Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

rocket — Tue, 05 May 2009 23:35:48 GMT

Congtratulations to Mine That Bird, his jockey, and his trainer. Oops, his dosage is high. However, I observe the full brother,sister act, Swaps, Track Medal. Oops, Norther Dancer shows there, as well as mr. P. Look to the engine room and the individual. The brave "little" horse sort of outran his expensive competitors and his fictitious numerical evaluation

Mine That Bird's Misleading Dosage Profile

The Five-Cross Files — Mon, 04 May 2009 14:46:31 GMT

Last week I said that future Derby winners would have a higher Dosage Index than in the past. It happened this year -- but here's why Mine That Bird's win does NOT add value to my prediction.

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

WILLIAM F YARCE — Mon, 04 May 2009 00:14:44 GMT

I'm so happy because at my small breeding farm (8 broodmares) I have PENTHOUSE PARTY (USA) By Red Ransom out of Risque Attache. My mare and Mine That Bird has the same female line. Mine That Bird through Mining My Own - Aspenelle - Little To Do - Tribal To Do - Marge's Request and Cedquest. penthouse Party through Risque attache - Ambassador Of Luck - Detente - Cedquest.

But for all small breeders victories as this of Mine That Bird are our fountain of drems

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

CRob87 — Sun, 03 May 2009 01:38:09 GMT

So much for the dosage beliefs...AGAIN !!!

Mine That Bird at 5.40 and 1.19. 5.40 is way above the 4.00 max.

I can't remember exactly who, but wasn't there another Derby Winner above the 4.00 max also??? Maybe Monarchos ???

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

Ladyclever — Sun, 03 May 2009 01:20:26 GMT

Point proven with 'little' BIRDSTONE -- Derby and Oaks --He's the next NORTHERN DANCER when it comes to sires. When will the breeders learn that 'bigger' is not better when it comes to race horses? --Size equates to unsoundness. And so far as dosage -- look at what the sire and his siblings have done-- and at what distance-- and forget someone's 'exercise' with numbers. If their numbers'worked', they would own all the best horses and win all the money ---Think about it.....

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

Porfi — Sat, 02 May 2009 23:48:30 GMT

Well, Ladyclever I bet you feel good! No one I know even looked at MTB.

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

Karen in Indiana — Sat, 02 May 2009 03:21:43 GMT

We do have sturdy here in the U.S., but they're not the 'it' horses of the season. Cetewayo is one - he was winning graded stakes until he was 8. Einstein should be when he retires. And I think the Tiznow's seem pretty sturdy. Look at what Well Armed has accomplished after breaking a hip. If I were breeding, I think I'd look for a horse that raced at least until the end of their 4th year and check with their relatives to see what they're doing.

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

Pedigree Shelly — Fri, 01 May 2009 20:53:43 GMT

Robert ,You made some excellent points ! Especially about importing some stamina from European bloodlines .The Unbridled's Song's do seem to have alot of soundness problems ! Empire Maker is an excellent young sire who does add stamina . Istill like IRW for the derby and GQ is a good long shot bet ! Iwish you well on Derby Day :

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

ROBERT — Fri, 01 May 2009 18:32:59 GMT

Pedigree Shelly: I like Pioneer because his sire won over a 1 1/2 and Empire Maker was toying with fiels at 1 1/8 miles. Granted he ran 2nd to Funny Cide, but was compromised by a bruised foot. Empire Maker comes from a family of stamina and looked the part. Unbridleds Song....while bred like a distance horse, does not through stamina with enough consistancy to be labled a source of it. Yes, Storm Cat sired Tabasco and Cat Thief. Cat Thief was from a stout line and had Pat Day. Enough there to get 1 1/4 miles. But he never won again at a distance. Tabasco Cat did not beat anything in his Belmont. Keep in mind he too was from a stamina line. Sauce Boat is not noted for stamina, but his line is. The physical makeup of the Storm Cat line does not allow them to be distance horses. Yes he has Giants Causeway and a few others, but when you are bred to the best mares in the breed and you have over 1500 foals and 20 of them can go 1 1/4 miles......not eough to be labled stamina. If you line up the Empire Makers {E.M.} and the Unbridled Songs, more of the E.M.'s will go a distance. The Unbridled Songs {U.S.} will mature earlier and have less stamina. I know I am hard on these stallions, but if we are not, we don't do the breed any good. I would love to see some stout German Blood be brought over and mixed with our lines. I want another Triple Crown winner, but with 20 horses in the Derby every year, I am starting to get on board with the "Freak" theory that our next winner will be from outer space. Thanks for the debate. Good luck in the Derby :)

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

Old Timer — Fri, 01 May 2009 13:15:04 GMT

It certainly is tough to generalize. On one hand I cashed a nice exacta when Strike the Gold won the Derby for Zito -- with a higher dosage than is "required" to win the Derby. However I never expected the likes of Funny Cide (by Distorted Humor) nor Smarty Jones (Elusive Quality) to take the roses. I guess I'd lean towards Robert's comment. POTN (by Empire Maker) and Freisan Fire (A.P. Indy) should have no trouble getting 1 1/4 miles. Plus, either one should move up nicely on muddy tracks.

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

EarlySpeed — Fri, 01 May 2009 00:21:00 GMT

For one, I am liking Friesian Fire if the track is soupy. He already showed he can run a good race in a lake!

I think there is some relevance to dosage, and I like dosage on the higher side of two, i.e. 2.75 on up to 3.00. I feel that tactical speed, which can be held in reserve, gives a horse a lot more options and control over pace.

But don't mind me. Even though I have grown up around horses, I have never actually been to a track, but have watched a good number of horse races over my lifetime. I'm 56 years old. My late husband, on the other hand, taught himself handicapping so well that he put himself through college betting on the ponies. When tuition was due, he went to Aksarben.

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

TC — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 23:01:37 GMT

Wow, I mention one insight on how the Kentucky Derby plays out like a mile-and-an-eighth race and next thing you know Bloodhorse has a article written up on who will hit the eight pole first. I feel validated. That said, General Quarters will win the Kentucky Derby. Don't worry I'm a professional. :)

Scot's reply: Heh heh heh -- great minds think alike I guess!

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

Ladyclever — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 22:33:49 GMT

Speaking of stamina --- Everyone consistently ignores BIRDSTONE, Belmont Stakes winner and the only sire with 2 derby entrants. Watchout for the lightly raced Summer Bird from off the pace, and the speed oriented Mine That Bird (coming in from the high altitude training in El Paso) riding the rail with Calvin 'Borail'---Could be a most interesting Derby.....

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

Pedigree Shelly — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 19:54:58 GMT

Ok Robert I never implied that GQ had the pedigree to win the Triple Crown !! I meant he did have the pedigree to get a mile and a quarter!! If you dont like Unbridled's Song for Stamina then why do you like POTN he is from the Unbridled line ! By the way Storm cat did sire Tabasco Cat who did win the Belmont and Cat Thief who won the BC Classic !!

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

joe kalina — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 17:48:00 GMT

dosage--under 4.0 made me a lot of money--results is the word

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

ROBERT — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 17:26:19 GMT

Pedigree Shelly: General Quarters has a pedigree for 1 1/8 miles. Maybe I should clarify....He is not a Triple Crown horse. I agree he can probably go 1 1/4 miles, but I would bet my next paycheck he will never win going 1 1/2 miles in Grade 1 company, and thats what he will have to do in 5 weeks. His physical makeup will not allow him to go 1 1/2 miles. The same can be said about Quality Road. He is very muscle bound and nothing about him says "distance". That being said.....it would be great for racing if the "one-horse" stable won. But what racing needs is stamina, and stallions like Sky Mesa, Pulpit, Unbridleds Song, and Storm Cat do nothing to add that stamina to the Breed. If you notice, the Phipps family has only used Storm Cat sparingly, and when they did breed to him, they used stout mares. My Flag could run all day, but even she could not add distance to Storm Cat. Stallions who cannot go a distance should not be expected to sire horses who can. Colts like Advice and Musket Man are exceptions to the rule. But lets see them go 1 1/4 miles after the first saturday in May.

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

Teach — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 17:04:21 GMT

I think it's important to remember that Dosage is a tool - one of many - and that preparation of the racehorse is of prime importance. If a horse is properly conditioned to get a distance of ground from the time their training starts, it is more likely that they will be more likely to be there at the finish than those hurried to prevail at shorter distances no matter what their pedigree says.

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

Pedigree Shelly — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 16:34:37 GMT

In reference to my last comment I always thought that Damascus or Northern Dancer would have been great for Ruffian !

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

SMOF Racing — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 16:27:12 GMT

Hmm, all interesting theories.

I have two 2yos that are about to start B&T. They are by a sire who was the only horse (Anziyan Royalty) to beat Lava Man twice. They read on paper like they should be middle-Sprinters...until you look at the sire's results: 1 1/16 was his sweet spot. Dams were also from Classic running style horses. Does this mean that their DI/CD (2.11/0.50 and 2.11/0.57) will hold true? Time will tell.

Where will things go this year? I'm solid for F.Fire and C.Candy. I believe they will be on the board for paying tickets. Beyond that, I really can't say.

As for the future? I like the TBs that are showing Quarterhorse legs in their structure -- guess I'm more about conformation than numbers. I really don't want a tiny ankle or zero-cannons for a distance horse. If we are going to run them long, breed them for long. Don't breed them for speed (light frames) or you will end up with more Unbridled Song-type-peds showing how fragile they are.

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

Pedigree Shelly — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 16:17:25 GMT

Ihave a very interesting question Iknow it is off the subject but, I always wondered If Ruffian would have survived or not been injured at all ( I WISH !!! ) Who would have been the best stallion at the time to breed her to ??? Has this subject come up before ?????

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

Stacy — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 12:55:34 GMT

I think within 25 years there will have been a shift away from the "pretty pony" and back to where it belongs. If not it won't really matter, by then we won't have many left in training by May of their three year old year.

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

Pedigree Shelly — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 12:29:48 GMT

I think that down the road ,We'll see the dosage numbers come up maybe like to 5.00 and a CD of 1.75 or maybe 2.00 ? The one horse in the Derby I do not like from a pedigree standpoint would be Musket Man ,The Fortunate Prospect on the dams side is the problem but, alot of horses do outrun their pedigrees...

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

TC — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 05:02:48 GMT

When is the last time the KD has played out like a mile-and-a-quarter race? The jockeys ride as if it were a mile-and-an-eighth anyway. That last eight just determines how much the margin of victory is.

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

Karen in Indiana — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 02:25:47 GMT

O.K., I want a horse to win the Triple Crown and there's no sense in rooting for a horse to win the Derby if he can't do the whole thing. So I looked up the numbers for the past 3 TC winners and their numbers were: Secretariat- 3.00 & 0.90; Seattle Slew - 2.14, 0.68 & Affirmed - 2.08, 0.55. Just for comparison: War Admiral - 0.45, -0.52; Gallant Fox - 0.40, -0.57. On the list for this year's Derby, West Side Bernie has the best numbers, he has Secretariat all over his pedigree and Affirmed & Damascus. So on paper, he looks good, but... Regal Ransom would be next. I like him. I know everyone favors Desert Party over him, but I liked what I saw in his last race and he's been working out well here. The next two would be Mr. Hot Stuff and Chocolate Candy. I like Mr. Hot Stuff, but that's more of an emotional thing, I just like the horse, he's a Tiznow and he's gorgeous. Good thing I don't bet. LOL! This year's group is too good to single one out.

re: Kentucky Derby By the Numbers -- How the 2009 Runners Stack Up by Dosage

Whatever — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 21:38:20 GMT

Fresian Fire is one awesome speciman. Its nice to see all the top fillies are running in the Oaks the day before, its where they belong.