Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

Can You Pick the Better Broodmare?

The Five-Cross Files — Fri, 29 May 2009 16:48:02 GMT

Presented here are two mares that are similarly-priced, with stakes-winning dams and a couple of foals on the ground. So which one is the better deal?

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

cinner — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 10:40:17 GMT

I worked wih Jim Day and rode Raj Waki as the stable pony before he left for stud. His foals were all runner's and Jim day did train most of them. We had a filly Too Late Now that won the Canadian Oaks she went on to be three yr old filly of the year. Raj Waki has great blood lines and great temperment for a colt. He often took his own foals to the race track. Once his foals started getting more wins at the track Raj was sent away for stud and was missed at the track...

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

cinner — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 10:40:11 GMT

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

Steve — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 19:58:05 GMT

If one is on a budget and wants to breed to race, I think it's best to breed to a proven sire. We bred my wife's unraced 3day event mare to cee's tizzy and the horse, named Tiz Only Money, won 128k. We've bred to unproven sires with less success. We currently have a weanling filly by cee's tizzy that we intend to race.

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

additional selections — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 14:12:02 GMT

Statistically on improving mares and average earnings per foal, as well as stakes quality foals - I think you should add Dance Master (NM), Lucky Lionel (OK), Skip Trial (FL) and yes he still stands, Marco Bay (FL), Bring The Heat (FL), Sweetsouthernsaint (FL)Strategic Mission (KY). These are my picks for race breeding. They offer the same kind of quality as any of the big timer on a budget- Daryl Tuttle

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

NY Gator — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 13:07:35 GMT

I'm a little late to the party, but what about Strategic Mission. Mr. P son, stellar female family. By your criteria, he's a little light with %wnrs and durability, but AEI v CI is through the roof as is %SW (nearly 14% if you exclude 08 2YOs, none of which have started as yet). And before anyone knocks him as a one horse wonder (in Showing Up...but what a horse!) take a look at his other 3 first-crop stakes winners from VERY limited opportunity (17 foals). One is a 2YO Panamanian champion and MSW/GSP in NA.

Full disclosure, I am a bit biased as I stood him in NY and bred to him as well, but I think his numbers hold up. But for a freak accident early in his stud career...who knows?

Scot, any chance you would post a list of the other breed-to-race stallions on your radar before you made the final cut?

Scot's reply: Tell you what -- for next year's rankings, I'll show data for all the group of sires that ALMOST made the list!

Is This a Broodmare -- Donnova

The Five-Cross Files — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 01:55:07 GMT

Blog trackback

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

Alfred Nuckols — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 14:39:30 GMT

Thank you for the "honorable mention" for Bright Launch. He has been a very useful sire for me here at Hurstland and when bred to good mares, gets good runners. I did breed Gimmeakissee, a graded SW, grade 3 SP producer, to him this year. Also bred to him was Falconet, who is a 1/2 sister to Miasma, 2nd dam of Big Brown. Falconet has already had a graded SW in Puerto Rico, Bright Mahogany, by Bright Launch. As a broodmare sire, I have his SW daughter, Turn to Lass, who has a Broken Vow yearling colt in this year's Fasig-Tipton July sale, and is in foal to Empire Maker for next year. So, I am trying to give him as much help as I can!

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

Randy McBride — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 04:51:32 GMT

Other obscure sires that have not had a large amount of foals but some impressive results are: BJ's Mark, Precocity, Desert God (sire of Pepper's Pride), Ghostly Moves, and Silver Season. I would have added Game Plan and Intidab but they are not secrets anymore. My Friend Max would have topped this list because he has had some serious stakes winners in Central America (for their part of the world) before he was brought back to the U.S. And Cee's Tizzy...Slew City Slew...awesome!

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

Bryce Be Quick — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 18:00:13 GMT

Request for Parole sure presents like a throw-back kind of horse, what with his 50-plus starts. I know of a nice 4YO gr/r filly by Wekiva Springs just retired who always showed great heart-- once she gets her feet back under her she might be a nice addition to his prospective book?

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

MachoAgain — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 21:17:46 GMT

Seattle Fitz,Request for Parole, Daaher,Flashy Bull and Pavarotti are all new stallions who I think could make an impact.

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

Huh — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 01:47:05 GMT

A new stallion I have my eye on is Request for Parole raced until he was 8, good longevity and raced on both turf and dirt.

Scot's reply: Make that another watcher! I expressed some interest in Request for Parole back in April (here), and again 10 days ago (here).

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

Marc W — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 16:21:37 GMT

Note to add when talking sires that doesn't show up in STATS.

As mentioned above Raj Waki ----Jim Day (Dance Smartly Fame) trained about 80% of them.

Steve Asmussen has almost all the Seneca Jones foals as 2 yr olds-house stud

There are few better with 2 yr olds than him. Seneca Jones seems a good 2 yr old sire by stats---I wonder how he does when not in The family (Asmussen) stables???????

Some figures can be moved by who owns the stud and trains their get.

If you go back a good number of years a Horse/Stud named "Grand Revival" had Gord Huntley (one of the greatest and highest % 2yr old trainers of all time) train almost his all his first crop (he bought them from the breeder in a package deal)-he had 13 2yr old winners---basically never to be heard of again after that season.

Just a little note of caution when noting the stats for you to consider.

I like this topic and many have noted a number of useful reasonable sires.

On a down note(sorry) it is getting more and more expensive to breed and raise one for racing-it is almost safer and cheaper to buy a 2yr old---thus in turn--- 2yr old in training sales-speed inclinations---breakdowns and lessening the breed. That hard knocking 10K mare you breed to that solid 10K stud you are 30K+ in the hole by his first race if you are paying others to board and train him. Again sorry for the added info about costs above. Personal experience.

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

Bryce Be Quick — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 15:49:13 GMT

Count me in with Wanda-- GREAT to see Slew City Slew on your list.

Now that Exchange Rate has moved up from Florida to Three Chimneys, I am looking for an improved book for him-- on our recent tour, of course, everyone wanted to see Smarty, but Anne was nice enough to honor our request for a close look at Exchange Rate-- very nice conformation.

As for regional sires not likely on your radar screen, I like PA's Lite the Fuse (Buckaroo) at $3,500 and down the street at the Maryland Stallion Station, Gators N Bears (Stormy Atlantic) at $5K a real value.

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

Flyingm — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 14:47:17 GMT

Another sire that has done well given his opportunities is Catnieus.

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

Alex — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 10:22:25 GMT

LanceS - That's something I'm planning to tackle as part of my ThoroughMetrics business. I think one of the reasons that nobody has done so up until now is that relatively few people have access to the data they'd need to test the predictive value of the measures they develop.

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

Alex — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 10:19:14 GMT

Scott - Although you mentioned the issue of sample size, I think you're underestimating it's impact on the predictive value of the statistics. Your opinions of Raj Waki and Intidab are based on the success of three offspring. There's simply no way to know if that's a fluke or not.

Scot's reply: Thanks for your comment. In this post, I purposefully put forward a few names that are less known -- both to introduce some new names to an audience that is mostly well-versed in the stallions on the market, and to allow for geographic diversity.
In a formal study, one criterion would be sample size, and at least two of the horses on my list would have been eliminated. You'll see in TBH MarketWatch that the studies are always accompanied by notes explaining criteria for inclusion, and one of these is always a statistically-significant sample size.

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

Jenny — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 14:55:19 GMT

Someone mentioned Buck Pond. Surachai was on my list two years in a row. He is a son of Slewpy and was raced out in California.

Jenny

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

American Classic Thoroughbreds L.L.C. — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 01:46:26 GMT

Everybody is forgetting a horse that has just passed away this year. He throws lots of runners. Bankers Gold!!!!!!!!

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

john lex ky — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 22:07:46 GMT

to michelle,

for tx, it is all Valid Expectations. Japs offered big money for him but Farrish, Stonerside, and the rest of his TX "power syndicate" know how important he is to keeping TX breeding alive!

Scott, good job on ur list, i know there are so many to sort through.

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

Marc W — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 21:45:08 GMT

Info on Raj Waki

Jim Day of Dance Smartly/Sam Son fame has trained almost all his get. Far cry from "No Class" line mares and top sires which he had at Sam-Son.

He might have owned him or part? I don't know that for sure but someone with him was sending ordinary mares to him and if nothing else they would win--they also were good at a mile plus.

As mentioned many times UNUSUAL HEAT-EVERY SURFACE-moves his mares up universally.

REPENT----I suspect he will do well and cheap! At least now.

Valid Expectations-Texas-Bred money. They seem to be half the field make-up in those races.

Big money-STREET CRY-I'm impressed enough with his first few crops-he's the real deal

Slew City Slew has always sent runners, Cee's Tizzy underrated keeps sending runners without the great mares, Devil His Due -solid sire, sound horses, but when a friend sent "Deputy Jane West" to him some years ago--I couldn't believe it-Here is a champion filly, and good producer--He's solid but I would have gone to someone else with a mare like her. Especially if I was selling.

He's divorced now-wife's side had the horse-bad selection?

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

Breeder — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 20:40:52 GMT

Mutakddim. Inbreed your mare to the Blue Hen mare Numbered Account through him and you have a push button stakes winner.

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

idealsong — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 16:20:52 GMT

I would also add to the list, Cryptoclearance. Underrated, but never fails to get a decent runner.

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

LanceS — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 16:13:07 GMT

Fascinating discussion. I do however object to the AEI > CI standard for "improving mares". The problem is that it ignores the sires of the mares' other foals. For an extreme case, imagine a stallions whose mares' other foals are all sired by Storm Cat, A.P. Indy, Distorted Humor, and Unbridled's Song. Does having an AEI < CI mean he doesn't improve his mares, or that he's just not as good as those four sires?

Another important point is whether the mares' other foals generally do better or worse than foals by the same sires? A CI=1.00 where the mares' other foals are sired by stallions with an average AEI=2.00 is very differnt from the same CI where the other foals have a 0.50 average AEI for their sires. In the first case the stallion is being bred to mares who consistently underperform their mates and the second case they overperform. If two stallions with a 1.50 AEI have those CIs, the first may well be a better stallion than the second, even though the second has a larger AEI-CI difference.

It's a pet peeve of mine that thoroughbred sire statistics are about at the same level of sophistication that dairy cattle used back in the 1950s. Over the last 40 years USDA has developed some incredibly sophisticated ways to evaluate dairy cattle sires. I'm amazed that no one appears to even be trying to develop something similar for race horse sires.

re: Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

Michelle — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 16:07:32 GMT

Thanks for mentioning Devil His Due. He is an awesome stud that I feel has never gotten the recognition he deserves. All I ever hear about him is how tough and sound his foals are and with the problems in out industry I feel studs who sire soundness and durability should be given more attention:)