Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance : Curlin

Must Win for Curlin

cdawahare — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 10:06:00 GMT

By Alan Mann, Left at the Gate

I know that Patrick would like to see Curlin disappear. That seems like wishful thinking to me. I believe that Curlin will win the Classic. Actually, he has to win. Forget the Euro horses just for a moment....and this is a field that the champ should handle without too much of a problem in my opinion. I say that even though five of those runners are Grade 1 stakes winners, and despite my belief that the defending Horse of the Year is not quite as dominant as he was before he went to Dubai. (And I'm still a bit bugged out over how slow he finished in the Woodward.)

Nonetheless, if Curlin runs poorly against the US entries at least, it could only be because he doesn't handle the Pro-Ride. Go Between was a Grade 2 turf horse at best before discovering synthetics in California; and even there, he hasn't run that fast. Tiago closed very well in the Goodwood, but has a record of 4-0-0-0 at this distance. Besides, he's out because I picked him in the Classic last year and have a rule about losing with the same horse two years in a row. Student Council had his biggest win on the Poly at Del Mar, but I get the feeling he prefers the real stuff. Colonel John came home in 25 4/5 to win the Travers over Mambo in Seattle, who was outclassed by the champ in the JCGC. And Casino Drive? The thought of a horse with his lack of experience standing in the winner's circle for the Classic is kinda like....well, you know.

Nothing really good would come out of Curlin getting beat by these (though you may disagree if you're amongst those dead set against synthetic tracks). It could cast doubt upon the results of other races and would turn full attention to the decision to run at Santa Anita again next year, a potentially rancorous discussion that would go on for many months. And it would be an ugly mark on a set of past performance lines that currently read like a work of art.

Now, as far as those Euro invaders go, I believe that it would seem more acceptable should Curlin run well and lose to one of those, laden with class as they are. However, all three face what I see as big question marks even aside from the surface issue and the unfamiliar style and surroundings. I don't like Duke of Marmalade, who ran less than three weeks ago in the Arc, his sixth Grade 1 in less than five months, and his first loss of the year. Raven's Pass (Elusive Quality) has had an extra week of rest, and actually seems to be thriving and improving with the steady work - seven races since April 17. He finally defeated Henrythenavigator in his last after failing to do so the prior three times they met. Neither of those have been more than a mile however. This is a major stretchout at any level, especially so here, and even for horses who are bred to go on. Based on their dosage and Tomlinson numbers at least, Henrythenavigator is more likely to stay. He's by Kingmambo, out of a stakes winning mare by Sadlers Wells. However, the dam got that stakes win in a sprint, as has her full sisters Listen and Sequoyah; and Henrythenavigator's full sister Queen Cleopatra was a stakes winner at a mile. So I don't think it's certain by any means that he'll negotiate the distance based on his breeding, though I consider him to be the most likely winner of the three.

And then there is, of course, the fact that the Euros will be racing on something other than turf for the first time. For Curlin, Pro-Ride is also a strange surface. But the champ has already shown the versatility to run second in a Grade 1 race in his first (and only) race on turf, a surface which he didn't seem to relish at all.

Picks: Curlin, Henrythenavigator, Tiago

- Well worth reading is a somewhat different, and far more close-up view of the European horses from Gary West in his West Points blog.

What If There Was No Curlin?

cdawahare — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 17:19:00 GMT

By Patrick Patten, Handride

Look, I'm on the fence too. I think Curlin is a horse for the decade: An absolute monster who has proven his mettle on more than one continent. He is a horse whose races will be watched years from now, both wins and losses. HOWEVER, I don't believe he's a lock in the Breeders' Cup Classic, so instead of trying to come up with an excuse I'll just pretend he's not in the race and let reality provide the need or non-need of an excuse. He's not a speedster so he wouldn't affect the pace of the race anyways.

What is the pace of this race? I'm guessing Smooth Air and Fairbanks play a game of "You take it. No you take it. By all means you take it." Colonel John, Raven's Pass, and maybe Go Between should occupy the second flight. I'm imagining a pretty bunched up group with not a lot of pace. Now, all the jockeys are probably thinking the same thing, so look for a surprise horse to try and steal away early or entering the final turn.

We all know that the track has made it a little easier on the early speed types, but with none in here I'm looking for a horse who might make the middle move and keep that pace going. (Remember we're pretending Curlin, who fits that bill perfectly, isn't in the race). Raven's Pass interests me when I read his trip comments. He's rated, led throughout, sustained his run over 1f, and gets the hands of Dettori - sounds pretty enticing. In fact, both Duke of Marmalade and Henrythenavigator have some good things going for them, but I'm not betting an all Euro trifecta (famous last words?). Duke might have peaked a while back and the Arc was a sign for a horse going downhill, and Henry might have the same case of being tired. So, I'm left with the Americans who have nice middle moves. I've seen Smooth Air do it, and while that's a bomb of a pick, I feel good that he'll outrun his odds. Go Between is on the rail, which has been a death sentence recently at Oak Tree, but Gomez is the best jockey in the country and I'm sure he could get a donkey home in any race.

If there was no Curlin:

Top Pick: Raven's Pass

Minor Awards: Smooth Air, Go Between, Tiago

Horses Americans Should Know: Raven's Pass

cdawahare — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 13:16:00 GMT

By Lisa Grimm, Superfectablog

With the uproar over Big Brown's retirement, the confirmation that Curlin will be defending his title and the news that both Henrythenavigator and Duke of Marmalade will be contesting the Breeders' Cup Classic, one strong contender has been overlooked: Raven's Pass. Indeed, given his finishes behind Henrythenavigator at the mile distance throughout the season, the Classic seemed a far-fetched idea:

Few would have countenanced the Classic for Raven's Pass earlier in the season, when he was ridden as a doubtful stayer even over a mile. Certainly his pedigree offers no guarantees for the extra two furlongs, but his sire, Elusive Quality, does offer one for the surface. His progeny seem to handle anything from ricefields to broken glass.

But given his win in the QEII stakes in which he finally got the jump on arch-rival Henrythenavigator, trainer John Gosden felt that things were finally falling into place for Raven's Pass. In any event, it will be something of a homecoming for the KY-bred colt, who is out of Ascutney, winner of the Miesque Stakes. It would seem the breeding to Elusive Quality has been considered a success; she is in foal to the stallion again. Trainer Gosden also has an American connection; he conditioned Royal Heroine during her American campaign in which she won the Hollywood Derby and the first Breeders' Cup Mile. Raven's Pass has something else going for him come Classic day: he'll be ridden by Frankie Dettori, who knows how to win a Breeders' Cup race (or seven). While the distance will be a question and the surface will be new, Raven's Pass should not be discounted. In his eleven lifetime starts, he's been out of the money only once - it's a record well worth considering.

Other horses covered in this series so far are Montmartre, Yeats, Zarkava, Soviet Song and Makybe Diva.