until that Alan Keyes quote! I was at the Belmont and maybe the oppressive heat, BB's human connections, or the Eight Belles tragedy-there was a general air of resignation to a BB triple. Nothing like the atmosphere re: Smarty or Funny Cide or Silver Charm...or even Rags to Riches for that matter. And that matchup with Curlin drew only 46,000, a warning bell to the industry right there.

re: Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013 -- and Other Silver Linings of the Economic Downturn

Tom Kovach — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 18:53:03 GMT

I find it interesting that your article ends with an Alan Keyes quote.

Keep in mind that Alan Keyes has been seen riding horses. I've never seen a picture of Barack Obama or John McCain on horseback.

Keep that thought in your saddlebag as you consider your political leadership options.

Tom Kovach

Tennessee state chairman, and

National outreach communication director

America's Independent Party

www.AIPnews.com

(Dr. Keyes was the AIP presidential candidate)

re: Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013 -- and Other Silver Linings of the Economic Downturn

Majella from Ireland — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 18:49:45 GMT

Kayte - Rags To Riches trained at age 4. A broken leg forced her retirement. They didn't whisk her away to be bred at all.

re: Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013 -- and Other Silver Linings of the Economic Downturn

Kayte — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 18:09:43 GMT

Big Brown was just an exceptional allowance level horse that found his best stride due to the steroids that Dutrow was feeding him. Once he was pulled off off those, he went to being just another racehorse, not the spectacular machine everyone touted him to be.

My feelings were with Curlin and, if she had raced longer than 3 yrs old, Rag to Riches. Those are the horses that we need to see more of. It was nice to watch Curlin mature into the champion he was when he finally left the track for the stud barn. and I'm thinking that Rags to Riches would have been astounding as an older horse has they not whisked her away to be bred...much emphasis should be put on the breeding barn and the focus should be put back on the racetrack, which was why these horses were bred for the last hundred years.

I think the downturn is going to benefit racing. Yes, some proven stallions are going get better quality books because breeders are going to be choosy about the high-end stallion they send that proven mare to. But you will also have the better quality yet unproven stallion getting better books than they would have had they just been another 'face in the crowd' as they started their stud career. A smaller budgeted breeder isn't going to send his blue-hen mare to the high-end stallion when his budget is stretched tight. He's more likely to look into a son of that same stallion, who isn't as expensive as the one he was considering at $250,000 a mare. Some breeders may send their better mares to Curlin rather than Smart Strike since Curlin is a tad cheaper. Yes, unproven but you are getting the same genetics as Smart Strike in essence. And the foal won't be expected to sell for $500,000 to $1 milliion when they enter the auction ring just in order to make a slim amount of profit over expenses.

That's just my opinion. I think you hit the nail on the head with this article and hopefully what you say come true- we all know that racing desparately needs it in order to survive into the future.

re: Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013 -- and Other Silver Linings of the Economic Downturn

Tom — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 17:55:54 GMT

How can you say that Big Brown was as good as Smarty? SJ nearly won the TC with convincing victories in the Derby and Preakness and a near miss in the Belmont owing to a questionable ride for his only loss against much more competitive fields. For what ever reason, BB didn't show up in the Belmont. If his shoe was the problem he wouldn't have been in stalking position going into the final turn, he would have been out well before that. I would say that the track results for both Afleet Alex and BB were about equivalent. Its hard to evaluate a horse's true greatness when they only run 8 or 9 times and never against older horses.

re: Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013 -- and Other Silver Linings of the Economic Downturn

LDP — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 17:00:52 GMT

BB did not race the quality of horses SJ and AA did, he also wasn't loved by almost everybody. His connections did not have that feel good story, which lost him fans. My point is we need a horse we can fall in love with who will stay around longer than two or three years.

re: Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013 -- and Other Silver Linings of the Economic Downturn

arliss — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 14:40:28 GMT

Big Brown was as good as say, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, etc. A Triple Crown winner is something special. We may never se another one.

re: Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013 -- and Other Silver Linings of the Economic Downturn

LDP — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 03:21:40 GMT

Racing needs another standout three year old that will go on to race as four five and six year old. Curlin was a great horse, and i love him, but he didn't generate the exctiment that Smarty Jones or Afleet Alex did, probably because during that year so many were rivals to him and others favorites. Smarty and Alex got the fans support, everybody loved them and their connections. We don't need a triple crown winner, we need a star that newer fans can see and become attatched to. Even at four you can't do that, not over two or three seasons. We need a young brilliant horse with some deserving connections, that shows up every time and is a standout, even amoung rivalries. Then they need to stay around longer so we can grow to love them like the veterans did back in the good old days. When this finally happens, with not just one, but with all our stars, then we will once again rise.

re: Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013 -- and Other Silver Linings of the Economic Downturn

Willy — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 01:21:33 GMT

I really support "Breeding to Race". One thing I see at the sales is too many owners letting their horses sell for much below fair market value or RNA them at an unreasonable price. Too often owners and breeders put so much into the commercial market that they forget the reason for the business is to actually race horses. More commercial breeders and owners should look beyond the sales ring and race their stock if it does not reach fair market value.

re: Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013 -- and Other Silver Linings of the Economic Downturn

Kateinabox — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 00:12:01 GMT

Looks like I should stay in Japan for a few more years before attending UA's racing industry program. Hope your predictions come true. They sound rather do-able based on the current state of the industry, and the global economy. Goo Obama!

There was a horse at Nakayama this weekend named King Obama. He came in 4th but all down the stretch the Japanese were screaming RUN OBAMA RUN!!! GO OBAMA GO!! It was pretty funny.

If this happens the industry might really have been lucky. It will give racing plenty of time to fix itself internally before we hit another successful period. Both stock wise, drug wise, and everything else in-between. This recession just might save the industry in the long run. Plus I mean horse racing has endured all sorts of recessions, and depressions... we can handle this one.

re: Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013 -- and Other Silver Linings of the Economic Downturn

train-r — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 00:05:18 GMT

As in all corrections, the real players, who are in it for the long haul, will survive. Unlike the investors, some of us, who make racehorses our life, will go through this market just surviving, and be glad just to get to the other side of this market. All the "make a quick buck" players will get out and racing will come out of this stronger and better. As for a triple crown winner, NOTHING but the triple crown has the power to absolutely turn around this business, and, if marketed correctly, bring racing into a new Golden Age.

I go forward seeing not only the problems in this industry, of which there are many, but also the untapped glorious potential and possibilities that are ONLY possible in a sport that can also touch your heart.

There is a thirst for a "hero" in this country, and yes world, that will drive the next big entertainment dollar boom. Few sports can provide both a hero, combined with the human affection for animals. If we can become proficient at promoting our sport, I believe horse racing will get its chance to evolve into a thriving sport.

re: Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013 -- and Other Silver Linings of the Economic Downturn

VP — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 23:41:30 GMT

On the up side maybe breeders will be more selective on who they send their mares to. You may start to see some good older proven (and more affordable)stallions increase their bookings. Rather then the younger unproven ones. Which seems to be in fashion these days. If you want a triple crown winner infuse our speed bloodlines with new stock (horses from other countries with soundness and staying power). Speed is cheap if you can't carry it. Adding new blood would introduce more vigor and fertility rates would increase. Banning steroids from racing would also help the fertility rates and more then likely lessen breakdown rates.

The prices of of stud fees are ridiculous. Sheer greed. A top sire at a $100k plus has a stakes winning percentage of between 5% and 9%. I don't know any other business that would spend that kind of money with a percentage rate of success that low. Look at the Green Monkey LOL. How many race horses win/earn a million dollars? How many become in fashion sires after they are finished racing? There are too many stallions, with more retiring each year with out proving themselves on the track. There are too many unwanted horses as it is, so cutting down on the number of mares bred isn't such a bad thing. It would also be nice to see more breed to race stables.

re: Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013 -- and Other Silver Linings of the Economic Downturn

Justine — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 23:06:15 GMT

@LL: the general public doesn't pay attention once the Triple Crown season passes. While the Breeders' Cup is hopefully climbing up the ladder eyes will always turn to the spring 3yo season, and sad as it seems we have to emphasize that.

A very optimistic take and hopefully exactly what we need. The less demand the longer the good ones stay on track, the fewer mares are bred, the fewer stallions there are, and we'll start paying attention to the foals that can actually run.

re: Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013 -- and Other Silver Linings of the Economic Downturn

DONNA — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 23:01:25 GMT

LL, it certainly does'nt need another Green Monkey!!!!

re: Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013 -- and Other Silver Linings of the Economic Downturn

LL — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 21:55:42 GMT

Racing needs more than a triple crown winner- get real!

re: Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013 -- and Other Silver Linings of the Economic Downturn

Jay Taylor — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 21:10:33 GMT

This is a Great article. I agree that we have been over breeding to inferior stock. The commercial market breeder has not always been an asset to our industry either. When new owners pay 500K and more for yearlings that cannot break their maidens, it is not good for our industry. But let’s not forget about the small breeders in many states that help provide a base for our industry. These are the people with one or two low to mid quality mares that they breed and race locally. The local industries desperately need these breeders. We need the 5 to 25 thousand dollar claimers, not only to fill race cards but also to continue to build our fan and support base. I hope enough of these breeders can survive this economic downturn. They are as critical to our survival as the large breeders.

re: Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013 -- and Other Silver Linings of the Economic Downturn

DONNA — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 20:43:33 GMT

As they say, what goes up must come down. The world including the racing industry has bloated itself with greed for the almighty dollar. Prices could not continue to spiral upward for houses, horses, cars, etc. it,s time everybody woke up no matter what industry you,re in.

I do agree with you that breeding will improve as it should for the horses sake. There are way too many horses who are bred not for durability and stamina but for the prices they will bring. Bring down the numbers and bring up the quality and maybe sometime in the next 4 or 5 years we,ll see another much needed triple crown winner.

re: Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013 -- and Other Silver Linings of the Economic Downturn

DONNA — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 20:43:32 GMT

re: Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013 -- and Other Silver Linings of the Economic Downturn

draynot — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 20:40:18 GMT

i was surprised that we didn't get that triple crown winner this year with the lack of talent but in the belmont the derby/preakness winner proved to be just as weak as the ones he beat the two previous races. what a dissapointing and weak year for 3 yr olds bred and raced exsclusively in the good ole usa.

i hope you are right that in the years to come racing will get back to producing sounder animals and ones more suited to going the distance. please no more of the animals like this years derby/preakness winner who's bloodlines were questionable that he could handle the longer routes but was able to win simply because no other horse he faced was very good at the time he faced them.

i must add that when we see that next triple crown winner i sincerely hope that he comes from a quality class of animals and doesn't just win it because none of the others were any good.

this year we were fortunate that the big ole browneye was whipped in the belmont. the title of triple crown champion should be earned against good competition and not worn just because the rest of the class you faced stunk when you faced them. it would have diminished the title for him to have won under those circumstances.