Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

gail — Fri, 08 May 2009 12:14:26 GMT

as the agent for the seller (Dave Cotey) on Mine That Bird all I can

say is WOW, great race....Soooo

exiting, I told Dave about your article and I am trying to forward it to him without success..can you

help me please...

sincerely

Gail BK

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

bertthclock — Wed, 06 May 2009 20:05:10 GMT

Interesting comments about MTB being another John Henry - I remember comments such as "If only he had not been gelded" or "Why was he gelded?" when JH was running - John Henry was gelded due to his studdish behaviors - He would have never made it out of Evangeline Downs had he not been gelded and Cabrini Green would not have been such a bar room bet as the only horse to ever beat JH three times.. He used to try to tear up his stalls. However, one of the comments which struck me as unknowing about JH, was the one by the great sports writer Jim Murray in the LAT - He raved about how a horse with poor breeding kept beating the Blue Bloods - Poor Mr Murray never realized the blue blood coursing through the veins of JH from the mare side by Double Jay and Princequillo. Murray just looked at Old Bob Bowers, although OBB did throw git that won the Michigan Mile and the LA Handicap. JH's dam side was very royally bred.

But, I'm glad to see the dossage for MTB has been adjusted. Vice Regent - Northern Dancer and someone, mistakenly, had him at 5.40? The figure is more in line with the other Birdstone runner in the Derby, Summer Bird. But, it is also nice to see MTB joining both Sunny's Halo and Northern Dancer as Canadian Champion 2 Yr Olds and KD winners.

Scot's reply: Mine That Bird does indeed have a Dosage Index of 5.40. I argued in a previous post that his Dosage is likely to change when other stallions are factored into the system in future revisions. ... Interesting comments on John Henry! I suspect we'll see more and more "gelding" comparisons to John Henry as time goes on... awhile back I looked at Brass Hat's similarities to John Henry.

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

steve s — Wed, 06 May 2009 19:44:56 GMT

EVEN THOUGH HULL DOES NOT HAVE GOOD FINAL TIME<HE WILL HAVE A BIG BIG INPACT ON WHO WINS RACE>LETS HOPE DISTANCE AND TRACK CONDITION NOT THE MAIN ISSUE IN PREAKNESS<THE MAIN MAIN PLAYER< HE CAN LAND AKNOCKOUT BLOW<JUST ASK SILVER CITY

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

steve s — Wed, 06 May 2009 19:21:54 GMT

WITH ADDITION OF HULL IN RACE <THE PACE SHOULD BE FAST FAST FAST<MOST LIKELY BIG DRAMA WILL NOT ENTER>ALWAYS DUCKING SOMEONE>

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

Gary — Wed, 06 May 2009 19:08:24 GMT

There were eight horses in the KY Derby that were multiple stakes winners...Mine That Bird was one of them.

By our analysis, there were 9 horses bred for the distance and bred well enough to actually get it in top company on the first Saturday in May...Mine That Bird was one of them.

There was one Champion in the KY Derby field...Mine That Bird.

We hit the tri and had Papa Clem but didn't box the super (for lack of money).

I hear Durkin's call now..."It's been 30 years...there's a furlong to go...and a Birdstone beats a Birdstone in The Belmont Stakes!"

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

The Phantom — Wed, 06 May 2009 18:54:04 GMT

not smoking a thing Nicanor is a lock to break his maiden next out and will show so much improvement he will go to the Belmont if Bird wins and stop him. This is the brother of Barbaro what chance would Bird or anyone have against him.

Bet big Drama in the Preakness we got the word from Mr meow [Greg j.] He's never wrong hhhhaaah only 0-4 for his Derby picks. Bird is very good but won't win the triple.Nicanor is my Darkhorse for the Breeders cup Classic!

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

steve s — Wed, 06 May 2009 18:42:45 GMT

AT LEAST MINE THAT WAS IN SHAPE ENTERING KENTUCKEY DERBY>HIS SIX FURLONG IN SUNLAND DERBY WAS 1:10.20.NO WAY HE WAS GOING TO LAST IN SUNLAND DERBY>THE PACE WAS VERY VERY VERY>THAT WILL GET YOU FIT OR BREAK YOU

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

Pedigree Shelly — Wed, 06 May 2009 18:20:46 GMT

Iknow alot of people are upset because MTB was gelded!!!Maybe he was unruly as a youngster or maybe it was physical ..Hey he won the derby ! Maybe another John Henry???

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

Megan — Wed, 06 May 2009 18:13:09 GMT

He will win it, i have a feeling

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

newsline2 — Wed, 06 May 2009 17:53:04 GMT

He has a good chance of winning both of the upcoming classics. The difference this year--even from those old Iron Horse stories--is that these animals are running more on their own strengths and capacity than ever.

Last year they were pumping most of those horses--including Curlin--full of steroids and pain killers. Now you're seeing the horses more genuinely.

How much smaller is this horse than the average TB?

As to grit, I don't know if I saw that. He was doing his job, and doing it well and fluidly. His run was not so different from the exquisite Rachel Alexandra's race, only smaller and so appeared "busier" perhaps.

He's young, he's not afraid to pass the other horses, he's not intimidated by the colts... his people are with him and his name is on the first leg of the TC silver trophy. History.

Being gelded, he doesn't even have the extra boost of natural testosterone to enhance his performance. His feet are good, he uses his legs, his mind is good (note the simple bridle and bit), and it is all him together with the talented Calvin.

If he stays safe and no one hurts him, he's got a good chance to win both races. He is already a Canadian champion, not a backwater no-name. And his pedigree is as notable as the others, most who are his relatives.

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

Pedigree Shelly — Wed, 06 May 2009 17:49:24 GMT

By the way Scot you never answered my Question on what would be A good way to go about getting in to Pedigree or mating aspects of Thoroughbreds as a career ! I've been told with all my Knowledge ,Ishould put it to good use ! I still have things to learn but, Iwould appriciate any thing you could suggest !!!! :)

Scot's reply: I sent you a private message. Email me to discuss further!

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

sgillies — Wed, 06 May 2009 17:48:31 GMT

Nothing about Thoroughbred horse racing is a "sure thing."

Breeding a champion stallion to a champion mare might produce a wonderhorse -- and might as easily produce a bottom-level claimer or a horse that never even makes it to the track. The best breeding systems are those that OUTPERFORM THE AVERAGES, meaning that they produce better runners more often than they would by complete chance.

Likewise for handicapping. The best horse doesn't always win. Or, indeed, the winner might have been the best horse but only came into his own recently (a scenario where the tools that handicappers employ would be useless).

Handicappers that make money -- and admittedly I am NOT one! -- do not count on winning every race. Instead, they count on winning far more than they would by sheer luck (always betting the "8" horse or the most colorful silks or the best horse name, for example).

Smart handicappers in the Derby saw a mud-loving horse bred to get the distance, who was ridden by a Churchill Downs specialist, who'd proved himself with a juvenile championship, and who was offered at odds that would make even a small bet pay off with huge rewards.

I applaud any smart handicappers who chose Mine That Bird -- hats off to you. And if you bet Mine That Bird in the Preakness at odds less than maybe 10-1, I think you're throwing away your money.

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

Beaner — Wed, 06 May 2009 17:42:55 GMT

I'm rooting for RAIN a week from Saturday. RAIN! RAIN! RAIN! Go MTB!!! I'm tired of waiting for a Triple Crown winner...I'm more tired of all the sympathy for the big money trainers and owners. To see it done by a little brown gelding would be awesome and hilarious!

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

Pedigree Shelly — Wed, 06 May 2009 17:39:12 GMT

I agree with Berttheclock ! The dosage profiles are used mostly on the Derby I still find the dosage useful in many ways ,Ijust think some of the stallions need to be re -catagorized ! Iwish MTB lots of luck ! I just feel terrible that my Derby horse ITW may never race again !!!I feel he was such a talented horse now we'll never find out just how good he might have been ???

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

TerriV — Wed, 06 May 2009 17:33:30 GMT

After this Derby it couldn't be more obvious that handicapping and predictions are just a fun game. No one knows what will happen - but I agree with quite a few who have commented so far on this blog - I love this horse and his story and he could lift the sport of racing and the spirits of the whole country if he were to win the crown. I'm behind him all the way.

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

stardust — Wed, 06 May 2009 17:10:16 GMT

showjumper

Too bad they can't put them back LOL! :)

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

stardust — Wed, 06 May 2009 17:09:16 GMT

The Legend and Speedball

You guys are so right. How many people bet on Mine That Bird? Yeah well there goes the big shots that think they have all the top wagers aye? I know of one person that is a good handicapper that would have probably bet on him had he though of it. But the rest, well Action speaks volumes. Triple Crown? Yeah I think so. :)

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

Speedball — Wed, 06 May 2009 16:29:48 GMT

The Legend-I agree totally. I think that we may see a triple crown winner this year. How anyone can say that The Bird is not a strong talent, obviously has not looked at his linage and the fact that he was Canadian 2 yr old champ. This horse is no slouch. Wake up people!!

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

The Legend — Wed, 06 May 2009 15:22:34 GMT

Beyer, Christ, Litfin, Watchmaker, Welch, The Wizard, Bris, Thoro Graph, Ragozin and any other public handicappers and tout services you all stink! You should all become weathermen in New England.

How can anyone post that Mine That Bird won't win the Preakness?

How many of you so called experts bet him in the Derby? So then how can you say he won't win the Preakness?????

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

Earl — Wed, 06 May 2009 15:07:01 GMT

In all the Comments ,only one person knew that Mind the Bird was the Canadian 2 year old of the Year.

This does not say much for all the American Horse experts.

Scot's reply: Errr... while only one person commented on this fact, it doesn't follow that no one else knew it. Your comment doesn't mention that Mine That Bird is a gelding or a Thoroughbred or a son of Birdstone, but it's not fair to assume that you didn't know those things....

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

showjumper — Wed, 06 May 2009 13:18:16 GMT

I'm still waiting to hear the reason why MTB was gelded? whoever made that decision is kicking themself now!

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

da3hoss — Wed, 06 May 2009 12:49:31 GMT

Sceptre, not only did he run by 18 horses in 21 seconds, squeezing by one and going around others, in his last race, $800,000 Sunland Derby, where he finished fourth, he was right there with the front group going :22/change and :45/change...looks like he can move on both ends of the race, though the last half is where it counts.LOL!

Everyone else in the race had the chance to pass everyone in 21 seconds at the end to win the race.

I love what Tim Layden wrote:

"Borel passed 18 horses in 21 explosive seconds. He shot by General Quarters on the rail, swept outside past Atomic Rain, ducked inside, and just past the three-sixteenths pole squeezed through a tiny gap between Join in the Dance and the rail. Mine That Bird has no stones, but Borel's are big enough for both of them."

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

berttheclock — Wed, 06 May 2009 12:33:03 GMT

The "pity" for IEAH should be placed on hold. Read about the possibly career ending problems for Revenge. Sad, if he doesn't recover. But, the bone chip in Desert Party's ankle explains much.

But, the "81" Beyer and he must have been "juiced" - Sounds as though some posters still believe that handicapping three old stakes colts is the same as rating older claiming short field races. Consider that colts and fillies in the spring of their 3 year old careers are similar to developing teenagers approaching their late teens and 20th birthdays. They develop, at various rates, from Jan through May. A race run in March should not be etched in stone. They can make remarkable advancements, seemingly, over night. Those who whine about that 81 should look back through the PP's of other Derby entrants. You will find many a 70ish and low 80 Beyer, suddenly, climbing into the 90s at various times. May have come in March or April, or even, as in MTB's case, in May. Remember, handicapping races on the Road to the Roses is not like looking at 5 to 9 year old claimers who run every 10 days or so due to the condition book. The young stars are being groomed from Jan to May on road maps - Many are over raced or placed in grueling races too early. The peak is desired for the first Saturday in May, not at the Santa Anita Derby or the Wood or the like. That is the same as winning the Big 12 BB title in February and losing in March Madness or the Final Four.

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

Terry — Wed, 06 May 2009 06:19:50 GMT

I just think it would be too funny (and GREAT) if all you people who think you know all this stuff watch this obscure horse win the Triple Crown this year. I hope he does!! What a boost for racing and the common man. Exactly what racing needs right now. I am cheering for him loudly to do it!! I sure hope he does. I will be watching and praying both for his wins and his safety. Another Tin Man. I love it. :-)

re: Can Mine That Bird Take the Preakness?

Bellwether — Wed, 06 May 2009 05:35:22 GMT

our connections want to be the next TC winner...but we HOPE the little guy can PULL it off...BREED MORE GELDINGS!!!...